International and state economies during the September quarter 2021

Released

1/12/2021

Source

Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, September 2021

Released

01/12/2021 11:30am AEDT

International comparisons

The economic impact of COVID-19 continued to diverge across countries over the September quarter 2021. GDP for a number of OECD economies remained below pre-pandemic levels, despite growth over the quarter. For Australia, GDP fell to below pre-pandemic levels after several regions were adversely impacted by lockdown restrictions. Out of the 27 OECD countries that have released September quarter results, Australia ranked 17th in GDP growth from December 2019 (pre-COVID) levels.

Figure 1: Growth in GDP over the September quarter 2021 and from pre-COVID-19 levels (December quarter 2019)
	Growth since Dec-19 (%)	Growth since Jun-21 (%)
Australia	-0.2	-1.9
South Korea	1.7	0.3
United States	1.4	0.5
France	0.0	3.1
European Union	-0.3	2.1
Germany	-1.1	1.6
Italy	-1.3	2.6
Canada	-1.6	0.5
United Kingdom	-2.0	1.3
Japan	-2.3	-0.7

Figure 1: Growth in GDP over the September quarter 2021 and from pre-COVID-19 levels (December quarter 2019)

["","Growth since Dec-19","Growth since Jun-21"]

[["Australia","South Korea","United States","France","European Union","Germany","Italy","Canada","United Kingdom","Japan"],[[-0.2],[1.7],[1.4],[0],[-0.3],[-1.1],[-1.3],[-1.6],[-2],[-2.3]],[[-1.9],[0.3],[0.5],[3.1],[2.1],[1.6],[2.6],[0.5],[1.3],[-0.7]]]

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Data from https://data.oecd.org/gdp/quarterly-gdp.htm, 26 November 2021, in seasonally adjusted volume measures.

Australian state economies and mobility

In Australia, the September quarter was marked by extended lockdowns across New South Wales, Victoria, and the Australian Capital Territory, as well as several short lockdowns in the Northern Territory, Queensland, and South Australia.

Google mobility data tracks how visits and length of stay at various locations have changed relative to pre-pandemic mobility. Figure 2 shows the changes in mobility to retail and recreation locations as the stringency of state COVID-19 containment measures changed over June to September.

Figure 2: Change in retail and recreation mobility from pre-pandemic levels and key quarterly dates, June to September 2021
	NSW (%)	Vic. (%)	Qld (%)	SA (%)	NT (%)	ACT (%)
31/05/2021	-7.1	-45.1	0.0	0.9	28.4	-0.9
07/06/2021	-6.7	-31.1	0.1	-0.1	31.3	2.0
14/06/2021	-8.4	-17.6	1.0	-2.1	30.9	0.6
21/06/2021	-18.6	-15.9	1.6	-0.9	33.3	1.4
28/06/2021	-34.6	-13.9	-14.0	-1.9	-11.7	-6.9
05/07/2021	-35.4	-11.3	4.0	2.7	30.3	0.6
12/07/2021	-38.6	-31.1	4.4	3.3	39.0	0.0
19/07/2021	-41.9	-47.4	3.7	-43.6	37.9	-0.1
26/07/2021	-40.6	-21.3	-5.0	-16.6	37.3	0.9
02/08/2021	-40.9	-30.6	-26.3	-1.6	37.4	2.7
09/08/2021	-43.1	-37.9	-0.1	0.7	36.6	-26.9
16/08/2021	-47.7	-41.6	1.3	1.9	9.9	-58.0
23/08/2021	-48.4	-46.7	1.6	1.0	35.7	-57.0
30/08/2021	-44.7	-43.6	3.7	3.1	32.4	-53.1
06/09/2021	-42.6	-40.0	2.3	1.9	27.7	-48.1
13/09/2021	-39.4	-37.0	3.1	3.3	27.6	-45.6
20/09/2021	-37.3	-37.6	4.3	2.6	25.0	-42.6
27/09/2021	-36.3	-36.3	3.6	3.9	25.6	-42.9

Darwin lockdown 27th June - 2nd July
Greater Sydney locked down for the entire September quarter from 26th June
South East Queensland lockdown 31st July - 8th August
SA lockdown 20th - 27th July
Darwin lockdown 16th - 19th August
Victoria lockdown 16th - 27th July
Melbourne lockdown 5th August - 21st October
ACT lockdown 12th August - 15th October
Regional NSW lockdown 14th August - 11th September

Figure 2: Change in retail and recreation mobility from pre-pandemic levels and key quarterly dates, June to September 2021

["","NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","NT","ACT"]

