| Mar-22 ($m) | Apr-22 ($m) | May-22 ($m) | Apr-22 to May-22 ($m) | Apr-22 to May-22 (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on goods and services | 10,395 | 13,248 | 15,965 | 2,717 | na | |
| Credits (Exports of goods & services) | 50,826 | 53,348 | 58,402 | 5,054 | 9.5 | |
| Debits (Imports of goods & services) | -40,431 | -40,100 | -42,437 | 2,337 | 5.8 | |
na not applicable
Enhancing Trade in Services quarterly statistics
The ABS is enhancing the quarterly international trade in services statistics. Further information on the enhancements and publication changes can be found in the attached article.
A summary of the implications to the current publication are:
- International trade in services estimates in the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication will not equal the sum of the three months that have been published in the International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia publication.
- From the June 2022 reference month, tables 11a and 11b will no longer be published in the International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia publication. The full suite of quarterly international trade in services data will be available from the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia publication for the current reference quarter.
COVID-19
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade resulting from it. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from March 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges.
Seasonal adjustment and COVID-19
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by COVID-19 will be calculated using data up to and including February 2020, then projected from March 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
The ABS has advised users that it moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international) practice requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions. The Feature Article International travel services time series outlines the matter in greater detail.
Quality of international trade in services statistics
Monthly International Trade in Services statistics (ITS) are compiled using multiple data sources. These data, compared with the publication reference period, are lagged. The lag in data results in most ITS estimates being nowcast when initially published. In recent times, these estimates have been more volatile, due in part to COVID-19 but also due to services data availability. While the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) make every effort to ensure estimates of monthly ITS are reflective and robust, in the current environment, the ABS recommends monthly services estimates be interpreted and used with caution. The International Trade in Services; Concepts, Source and Methods outlines this in further detail.
Changes in this issue
Changes to the International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List
The March 2022 reference month (released 28th April 2022) was the final issue of the International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List publication. The International merchandise trade: Confidential Commodities List (Previously Tables 1-4) datacube is now available as an additional download in this publication.
The Confidential Commodities List (CCL) is needed to interpret the impact of confidentiality on merchandise trade statistics in International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia and other international trade in good statistics. This change improves interpretability of the monthly data at the time it is released.
Balance on goods and services
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $15,965m in May 2022, an increase of $2,717m on the surplus in April 2022.
| Mar-22 ($m) | Apr-22 ($m) | May-22 ($m) | Apr-22 to May-22 ($m) | Apr-22 to May-22 (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on goods and services | 10,395 | 13,248 | 15,965 | 2,717 | na | ||
| Total goods and services credits | 50,826 | 53,348 | 58,402 | 5,054 | 9.5 | ||
| Total goods credits | 45,832 | 47,907 | 52,702 | 4,795 | 10.0 | ||
| Total services credits | 4,994 | 5,441 | 5,700 | 259 | 4.8 | ||
| Total goods and services debits | -40,431 | -40,100 | -42,437 | 2,337 | 5.8 | ||
| Total goods debits | -34,421 | -34,057 | -36,150 | 2,093 | 6.1 | ||
| Total services debits | -6,010 | -6,043 | -6,288 | 245 | 4.1 | ||
na not applicable
(a) For sign conventions, see the Explanatory notes.