Migration Matters: Economic Insights Through Data

29-30 June 2026
H.C. Coombs Centre 
122A Kirribilli Avenue, Kirribilli  NSW  2061

The conference will explore how migration shapes Australia’s demographic profile, labour markets, and regional economies. The focus will be on empirical research and will showcase the role of data in building an understanding of migration's economic role. 

The demographic and economic implications of migration

Abstract: This presentation will discuss the contribution of net overseas migration to national and regional population growth. Drawing from previous IGR analysis and research undertaken and commissioned by the Centre for Population, we will also consider the demographic and economic impacts of migration with regards to fertility, ageing, labour participation, housing, GDP and government budget. We will conclude by discussing Treasury’s capability development program to enhance our migration forecasting and analysis.

Modelling Migration Pathways: Empirical Insights from Visa Journeys in Australia

Abstract: Understanding how visa holders move through the visa system is critical to managing Australia’s migration system. Evidence increasingly shows that many migrant hold multiple visas prior departing Australia or obtaining a permanent visa and citizenship, and these pathways play a major role in shaping long-term behaviours and migrant outcomes. With limited policy levers available to directly influence behaviours and outcomes, particularly once a migrant is onshore, a clear understanding of how pathway choices drive behaviours and outcomes is crucial for managing migration flows and informing policy design. The Immigration Analysis Centre has developed a novel pathway‑based modelling framework using internal Home Affairs microdata. This system‑wide approach reveals how migrants move through the visa system over time and highlights patterns and cross‑policy impacts that are not observable through visa‑specific analysis alone.

Early empirical findings indicate that migrant behaviour has shifted markedly over time in response to major policy reforms, including the introduction of the third Working Holiday Maker visa, implementation of the UK–Australia Free Trade Agreement, and successive changes to student and temporary graduate visa settings. Pathway analysis allows us to identify and quantify behavioural responses directly attributable to these reforms, revealing how policy changes reshape not only immediate visa choices but also longer‑term migration pathways. The results show divergent trends in migrant behaviour over time, reflecting evolving migrant intentions such transitions from longer‑term settlement or repeated temporary stays and demonstrate that policy settings play a central role in influencing these strategic pathway decisions. These findings also demonstrate that reforms targeting specific visa streams can generate significant spillover effects across the broader migration system by altering incentives along entire pathways rather than affecting isolated visa cohorts.

Findings derived from this pathway‑based analysis have been incorporated into policy development, supporting the design and assessment of Budget measures focused on migration system reform and integrity outcomes. This paper presents early empirical insights from a new system‑wide analysis of visa journeys using Home Affairs microdata, illustrating how pathway‑based evidence strengthens our understanding of migrant behaviour and improves the design and evaluation of migration policy.

Examining the role of migration, fertility, and mortality in driving population ageing and population growth in Australia

Abstract: What effect will alternative future trajectories of net overseas migration, fertility, and mortality have on population ageing and population growth in Australia over the next century? This question was addressed by Kippen and McDonald in a set of influential papers about 25 years ago. This paper updates and extends their analysis. An update is necessary because Australia’s demography is quite different from 25 years ago: net overseas migration is higher, fertility lower, life expectancy has risen, and the population has grown substantially in size. It extends the earlier analysis by evaluating the impact of various migration, fertility and mortality futures using conditional probabilistic projection scenarios. Probabilistic projections explicitly account for uncertainty about the demographic future; conditional probabilistic projections account for uncertainty conditional on specified demographic trends occurring. For example, a conditional probabilistic projection with a total fertility rate of 1.20 comprises a fixed fertility assumption but uncertain migration and mortality projections. It allows the plausible range of population ageing and growth to be evaluated conditional on a specified level of fertility occurring. Conditional probabilistic projections over the 100 years from 2025 to 2125 are presented, with the impacts on population ageing and growth highlighted.

After the Migration Splash: From Flow Targets to Stock Governance

Abstract: How should settlement societies interpret and govern migration after major disruptions? This talk brings together two arguments. The first is that post-shock migration flows may follow what we call a 'migration splash': a rebound, overshoot, and damped settling rather than smooth convergence. The second is that in countries like Australia, the key policy problem is no longer migration flows in the abstract, but the stock dynamics of temporary residence. Using Australia’s recent experience, we show that the post-COVID expansion of the temporary population is best understood not simply as a surge in arrivals, but as the outcome of delayed system adjustment combined with a widening gap between temporary net inflows and transitions to permanent residence. This helps explain why annual Net Overseas Migration figures are such weak guides to the pressures policymakers are actually trying to manage. If the concern is housing, infrastructure, labour market dependence, or the ethics and politics of long-term temporariness, then the relevant object of governance is the temporary population stock and its relationship to permanent absorption capacity. We therefore argue for a shift from flow-focused targets to a stock–flow approach anchored in conversions to permanence. We touch on Canada’s early efforts to implement a stock-based approach, albeit with some problematic elements. Such a framework offers a more analytically coherent way to stabilise migration after shocks and to govern temporariness in contemporary settlement states.

