|Jun 22 ($m)||Sep 22 ($m)|
|Balance on current account (b)||14,745||-2,278|
|Balance on goods and services (b)||42,281||31,193|
|Net primary income (b)||-26,823||-33,191|
|Capital and financial account||-19,551||7,868|
|International investment position (c)||844,555||861,619|
- Trend series is not published from June quarter 2019.
- Seasonally adjusted estimates at current prices.
- Levels at end of period.
The Current Account balance (seasonally adjusted current price) for September quarter 2022 was a deficit of $2.3b, following 13 consecutive quarters in surplus. The current account balance decreased $17.0b from the June quarter 2022 surplus of $14.7b.
The decrease in the Current Account was driven by both a narrowing of the trade surplus and a widened net primary income deficit.
The Balance on goods and services in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms is expected to detract 0.2 percentage points from the September quarter 2022 GDP quarterly movement, assuming no significant revision to June quarter 2022 estimates of GDP.
The Terms of Trade decreased 6.6% to 110.4, down from 118.2 in June quarter 2022. This is the largest fall in the terms of trade since June quarter 2009, coming off the record high in the previous quarter.
The net primary income deficit widened $6.4 billion to $33.2 billion, driven by strong dividend payments to non-residents on portfolio investment.
Australia's net international investment liability position was $861.6b at September quarter 2022, an increase of $17.1b on the revised June quarter 2022 position of $844.6b.
- Seasonally adjusted estimates at current prices.
COVID-19 in this publication
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour of international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade that will occur during this time. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event, they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from June quarter 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in international trade.
Seasonal adjustment and COVID-19
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events, such as COVID-19, can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March quarter 2020, seasonal factors for series with significant and prolonged impacts from COVID-19 will be calculated using the forward factor method.
The ABS has advised users that it had moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international practice) requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in the seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions.
For more information on interpreting seasonally adjusted estimates of International travel services please see the May 2020 feature article International Travel Services time series which outlines the matter in greater detail.
Changes in this issue
New base year and re-referencing of chain volume estimates and implicit price deflators
A new base year 2020-21 has been introduced into chain volume estimates and implicit price deflators in the September quarter 2022 issue. As a result, the chain volume estimate series and implicit price deflators series will be re-referenced to 2020-21.
Selected international account ratios - Table 23
The updated annual GDP and GNI benchmarks released in the Australian System of National Accounts, 2021-22 on 28 October 2022 will be revised and incorporated into the quarterly national accounts with the September quarter 2022 issue of Australian National Accounts: National Income Expenditure and Product to be released on 7 December 2022. The revised benchmarks will change the level of the quarterly and annual GDP and GNI used in the ratios for table 23 of this publication. As the ratios using the currently available GDP and GNI would be inconsistent with the revised data, they have been suppressed in this issue. Table 23 in the time series spreadsheets released in conjunction with this publication will be updated with the release of the quarterly Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product on 7 December 2022.
Enhancing quarterly Trade in Services statistics
The ABS is enhancing the quarterly international trade in services statistics. Further information on the enhancements and publication changes can be found in the attached article.
A summary of the implications to the current publication are:
- The ABS has made changes to include the most up to date international trade in services data in the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication. These changes mean the quarterly estimates will not equal the sum of the three months that have been published in the International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia publication, however, the quarterly estimates will be of a higher quality.
- From the June 2022 reference quarter, the full suite of quarterly international trade in services data will be available from the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication for the current reference quarter.