| Dec Qtr 2020 ($m) | Mar Qtr 2021 ($m) | |
|---|---|---|
| Balance on current account (b) | 16,010 | 18,283 |
| Balance on goods and services (b) | 19,523 | 24,761 |
| Net primary income (b) | -2,985 | -6,048 |
| Capital and financial account | -10,667 | -15,363 |
| International investment position (c) | 949,995 | 874,641 |
(a) Trend series is not published from June Quarter 2019
(b) Seasonally adjusted
(c) Levels at end of period
(a) Seasonally adjusted estimates at current prices.
COVID-19 in this publication
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour of international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade that will occur during this time. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event, they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from June quarter 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in international trade.
Seasonal adjustment and COVID-19
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events, such as COVID-19, can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March quarter 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by COVID-19 will be calculated using data up to and including December quarter 2019, then projected from March quarter 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
The ABS has advised users that it had moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international practice) requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in the seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions.
For more information on interpreting seasonally adjusted estimates of International travel services please see the May 2020 feature article International Travel Services time series which outlines the matter in greater detail.
Changes in this issue
Review of seasonal adjustment factors
International Accounts normally uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, resulting in seasonal factors being re-estimated with each new data point. As communicated in March 2020, where a time series will be exposed (or anticipated to be exposed) to significant and prolonged impacts from COVID-19, fixed forward factors would be adopted.
Further information can be found here:
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/methods-changes-during-covid-19-period
In International Accounts seven series were moved to forward factors:
• Transport – Passenger exports;
• Transport – Other exports;
• Travel exports;
• Other services exports;
• Transport – Passenger imports;
• Travel imports; and
• Other services imports.
As part of International Accounts' Extraordinary Annual Seasonal Adjustment Review (EASR) process, all seasonally adjusted time series have been individually assessed to determine how each observation from the previous year should be treated for estimation of seasonal factors for seasonally adjusting the current end of the series. This process ensures that any disruption to series caused by COVID-19 does not unduly affect estimates of the seasonal factors, and consequently seasonally adjusted revisions are relatively minor.
The outcome of the International Accounts' EASR is that the import and export series of Other services and the export series of Transport – Other will be returned to concurrent seasonal adjustment, while the series related to travel services, passenger transport services, and state services will continue to use the forward factor method. New forward factors have been calculated and will be used from the March quarter 2021 publication.