Online sales, May 2021 - Supplementary COVID-19 analysis

To enhance the understanding of the economic impacts of COVID-19, additional analysis of online sales in the retail series was undertaken.

Released

5/07/2021

Source

Retail Trade, Australia, May 2021

Released

05/07/2021 11:30am AEST

The Retail Trade survey has been collecting online sales since the March quarter 2013. The Online series is published as grouped industry split; a Food group (including the Food retailing, and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services), and a Non-food group (all other industries). Due to the limitations of online data collection, a finer split by industry is not possible at this stage.

Online sales have become increasingly popular during the COVID-19 pandemic. Restrictions placed on the operation of physical retail stores saw both businesses and consumers turn to online retailing.

It is worth noting that retailers have had to adapt sales channels very quickly during the pandemic, and it is possible that the value of online purchases has been under-reported since April 2020. Importantly, total retail sales will not be under-reported.

The Online series remains experimental, and caution should be used in interpreting the results, especially during this volatile period.

Total online retail

Total online sales fell 4.8% in May 2021, in seasonally adjusted terms, following a fall of 4.1% in April 2021, and rise of 2.0% in March 2021.

Total online, original and seasonally adjusted
	Original ($m)	Seasonally Adjusted ($m)
Jan-15	665.5	709.1
Feb-15	615.5	719.8
Mar-15	719.4	750.6
Apr-15	697.1	753.3
May-15	740.1	765.7
Jun-15	790.5	788.6
Jul-15	750.9	772.2
Aug-15	760.8	792.4
Sep-15	794.6	797.6
Oct-15	789.3	762.9
Nov-15	892.7	777.8
Dec-15	998.9	805.4
Jan-16	780.6	845.3
Feb-16	732.2	821.9
Mar-16	810.6	835.6
Apr-16	771.4	855.1
May-16	840.4	859.8
Jun-16	904.1	886.7
Jul-16	827.3	876.5
Aug-16	871.8	891
Sep-16	923.8	926.3
Oct-16	986	958.7
Nov-16	1,108.8	956.5
Dec-16	1,265.1	1,025.8
Jan-17	903	977.5
Feb-17	825.4	966.7
Mar-17	939.1	964.1
Apr-17	862	952.1
May-17	1,000.7	1,007.6
Jun-17	1,039.3	1,032.4
Jul-17	1,048.2	1,095
Aug-17	1,133.8	1,149.4
Sep-17	1,109.3	1,140.3
Oct-17	1,234.8	1,199.1
Nov-17	1,510.6	1,265.8
Dec-17	1,601.8	1,323.2
Jan-18	1,229.4	1,330.4
Feb-18	1,201.2	1,416
Mar-18	1,360.6	1,431.3
Apr-18	1,351.9	1,464.7
May-18	1,483.5	1,485.7
Jun-18	1,484	1,509.1
Jul-18	1,447.6	1,500.9
Aug-18	1,499	1,493.7
Sep-18	1,485.4	1,528.1
Oct-18	1,621.5	1,566.7
Nov-18	1,929.6	1,626.6
Dec-18	1,950.6	1,611.4
Jan-19	1,520.1	1,655.3
Feb-19	1,388	1,638.5
Mar-19	1,560.7	1,654.8
Apr-19	1,513.8	1,656.9
May-19	1,693.1	1,673.3
Jun-19	1,659.1	1,683.1
Jul-19	1,680.5	1,722
Aug-19	1,737.6	1,751
Sep-19	1,758.3	1,777.6
Oct-19	1,867.2	1,807.4
Nov-19	2,118.4	1,815.2
Dec-19	2,306.7	1,916.3
Jan-20	1,712.5	1,852.7
Feb-20	1,675.8	1,933.2
Mar-20	2,069	2,191.6
Apr-20	2,615.4	2,790.8
May-20	2,859.1	2,876.2
Jun-20	2,766.6	2,814.7
Jul-20	2,950.5	2,981.4
Aug-20	3,135.7	3,129.5
Sep-20	3,010	3,082.5
Oct-20	3,157.6	3,084.5
Nov-20	3,632.1	3,032.8
Dec-20	3,548.7	2,962.6
Jan-21	2,740.4	3,015.5
Feb-21	2,496.6	2,949.4
Mar-21	2,856.7	3,008.5
Apr-21	2,677.1	2,884.9
May-21	2,759.4	2,745.9

