Population projected to reach 1 million by 2028

Released
11/07/2019

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1 million by 2028, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

These projections are based on a series of assumptions of future levels of fertility, paternity, mortality and internal migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

ABS Demography Director, Beidar Cho, said: "Based on medium series, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent per year to reach around 1,072,000 people by 2031.

"This compares with a projected annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent for the total Australian population over the same period.

"Although younger than the general population, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is ageing. The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons aged 65 years and over is projected to double from 4 per cent in 2016 to 8 per cent in 2031."

Ms Cho added: "The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations in all states and territories are projected to continue to grow, although at varying rates."

Based on medium series, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population living in Major Cities is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent, compared with 2.0 per cent in Inner and Outer Regional Areas and 0.7 per cent in Remote and Very Remote Areas.

Further details are available in Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031 (cat. no. 3238.0).

Table 1- Estimated and projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population (a)(b), states and territories, 2016 - 2031

  2031 SERIES A (high)2031 SERIES B (medium)2031 SERIES C (low)
 2011 no.2016 no.no.Growth rate (%)(c)no.Growth rate (%)(c)no.Growth rate (%)(c)
NSW236 637265 685364 6422.1354 7711.9348 2731.8
Vic.52 84857 76785 9862.783 6062.581 9932.4
Qld198 776221 276312 6392.3304 3952.1299 2922.0
SA38 60542 26558 7632.257 3062.156 3901.9
WA92 097100 512138 2442.1134 8952.0132 9801.9
Tas.25 75228 53738 1131.937 0891.836 5841.7
NT68 23174 54690 0781.388 1701.187 5881.1
ACT6 8947 51311 6383.011 3242.811 1552.7
Aust.(d)720 093798 3651 100 4272.21 071 8712.01 054 5691.9

a. Estimates and projections based on the 2016 Census.
b. Series A - high assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration; Series B - medium (current) assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration; Series C - low assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration.
c. Average annual growth rate for the period 2016 to 2031.
d. Includes Other Territories.
 

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