3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/07/2019   
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REMOTENESS AREAS AND INDIGENOUS REGIONS

In 2016, there were 298,400 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people residing in Major Cities, followed by 351,200 in Inner and Outer Regional areas and 148,700 in Remote and Very Remote areas.

By 2031, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to increase to between:

  • 424,700 people (low series) and 443,700 people (high series) in Major Cities, at an average annual growth rate of between 2.4% and 2.7% per year
  • 467,500 people (low series) and 488,300 people (high series) in Inner and Outer Regional areas, at an average annual growth rate of between 1.9% and 2.2% per year
  • 162,400 people (low series) and 168,400 people (high series) in Remote and Very Remote areas, at an average annual growth rate of between 0.6% and 0.8% per year.

Table 1: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a), Remoteness Areas, 2006 - 2031

2006
2016
2031 (SERIES A)
2031 (SERIES B)
2031 (SERIES C)
no.
no.
no.
Growth rate (%)(b)
no.
Growth rate (%)(b)
no.
Growth rate (%)(b)

Major Cities
242,987
298 430
443,739
2.7
431,982
2.5
424,711
2.4
Inner and Outer Regional
280,477
351 206
488,254
2.2
475,383
2.0
467,459
1.9
Remote and Very Remote
116,572
148 729
168,434
0.8
164,506
0.7
162,399
0.6
Australia(c)
640,036
798 365
1 100 427
2.2
1 071 871
2.0
1 054 569
1.9

(a) Estimates and projections based on the 2016 Census.
(b) Average annual growth rate for the period 2016 to 2031.
(c) Includes Other Territories.

Population share

Based on all three series:
  • Inner and Outer Regional areas are projected to continue to have the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population with their share remaining stable at 44% in both 2016 and 2031
  • Major Cities share is projected to increase from 37% in 2016 to 40% in 2031
  • Remote and Very Remote areas share is projected to decrease from 19% in 2016 to 15% in 2031.


INDIGENOUS REGIONS

All three series project continuing population growth in the majority of Indigenous Regions between 2016 and 2031:

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in the Australian Capital Territory is projected to be the fastest growing of all Indigenous regions, with an average annual growth rate of between 2.7% and 3.0% per year. This is followed by:
  • Brisbane (between 2.6% and 2.9%)
  • Victoria, excluding Melbourne (between 2.4% and 2.8%).

Katherine is the only Indigenous region where the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is projected to decrease between 2016 and 2031. This can be attributed to assumed net migration loss (see Assumptions chapter, Table 15).


Table 2: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a), Indigenous Regions, 2016 - 2031

2016
2031 (SERIES A)
2031 (SERIES B)
2031 (SERIES C)
no.
no.
Growth rate (%)(b)
no.
Growth rate (%)(b)
no.
Growth rate (%)(b)

Dubbo
15 962
20 567
1.7
19 979
1.5
19 619
1.4
North-Eastern NSW
25 475
33 737
1.9
32 808
1.7
32 223
1.6
North-Western NSW
9 848
10 854
0.7
10 542
0.5
10 346
0.3
NSW Central and North Coast
85 169
123 722
2.5
120 367
2.3
118 120
2.2
Riverina - Orange
30 830
43 415
2.3
42 237
2.1
41 443
2.0
South-Eastern NSW
16 716
23 454
2.3
22 832
2.1
22 407
2.0
Sydney - Wollongong
81 685
108 893
1.9
106 006
1.8
104 115
1.6
Melbourne
28 584
41 896
2.6
40 845
2.4
40 114
2.3
Victoria exc. Melbourne
29 183
44 090
2.8
42 761
2.6
41 879
2.4
Brisbane
84 454
129 835
2.9
126 482
2.7
124 313
2.6
Cairns - Atherton
30 050
40 148
2.0
39 064
1.8
38 416
1.7
Cape York
10 579
13 848
1.8
13 469
1.6
13 228
1.5
Mount Isa
9 003
9 518
0.4
9 253
0.2
9 085
0.1
Rockhampton
26 941
36 468
2.0
35 528
1.9
34 941
1.7
Toowoomba - Roma
21 350
28 398
1.9
27 648
1.7
27 210
1.6
Torres Strait
7 403
8 378
0.8
8 156
0.6
8 027
0.5
Townsville - Mackay
31 496
46 046
2.6
44 795
2.4
44 072
2.3
Adelaide
30 124
44 711
2.7
43 578
2.5
42 867
2.4
Port Augusta
9 403
11 171
1.2
10 906
1.0
10 751
0.9
Port Lincoln - Ceduna
2 738
2 881
0.3
2 822
0.2
2 772
0.1
Broome
6 057
7 909
1.8
7 706
1.6
7 597
1.5
Geraldton
8 502
10 267
1.3
10 020
1.1
9 857
1.0
Kalgoorlie
7 510
10 179
2.0
9 937
1.9
9 809
1.8
Kununurra
6 040
6 932
0.9
6 760
0.8
6 643
0.6
Perth
38 919
57 899
2.7
56 463
2.5
55 635
2.4
South Hedland
11 800
16 260
2.2
15 870
2.0
15 669
1.9
South-Western WA
15 631
21 009
2.0
20 539
1.8
20 264
1.7
West Kimberly
6 053
7 789
1.7
7 600
1.5
7 506
1.4
Tasmania
28 537
38 113
1.9
37 089
1.8
36 584
1.7
Alice Springs
6 807
7 548
0.7
7 368
0.5
7 315
0.5
Apatula
10 191
12 513
1.4
12 242
1.2
12 158
1.2
Darwin
18 309
22 044
1.2
21 574
1.1
21 385
1.0
Jabiru - Tiwi
12 425
16 720
2.0
16 411
1.9
16 324
1.8
Katherine
11 063
10 105
-0.6
9 865
-0.8
9 804
-0.8
Nhulunbuy
11 377
16 370
2.5
16 020
2.3
15 957
2.3
Tennant Creek
4 374
4 778
0.6
4 690
0.5
4 645
0.4
Australian Capital Territory
7 513
11 638
3.0
11 324
2.8
11 155
2.7
Australia(c)
798 365
1 100 427
2.2
1 071 871
2.0
1 054 569
1.9

(a) Estimate and projections based on the 2016 Census.
(b) Average annual growth rate for the period 2016 to 2031.
(c) Includes Other Territories.