International Trade in Goods methodology

This publication presents preliminary estimates of Australia's international trade in goods on a balance of payments basis (original current price values, seasonally adjusted and trend) (tables 1-8 and 17) and merchandise import and export statistics on an international merchandise trade basis (original current price) (tables 12-15 and 31-37) and datacubes (tables 18 and 19). 

International merchandise trade statistics on a merchandise trade basis are primarily compiled from customs declarations submitted by exporters and importers or their agents to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). Adjustments for coverage, timing and valuation are made to international merchandise trade data to convert them to a balance of payments basis.

The monthly International Trade in Goods presents exports (credits) and imports (debits) statistics on a balance of payments (change of ownership) basis. These statistics are presented in original, seasonally adjusted and trend terms. 

Detailed monthly statistics on merchandise trade are available in time series spreadsheets on the ABS website or by subscription for tailored services. More information can also be found in the International Trade: Supplementary Information publication which is available on a financial year basis and calendar year basis.

More comprehensive quarterly estimates of Australia’s trade in goods and services, together with comprehensive details of Australia’s balance of payments are included in the quarterly publication, Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia.

Statistics on Australia’s international trade in goods are produced primarily from customs data collected from the Department of Home Affairs under the Census and Statistics Act 1905 (C&S Act). The data is sourced from administrative by-product information. 

Please refer to ABS Institutional Environment for more information about the institutional environment of the ABS, including legislative obligations, financing and governance arrangements and mechanisms for security of ABS operations.

Economic territory

In accordance with BPM6 definitions, Australia's economic territory, on a balance of payments basis, is the area under the effective control of the Australian government. It includes the land area, airspace, territorial waters, including jurisdiction over fishing rights and rights to fuels and minerals. Australian economic territory also includes territorial enclaves in the rest of the world. These are clearly demarcated areas of land, located in other countries and which are owned or rented by the Australian government for diplomatic, military, scientific or other purposes. Specifically, the economic territory of Australia consists of:

• Geographic Australia which includes Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island
• Norfolk Island
• Australian Antarctic Territory
• Heard Island and McDonald Islands
• Territory of Ashmore Reef and Cartier Island
• Coral Sea Islands
• Australia's territorial enclaves overseas
   

Because of administrative complexities and measurement difficulties, Norfolk Island transactions with the rest of the world will not always be captured in all relevant balance of payments statistics. Most of the transactions involving Norfolk Island are not material to Australia's trade performance and not capturing these transactions will not distort these statistics. However, any significant transactions will be identified and included in the relevant statistics.

The ABS compiles import and export declarations, as lodged with The Department of Home Affairs. While The Department of Home Affairs and the ABS apply various logic and quality assurance checks in order to ensure that trade statistics are timely and fit for purpose at aggregate levels, ABS statistical analysts focus on the most significant transactions. As such, care should be exercised in the use and interpretation of detailed international merchandise trade estimates. 

While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of estimates, most series are subject to revision as more complete and accurate information becomes available. Care should be exercised in the use and interpretation of estimates in this publication. 

Revisions are applied differently for the merchandise trade and balance of payments series. Each month, merchandise trade data are revised for the previous six months to incorporate latest available data.

For the balance of payments series, in original terms, revisions in the July, October, January or April issues are limited to significant new and revised that have become available since the previous issue. This is to ensure the monthly series align with the comparable series in the most recent issue of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia. In the August issue, revisions can be applied to the four previous financial years.

In seasonally adjusted and trend terms, revisions may occur at any time point but tend to focus on the most recent estimates. Please also refer to the seasonal adjustment and trend estimates paragraphs below.

Estimates of international trade in goods on a balance of payments basis are seasonally adjusted, however the merchandise exports and imports statistics on an international merchandise trade basis are not. Monthly original estimates can be volatile, as they are subject to calendar-related and irregular influences. Seasonally adjusted estimates are derived by estimating and removing systematic calendar related effects, such as seasonal (e.g. Christmas), trading day and moving holiday (e.g. Easter) influences from the original series. Seasonal adjustment does not aim to remove the irregular or non-seasonal influences which may be present in any month. These irregular influences may reflect both random economic events and difficulties of statistical recording.

The seasonally adjusted statistics in this publication use the concurrent seasonal adjustment technique and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling to estimate factors for the current and previous months. Under concurrent seasonal adjustment, the estimates of seasonal factors are updated as new or revised original estimates become available each period. The seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revisions as the estimates of seasonal factors are improved.

The month-to-month movements of the seasonally adjusted estimates may not be reliable indicators of underlying behaviour because they include irregular or non-seasonal movements. Trend estimates reduce the effect of these movements as they are derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. The 13-term Henderson moving average (like all Henderson averages) is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the average are applied. While the asymmetric weights enable trend estimates for recent months to be produced, it does result in revisions to the estimates for the most recent six months as additional observations become available. Revisions to trend estimates can also occur because of revisions to the original data and because of the re-estimation of the seasonal factors. Trend estimates should be used with caution, especially around the time of unusual influences, until these have been appropriately considered.

