Business Indicators, Australia methodology

The Quarterly Business Indicators Survey, like most ABS economic collections, takes its frame from employing and non-employing units on the ABSBR which is primarily based on ABN registrations to the ABR, which is managed by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO). The frame is updated quarterly to take account of new businesses and changes in the characteristics of businesses, such as industry and size.

Businesses are removed from the frame when their ABN has been cancelled by the ATO. This may occur when the business requests for its ABN to be cancelled or otherwise has not remitted either Income Tax Withholding, or Goods and Services Tax (GST), for the previous five quarters.

The statistics in this publication exclude micro non-employing businesses. Though there are a substantial number of these businesses, it is expected that they would not contribute significantly to the estimates, although the impact would vary from industry to industry.

The survey also excludes public sector businesses (i.e. all departments, authorities and other organisations owned and controlled by Commonwealth, State and Local Government) and the following industries which come under the scope of other ABS publications: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; General Government; Life Insurance; Superannuation Funds; and Private households employing staff.

Inventories data are not collected from businesses with fewer than 20 employees, as smaller businesses generally have difficulty in providing accurate quarterly information on the level of their inventories. Estimates for these businesses are derived by applying sales information to an estimated inventories to sales ratio.

Profits data are not collected from employing businesses with fewer than 20 employees. Estimates for these businesses are derived by applying sales information to an estimated profits to sales ratio.

The industries included in this publication are classified according to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), 2006. The data items collected vary from industry to industry and are displayed in the following table:

In the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey, the statistical unit used to represent businesses, and for which statistics are reported, is the ABN unit in most cases. The ABN unit is the business unit which has registered for an ABN, and thus appears on the ATO administered ABR. This unit is suitable for ABS statistical needs when the business is simple in structure.

For more significant and diverse businesses where the ABN unit is not suitable for ABS statistical needs, the statistical unit used is the Type of Activity Unit (TAU). A TAU is comprised of one or more business entities, sub-entities or branches of a business entity within an Enterprise Group that can report production and employment data for similar economic activities. When a minimum set of data items is available, a TAU is created which covers all the operations within an industry subdivision (and the TAU is classified to the relevant subdivision of the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC)). Where a business cannot supply adequate data for each industry, a TAU is formed which contains activity in more than one industry subdivision and the TAU is classified to the predominant ANZSIC subdivision. The businesses that contribute to the statistics in this publication are classified:

• by institutional sector, in accordance with the Standard Institutional Sector Classification of Australia (SISCA), which is detailed in Standard Economic Sector Classifications of Australia (SESCA).
• by industry, in accordance with the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), 2006.

The ANZSIC has been developed for use in both countries for the production and analysis of industry statistics. For more information, please refer to Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), 2006.

In order to classify data by industry, each statistical unit (as defined above) is classified to the ANZSIC industry in which it mainly operates.

The survey is conducted by web form on a quarterly basis. It is based on a random sample of units which is stratified by industry, state/territory and number of employees. The sample size was reduced from around 16,200 businesses to around 12,750 businesses in the March quarter 2024.

Respondents are asked to provide data on the same basis as their own management accounts. Where a selected unit does not respond in a given survey period, a value is estimated. If data are subsequently provided, the estimated value is replaced with the reported data. Data are edited at both individual unit level and aggregate level. In general, aggregates are calculated using the ‘composite regression estimation' (CRE) method, which is further explained in Methodological News, March Quarter 2024. The ‘general regression estimation’ method was used in place of the CRE method for the March quarter 2024 only, as this is a more appropriate method when the sample composition changes significantly. The CRE method has been used from June quarter 2024 onwards. 

Surveys are conducted with respect to each quarter of the financial year. Returns are completed during the eight or nine week period after the end of the quarter to which survey data relate e.g. December quarter survey returns are completed during January and February.

The publication produces quarterly movement (percentage change from previous quarter) and level estimates for sales of goods and services, wages and salaries, company profits, and the book value of inventories. These are presented through original, seasonally adjusted and trend series, at the industry and state level. A limited number of ratios are also published at the industry level.

