This publication contains life expectancy estimates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people for Australia, selected states/territory, remoteness area and SEIFA (Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage) for the reference period from 2015 to 2017. These are life expectancy estimates for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population as measured in the 2016 Census and adjusted for net undercount using Post Enumeration Survey (PES) results, which may not represent all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia. As such, a number of data quality issues need to be considered when reporting and interpreting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy estimates presented in this release.
The standard approach to compiling life tables and resulting life expectancy estimates requires complete and accurate data on the average number of deaths that occur in a period, and reliable estimates of the population (at the mid-point of the period) exposed to the risk of dying. These data are required by age and sex, so as to calculate age-sex specific death rates. In the case of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mortality estimation, this situation is less than perfect. Registration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths have some limitations compared to those for the entire population. In addition, a number of quality issues associated with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates exist. In combination, these present particular methodological challenges to compiling high quality life tables and making comparisons over time. For more information see Quality issues with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths and population data.
Reporting on life expectancy estimates in the context of other measures of progress
Changes in people's propensity to identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander between Census years have resulted in compositional changes in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population over time. This is particularly prevalent in Major Cities. Between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population increased by 18.4% (100,803 people). Analysis shows that 78.6% of this increase can be explained by demographic factors, such as births, deaths and overseas migration. The remaining 21.4% (or 21,531) of the increase in Census counts that could not be explained by demographic factors can be attributed to changing propensities to identify and methodological improvements in coverage and response rates in the Census (see Census of Population and Housing: Understanding the Increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Counts, 2016).
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in Major Cities (where most of the 2011 to 2016 population increase occurred) were the main contributors to intercensal increases in Year 12 attainment, non-school qualifications, labour force participation and higher personal weekly income. These changes pose significant challenges in the interpretation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy estimates over time.
While the estimates in this release show a small improvement in life expectancy estimates and a reduction in the gap between the periods from 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017, this improvement should be interpreted with considerable caution as the population composition has changed during this period as outlined above. This release provides information on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy in different geographic areas, to assist policy markers target initiatives for improved life expectancy gains.
The ABS recommends that estimates be considered in context with other health performance measures to adequately assess progress in 'Closing the Gap' measures.
Summary of headline estimates
At the national level, for the period from 2015 to 2017, life expectancy at birth for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males was estimated to be 71.6 years, 8.6 years less than life expectancy at birth for non-Indigenous males (80.2 years). Life expectancy at birth for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander females was estimated to be 75.6 years, 7.8 years less than life expectancy at birth for non-Indigenous females (83.4 years). These estimates relate to the 2016 Census-based population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.
Since the period from 2010 to 2012 when the last estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy were produced based on the 2011 Census, life expectancy for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males and females increased by 2.5 years and 1.9 years respectively. The difference between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous life expectancy narrowed by 2.0 years for males and 1.7 years for females over the same period.
This slight improvement in life expectancy is consistent with the changing composition of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population between the two censuses, and in particular with stronger population growth in the Major cities, partly reflecting an increased propensity to identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander in these areas.
Use of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables
Estimates of life expectancy at birth for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians are commonly used as a measure for assessing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population health and disadvantage to progress national 'Closing the Gap' targets.
The life tables in this release will enable the construction of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates and projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia for 2006 to 2031. These data are produced using the cohort-component method, in which assumptions made about levels of mortality, fertility and migration are iteratively applied to a base population to obtain projections of past and/or future populations.
Choice of method
Since the issue of this publication for the period from 2005 to 2007, an improvement has been made to the method of calculating Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables at the Australia level. The method now takes age-specific identification rates into account when calculating the underidentification adjustment. For more information see Data linkage to derive Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths identification rates.
However, this method could not be used for state and territory life tables due to insufficient sample from the Post Enumeration Survey to accurately calculate age-specific identification rates. The estimates for New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory were therefore calculated without an age-specific adjustment, and followed the same methodology that was used for the 2005 to 2007 and 2010 to 2012 life tables. Due to the different methodologies, life expectancy estimates for these states and one territory are not directly comparable with the headline estimates for Australia, which used an age-specific adjustment. Comparable Australia level life tables have been calculated without an age-specific adjustment to enable national, state and territory and remoteness area comparisons.