Total online, original and seasonally adjusted

["","Original","Seasonally Adjusted"]

[["Jan-15","Feb-15","Mar-15","Apr-15","May-15","Jun-15","Jul-15","Aug-15","Sep-15","Oct-15","Nov-15","Dec-15","Jan-16","Feb-16","Mar-16","Apr-16","May-16","Jun-16","Jul-16","Aug-16","Sep-16","Oct-16","Nov-16","Dec-16","Jan-17","Feb-17","Mar-17","Apr-17","May-17","Jun-17","Jul-17","Aug-17","Sep-17","Oct-17","Nov-17","Dec-17","Jan-18","Feb-18","Mar-18","Apr-18","May-18","Jun-18","Jul-18","Aug-18","Sep-18","Oct-18","Nov-18","Dec-18","Jan-19","Feb-19","Mar-19","Apr-19","May-19","Jun-19","Jul-19","Aug-19","Sep-19","Oct-19","Nov-19","Dec-19","Jan-20","Feb-20","Mar-20","Apr-20","May-20","Jun-20","Jul-20","Aug-20","Sep-20","Oct-20","Nov-20","Dec-20","Jan-21","Feb-21","Mar-21","Apr-21","May-21"],[[665.5],[615.5],[719.4],[697.1],[740.1],[790.5],[750.9],[760.8],[794.6],[789.3],[892.7],[998.9],[780.6],[732.2],[810.6],[771.4],[840.4],[904.1],[827.3],[871.8],[923.8],[986],[1108.8],[1265.1],[903],[825.4],[939.1],[862],[1000.7],[1039.3],[1048.2],[1133.8],[1109.3],[1234.8],[1510.6],[1601.8],[1229.4],[1201.2],[1360.6],[1351.9],[1483.5],[1484],[1447.6],[1499],[1485.4],[1621.5],[1929.6],[1950.6],[1520.1],[1388],[1560.7],[1513.8],[1693.1],[1659.1],[1680.5],[1737.6],[1758.3],[1867.2],[2118.4],[2306.7],[1712.5],[1675.8],[2069],[2615.4],[2859.1],[2766.6],[2950.5],[3135.7],[3010],[3157.6],[3632.1],[3548.7],[2740.4],[2496.6],[2856.7],[2677.1],[2759.4]],[[709.1],[719.8],[750.6],[753.3],[765.7],[788.6],[772.2],[792.4],[797.6],[762.9],[777.8],[805.4],[845.3],[821.9],[835.6],[855.1],[859.8],[886.7],[876.5],[891],[926.3],[958.7],[956.5],[1025.8],[977.5],[966.7],[964.1],[952.1],[1007.6],[1032.4],[1095],[1149.4],[1140.3],[1199.1],[1265.8],[1323.2],[1330.4],[1416],[1431.3],[1464.7],[1485.7],[1509.1],[1500.9],[1493.7],[1528.1],[1566.7],[1626.6],[1611.4],[1655.3],[1638.5],[1654.8],[1656.9],[1673.3],[1683.1],[1722],[1751],[1777.6],[1807.4],[1815.2],[1916.3],[1852.7],[1933.2],[2191.6],[2790.8],[2876.2],[2814.7],[2981.4],[3129.5],[3082.5],[3084.5],[3032.8],[2962.6],[3015.5],[2949.4],[3008.5],[2884.9],[2745.9]]]

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In through-the-year terms, seasonally adjusted, online sales are down 4.5% on May 2020. This is compared to April 2021, when sales were up 3.4% on the same month last year. Through-the year growth rates continue to fluctuate as they did in 2020 when online sales were boosted as bricks and mortar stores were closed. With sporadic lockdowns continuing and physical stores being closed again, it is likely that there will be another pick-up in online sales.

