8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Mar 2020
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/05/2020
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Quarterly Turnover, in volume terms - seasonally adjusted, percentage terms
MARCH KEY POINTS
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
There are no revisions to the original estimates. This issue includes updated online retail turnover estimates for the March 2020 reference month and updated per capita turnover for the March quarter 2020. The estimates are provided and explained in the appendix section of this publication.
CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19) IN MARCH
The World Health Organisation (WHO) commenced daily situation reports of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on 21 January 2020 and identified it as an international health emergency on 30 January. From 1 February, the Australian Government placed travel restrictions on those travelling to Australia from mainland China. These restrictions were progressively increased until they applied to all non-residents. In March, regulations to encourage social distancing saw further impacts on the ability of businesses to trade as normal. This included restrictions on dining-in at restaurants and restrictions on the number of people that could be in a shop at a particular time.
COVID-19 saw a minor impact on data collection activities for the March 2020 reference month. Individual retail businesses reported a number of impacts attributed to COVID-19.
SUSPENSION OF TREND SERIES
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in retail activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by changes to regular patterns in retail spending that will occur during this time, as certain businesses are restricted from trading for example. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this irregular event, they would likely provide a misleading view of underlying retail activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in retail activity can be accurately estimated. The retail trend series has therefore been suspended as at February 2020. The trend series will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in retail.
UPDATE TO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT METHODS
Retail Trade uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual real-world events, such as COVID-19, can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March 2020, seasonal factors will be calculated using data up to and including February 2020, then projected from March 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
TIME SERIES DATA
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