Labour market outcomes of migrants on regional visas

Abstract: Regional visas are a growing part of Australia’s skilled migration system – accounting for around 18% of permanent places in 2025, up from 8% in 2014. Broadly, these visas aim to encourage migrants to regional areas to grow regional economies and ease population pressures on major cities. Existing evidence suggests regional visas have varying success in retaining migrants in the regions and that, on average, they earn less than other types of skilled migration. We use linked administrative and Census microdata to analyse in more detail what factors may contribute to these earnings differences, as well as explore the role of location in migrants outcomes.”

Intergenerational income mobility of migrants in Australia

Abstract: This presentation outlines preliminary research examining how and why intergenerational mobility differs between children of migrants and those with Australian-born parents. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA), we investigate whether certain migrant groups experience persistent disadvantage, with a particular focus on gender differences.

International Students and the Australian Economy

Abstract: International students play a significant role in the Australian economy. They contribute to demand through their spending on goods and services and are an important source of labour for some Australian businesses. This article shows that international students tend to add more to demand in the economy than they do to supply in the short run, in large part reflecting their spending on tertiary education fees. In periods of large swings in international student numbers or when the economy has little spare capacity, this means that changing international student numbers can affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in sectors of the economy where supply cannot respond quickly. The rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic likely contributed to high inflation over this period, but was not a major driver.

Annual Overseas Migration and Housing Markets: Evidence from Australian Neighborhoods

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of net overseas migration (NOM) on residential property markets using annual, neighborhood-level data for Australia. We apply an instrumental variable strategy based on historical immigrant settlement patterns to isolate exogenous variation in migration flows. A one percentage point increase in NOM as a share of the local population raises house rents by 2.8% and unit rents by 4.3%, and increases unit prices by 3.2%. The baseline effect on house prices is not statistically significant, though cumulative estimates over one- and two-year horizons become negative and significant. The effects of immigration on prices and rents are lower in older neighborhoods, consistent with an amenity interpretation where attitudes toward immigrants are less favorable among older residents, counteracting positive demand pressures. Finally, our estimated impacts on the out-migration of incumbent residents are limited and, if anything, smaller than those reported in the previous literature.

Migration after migration: Regional internal migration flows of recent international migrants in Australia

Abstract: Recent migrants are more geographically mobile than less recent migrants and Australian‑born people, particularly in the period after their arrival in Australia. This paper uses Census and linked administrative data to examine regional mobility patterns and associated demographic and labour market characteristics. Using data from the Census (for 2011, 2016 and 2021), it compares the internal migration patterns of recent migrants with those of other migrants and Australian‑born people. It then uses the Australian Census and Migrants Integrated Dataset (ACMID) and the Australian Census and Temporary Entrants Integrated Dataset (ACTEID) to compare the visa, labour market and demographic characteristics of recent migrants who were more or less likely to move.  

A stock/flow model of Australia's population by visa and citizenship

Abstract: Australia is a highly migrant-dependent society and economy, with over 30 per cent of the population born overseas. Given differences in obligations, work rights and eligibility for payments across visa types, changes in the composition as well as size of the migrant population can have substantial macroeconomic, fiscal and social implications. Despite this, there is currently no timely and coherent statistical picture of the population by visa and citizenship, creating a significant gap in the evidence base for migration policy, macroeconomic analysis and service planning. Prominent demographers have repeatedly highlighted the need for official statistics on Australia’s population by visa type. We present a new framework that, for the first time, integrates administrative data from the Department of Home Affairs with official population statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to produce quarterly estimates and forecasts of Australia’s population by visa and citizenship type. These outputs provide a foundation for a wide range of applications, including fiscal, macroeconomic and demographic modelling.

International Students Pathways and Outcomes Study

Abstract: This study provides insights into how the education, migration, and employment systems can best work together to enhance the contribution made by international students to Australia’s skilled workforce. The research includes observations from available data about international graduates’ experiences; qualitative research with stakeholders; and targeted analysis within the ABS’ Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA). It focuses on cohorts who began their studies in Australia in 2010-2011 and subsequent years and tracks their progress in the context of the education and migration settings that were in place up to the end of 2023. The study is an important step to understanding how international students enter the workforce as graduates and where the path to skilled work may need better support. There is clear evidence of disparate outcomes between domestic and international students where domestic students are more likely to be employed in their field of study and earn more than their international counterparts.

Change and persistence: a review of the Australian visa system since the border re-opened

Abstract: This paper will review how the visa system has changed, and how it hasn’t, in the period 2022 to 2025. This is a unique period for the Australian visa system, with the re-opening of the border after the pandemic, followed by a period of intense visa demand and a set of ongoing policy changes to administer the system. Section 1 introduces the Australian visa system and the context of the pandemic, Section 2 outlines the reviews and research of the period, Section 3 describes visa trends over 2021-2025, Section 4 describes what policy change has occurred, and Section 5 outlines the persistence of long-running norms in the visa system.