[["31\/05\/2021","07\/06\/2021","14\/06\/2021","21\/06\/2021","28\/06\/2021","05\/07\/2021","12\/07\/2021","19\/07\/2021","26\/07\/2021","02\/08\/2021","09\/08\/2021","16\/08\/2021","23\/08\/2021","30\/08\/2021","06\/09\/2021","13\/09\/2021","20\/09\/2021","27\/09\/2021"],[[-7.1],[-6.7],[-8.4],[-18.6],[-34.6],[-35.4],[-38.6],[-41.9],[-40.6],[-40.9],[-43.1],[-47.7],[-48.4],[-44.7],[-42.6],[-39.4],[-37.3],[-36.3]],[[-45.1],[-31.1],[-17.6],[-15.9],[-13.9],[-11.3],[-31.1],[-47.4],[-21.3],[-30.6],[-37.9],[-41.6],[-46.7],[-43.6],[-40],[-37],[-37.6],[-36.3]],[[0],[0.1],[1],[1.6],[-14],[4],[4.4],[3.7],[-5],[-26.3],[-0.1],[1.3],[1.6],[3.7],[2.3],[3.1],[4.3],[3.6]],[[0.9],[-0.1],[-2.1],[-0.9],[-1.9],[2.7],[3.3],[-43.6],[-16.6],[-1.6],[0.7],[1.9],[1],[3.1],[1.9],[3.3],[2.6],[3.9]],[[28.4],[31.3],[30.9],[33.3],[-11.7],[30.3],[39],[37.9],[37.3],[37.4],[36.6],[9.9],[35.7],[32.4],[27.7],[27.6],[25],[25.6]],[[-0.9],[2],[0.6],[1.4],[-6.9],[0.6],[0],[-0.1],[0.9],[2.7],[-26.9],[-58],[-57],[-53.1],[-48.1],[-45.6],[-42.6],[-42.9]]]

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Mobility data shown as weekly averages. Data from: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 15/10/2021.

Increased restrictions across NSW, Victoria and the ACT were put in place following outbreaks of COVID-19 cases. These restrictions resulted in a dramatic decrease in mobility compared to the June quarter. Mobility in these regions began recovering towards the end of the quarter as vaccination targets were reached and limitations on movements were eased. In states with shorter lockdowns, such as South Australia and Queensland, mobility recovered quickly as lockdowns were lifted.

In regions where mobility was restricted due to lockdowns, the amount of time people spent at home increased. Figure 3 shows how retail and recreation mobility and time spent at residential places changed over the September quarter.

Figure 3: Quarterly change in retail and recreation mobility and time spent at residential places, June to September quarter 2021
	Retail and recreation mobility (%)	Time spent at residential places (%)
NSW	-35.1	14.2
Vic.	-18.2	7.2
Qld	1.1	1.4
SA	-2.2	2.3
WA	6.4	-0.7
Tas.	3.0	0.1
NT	5.9	0.8
ACT	-27.1	12.2

Figure 3: Quarterly change in retail and recreation mobility and time spent at residential places, June to September quarter 2021

["","Retail and recreation mobility","Time spent at residential places"]

[["NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","WA","Tas.","NT","ACT"],[[-35.1],[-18.2],[1.1],[-2.2],[6.4],[3],[5.9],[-27.1]],[[14.2],[7.2],[1.4],[2.3],[-0.7],[0.1],[0.8],[12.2]]]

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Household spending and mobility

The lower levels of retail and recreation mobility in states and territories with extended lockdowns coincided with a large fall in household consumption in September quarter. Large falls in household spending were recorded in NSW, Victoria, and the ACT as non-essential retail stores were closed and restrictions on gatherings were imposed. In South Australia, mobility recovered quickly following a one-week lockdown in July and household spending recorded a small rise. All other states and territories had increases in mobility and recorded commensurate rises in household consumption. Mobility and household spending for each state and territory, from June to the September quarter, is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Quarterly change in retail and recreation mobility and household consumption, June to September quarter 2021
	Retail and recreation mobility (RHS) (%)	Household consumption (LHS) (%)
NSW	-35.1	-10.8
Vic.	-18.2	-5.2
Qld	1.1	0.3
SA	-2.2	0.3
WA	6.4	1.9
Tas.	3.0	0.9
NT	5.9	0.5
ACT	-27.1	-11.1

Figure 4: Quarterly change in retail and recreation mobility and household consumption, June to September quarter 2021

["","Retail and recreation mobility (RHS)","Household consumption (LHS)"]

[["NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","WA","Tas.","NT","ACT"],[[-35.1],[-18.2],[1.1],[-2.2],[6.4],[3],[5.9],[-27.1]],[[-10.8],[-5.2],[0.3],[0.3],[1.9],[0.9],[0.5],[-11.1]]]

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Household consumption in seasonally adjusted volume measures.