An explanation of seasonal and trend measures with regards to the Business Indicators publication can be found in the 'Seasonal adjustment' and 'Trend estimates' subsections of 'Processing the data' section below.

The data collected in this publication are also used in the compilation of the quarterly estimates of the Australian National Accounts as well as in the formulation of public and private sector decision making. An explanation of how Business Indicators estimates contribute to the Australian National Accounts can be found in Australian System of National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods. However, there are some differences between the statistics in this publication and the corresponding statistics in the quarterly Australian National Accounts which are outlined in the 'Comparability with National Accounts and other ABS estimates' subsection in the Data release section below.

The 'Processing the data' and 'Data release' sections below are good sources for information about the structure, scope, methodology and different measures used in the survey. More detail on the changes that were made to the publication in 2009 can be found in Information Paper: Changes to Business Indicators Statistics.

The quarterly original estimates in this publication are affected in varying degrees by seasonal influences. The seasonal adjustment process estimates and removes the effects of normal seasonal variations from the original estimates so that the effects of other influences can be more clearly recognised.

In the seasonal adjustment process, account has been taken of normal seasonal factors (e.g. increase in retail sales due to the Christmas period) to produce the seasonally adjusted estimates. Particular care should be taken in interpreting quarterly movements in the seasonally adjusted estimates because seasonal adjustment does not remove the effect of irregular or non-seasonal influences (e.g. change in interest rates) and reflects the sampling and other errors to which the original estimates are subject.

In this publication, estimates that are seasonally adjusted are produced by the concurrent seasonal adjustment method which takes account of the latest available original estimates. This method improves the estimation of seasonal factors, and therefore, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for the current and previous quarters. As a result of this method, revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be observed for recent periods. In general, a detailed seasonal review is conducted annually.

However, during the period of disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, forward factor seasonal adjustment was used temporarily. An Extraordinary Annual Seasonal Review (EASR) was completed prior to the March quarter 2024 release to assess each series still on forward factors individually and determine how each observation from the previous year should be treated for estimation of the seasonal factors at the current end of the series. This process ensured that disruption to series caused by COVID-19 does not unduly affect estimates of the seasonal factors.

For series previously on forward factors and then changed back to the concurrent method, revisions to the seasonally adjusted series were larger than the revisions historically observed each quarter when concurrent adjustment was used. Series previously on forward factors used static seasonal factor estimates for the previous year prior to March quarter 2024, and the review updated these seasonal factor estimates by incorporating relevant information from the previous year's observations. When concurrent adjustment is used, revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates will typically be smaller because seasonal factor estimates are updated quarterly on the basis of the addition of one extra data point. During the EASR, a decision was made about the future use of forward factors/concurrent adjustment. The forward factors method will not be continued from March quarter 2024 onwards unless required; in that case, new forward factors would need to be calculated.

The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. The Quarterly Business Indicators Survey uses ARIMA modelling where appropriate for individual time series. The ARIMA model is assessed as part of the annual reanalysis and following the 2024 annual reanalysis, the majority of the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey eligible series use an ARIMA model.

The trend estimates attempt to measure underlying behaviour in business activity. These measurements have been significantly affected by changes to regular patterns in business activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the degree of disruption caused by COVID-19, the ABS will not publish trend estimates for all series from March quarter 2020 to September quarter 2022 (inclusive), as estimates throughout the pandemic period are likely to be misleading. However, the underlying trend in business activity can be accurately measured from December quarter 2022 as the impact of COVID-19 is no longer considered significant. 

The trend estimates are derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted estimates. The 7-term Henderson moving average is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the moving average are applied. The asymmetric moving average has been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series and enable trend estimates for recent quarters to be produced. Estimates of the trend will be improved at the current end of the time series as additional observations become available. This improvement is due to the combined effect of the concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology and the application of different asymmetric moving averages for the most recent three quarters. As a result of the improvement, revisions to the trend estimates will generally be observed for the most recent three quarters. ABS research shows that about 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when the original estimate is available for the next quarter. There may also be revisions because of changes in the original estimates. As a result of these revisions, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will also be revised. For further information, refer to Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series - Monitoring Trends.