Total online, seasonally adjusted, through-the-year
	Seasonally adjusted (%)
Jan-15	29.7
Feb-15	23.8
Mar-15	34.5
Apr-15	31.4
May-15	29.5
Jun-15	31.9
Jul-15	24.7
Aug-15	25.7
Sep-15	22.6
Oct-15	12.8
Nov-15	15.1
Dec-15	17.0
Jan-16	19.2
Feb-16	14.2
Mar-16	11.3
Apr-16	13.5
May-16	12.3
Jun-16	12.4
Jul-16	13.5
Aug-16	12.4
Sep-16	16.1
Oct-16	25.7
Nov-16	23.0
Dec-16	27.4
Jan-17	15.6
Feb-17	17.6
Mar-17	15.4
Apr-17	11.3
May-17	17.2
Jun-17	16.4
Jul-17	24.9
Aug-17	29.0
Sep-17	23.1
Oct-17	25.1
Nov-17	32.3
Dec-17	29.0
Jan-18	36.1
Feb-18	46.5
Mar-18	48.5
Apr-18	53.8
May-18	47.4
Jun-18	46.2
Jul-18	37.1
Aug-18	30.0
Sep-18	34.0
Oct-18	30.7
Nov-18	28.5
Dec-18	21.8
Jan-19	24.4
Feb-19	15.7
Mar-19	15.6
Apr-19	13.1
May-19	12.6
Jun-19	11.5
Jul-19	14.7
Aug-19	17.2
Sep-19	16.3
Oct-19	15.4
Nov-19	11.6
Dec-19	18.9
Jan-20	11.9
Feb-20	18.0
Mar-20	32.4
Apr-20	68.4
May-20	71.9
Jun-20	67.2
Jul-20	73.1
Aug-20	78.7
Sep-20	73.4
Oct-20	70.7
Nov-20	67.1
Dec-20	54.6
Jan-21	62.8
Feb-21	52.6
Mar-21	37.3
Apr-21	3.4
May-21	-4.5

Total online, seasonally adjusted, through-the-year

["","Seasonally adjusted"]

[["Jan-15","Feb-15","Mar-15","Apr-15","May-15","Jun-15","Jul-15","Aug-15","Sep-15","Oct-15","Nov-15","Dec-15","Jan-16","Feb-16","Mar-16","Apr-16","May-16","Jun-16","Jul-16","Aug-16","Sep-16","Oct-16","Nov-16","Dec-16","Jan-17","Feb-17","Mar-17","Apr-17","May-17","Jun-17","Jul-17","Aug-17","Sep-17","Oct-17","Nov-17","Dec-17","Jan-18","Feb-18","Mar-18","Apr-18","May-18","Jun-18","Jul-18","Aug-18","Sep-18","Oct-18","Nov-18","Dec-18","Jan-19","Feb-19","Mar-19","Apr-19","May-19","Jun-19","Jul-19","Aug-19","Sep-19","Oct-19","Nov-19","Dec-19","Jan-20","Feb-20","Mar-20","Apr-20","May-20","Jun-20","Jul-20","Aug-20","Sep-20","Oct-20","Nov-20","Dec-20","Jan-21","Feb-21","Mar-21","Apr-21","May-21"],[[29.7],[23.8],[34.5],[31.4],[29.5],[31.9],[24.7],[25.7],[22.6],[12.8],[15.1],[17],[19.2],[14.2],[11.3],[13.5],[12.3],[12.4],[13.5],[12.4],[16.1],[25.7],[23],[27.4],[15.6],[17.6],[15.4],[11.3],[17.2],[16.4],[24.9],[29],[23.1],[25.1],[32.3],[29],[36.1],[46.5],[48.5],[53.8],[47.4],[46.2],[37.1],[30],[34],[30.7],[28.5],[21.8],[24.4],[15.7],[15.6],[13.1],[12.6],[11.5],[14.7],[17.2],[16.3],[15.4],[11.6],[18.9],[11.9],[18],[32.4],[68.4],[71.9],[67.2],[73.1],[78.7],[73.4],[70.7],[67.1],[54.6],[62.8],[52.6],[37.3],[3.4],[-4.5]]]

[]

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Food and Non-food

Online sales fell for both the Food group (-11.5%), and the Non-food group (-1.9%) in May 2021, in seasonally adjusted terms.

Non-food online sales, seasonally adjusted, are down 9.0% compared to May 2020, whereas seasonally adjusted Food online sales remain elevated in through-the-year terms, up 9.0% compared to May 2020.