The lockdown restrictions in NSW, Victoria, and the ACT during the quarter significantly reduced consumption opportunities for households, particularly for discretionary goods and services. Spending on essential items also fell, but by a much smaller magnitude. Figure 5 shows the contribution of discretionary and essential consumption to growth in total household consumption this quarter.

Figure 5: Contributions to quarterly change in household consumption, June to September quarter 2021
	Total household consumption (ppt)	Discretionary goods and services consumption (ppt)	Essential goods and services consumption (ppt)
NSW	-10.8	-9.2	-1.6
Vic.	-5.2	-4.2	-0.9
Qld	0.3	-0.4	0.7
SA	0.3	-0.2	0.5
WA	1.9	1.3	0.6
Tas.	0.9	0.2	0.7
NT	0.5	-0.4	0.9
ACT	-11.1	-9.9	-1.3

Figure 5: Contributions to quarterly change in household consumption, June to September quarter 2021

["","Total household consumption","Discretionary goods and services consumption","Essential goods and services consumption"]

[["NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","WA","Tas.","NT","ACT"],[[-10.8],[-5.2],[0.3],[0.3],[1.9],[0.9],[0.5],[-11.1]],[[-9.2],[-4.2],[-0.4],[-0.2],[1.3],[0.2],[-0.4],[-9.9]],[[-1.6],[-0.9],[0.7],[0.5],[0.6],[0.7],[0.9],[-1.3]]]

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a. Household consumption in seasonally adjusted volume measures.

b. Contributions may not be additive due to rounding.

One consequence of the increased time spent at home was a substitution away from dining out towards preparing and consuming meals in the home. In the states and territories which experienced prolonged lockdown restrictions during the September quarter, purchases of food and alcohol for consumption at home rose with increased time spent at home, while expenditure on hotels, cafes and restaurants declined strongly (figure 6).

Figure 6: Quarterly change in time spent at residential places and household consumption categories, June to September quarter 2021
	Time spent at residential places (%)	Food and off-premises alcohol consumption (%)	Hotels, cafes and restaurants consumption (%)
NSW	14.2	9.8	-37.0
Vic.	7.2	7.0	-23.3
Qld	1.4	2.3	-10.8
SA	2.3	2.0	-6.0
WA	-0.7	0.0	-0.4
Tas.	0.1	1.2	-3.8
NT	0.8	0.8	-3.0
ACT	12.2	5.2	-32.7

Figure 6: Quarterly change in time spent at residential places and household consumption categories, June to September quarter 2021

["","Time spent at residential places","Food and off-premises alcohol consumption","Hotels, cafes and restaurants consumption "]

[["NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","WA","Tas.","NT","ACT"],[[14.2],[7.2],[1.4],[2.3],[-0.7],[0.1],[0.8],[12.2]],[[9.8],[7],[2.3],[2],[0],[1.2],[0.8],[5.2]],[[-37],[-23.3],[-10.8],[-6],[-0.4],[-3.8],[-3],[-32.7]]]

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Consumption categories in seasonally adjusted volume measures.

The COVID-19 outbreaks in NSW, Victoria and the ACT also led to the reclosure of state borders and subsequent declines in domestic tourism. This is reflected in sharp declines in transit station mobility and transport services consumption across most states over the quarter (figure 7).

Figure 7: Quarterly change in transit station mobility and transport services consumption, June to September quarter 2021
	Transit station mobility (%)	Transport services consumption (%)
NSW	-55.2	-50.8
Vic.	-39.2	-52.9
Qld	-22.2	-21.9
SA	-17.4	-25.1
WA	-1.3	-17.7
Tas.	-26.4	-39.1
NT	-9.6	-29.4
ACT	-44.8	-48.7

Figure 7: Quarterly change in transit station mobility and transport services consumption, June to September quarter 2021

["","Transit station mobility","Transport services consumption"]

[["NSW","Vic.","Qld","SA","WA","Tas.","NT","ACT"],[[-55.2],[-39.2],[-22.2],[-17.4],[-1.3],[-26.4],[-9.6],[-44.8]],[[-50.8],[-52.9],[-21.9],[-25.1],[-17.7],[-39.1],[-29.4],[-48.7]]]

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Transport services consumption in seasonally adjusted volume measures.

APA

Citation

International and state economies during the September quarter 2021

APA

Citation

International comparisons

Australian state economies and mobility

Household spending and mobility

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