| Jan-22 ($m) | Feb-22 ($m) | Mar-22 ($m) | Feb-22 to Mar-22 ($m) | Feb-22 to Mar-22 (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on goods and services | 12,407 | 7,437 | 9,314 | 1,877 | na | |
| Credits (Exports of goods & services) | 49,506 | 49,525 | 49,453 | -72 | - | |
| Debits (Imports of goods & services) | -37,099 | -42,088 | -40,139 | -1,949 | -5 | |
na not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
COVID-19
Suspension of trend estimates
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in international trade activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes to regular patterns in international trade resulting from it. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this unusual event they would provide a misleading view of underlying international trade activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in international trade activity can be accurately estimated. The trend series has therefore been suspended from March 2019 and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges.
Seasonal adjustment and COVID-19
International Accounts uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time new data becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method. From March 2020, seasonal factors for series that have been notably impacted by COVID-19 will be calculated using data up to and including February 2020, then projected from March 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.
The ABS has advised users that it moved to using forward factors for seasonal analysis of a number of series, including Travel Services. Current ABS (and international) practice requires at least three years of data to assess whether a change in seasonal pattern has occurred. Should COVID-19 result in a long-term change to the seasonal pattern then revisions to these series may occur in the future. The ABS will consult with users on any future methods changes to seasonal adjustment and potential revisions. The Feature Article International travel services time series outlines the matter in greater detail.
Quality of international trade in services statistics
Monthly International Trade in Services statistics (ITS) are compiled using multiple data sources. These data, compared with the publication reference period, are lagged. The lag in data results in most ITS estimates being nowcast when initially published. In recent times, these estimates have been more volatile, due in part to COVID-19 but also due to services data availability. While the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) make every effort to ensure estimates of monthly ITS are reflective and robust, in the current environment, the ABS recommends monthly services estimates be interpreted and used with caution. The International Trade in Services; Concepts, Source and Methods outlines this in further detail.
Changes to timing of release of International Trade, Supplementary Information, financial year (2020-21) and calendar year (2021)
COVID-19 has impacted the availability and quality of source data used to compile international trade in services estimates. As a result the 2020-2021 and 2021 International Trade, Supplementary Information publications (former cat. Nos. 5368.0.55.003 and 5368.0.55.004) have been delayed. Both publications are expected to be released commencing from June 2022.
Changes in this issue
Upcoming changes to the International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List
The March 2022 reference month (released 28th April 2022) was the final issue of the International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List publication. From the April 2022 reference month the International merchandise trade: Confidential Commodities List (Tables 1-4) datacube will be available as an additional download in the monthly International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia publication (released 2nd June 2022).
The Confidential Commodities List (CCL) is needed to interpret the impact of confidentiality on merchandise trade statistics in International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia and other international trade in good statistics. This change improves interpretability of the monthly data at the time it is released.
Review of seasonal adjustment
In early 2020 the ABS advised that the method used to produce seasonally adjusted estimates would be changed from the ‘concurrent adjustment’ method to the ‘forward factors’ method for series with significant and prolonged impacts from COVID-19. Given the ongoing disruption during the COVID-19 period and continuing use of forward factors, extraordinary annual reviews of seasonally adjusted series are progressively being undertaken across the ABS statistics programs.
The extraordinary annual review process assesses each series individually to determine how observations from 2020 and 2021 should be treated and determine the most appropriate approach (concurrent adjustment or forward factors) for estimating seasonal adjustment factors in the immediate future. Revisions arising from the annual review are relatively minor for most series, but series which have used forward factors are likely to have larger revisions because the seasonal factor estimates are annually updated to incorporate information from the previous year's observations.
The outcome of the review for Balance of Payments statistics is that the forward factor method will continue to be used for the Travel Services (credits and debits) and Transport - passenger (credits and debits) series. New forward factors have been calculated for the next 12 months and will be used from March 2022.
Further information can be found here.
Balance on goods and services
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $9,314m in March 2022, an increase of $1,877m on the surplus in February 2022.
| Jan-22 ($m) | Feb-22 ($m) | Mar-22 ($m) | Feb-22 to Mar-22 ($m) | Feb-22 to Mar-22 (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance on goods and services | 12,407 | 7,437 | 9,314 | 1,877 | na | ||
| Total goods and services credits | 49,506 | 49,525 | 49,453 | -72 | - | ||
| Total goods credits | 44,734 | 44,737 | 44,678 | -59 | - | ||
| Total services credits | 4,772 | 4,789 | 4,775 | -14 | - | ||
| Total goods and services debits | -37,099 | -42,088 | -40,139 | -1,949 | -5 | ||
| Total goods debits | -31,548 | -36,213 | -34,342 | -1,871 | -5 | ||
| Total services debits | -5,551 | -5,875 | -5,796 | -79 | -1 | ||
na not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see the Explanatory notes.