Online sales, Food and Non-food, seasonally adjusted
	Food ($m)	Non-food ($m)
Jan-15	172.5	536.6
Feb-15	174.9	544.9
Mar-15	182.9	567.7
Apr-15	185.2	568.1
May-15	187.5	578.2
Jun-15	196.9	591.7
Jul-15	203.8	568.4
Aug-15	209.5	582.9
Sep-15	216.2	581.4
Oct-15	211.4	551.5
Nov-15	211	566.9
Dec-15	222.6	582.8
Jan-16	208.1	637.2
Feb-16	211.6	610.4
Mar-16	211	624.6
Apr-16	218.4	636.7
May-16	208.3	651.5
Jun-16	213	673.7
Jul-16	210.9	665.5
Aug-16	221.9	669.1
Sep-16	221.6	704.6
Oct-16	234	724.6
Nov-16	240.7	715.8
Dec-16	246.5	779.3
Jan-17	262	715.5
Feb-17	261.3	705.4
Mar-17	251.5	712.6
Apr-17	273	679.1
May-17	280.4	727.2
Jun-17	289.9	742.5
Jul-17	285.6	809.4
Aug-17	282.5	866.9
Sep-17	286.1	854.2
Oct-17	294.3	904.8
Nov-17	308.2	957.7
Dec-17	325.6	997.7
Jan-18	334.4	996
Feb-18	350.2	1,065.8
Mar-18	354.6	1,076.7
Apr-18	358.7	1,106
May-18	365	1,120.7
Jun-18	367.5	1,141.6
Jul-18	379.9	1,121
Aug-18	383.2	1,110.5
Sep-18	386.7	1,141.4
Oct-18	385.3	1,181.4
Nov-18	413.9	1,212.7
Dec-18	429.5	1,181.8
Jan-19	433.1	1,222.2
Feb-19	428.7	1,209.9
Mar-19	441.5	1,213.4
Apr-19	434.9	1,222
May-19	447.4	1,225.9
Jun-19	449.3	1,233.8
Jul-19	452.8	1,269.2
Aug-19	462.7	1,288.3
Sep-19	480.6	1,296.9
Oct-19	520.6	1,286.8
Nov-19	491.7	1,323.4
Dec-19	488.6	1,427.7
Jan-20	510.3	1,342.3
Feb-20	543.7	1,389.5
Mar-20	519.7	1,671.8
Apr-20	601.6	2,189.2
May-20	714.4	2,161.7
Jun-20	759	2,055.7
Jul-20	809	2,172.4
Aug-20	855.5	2,274
Sep-20	869.8	2,212.7
Oct-20	869.3	2,215.2
Nov-20	809.5	2,223.3
Dec-20	862.4	2,100.2
Jan-21	897.6	2,117.8
Feb-21	882.6	2,066.8
Mar-21	930.4	2,078.1
Apr-21	880.1	2,004.8
May-21	778.8	1,967.2

Online sales, Food and Non-food, seasonally adjusted

["","Food","Non-food"]

[["Jan-15","Feb-15","Mar-15","Apr-15","May-15","Jun-15","Jul-15","Aug-15","Sep-15","Oct-15","Nov-15","Dec-15","Jan-16","Feb-16","Mar-16","Apr-16","May-16","Jun-16","Jul-16","Aug-16","Sep-16","Oct-16","Nov-16","Dec-16","Jan-17","Feb-17","Mar-17","Apr-17","May-17","Jun-17","Jul-17","Aug-17","Sep-17","Oct-17","Nov-17","Dec-17","Jan-18","Feb-18","Mar-18","Apr-18","May-18","Jun-18","Jul-18","Aug-18","Sep-18","Oct-18","Nov-18","Dec-18","Jan-19","Feb-19","Mar-19","Apr-19","May-19","Jun-19","Jul-19","Aug-19","Sep-19","Oct-19","Nov-19","Dec-19","Jan-20","Feb-20","Mar-20","Apr-20","May-20","Jun-20","Jul-20","Aug-20","Sep-20","Oct-20","Nov-20","Dec-20","Jan-21","Feb-21","Mar-21","Apr-21","May-21"],[[172.5],[174.9],[182.9],[185.2],[187.5],[196.9],[203.8],[209.5],[216.2],[211.4],[211],[222.6],[208.1],[211.6],[211],[218.4],[208.3],[213],[210.9],[221.9],[221.6],[234],[240.7],[246.5],[262],[261.3],[251.5],[273],[280.4],[289.9],[285.6],[282.5],[286.1],[294.3],[308.2],[325.6],[334.4],[350.2],[354.6],[358.7],[365],[367.5],[379.9],[383.2],[386.7],[385.3],[413.9],[429.5],[433.1],[428.7],[441.5],[434.9],[447.4],[449.3],[452.8],[462.7],[480.6],[520.6],[491.7],[488.6],[510.3],[543.7],[519.7],[601.6],[714.4],[759],[809],[855.5],[869.8],[869.3],[809.5],[862.4],[897.6],[882.6],[930.4],[880.1],[778.8]],[[536.6],[544.9],[567.7],[568.1],[578.2],[591.7],[568.4],[582.9],[581.4],[551.5],[566.9],[582.8],[637.2],[610.4],[624.6],[636.7],[651.5],[673.7],[665.5],[669.1],[704.6],[724.6],[715.8],[779.3],[715.5],[705.4],[712.6],[679.1],[727.2],[742.5],[809.4],[866.9],[854.2],[904.8],[957.7],[997.7],[996],[1065.8],[1076.7],[1106],[1120.7],[1141.6],[1121],[1110.5],[1141.4],[1181.4],[1212.7],[1181.8],[1222.2],[1209.9],[1213.4],[1222],[1225.9],[1233.8],[1269.2],[1288.3],[1296.9],[1286.8],[1323.4],[1427.7],[1342.3],[1389.5],[1671.8],[2189.2],[2161.7],[2055.7],[2172.4],[2274],[2212.7],[2215.2],[2223.3],[2100.2],[2117.8],[2066.8],[2078.1],[2004.8],[1967.2]]]

