3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/07/2019   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

SENSITIVITY TO PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS

This chapter discusses the effect of differing levels of components of population change on the projected size, structure and numbers of births and deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. Overall, sensitivity analysis shows that varying the assumptions appears to have a minimal effect on the size of the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

FERTILITY RATES

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of fertility assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected births. The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and births in 2031 under three fertility assumptions:

Based on the Series B fertility assumption (1.0% annual decline in fertility rates):

  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,071,900 people in 2031 (up from 798,400 in Series B in 2016)
  • births are projected to increase from 18,970 in 2017 to 24,370 in 2031.

Assuming fertility rates remain constant (Series D) it is projected that:
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia will reach 1,088,600 people in 2031 (up from 1,071,900 in Series B in 2031)
  • births will be higher than in Series B in 2031 (26,720 compared with 24,370)
  • this will result in more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2031 than in Series B (342,200 compared with 325,500).

Assuming a 1.5% annual decline in fertility rates (Series E):
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,064,100 people in 2031 (down from 1,071,900 people in Series B in 2031)
  • births will be lower than in Series B in 2031 (23,310 compared with 24,370 )
  • this will result in fewer Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2031 than in Series B (317,700 compared with 325,500).


Table 1: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION AND BIRTHS(a), Alternative fertility assumptions

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust. (b)

POPULATION ('000)

2016
265.7
57.8
221.3
42.3
100.5
28.5
74.5
7.5
798.4
2031
Constant (series D)
360.2
84.8
309.4
58.2
137.2
37.5
89.5
11.5
1 088.6
1.0% annual decrease (series B)
354.8
83.6
304.4
57.3
134.9
37.1
88.2
11.3
1 071.9
1.5% annual decrease (series E)
352.2
83.1
302.0
56.9
133.8
36.9
87.5
11.3
1 064.1

BIRTHS

2017(c)
6 509
1 448
5 439
996
2 333
630
1 428
181
18 968
2031
Constant (series D)
9 333
2 313
7 917
1 380
3 112
877
1 488
293
26 719
1.0% annual decrease (series B)
8 562
2 147
7 203
1 257
2 793
816
1 314
274
24 372
1.5% annual decrease (series E)
8 213
2 071
6 878
1 202
2 650
789
1 235
266
23 309

(a) Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander paternity rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for Series B.
(b) Includes Other Territories.
(c) Number of births projected under Series B.

PATERNITY RATES

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of paternity assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected births.

The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and births in 2031 under the three paternity assumptions:

Based on the Series B paternity assumption (1.0% annual increase in paternity rates):
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,071,900 people in 2031 (up from 798,400 in 2016)
  • births are projected to increase from 18,970 in 2017 to 24,370 in 2031.

Assuming paternity rates remain constant (Series F) it is projected that:
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia will reach 1,064,200 people in 2031 (down from 1,071,900 in Series B in 2031)
  • births will be lower than in Series B in 2031 (23,220 births compared with 24,370)
  • This will result in fewer Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2031 than in Series B (317,800 compared with 325,500).

Assuming a 2.0% annual increase in paternity rates (Series G):
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1 080,300 people in 2031 (up from 1071,900 people in Series B in 2031)
  • births will be higher than in Series B in 2031 (25,680 births compared with 24,370)
  • This will result in more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2031 than in Series B (333,900 compared with 325,500).


Table 2: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION AND BIRTHS(a), Alternative paternity assumptions

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust. (b)

POPULATION ('000)

2016
265.7
57.8
221.3
42.3
100.5
28.5
74.5
7.5
798.4
2031
Constant (series F)
351.7
82.7
302.3
56.9
134.3
36.7
88.0
11.2
1 064.2
1.0% annual increase (series B)
354.8
83.6
304.4
57.3
134.9
37.1
88.2
11.3
1 071.9
2.0% annual increase (series G)
358.1
84.6
306.7
57.7
135.6
37.5
88.3
11.5
1 080.3

BIRTHS

2017(c)
6 509
1 448
5 439
996
2 333
630
1 428
181
18 968
2031
Constant (series F)
8 111
2 009
6 886
1 200
2 703
762
1 293
253
23 223
1.0% annual decrease (series B)
8 562
2 147
7203
1 257
2 793
816
1 314
274
24 372
2.0% annual increase (series G)
9 077
2 302
7 565
1 322
2 896
878
1 337
298
25 681

(a) Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for Series B.
(b) Includes Other Territories.
(c) Number of births projected under Series B.


LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of life expectancy at birth assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected deaths.

The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and deaths in 2031 under the three life expectancy at birth assumptions:

Based on the series B life expectancy assumption (annual increase of 0.40 years for males and 0.25 years for females):
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,071,900 people in 2031 (up from 798,400 in 2016)
  • deaths are projected to increase from 3,080 in 2017 to 4,320 in 2031.

Assuming an annual increase of 0.25 years for males and 0.20 years for females (series I) it is projected that:
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia will reach 1,070,100 people in 2031 (down from 1,071,900 in Series B in 2031)
  • deaths are projected to be higher than in Series B in 2031 (4,550 deaths compared with 4,320).
Assuming an annual increase of 0.45 years for males and 0.35 years for females (series H):
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,075,300 people in 2031 (up from 1,071,900 in Series B in 2031)
  • deaths are projected to be lower than in Series B in 2031 (3,880 deaths compared with 4,320).


Table 3: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION AND DEATHS(a), Alternative life expectancy at birth assumptions

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust. (b)

POPULATION ('000)

2016
265.7
57.8
221.3
42.3
100.5
28.5
74.5
7.5
798.4
2031
Annual increase of 0.25 years for males and 0.20 years for females (series I)
353.9
83.4
303.8
57.2
134.7
37.2
88.4
11.3
1 070.1
Annual increase of 0.40 years for males and 0.25 years for females (series B)
354.8
83.6
304.4
57.3
134.9
37.1
88.2
11.3
1 071.9
Annual increase of 0.45 years for males and 0.35 years for females (series H)
355.8
83.8
305.3
57.5
135.3
37.3
88.6
11.4
1 075.3

DEATHS

2017(c)
1 076
280
951
172
319
77
184
16
3 077
2031
Annual increase of 0.25 years for males and 0.20 years for females (series I)
1 519
371
1 394
238
522
136
334
32
4 549
Annual increase of 0.40 years for males and 0.25 years for females (series B)
1 409
350
1 310
223
489
143
352
36
4 315
Annual increase of 0.45 years for males and 0.35 years for females (series H)
1 280
322
1 198
202
436
118
296
28
3 882

(a) Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for Series B.
(b) Includes Other Territories.
(c) Number of deaths projected under Series B.

Interstate migration

One assumption has been made for future net internal migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people:
  • constant levels of migration as observed in the 2016 Census of Population and Housing based on address 5 years ago.