The survey frames and samples are revised each quarter to ensure that they remain representative of the survey population. The timing for creating each quarter’s survey frame is consistent with that of other ABS business surveys. This provides for greater consistency when comparing data across surveys.

Additionally, with these revisions to the sample, some of the units from the sampled sector are rotated out of the survey and are replaced by others, to spread the reporting workload equitably.

Estimates provided in this publication are subject to non-sampling and sampling error. The most common way of quantifying sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate. This is discussed in the following three sections below.

Estimates that have an estimated relative standard error (RSE) between 10% and 25% are annotated with the symbol '^'. These estimates should be used with caution as they are subject to sampling variability too high for some purposes. Estimates with an RSE between 25% and 50% are annotated with the symbol '*', indicating that the estimate should be used with caution as it is subject to sampling variability too high for most practical purposes. Estimates with an RSE greater than 50% are annotated with the symbol '**' indicating that the sampling variability causes the estimates to be considered too unreliable for general use. These annotations have only been applied to estimates from the March quarter 2009.

Non-sampling errors may arise as a result of errors in the reporting, recording or processing of the data and can occur even if there is a complete enumeration of the population. These errors can be introduced through inadequacies in the questionnaire, treatment of non-response, inaccurate reporting by respondents, errors in the application of survey procedures, incorrect recording of answers, and errors in data entry and processing. Inventories data for businesses with fewer than 20 employees are derived and could therefore be subject to error (although this error is estimated to be less than the sampling and non-sampling error resulting from directly collecting this data).

Estimates for the latest quarter presented in this publication may be revised within the next issue. In the 'Seasonal adjustment' and 'Trend estimates' subsections above, it notes that seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also subject to revision as additional data becomes available and is revised.

It is difficult to measure the size of non-sampling errors. However, every effort is made in the design of the survey and development of survey procedures to minimise their effects.

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Given that the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. In calculating the standard error for the statistics in this publication, the ABS prefers to produce a smoothed standard error for the major published aggregates. This approach accounts for the variability in standard error estimates for quarterly statistics. The estimated standard error is an indication of the sampling error for the current published series. Standard errors are based on the data in the currently published quarter.

To illustrate, let us say that the published level estimate for company profits before income tax is $8,900m and the calculated standard error in this case is $200m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $8,900m. For instance, the standard error of $200m indicates that:

• There are approximately 2 chances in 3 that the real value falls within the range $8,700m to $9,100m ($8,900m ± $200m).
• There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the ranges $8,500m and $9,300m ($8,900m ± $400m).
• The true value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following tables show the standard errors for national and state quarterly level estimates based upon the data in the current quarter.

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate. Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for inventories is $90,000m, and the next quarter the published level estimate is $92,000m. In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $850m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of +$2,000m. For instance, the standard error of $850m indicates that:

• There are approximately 2 chances in 3 that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range $1,150m to $2,850m ($2,000m ±$850m).
• There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $300m to $3,700m ($2,000m ± $1,700m).

The following table shows the standard errors for national quarterly movement estimates based upon the data in the current quarter.

Adjustments are included in the estimates to allow for lags in processing new businesses to the ABR. The following table shows the adjustments made to the current quarter's original estimates in current price terms:

The estimates presented in this publication are partial indicators used in the compilation of the quarterly National Accounts. The movements in the Business Indicators estimates will not always be the same as the movements in the comparable national accounts series but they should be reasonably consistent after taking account of differences in concepts, scope and methodology described under the 'Comparability with National Accounts and other ABS estimates' subsection in the Data release section below. If after taking account of these differences, there are concerns about data quality and coherence, the national accounts area provides feedback to the survey area. This process may result in adjustments being applied to the Business Indicators estimates prior to release in this publication. The objective use of the national accounts framework to provide data coherence across all ABS economic statistics ensures that a common understanding of recent economic developments is presented.