Information papers and articles on time series methods are available on the ABS website:

• for seasonal adjustment methods, see Time Series Analysis Frequently Asked Questions
• for ARIMA modelling, see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions in the October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators 

for trend estimates methods, see Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series - Monitoring Trends.

Consistent with BPM6 conventions, balance of payments basis credit entries are shown with an implied positive sign and debit items are shown as negative entries. For statistics on an international merchandise trade basis, both imports and exports are shown without signage. The calculation of percentage changes on balance of payments debit items are made without regard to sign. Percentage change is not applicable if there is a change from surplus to deficit or vice versa.

Where figures have been rounded, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Percentage movements are calculated from data at the level of precision presented in this publication (i.e. $m) except for international merchandise trade tables.

Statistics on Australia's international trade in goods are compiled and presented in accordance with international standards. The main standards include:

• the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6)
• the United Nations (UN) International Merchandise Trade Statistics, Concepts and Definitions, Statistical Papers, Series M, No. 52, Rev. 3, 2010 (IMTS Rev. 3)
• the World Customs Organisation (WCO) Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS)
• the United Nations (UN) Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 4 (SITC Rev. 4)

Extensions and adjustments to the international classifications and standards consider domestic user requirements. Where possible, data are validated against independent sources both within the ABS and externally. For example, the media is monitored for large transactions in activities in exports and imports of goods and changes in commodity prices. The ABS provides aggregated statistics (by partner country where possible) to international organisations including the IMF and the OECD, who reconcile information from all countries.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in this publication are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). At the time of initial reporting to Home Affairs, the final prices at which transactions take place are not known for some commodities. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs.

For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. When additional information on quantity and/or unit price for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Iron ore adjustments are applied on an international merchandise trade basis at the Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification (AHECC) level. Coal, coke and briquettes are adjusted on a balance of payments basis in current price, original terms. When final transaction information becomes available the adjusted estimates are replaced with these data.

In most instances, transfer of ownership occurs when goods cross the customs frontier. In certain circumstances the change of ownership of large value capital expenditure items can occur prior to the items crossing the customs frontier. The ABS may adjust the relevant balance of payments series to record the timing when transfer of ownership was affected.

The ABS makes historical quarterly time series for its international accounts available dating back to 1959. Key monthly time series date back to 1971 for balance of payments data, and 1988 for international merchandise trade data. When changes in source data, methodology or statistical techniques are introduced, historical time series are revised back as far as reasonable.

The monthly International Trade in Goods publication is released in the first week after the next calendar month, generally around 4 to 6 weeks after the end of the reference month. 

In general, source data used in the compilation of international merchandise trade data and balance of payments statistics are timely. Goods data are collected on a monthly basis.

The ABS uses a variety of methods to routinely assess the information from administrative data and surveys. Sound data collection and methodological systems, conformity to international standard frameworks and the use of analytical tools all contribute to high quality outputs. Nevertheless, the data may not be accurate for a number of reasons. Data based on administrative data sources are subject to classification, processing, coverage and timing adjustments and modelling where required. International merchandise trade statistics are primarily compiled from customs documentation submitted by exporters and importers or their agents to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). Adjustments for coverage, timing and valuation are made to international merchandise trade data to convert them to a balance of payments basis. While the Department of Home Affairs and the ABS apply various quality assurance checks to ensure that merchandise trade statistics are timely and fit for purpose at aggregate levels, most transactions included are ‘as reported to Customs”. Care should be exercised in the use and interpretation of detailed international merchandise trade estimates.

The general policy adopted in relation to revisions is to incorporate more accurate estimates into the data as they become available. To minimise disruption to the historical time series:

• revisions to goods credits and debits affecting periods prior to the previous financial year incorporated in the August issue of International Trade in Goods
• revisions to international merchandise trade statistics are generally only applied to the six months preceding the current month.
   

For further information please refer to International Merchandise Trade, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods.

This publication presents data on goods credits and debits, to be used in the current account of the balance of payments. Gross credits and debits series for goods are presented distinct from each other. Time series data, in current prices, are provided in original, seasonally adjusted and trend terms.

International merchandise trade statistics provide detailed commodity statistics according to several classifications. Time series data are presented in original terms only.

For more information on seasonal adjustment and trend estimation, please refer to the Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series - Monitoring Trends.

This release also provides advice on any changes which may be occurring. Also, if major changes are anticipated to any of the classifications, information papers associated with the publication are released in advance to advise the change and implementation plans.

The International Merchandise Trade, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods provide users with detailed information on these accounts. They describe the conceptual framework underlying the statistics, classification of data items, presentations and publications. Information is also presented on data sources, compilation methodologies, data quality, relationships with national accounts and emerging issues.

International trade in goods statistics are published monthly. Tables are available in spreadsheet format, many with data series beginning in July 1971. 

Detailed data by commodity, country, and state on an International Merchandise Trade basis is available in Data Explorer, a free and flexible online tool. For user assistance on how to use Data Explorer, see the Data Explorer user guide.

