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Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia

Quarterly statistics about actual and expected private new capex investment spend on buildings and equipment by industry

Reference period
March 2021
Released
27/05/2021

Key statistics

  • Total new capital expenditure rose by 6.3%
  • Buildings and structures rose by 3.8%
  • Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 9.1%
  • Estimate 2 for 2021-22 is $113,635m. This is 7.9% higher than Estimate 1 for 2021-22
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  Mar Qtr 21Dec Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21Mar Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21
  $m% change% change
Seasonally adjusted(a)   
 Total new capital expenditure

31 494

6.3

0.8

 Buildings and structures

16 193

3.8

-3.4

 Equipment, plant and machinery

15 301

9.1

5.6

a. In volume terms
 

Update to seasonal adjustment methods

New Capital Expenditure uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual real-world events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method.

From September quarter 2020 for selected series, seasonal factors were calculated using data up to and including March quarter 2020, then projected from June quarter 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted for industries affected by COVID-19 impacts. Switching to the forward factor method may result in revisions in seasonal data for future quarters when the concurrent seasonal adjustment method is reinstated.

Suspension of trend series

The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in business activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by changes to regular patterns in spending that will occur during this time, as certain businesses are restricted from trading for example. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this irregular event, they would likely provide a misleading view of underlying business activity.

It may be some time before the underlying trend in business activity can be accurately estimated. The New Capital Expenditure trend series have therefore been suspended and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in business activity.

New capital expenditure in seasonally adjusted volume terms

Total capital expenditure

  • Total new capital expenditure rose 6.3% in the March quarter 2021
     
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Buildings and structures

  • Buildings and structures rose 3.8% in the March quarter 2021
     
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Equipment and machinery

  • Equipment, plant and machinery rose 9.1% in the March quarter 2021
     
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Mining and non-mining

  • Mining rose 4.1% in the March quarter 2021
  • Non-mining rose 7.1% in the March quarter 2021
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Financial years at current prices

Timing and composition

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year.

The timing and composition of these estimates are as follows:

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Estimate Based on data reported at:COMPOSITION OF ESTIMATE
Data on long-term expected expenditureData on Short-term expected expenditureData on actual expenditure
1.Jan-Feb, 5-6 months before period begins12 monthsNilNil
2.Apr-May, 2-3 months before period begins12 monthsNilNil
3.Jul-Aug, at beginning of period6 months6 monthsNil
4.Oct-Nov, 3-4 months into period6 months3 months3 months
5.Jan-Feb, 6-7 months into periodNil6 months6 months
6.Apr-May, 9-10 months into periodNil3 months9 months
7.Jul-Aug, at end of periodNilNil12 months

 

 

Total capital expenditure

  • Estimate 6 for 2020-21 is $124,042m
  • This is 2.2% higher than Estimate 5 for 2020-21
  • Estimate 2 for 2021-22 is $113,635m
  • This is 7.9% higher than Estimate 1 for 2021-22
     
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Buildings and structures

  • Estimate 6 for 2020-21 is $66,875m
  • This is 1.2% lower than Estimate 5 for 2020-21
  • Estimate 2 for 2021-22 is $69,413m
  • This is 5.0% higher than Estimate 1 for 2021-22
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Equipment, plant and machinery

  • Estimate 6 for 2020-21 is $57,167m
  • This is 6.4% higher than Estimate 5 for 2020-21
  • Estimate 2 for 2021-22 is $44,222m
  • This is 13.0% higher than Estimate 1 for 2021-22
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Mining

  • Estimate 6 for 2020-21 is $35,925m
  • This is 0.9% lower than Estimate 5 for 2020-21
  • Estimate 2 for 2021-22 is $36,942m
  • This is 1.5% higher than Estimate 1 for 2021-22
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Non-mining

  • Estimate 6 for 2020-21 is $88,117m
  • This is 3.5% higher than Estimate 5 for 2020-21
  • Estimate 2 for 2021-22 is $76,694m
  • This is 11.3% higher than Estimate 1 for 2021-22
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Detailed industry movements by asset type

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Industry chain volume seasonally adjusted total capex
Dec Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21Mar Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21
% change% change
Mining 4.1 0.7
Manufacturing 15.4 14.4
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 5.4 -8.3
Construction 17.0 55.8
Wholesale Trade 13.2 16.5
Retail Trade 14.4 35.6
Accommodation and Food Services 8.8 21.5
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2.8 -12.0
Information Media and Telecommunications -2.1 -16.2
Financial and Insurance Services 17.6 -1.9
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 4.9 -11.6
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 9.6 9.4
Administrative and Support Services -5.1 38.6
Education and Training 6.9 -13.4
Health Care and Social Assistance -7.0 -14.1
Arts and Recreation Services 17.3 -59.7
Other Services 7.3 42.4
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Industry chain volume buildings and structures
Dec Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21Mar Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21
% change% change
Mining 2.6 1.3
Manufacturing 16.5 9.7
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 2.3 -9.7
Construction 34.5 54.2
Wholesale Trade 3.6 -7.0
Retail Trade 7.8 15.7
Accommodation and Food Services -8.3 -7.7
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 10.1 0.3
Information Media and Telecommunications 3.1 -8.6
Financial and Insurance Services 27.8 -20.2
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 6.1 -11.3
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 10.8 30.6
Administrative and Support Services 53.5 395.5
Education and Training -6.4 -15.0
Health Care and Social Assistance -8.8 -17.0
Arts and Recreation Services 15.8 -60.7
Other Services 18.4 171.9
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Industry chain volume equipment and machinery
Dec Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21Mar Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21
% change% change
Mining 8.1 -0.7
Manufacturing 14.9 16.1
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 28.3 0.6
Construction 16.3 55.9
Wholesale Trade 15.0 21.7
Retail Trade 17.0 44.5
Accommodation and Food Services 19.2 42.2
Transport, Postal and Warehousing -2.7 -20.2
Information Media and Telecommunications -20.5 -39.7
Financial and Insurance Services 15.9 2.5
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 2.5 -12.1
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 9.4 5.7
Administrative and Support Services -19.0 5.2
Education and Training 49.2 -10.3
Health Care and Social Assistance -4.6 -10.2
Arts and Recreation Services 18.9 -58.9
Other Services 2.8 16.2

State movements

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State chain volume seasonally adjusted total capex
Dec Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21Mar Qtr 20 to Mar Qtr 21
% change% change
New South Wales 9.8 7.0
Victoria 3.8 -8.4
Queensland -0.4 -13.2
South Australia 11.0 21.0
Western Australia 10.9 10.3
Tasmania 9.0 7.5
Northern Territory -46.9 -41.8
Australian Capital Territory 6.0 0.4

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