The Business Indicators publication is compiled using data from three consecutive months (e.g. January, February, and March) with the release of this information generally occurring on the first Monday of the third month following the end of the reference quarter (e.g. data for the June quarter will be released on the first Monday in September).

This publication includes estimates of sales of goods and services, by industry, and by state/territory, but estimates of national total sales of goods and services are not published. Total sales of goods and services is not an adequate indicator of the performance of the Australian economy as it includes duplication; for example, goods sold by retailers may also be included in goods sold by wholesalers in the same period. However, this publication does include total sales of goods and services by state/territory, as it is considered that there may be interest in this item as a measure of relative activity. This data should be used with caution given the potential for the data to include duplication across industries.

Estimates of gross operating profits are compiled by deducting estimates of items that do not involve the production of goods and services from estimates of profits before income tax. These items include: 

• Depreciation
• Net interest paid
• Net foreign exchange gains/losses
• Unrealised gains/losses on the revaluation of assets. 

These items are considered out of scope of the national accounts item gross operating surplus.

The Quarterly Business Indicators Survey collects the following information only for businesses employing 20 or more persons:

• Income items (other than sales of goods and services)
• Expense items (other than labour costs)
• Profits.

The introduction of the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey from March quarter 2001 included the collection of private sector wages and salaries by industry.

From September quarter 2020 onwards, direct collection of wages for a subset of units in ANZSIC Subdivision 62 (Finance) from the ABS Quarterly Business Indicators Survey ceased. Data is now being collected on behalf of the ABS by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) as part of the Economic Financial Statistics (EFS) collection. This change has helped to reduce respondent burden for entities that are also required to report to APRA and has streamlined reporting for the Finance industry.

The chain volume measures appearing in this publication are annually reweighted chain Laspeyres indexes referenced to current price values in the chosen reference year (currently 2022-23). The current price values may be thought of as being the product of a price and quantity. The value in chain volume terms can be derived by linking together movements in volumes, calculated using the average prices of the previous financial year and applying compound movements to the current price estimates of the reference year. Each year’s quarter-to-quarter growth rates in the chain volume series are based on the prices of the previous financial year, except for those quarters of the latest incomplete year which are based upon the second most recent financial year. Quarterly chain volume estimates are benchmarked to annual chain volume estimates, so that the quarterly estimates for a financial year sum to the corresponding annual estimate.

With each release of the September quarter issue of this publication, a new base year is introduced, and the reference year is advanced one year to coincide with it. This means that with the release of the September quarter 2024 issue of this publication, the chain volume measures for 2023-24 will have 2022-23 (the previous financial year) as their base year rather than 2021-22, and the reference year is 2022-23. A change in the reference year changes levels but not growth rates for all periods. A change in the base year can result in revisions, small in most cases, to growth rates for the last year.

Chain volume measures are not generally additive. In other words, component chain volume measures do not, in general, sum to a total in the way original current price components do. For inventories and sales data, this means that the chain volume estimates for industry groups will not add to the total for Australia. In order to minimise the impact of this, the ABS uses the latest base year as the reference year. By adopting this approach, additivity does exist for the quarters following the reference year and non-additivity is relatively small for the quarters in the reference year and those immediately preceding it. For further information on chain volume measures, refer to Information Paper: Introduction of Chain Volume Measures in the Australian National Accounts.

The ABS is focused on and committed to accuracy in all the data it releases. However, like most collections conducted by the ABS, the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey is subject to both sampling and non-sampling errors.

The survey is based on a random sample of approximately 12,750 units which is stratified by industry, state/territory and number of employees. All large private sector businesses and other statistically significant units, such as joint venture partners, are included in the sample. However, since the entire population of in-scope private businesses in Australia (approximately 1,000,000 units) is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to some degree of sampling error, which can be quantified by calculating the RSE of the estimates.

Annotations are used to identify all published estimates that have an estimated RSE of greater than 10%, and usage recommendations for such estimates can be found in the 'Reliability of the estimates' subsection of Processing the data section above.