More detailed data are available on request as a 'user pays' service which can be tailored to suit individual requirements. For enquiries about these and related statistics, contact the Customer Assistance Service via the ABS website Contact Us page. The ABS Privacy Policy outlines how the ABS will handle any personal information that you provide to us.

The release of statistics for certain merchandise trade commodities is restricted to prevent the identification of the activities of an individual business, where this is requested by the business concerned. These restrictions do not affect the total value of exports and imports, but they can affect statistics at the country, state and commodity levels, and other details only available on request such as Australian ports. For information on the confidentiality restrictions applied to the merchandise trade statistics in this publication, refer to Table 92 - Confidential Commodities List in the data downloads. For further information on the confidentiality of international trade in goods statistics refer to International Merchandise Trade, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods. 

Exports data that have the confidentiality restrictions 'No commodity details' or 'No value details' are now aggregated into a single confidential commodity code. For data prior to June 2013, these data are added back into the appropriate state total and country total (i.e. these totals show the correct level of trade). From June 2013 these confidential data are not added back. Instead the confidential data are published as 'No country details' in the country totals and 'State of origin not available' or 'State not available for publication' in the state totals. Therefore, country and state totals from June 2013 may not represent the actual amount of trade in each country/state but only the trade in commodities without a 'No commodity details' or 'No value details' restriction.

Imports data that have the confidentiality restrictions 'No commodity details' or 'No value details' are aggregated into a single confidential commodity code. For data prior to September 2008, these data are added back into the appropriate state total and country total (i.e. these totals show the correct level of trade). From September 2008 these confidential data are not added back. Instead the confidential data are published as 'No country details' in the country totals and 'State of destination not available' or 'State not available for publication' in the state totals. Therefore, country and state totals from September 2008 may not represent the actual amount of trade in each country/state but only the trade in commodities without a 'No commodity details' or 'No value details' restriction.

The conceptual framework used in compiling Australia's international merchandise trade statistics can be found in International Merchandise Trade, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods.

The conceptual framework used in compiling Australia's balance of payments statistics is based on the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6). Descriptions of the underlying concepts and structure of the balance of payments and the sources, methods and terms used in compiling estimates are presented in the publication Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods. Information on the key changes introduced with BPM6 can be found in the Information paper: Implementation of new international statistical standards in the ABS National and International Accounts.

To bring international merchandise trade statistics to a balance of payments basis, timing adjustments are made to ensure that the transaction is recorded in the period in which ownership changed, rather than in the period in which the transaction was recorded by Home Affairs or the period in which the goods arrived in/departed from an Australian port. Adjustments are also made to account for the change of ownership of goods not included in merchandise trade statistics. Chapter 6 of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 1998 provides more detail on the relationship between statistics on an international merchandise trade basis and on a balance of payments basis.

International merchandise trade statistics on an merchandise trade basis are presented using the following commodity classifications:

• the Harmonized System 2022 (available on request)
• the Standard International Trade Classification Revision 4 (SITC Rev. 4)
• the Classification by Broad Economic Categories (BEC)
• the industry classification: Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification, 2006 (ANZSIC 06) from July 2005.
   

Balance of payments 'goods' statistics are presented according to two classifications derived from SITC Rev. 4 and BEC. The classifications are:

• the Balance of Payments Commodities for Exports (BoPCE)
• the Balance of Payments Broad Economic Categories (BoPBEC) for Imports

For details of the classifications used to present goods exports (credits) and imports (debits) on a balance of payments basis, see tables 6.6 and 6.7 in commodity classification of chapter 6, respectively, in Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 1998.

From the September 2023 reference month release, international trade in services data is no longer produced on a monthly basis. A guide for users to compile monthly international trade in services estimates is available, refer to the attached article, Monthly International Trade in Services compilation guide.

There are a range of information papers, notes, publications and feature articles that provide information on a number of data quality issues. These include changes to the classifications, systems, concepts, standards or methodology, major data revisions and changes in data dissemination practices. The purpose of this information is to supplement and update the concepts, sources and methods.

• Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Monthly goods credits and debits series contribute to quarterly statistics on Australia's balance of payments and international investment position.
• International Trade Price Indexes, Australia: Contains indexes measuring changes in prices of imports of merchandise landed in Australia and exports of merchandise shipped from Australia
• Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods: Outlines the conceptual framework, data sources, and methods used to compile the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position.
• International Merchandise Trade, Australia: Concepts, Sources and Methods: Outlines the conceptual framework for Australia's international merchandise trade statistics and the data sources and methods used to compile them.
• International Trade in Services; Concepts, Sources and Methods: Outlines the conceptual framework for Australia’s international trade in services statistics and the definitions, data sources and methods used to compile them. 

More detailed balance of payments and international merchandise trade data, including forward seasonal factors are available as time series spreadsheets or data cubes from the ABS website. International merchandise trade data by commodity, country and state that are not on the ABS website may be available on request. Make enquiries by calling 1300 135 070 or completing a Consultancy request form. The ABS Privacy Policy outlines how the ABS will handle any personal information that you provide to us.