June key figures
|Mar Qtr 20 to Jun Qtr 20||Jun Qtr 19 to Jun Qtr 20|
|Sales of goods and services (Chain volume measures)|
|Inventories (Chain volume measures)|
|Company gross operating profits|
|Wages and salaries|
[["Jun 2017","Sep 2017","Dec 2017","Mar 2018","Jun 2018","Sep 2018","Dec 2018","Mar 2019","Jun 2019","Sep 2019","Dec 2019","Mar 2020","Jun 2020"],[[-0.40000000000000002],[0.10000000000000001],[0.20000000000000001],[0.29999999999999999],[1.2],,[-0.40000000000000002],[0.69999999999999996],[-0.59999999999999998],[-0.5],[0.10000000000000001],[-1.3999999999999999],[-3]]]
Trend estimates have been suspended
[["Jun 2017","Sep 2017","Dec 2017","Mar 2018","Jun 2018","Sep 2018","Dec 2018","Mar 2019","Jun 2019","Sep 2019","Dec 2019","Mar 2020","Jun 2020"],[[-3.7999999999999998],[0.69999999999999996],[5.0999999999999996],[4.2999999999999998],[0.59999999999999998],[1.7],[3.6000000000000001],,[5.2000000000000002],[-1.1000000000000001],[-3.5],[1.3999999999999999],]]
Trend estimates have been suspended
June key points
Chain volume estimates
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for inventories fell 3.0% in the June quarter 2020.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for Manufacturing sales of goods and services fell 8.6% this quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for Wholesale trade sales of goods and services fell 6.7%.
Current prices estimates
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits rose 15.0% in the June quarter 2020 and has been impacted by Government subsidies (further information below).
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for wages and salaries fell 3.3%.
Comparison between company gross operating profits and gross operating surplus
Valuation changes have had an impact on the value of inventories held by Australian businesses this quarter. An Inventories Valuation Adjustment (IVA) is applied in the calculation of the Gross Operating Surplus of private non-financial corporations (GOS) estimate in the Australian National Accounts. The IVA for the June quarter 2020 is -$1,546m, which is $2,083m lower than the March quarter 2020 IVA of $537m.
No adjustment is made to the Company Gross Operating Profits (CGOP) estimate in this publication and, as a result, users should exercise caution when comparing CGOP and GOS. It should be noted that there are other differences between the two series. In particular, changes are made to GOS when annual benchmarks are applied and slightly different seasonal factors apply to the two series. Given this, while CGOP movements are an appropriate indicator for GOS, the two series will not have equivalent seasonally adjusted movements from quarter to quarter.
Impact of government subsidies on CGOP
Estimates of Company Gross Operating Profits for the June quarter 2020 are impacted by the receipt of government subsidies. These subsidies are included as income in the compilation of CGOP but are not separately published in this release. Additional information on subsidy income received by industry will be published in the Australian National Accounts on Wednesday 2 September 2020.
Suspension of trend series
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in business activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by changes to regular patterns in spending that will occur during this time, as certain businesses are restricted from trading for example. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this irregular event, they would likely provide a misleading view of underlying business activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in business activity can be accurately estimated. The Business Indicators trend series have therefore been suspended and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in business activity.
Update to seasonal adjustment methods
Business Indicators Australia uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual real-world events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method.
From March quarter 2020 for selected series, seasonal factors have been calculated using data up to and including December quarter 2019, then projected from March quarter 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted for industries affected by COVID-19 impacts. Switching to the forward factor method may result in revisions in seasonal data for future quarters when the concurrent seasonal adjustment method is reinstated.