Revisions to previous quarters' data can take place from time to time. This includes replacement of previously imputed data, which is a normal occurrence. Revisions can arise due to a change in the reference year for chain volume estimates, resulting in changes to levels but not growth rates for all periods. A change in the base year can also result in revisions (small in most cases) to growth rates for the last year.

Measures are also in place to account for the four month lag between frame creation and the end of the reference period (i.e. the time between selecting businesses to be surveyed and actually surveying them). Business provisions constitute upward adjustments to the estimates to allow for lags in processing new businesses onto the ABR and thereby onto the frame.

The data collected in the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey are used in the compilation of the quarterly estimates of the Australian National Accounts. Inventories data are used to compile estimates of the change in book value of non-farm inventories. Estimates of sales of goods and services are used to help derive quarterly chain volume measures of gross value added for selected industries. Company gross operating profits data are used to compile estimates of gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations. From March quarter 2002, estimates of wages and salaries are being used to compile estimates for compensation of private sector employees. For further details please refer to Australian System of National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods.

However, the statistics in this publication will differ from corresponding statistics in the quarterly Australian National Accounts for the following reasons:

• The national accounts estimates are benchmarked to annual supply and use tables which are based on annual Economy Wide Survey and taxation data.
• The national accounts estimates include estimates for businesses classified to industries not in scope of the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey.
• The national accounts estimates for gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations are after deduction of the inventory valuation adjustment which measures the portion of income attributable to holding gains or losses resulting from inventory valuation practices.
• The processes used to seasonally adjust national accounts estimates may differ from those used for the seasonally adjusted estimates in this publication.

The estimates for sales of goods and services by Retail trade in this publication will differ from turnover estimates included in Retail Trade, Australia. The latter publication presents monthly estimates of the value of turnover of retail businesses, and is sourced from the Retail Business Survey. Estimates for sales of goods and services in this publication exclude GST, while turnover collected in the Retail Business Survey includes GST. In addition, the Retail Business Survey includes some businesses classified to ANZSIC divisions other than the Retail trade division, and includes retail establishments associated with management units that are not classified to the Retail trade division. The use of different samples in the Retail Business Survey and Quarterly Business Indicators Survey will also contribute to differences. 

The estimates for sales of goods and services by industry in this publication will also differ from turnover estimates in the Monthly Business Turnover Indicator. The Monthly Business Turnover Indicator is derived from ATO Business Activity Statements (BAS) turnover data from monthly BAS remitters and differs from Business Indicators, Australia in terms of scope and coverage. Monthly BAS reporting for the Monthly Business Turnover Indicator covers businesses with annual GST turnover of $20 million or more and a proportion of smaller businesses that report monthly on a voluntary basis. The estimates of sales and service income in Business Indicators, Australia are compiled from the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey which is based on a random sample of approximately 12,750 businesses. For further information, please refer to Table 3: Summary of differences between Monthly Business Turnover Indicator and Quarterly Business Indicator Survey sales in the Monthly Business Turnover Indicator methodology. 

• Australian System of National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods
• Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product
• Australian Industry
• Information Paper: Introduction of Chain Volume Measures in the Australian National Accounts
• Information Paper: Improvements to Australian Bureau of Statistics Quarterly Business Indicators
• Monthly Business Turnover Indicator
• Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia
• Retail Trade, Australia

ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated; without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.

The results of these statistics are based, in part, on ABR data supplied by the Registrar to the ABS under A New Tax System (Australian Business Number) Act 1999 and tax data supplied by the ATO to the ABS under the Taxation Administration Act 1953. These require that such data is only used for the purpose of carrying out functions of the ABS. No individual information collected under the Census and Statistics Act 1905 is provided back to the Registrar or the ATO for administrative or regulatory purposes. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the data for statistical purposes, and is not related to the ability of the data to support the ABR or ATO’s core operational requirements. Legislative requirements to ensure privacy and secrecy of this data have been followed. Only people authorised under the Australian Bureau of Statistics Act 1975 have been allowed to view data about any particular firm in conducting these analyses. In accordance with the Census and Statistics Act 1905, results have been confidentialised to ensure that they are not likely to enable identification of a particular person or organisation.

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