These methods are very similar and both have two key features. First, the use of data linking enables direct calculation of identification rates. Second, by aligning the deaths data to the population estimates derived from the 2016 Census and Post Enumeration Survey the methodology ensures consistency between the numerator (that is, estimates of deaths) and the denominator (estimates of population at risk).
For completeness, a number of alternative approaches to adjust for underidentification of Indigenous status in deaths data and the resulting life expectancy estimates are presented in Appendix – Alternative approaches to adjust deaths. Assessment of the various alternatives showed that on balance, the same method as used for the periods from 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017 life expectancy estimates was the best choice.
Life tables for Australia (headline and comparison estimates), New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory are presented in Life tables. Due to the relatively small number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths in Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, it is not currently possible to construct reliable individual life tables for these states and territory.
Life expectancy estimates in this publication refer to the average number of additional years a person of a given age and sex might expect to live if the age/sex-specific death rates for the period from 2015 to 2017 were to continue throughout his/her lifetime.
Life expectancy may be compiled for any particular age or age group, thus, life expectancy at birth refers to the average number of years a group of new-born babies could expect to live, if they experienced the death rates for the period from 2015 to 2017 throughout their lifetimes. This does not equate to the number of years of life any one person or group of persons will actually live.
Life expectancy at birth of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians
Table 1 presents life expectancy at selected ages for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous Australians. At all ages, for both males and females, life expectancy for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians is lower than for non-Indigenous Australians.
LIFE EXPECTANCY | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander | Non-Indigenous | Total | Difference between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous life expectancy(c) | |
years | years | years | years | |
MALES | ||||
0 | 71.6 | 80.2 | 80.0 | 8.6 |
1 | 71.1 | 79.4 | 79.2 | 8.3 |
5 | 67.2 | 75.5 | 75.3 | 8.3 |
25 | 47.9 | 55.8 | 55.7 | 7.9 |
50 | 26.7 | 32.1 | 32.0 | 5.4 |
65 | 15.8 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 3.1 |
85 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.3 |
FEMALES | ||||
0 | 75.6 | 83.4 | 83.2 | 7.8 |
1 | 75.2 | 82.6 | 82.5 | 7.5 |
5 | 71.2 | 78.7 | 78.5 | 7.5 |
25 | 51.7 | 58.9 | 58.7 | 7.2 |
50 | 29.0 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 5.6 |
65 | 17.1 | 20.8 | 20.7 | 3.7 |
85 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.3 |
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MALES AND FEMALES | ||||
0 | -4.0 | -3.2 | -3.3 | . . |
1 | -4.0 | -3.2 | -3.2 | . . |
5 | -4.0 | -3.2 | -3.2 | . . |
25 | -3.8 | -3.0 | -3.1 | . . |
50 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.5 | . . |
65 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -1.8 | . . |
85 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | . . |
. . not applicable
a. These life expectancy estimates are calculated taking age-specific identification rates into account.
b. Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
c. Differences are based on unrounded estimates.
Ratio of mortality rates
Life expectancy estimates reflect the rates of mortality at different ages within a population. Graph 1 illustrates the differences in mortality rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous Australians for the period from 2015 to 2017.
For males, the largest differences were in the 40–44 year and 45–49 year age groups, where mortality rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males were around four times higher than rates for non-Indigenous males. For females, the largest differences were in the 30–34 year and 35–39 year age groups, where mortality rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander females were over four times higher than rates for non-Indigenous females.
- Ratio of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mortality rate (qx) to non-Indigenous mortality rate.
- Headline estimates for Australia are calculated taking age-specific identification rates into account.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
State and territory life expectancy at birth
State and territory estimates are calculated on a different methodological basis to the headline Australia estimates (at which level it is possible to account for differing rates of mortality for different age groups). For this reason, a comparable Australia level series has been calculated without an age-specific adjustment and is included in the table below. Life expectancy at birth for people differs across the four states and territory for which estimates could be produced. For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males, life expectancy at birth was highest in Queensland (72.0 years) and lowest in the Northern Territory (66.6 years). A similar pattern exists for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander females, with the highest life expectancy at birth in Queensland (76.4 years) and the lowest in the Northern Territory (69.9 years).
Differences in life expectancy at birth estimates between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous Australians were largest for males in Western Australia (13.4 years lower) and for females in the Northern Territory (12.8 years lower).
LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander | Non-Indigenous | Total(b) | Difference between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous life expectancy at birth(c) | |
years | years | years | years | |
MALES | ||||
NSW | 70.9 | 80.2 | 80.0 | 9.4 |
Qld | 72.0 | 79.8 | 79.6 | 7.8 |
WA | 66.9 | 80.3 | 79.9 | 13.4 |
NT | 66.6 | 78.1 | 75.3 | 11.5 |
Aust.(d)(e) | 70.0 | 80.2 | 80.0 | 10.3 |
FEMALES | ||||
NSW | 75.9 | 83.5 | 83.3 | 7.6 |
Qld | 76.4 | 83.2 | 83.0 | 6.7 |
WA | 71.8 | 83.8 | 83.4 | 12.0 |
NT | 69.9 | 82.7 | 78.7 | 12.8 |
Aust.(d)(e) | 74.4 | 83.5 | 83.2 | 9.0 |
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MALES AND FEMALES | ||||
NSW | -5.0 | -3.3 | -3.3 | . . |
Qld | -4.4 | -3.4 | -3.4 | . . |
WA | -4.9 | -3.5 | -3.6 | . . |
NT | -3.2 | -4.6 | -3.4 | . . |
Aust.(d)(e) | -4.5 | -3.2 | -3.3 | . . |
. . not applicable
a. Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
b. Estimates of life expectancy at birth for the total population presented in this release differ from estimates in Life Tables, States, Territories and Australia, 2015-2017. See paragraph 24 of the Methodology for more information.
c. Differences are based on unrounded estimates.
d. These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
e. Includes all states and territories
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
- These estimates are not the headline estimates for Australia, because they are calculated without an age-adjustment, but are provided to enable effective comparisons with the state and territory, and remoteness area estimates.
- Includes all states and territories.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
- These estimates are not the headline estimates for Australia, because they are calculated without an age-adjustment, but are provided to enable effective comparisons with the state and territory, and remoteness area estimates.
- Includes all states and territories.
Confidence intervals for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy
Life expectancy estimates are presented together with their 95% confidence intervals below, to highlight that estimates have a margin of error attached to them. The 95% confidence interval indicates a range of values in which users can be 95% certain that the true life expectancy estimates lie within the interval. If the confidence intervals of two estimates do not overlap, then the estimates are statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
See Appendix – Confidence intervals, Table 1 for a comparison of life expectancy estimates and associated confidence intervals for the periods 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017.
- Estimates are statistically significant at 95% confidence level if their confidence intervals do not overlap.
- Significantly different from the 2010 to 2012 estimate at 95% confidence level.
- These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
- Includes all states and territories.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2010, 2011 and 2012 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2011 based on the 2011 Census.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
- Estimates are statistically significant at 95% confidence level if their confidence intervals do not overlap.
- Significantly different from the 2010 to 2012 estimate at 95% confidence level.
- These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
- Includes all states and territories.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2010, 2011 and 2012 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2011 based on the 2011 Census.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
Improvement in life expectancy during the periods 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017
During the periods 2010 to 2012 and 2015 to 2017, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth estimates for Australia (headline) increased by 2.5 years for males and 1.9 years for females.
The largest improvement was in Queensland (3.3 years for males and 2.0 years for females), followed by the Northern Territory (3.2 years for males and 1.2 years for females) and Western Australia (1.9 years for males and 1.7 years for females). The lowest improvement was in New South Wales (0.4 years for males and 1.3 years for females). While Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy increased in all states/territory for which estimates were produced, increases were only statistically significant for males in Queensland, and both males and females at the Australia comparison level.
Life expectancy by remoteness areas and SEIFA
Due to insufficient data for some RAs to be published individually, particularly at lower ages, the ABS has produced life expectancy at birth for only three categories of remoteness. These are Major Cities, Inner Regional and Outer Regional combined and Remote and Very Remote combined. Remoteness categories were grouped together according to the similarity of their mortality characteristics. Similarly, for life expectancy estimates by SEIFA (Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage), the two least disadvantaged quintiles have been grouped together due to insufficient data.
Life expectancy was significantly lower for both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males and females in Remote and Very Remote areas combined (65.9 and 69.6) than for those who lived in Major Cities (72.1 and 76.5 respectively). The difference between life expectancy estimates for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and the non-Indigenous populations was also more marked in these remote and very remote areas (13.8 years for males and 14.0 years for females) than in Major Cities (8.6 years and 7.2 years respectively).