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As a proportion of total group industry turnover, Non-food online sales were 14.2% of total Non-food sales in May 2021, in original terms. The proportion of total Food sales made online was 4.9% in May 2021, in original terms.

Total online sales were 9.1% of total sales in May 2021, falling slightly from April 2021 (9.2%). The portion of sales made online has declined when compared to May 2020 (10.1%).

Proportion of industry group turnover online, original
	Food (%)	Non-food (%)	Total (%)
Feb-20	3.4	10.9	6.6
Mar-20	3.1	13	7.1
Apr-20	4.1	20.5	11.1
May-20	5	16.1	10.1
Jun-20	4.9	15	9.7
Jul-20	5.2	15.2	9.8
Aug-20	5.8	17.6	11
Sep-20	5.7	16.8	10.6
Oct-20	5.3	16.6	10.4
Nov-20	5.2	16.8	11
Dec-20	4.5	13.6	9.1
Jan-21	5.2	13.9	9.1
Feb-21	5.4	14.2	9.3
Mar-21	5.6	14.1	9.4
Apr-21	5.1	14	9.2
May-21	4.9	14.2	9.1

Proportion of industry group turnover online, original

["","Food","Non-food","Total"]

[["Feb-20","Mar-20","Apr-20","May-20","Jun-20","Jul-20","Aug-20","Sep-20","Oct-20","Nov-20","Dec-20","Jan-21","Feb-21","Mar-21","Apr-21","May-21"],[[3.4],[3.1],[4.1],[5],[4.9],[5.2],[5.8],[5.7],[5.3],[5.2],[4.5],[5.2],[5.4],[5.6],[5.1],[4.9]],[[10.9],[13],[20.5],[16.1],[15],[15.2],[17.6],[16.8],[16.6],[16.8],[13.6],[13.9],[14.2],[14.1],[14],[14.2]],[[6.6],[7.1],[11.1],[10.1],[9.7],[9.8],[11],[10.6],[10.4],[11],[9.1],[9.1],[9.3],[9.4],[9.2],[9.1]]]

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Changes to the online series

The data was previously published as an experimental series, in original data only, as an Appendix to the Retail Trade publication. It was disaggregated by whether the retailer was "Pure-play" (online only) or "Multi-channel" (mix of online and physical stores).

Over time, the split between Pure-play and Multi-channel remained stable, with Pure-play online retailers averaging 37.7% of total online sales.

In May 2021, Pure-play retailers made up 33.1% of online sales and 3.0% of total sales. Online sales for multi-channel retailers made up 6.1% of total retail sales.

The online series continues to use the same source data, and represents purchases made via the internet from employing retail businesses who predominately sell to households. The series excludes direct imports (e.g. purchased directly from an overseas website) and sales from 'households-to-households' through third party websites for example. More information can be found in the information paper Measurement of Online Retail Trade in Macroeconomics (cat. no. 8501.0.55.007).

Seasonal adjustment has been calculated for the new series using the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. Unusual real-world events, such as COVID-19, can distort estimates calculated using the method. Like the total retail series, trend cannot be calculated due to the volatility of the retail series during COVID-19.

APA

Citation

Online sales, May 2021 - Supplementary COVID-19 analysis

APA

Citation

Total online retail

Food and Non-food

Changes to the online series

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