|Jun Qtr 2021 ($m)||Sep Qtr 2021 ($m)|
|Balance on current account (b)||22,870||23,886|
|Balance on goods and services (b)||30,810||38,911|
|Net primary income (b)||-6,602||-14,327|
|Capital and financial account||-24,445||-21,835|
|International investment position (c)||898,483||860,149|
(a) Trend series is not published from June Quarter 2019
(b) Seasonally adjusted
(c) Levels at end of period
(a) Seasonally adjusted estimates at current prices.
COVID-19 in this publication
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour of international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade that will occur during this time. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event, they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from June quarter 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in international trade.
Seasonal adjustment and COVID-19
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events, such as COVID-19, can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March quarter 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by COVID-19 will be calculated using data up to and including December quarter 2019, then projected from March quarter 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
The ABS has advised users that it had moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international practice) requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in the seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions.
For more information on interpreting seasonally adjusted estimates of International travel services please see the May 2020 feature article International Travel Services time series which outlines the matter in greater detail.
Changes in this issue
New base year and re-referencing of chain volume estimates and implicit price deflators
A new base year 2019-20 will be introduced into chain volume estimates and implicit price deflators in the September quarter 2021 issue. As a result, the chain volume estimate series and implicit price deflators series will be re-referenced to 2019-20.
Changes to seasonal adjustment method of current price values of: coal, coke and briquettes, metal ores and minerals, and other mineral fuels
As part of an ongoing improvement program within the International Accounts, from the September 2020 release of this publication, independent seasonal adjustment has been be applied when calculating the seasonal patterns for the following export commodities:
- Metal, ores & minerals
- Coal, coke & briquettes
- Other mineral fuels
Independent seasonal adjustment derives separate seasonal adjustment factors for the current price and chain volume measure series. The change was first applied from the September quarter 2019 onwards, and from September quarter 2021, has been applied back to the September quarter 2005 onwards. Previously for these series, seasonal factors derived from the corresponding chain volume measures were used to seasonally adjust the current price value series.
Selected international account ratios - Table 23
The updated annual GDP and GNI benchmarks released in the Australian System of National Accounts, 2020-21 on 29 October 2021 will be revised and incorporated into the quarterly national accounts with the September quarter 2021 issue of Australian National Accounts: National Income Expenditure and Product to be released on 1 December 2021. The revised benchmarks will change the level of the quarterly and annual GDP and GNI used in the ratios for table 23 of this publication. As the ratios using the currently available GDP and GNI would be inconsistent with the revised data, they have been suppressed in this issue. Table 23 in the time series spreadsheets released in conjunction with this publication will be updated with the release of the quarterly Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product on 1 December 2021.
Changes to reporting of derivatives data in September quarter 2021 Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia
From September quarter 2021, the ABS will collect derivative asset and liability activity for banks via the Economic and Financial Statistics Collection (EFS).
The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) collects data from the financial sector (Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) and Registered Financial Corporations (RFCs) on behalf of the ABS and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past few years, APRA, the ABS, the RBA, and the financial sector have been working together to modernise the data collection and develop a new set of forms and related guidance called the EFS collection. The fourth and final phase of the EFS collection collects data on derivative activity.
Derivative asset and derivative liability data are no longer reported by banks to the ABS via the Survey of International Investment. Derivatives data for banks are now collected by APRA on behalf of the ABS.
Enhanced data quality
The derivatives data received via APRA through the EFS collection will enhance data quality for the ABS Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics. For example, it provides:
- enhanced reporting guidance for financial institutions on derivatives data
- updated definitions to align with international standards for compiling economic statistics
The enhanced derivatives data in the quarterly ABS Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics have been back cast to December 2013 using approved ABS methodological techniques. Back casting has had minimal impact on historical net positions.
The derivatives data appear in several estimates in the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication (see Table 1).
|Table no.||Title of table|
|1||Balance of payments, summary: original - quarter|
|2||International investment position: by net foreign equity and net foreign debt - quarter|
|3||Foreign assets and liabilities: by equity and debt - quarter|
|13||Financial account - quarter|
|14||International investment: foreign assets - quarter|
|15||International investment: foreign liabilities - quarter|
|16||Foreign debt levels - quarter|
|17||Gross external debt liabilities: levels - quarter|
|18||Currency and residual maturity of foreign debt - quarter|
|20||Foreign assets and liabilities by industry - quarter|
|23||Selected international accounts ratios: seasonally adjusted - quarter|
|27||International investment: directional principle - quarter|
|28||Summary of revisions - quarter|
|29||International investment position: historical summary - quarter|
|30||Balance of payments, summary: original – financial year|
Australian System of National Accounts historical revisions
This issue incorporates Historical Revisions, including changes to the way travel debits are compiled. Please see article "Australian System of National Accounts historical revisions" for more details.
Changes in forthcoming issues
Annual seasonal re-analysis
The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of goods, services, primary income and secondary income will be revised in the December quarter 2021 issue of this publication as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis. This re-analysis reviews the seasonal and trading day factors in more detail than is possible in the quarterly processing cycle and assesses the appropriateness of any prior corrections.