This is consistent with the estimates presented in Table 4 which show that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in the most disadvantaged areas, a higher proportion of whom were living in remote Australia, have the lowest life expectancy (68.2 years for males and 72.8 years for females. This represented 41% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males and females, a third of whom lived in Remote and Very Remote areas. This compared with a life expectancy at birth estimate of 77.9 years for non-Indigenous males and 82.0 years for non-Indigenous females living in areas in the most disadvantage quintile, which represented around 17% of non-Indigenous males and females, of whom 2% were living in Remote and Very Remote areas.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander | Non-Indigenous | Total | Difference between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous life expectancy at birth(c) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
MALES | ||||
Major Cities | 72.1 | 80.7 | 80.6 | 8.6 |
Inner and Outer Regional | 70.0 | 79.1 | 78.7 | 9.1 |
Remote and Very Remote | 65.9 | 79.7 | 76.3 | 13.8 |
FEMALES | ||||
Major Cities | 76.5 | 83.7 | 83.6 | 7.2 |
Inner and Outer Regional | 74.8 | 82.8 | 82.5 | 8.0 |
Remote and Very Remote | 69.6 | 83.6 | 79.6 | 14.0 |
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MALES AND FEMALES | ||||
Major Cities | -4.4 | -3.0 | -3.1 | . . |
Inner and Outer Regional | -4.8 | -3.7 | -3.8 | . . |
Remote and Very Remote | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.3 | . . |
. . not applicable
a. Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
b. These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
c. Differences are based on unrounded estimates.
- Estimates are statistically significant at 95% confidence level if their confidence intervals do not overlap.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
- These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
- Difference between male and female estimates in the period from 2015 to 2017 are statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians | Non-Indigenous Australians | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Life expectancy | % of population in this quintile | % of people in this quintile living in Remote and Very Remote areas | Life expectancy | % of population in this quintile | % of people in this quintile living in Remote and Very Remote areas | |
Males | ||||||
Most disadvantaged 20% | 68.2 | 40.6 | 32.2 | 77.9 | 17.6 | 2.2 |
Second most disadvantaged 20% | 70.3 | 24.4 | 7.0 | 79.1 | 19.1 | 2.5 |
Middle 20% | 69.9 | 18.0 | 15.2 | 80.4 | 21.3 | 2.4 |
Least disadvantaged 40% | 72.4 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 81.7 | 42.0 | 0.6 |
Females | ||||||
Most disadvantaged 20% | 72.8 | 41.3 | 32.2 | 82.0 | 17.4 | 1.7 |
Second most disadvantaged 20% | 75.5 | 24.7 | 6.5 | 82.7 | 19.1 | 2.2 |
Middle 20% | 74.3 | 18.2 | 15.9 | 83.5 | 21.2 | 2.2 |
Least disadvantaged 40% | 76.6 | 15.8 | 5.4 | 84.4 | 42.3 | 0.4 |
a. These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
b. Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
- Estimates are statistically significant at 95% confidence level if their confidence intervals do not overlap.
- Based on the average number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths registered in 2015, 2016 and 2017 adjusted for under/over identification of Indigenous Status in registrations, and final Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates for 30 June 2016 based on the 2016 Census.
- These life expectancy estimates are calculated without taking age-specific identification rates into account.
- Difference between male and female estimates in the period from 2015 to 2017 are statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Comparison with AIHW estimates
In 2017, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) released a report on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy estimates for the period 2011 to 2015. Like the ABS, the AIHW also compiled life expectancy estimates through a data linking process. However, the AIHW linked registered deaths with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander death records from three alternative data sources. These data sources were Residential Age Care Dataset, National Hospital Morbidity Database and National Perinatal Data Collection.
The AIHW study produced Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy at birth of 70.1 years for males and 74.5 years for females for the period 2011 to 2015 (AIHW, 2017). These estimates are 1.5 years and 1.1 years lower than the ABS estimates of 71.6 and 75.6 years for males and females respectively for the period 2015 to 2017. The reasons for this difference could be due to a range of differences in methodologies and reference periods between the ABS and AIHW studies. It is important to note that quality issues are associated with estimates produced by both agencies.