The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the economic growth of Australia. The ABS article “Economic gains and losses over the COVID-19 pandemic” released as part of the Australian National Accounts, June quarter 2022 estimated the cumulative impact of the pandemic on the Australian Economy, comparing it to its pre-covid trend growth. This article builds on this work, examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic at a state and territory level based on estimates published in Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2021-22 on November 18, 2022.
The “pre-COVID trajectory” presented in this article has been calculated using the average of the annual growth rates from June 2014 to June 2019. This growth rate has been used to project estimates over the COVID-19 impacted period. The differences between the pre-COVID trajectory and the realised figures have been summed for June 2020, June 2021, and June 2022, to estimate the cumulative impact of the pandemic on the estimates.
Note: projections for the different components of Gross State Product (GSP) have been calculated independently from GSP itself. This means that the “pre-COVID trajectory” estimates are not additive and do not sum to the GSP “pre-COVID trajectory” estimate. As a result, the cumulative gains or losses from individual components will not sum to the cumulative gains or losses of the aggregate figures.
The analysis below examines the components of the GSP Expenditure and Income measures, to demonstrate how the cumulative losses (and gains) differed across the different regions in the Australian economy. Household income accounts and the resultant net savings are also analysed to explore the direct economic impact of the pandemic on households at a state/territory level.