Future cessation of the Retail Business Survey and Retail Trade Publication

Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator (MHSI) will enable the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to stop the Retail Trade publication in August 2025, providing users with a more comprehensive view on household consumption and eliminating the need for businesses to respond to the Retail Business Survey.

Each year the ABS sets strategic priorities, in collaboration with our partners and stakeholders and in response to the external operating environment. These priorities inform our employees and stakeholders of the highest priority areas of endeavour for the ABS.

For 2023-24, two of the ABS’ strategic priorities are to Generate timely new insights and to Reduce burden on data providers[1]. In this context, and following consultation with key users, the ABS intends to cease the monthly Retail Trade Publication while also developing, and enhancing, timely insights about household consumption and business turnover.

[1] Activities | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

Timely and accurate information on consumer behaviour is important for economic management. The Retail Business Survey (RBS) has been an important indicator of turnover by retail businesses which predominately sell to households. The survey also contributes around 33% to the Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) component of Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure Method). However, the RBS has become less useful over time. Retail Trade coverage has fallen from 56.2% of household consumption in 1959-60 to 33.2% in 2022-23. This is due to shifts in consumer behaviour, particularly changes in the proportion households spend on goods relative to services.

For the RBS, the ABS directly collects data through telephone interviews or paper forms for approximately 3,000 business each month, which places reporting burden on businesses.  Whilst these approaches to data collection have served Australia and the ABS well over the years, in more recent times – particularly during and following the COVID 19 pandemic – it has become more challenging and costly to secure survey responses from businesses. At the same time, new data sources are available – from both the private and public sectors – from which official statistics can be produced.

Noting the ABS operating environment, the availability of new data sources; the challenges collecting data directly from business; and the reporting burden placed on businesses; the ABS intends to cease the Retail Business Survey and the Retail Trade Publication after the June 2025 reference period (last release expected August 2025). Over the last year the ABS has consulted with key users about ceasing the Retail Trade Publication, as well as how the Monthly Household Spending Indicator and Monthly Business Turnover Indicator can inform users about changes in household spending and business turnover in lieu of Retail Trade.

The ABS will continue to keep users informed of expected changes and how best to transition from the Retail Trade statistics to the Monthly Household Spending and Monthly Business Turnover Indicators.

In 2021, the ABS began using more public and private sector administrative data by publishing experimental estimates of MHSI and MBTI. Due to the contemporary nature of these data sources, the ABS can collect, compile, and publish data on household spending and business turnover frequently. This approach minimises the reporting burden on the business community: these indicators have a larger coverage of consumption categories for households relative to Retail Trade, and more closely align conceptually to Household Final Consumption Expenditure in the National Accounts.

The ABS has been working with key data users to understand how the MHSI and MBTI can be further enhanced to meet their needs. Feedback from users has identified the following enhancements.

Monthly Household Spending Indicator: 

• Moving to a ‘household consumption’ concept bringing MHSI closer to its predominant use. 
• Seasonally Adjusted Estimates. 
• Current Price Estimates. 
• Quarterly Chain Volume Measures. 

Monthly Business Turnover Indicator: 

• Composite index of the industries in scope. 
• Subdivision estimates in select industries. 

Once in place, these enhancements will ensure the ABS is on track to provide high quality, timely estimates of household spending across a variety of industries and consumption categories. The enhancements are planned for delivery in 2024. Between now and mid-2025 when Retail Trade ceases, the ABS will continue to work with partners and stakeholders to improve these monthly indicators and provide users with suitable timely data to support their needs. 

Since 2021[1], the ABS began exploring data from point-of-sale systems (scanner data) for components of Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) in the quarterly National Accounts. This data was incorporated in the Quarterly National Accounts in the September Quarter 2022[2]. More recently the ABS has explored the use of bank transactions and other administrative data – the data used to compile the MHSI and MBTI – and determined that these data sources are fit for purpose for some components of HFCE compilation.

The ABS intends to commence use of these data sources rather than Retail Trade data in a series of waves in 2024 and 2025. The first wave of data source replacement will occur in the December quarter 2023 Quarterly National Accounts for HFCE category Food and Miscellaneous Goods and Services. Further detail on these changes will be released as part of the September Quarter 2023 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product release on 6 December 2023.

[1] Using scanner data to estimate household consumption, September 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

[2] Improved measurement of household consumption of food in the national accounts | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

• The first wave of data source replacement for HFCE is planned for the December quarter 2023 National Accounts release on 6 March 2024.
• The enhanced MHSI and MBTI methods are planned for delivery prior to the cessation of the Retail Trade publication.
• The Retail Business Survey and Retail Trade Publication will be ceased after the June 2025 reference period.

As we come closer to the cessation of the Retail Business Survey and Retail Trade Publication, the ABS is committed to engaging with data users on how to access the data they require. Data users and partners will continue to be informed of any additional changes moving forward. 

If you have a question about the cessation of the Retail Business Survey, or if you are interested in being part of the conversation about the enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator, Monthly Business Turnover Indicator or Household Final Consumption Expenditure, please email household.spending@abs.gov.au.