| Jun Qtr 20 to Sep Qtr 20 | Sep Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 20 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | |||
| Sales of goods and services (Chain volume measures) | ||||
| Manufacturing | ||||
| Trend | na | na | ||
| Seasonally Adjusted | 4.3 | -1.6 | ||
| Wholesale trade | ||||
| Trend | na | na | ||
| Seasonally Adjusted | 3.8 | -1.8 | ||
| Inventories (Chain volume measures) | ||||
| Trend | na | na | ||
| Seasonally Adjusted | -0.5 | -4.6 | ||
| Company gross operating profits | ||||
| Trend | na | na | ||
| Seasonally Adjusted | 3.2 | 18.6 | ||
| Wages and salaries | ||||
| Seasonally Adjusted | 2.4 | 0.4 | ||
*na - not available. Trend estimates have been suspended due to the impacts of COVID-19
Inventories
Trend estimates have been suspended
Company gross operating profits
Trend estimates have been suspended
September key points
Chain volume estimates
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for inventories fell 0.5% in the September quarter 2020.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for Manufacturing sales of goods and services rose 4.3% this quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for Wholesale trade sales of goods and services rose 3.8%.
Current prices estimates
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits rose 3.2%.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for wages and salaries rose 2.4%.
Comparison between company gross operating profits and gross operating surplus
Valuation changes have had an impact on the value of inventories held by Australian businesses this quarter. An Inventories Valuation Adjustment (IVA) is applied in the calculation of the Gross Operating Surplus of private non-financial corporations (GOS) estimate in the Australian National Accounts. The IVA for the September quarter is -$458m which is $1,083 higher than the June quarter 2020 IVA of -$1,541m.
No adjustment is made to the Company Gross Operating Profits (CGOP) estimate in this publication and, as a result, users should exercise caution when comparing CGOP and GOS. It should be noted that there are other differences between the two series. In particular, changes are made to GOS when annual benchmarks are applied and slightly different seasonal factors apply to the two series. Given this, while CGOP movements are an appropriate indicator for GOS, the two series will not have equivalent seasonally adjusted movements from quarter to quarter.
Re-referencing of chain volume estimates
Each September quarter the reference and base year for chain volume estimates for the Business Indicators Survey are updated. A new base, 2018-19, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in minor revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2018-19. Additivity is preserved in the quarters of the reference year and subsequent quarters. Re-referencing affects the level of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.
Impact of government subsidies on CGOP
Estimates of Company Gross Operating Profits for the June and September quarters 2020 are impacted by the receipt of government subsidies. These subsidies are included as income in the compilation of CGOP but are not separately published in this release. Updated information on subsidy income received by industry will be published in the September quarter 2020 release of the Australian National Accounts on Wednesday 2 December 2020.
Suspension of trend series
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in business activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by changes to regular patterns in spending that will occur during this time, as certain businesses are restricted from trading for example. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this irregular event, they would likely provide a misleading view of underlying business activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in business activity can be accurately estimated. The Business Indicators trend series have therefore been suspended and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in business activity.
Update to seasonal adjustment methods
Business Indicators Australia uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual real-world events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method.
From March quarter 2020 for selected series, seasonal factors have been calculated using data up to and including December quarter 2019, then projected from March quarter 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted for industries affected by COVID-19 impacts. Switching to the forward factor method may result in revisions in seasonal data for future quarters when the concurrent seasonal adjustment method is reinstated.
Changes in this issue
From September quarter 2020 onwards, direct collection of wages for a subset of units in ANZSIC Subdivision 62 (Finance) from the ABS Quarterly Business Indicators survey (QBIS) has ceased. Data is now being collected on behalf of the ABS by APRA as part of the Economic Financial Statistics (EFS) collection. This change has helped to reduce respondent burden for entities that are also required to report to APRA and has streamlined reporting for the Finance industry.