Population Projections, Australia

Latest release

Population projections (based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration) for Australia, states and territories and capital cities

Reference period

2017 (base) - 2066

Released

22/11/2018

Next release Unknown

Key statistics

Australia's population in 2017 (24.6 million) is projected to reach between 37.4 and 49.2 million people by 2066.
The current average annual growth rate (1.7%) is projected to decline to between 0.9% and 1.4%.
The median age (37.2 years) is projected to increase to between 39.5 and 43.0 years.

These projections are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

Users should assess the available assumptions and choose the combination that best suits their needs.

Assumptions

Introduction

The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses the cohort-component method for producing population projections. In this method, assumptions made about future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are applied to a base population (applied by sex and single year of age) to obtain a projected population for the following year. The assumptions are then applied to this new (projected) population to obtain a projected population for the next year. This process is repeated until the end of the projection period is reached.

Span of projections

From a base of 30 June 2017, the projections span the period 30 June 2018 to 30 June 2066 for Australia, states, territories, capital cities and rest of state. Estimated resident population for 30 June 2017 for all above mentioned geographies have also been included in the data.

Base population

The base population is the preliminary estimated resident population at 30 June 2017, which takes into account the 2016 Census of Population and Housing.

Summary

Assumptions have been formulated on the basis of demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and overseas, in conjunction with consultation with experts at the national and state/territory level. They do not specifically attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes.

As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.

Image

Description

Summary of assumptions The diagram illustrates how using the current long-term trends in fertility, mortality and migration, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. This presents a range of possible future outcomes for Australia's population.

The table below shows how recent demographic trends (an average of the last three years) relate to the proposed assumptions. The projections will show a smooth transition from the most recently observed data to the long-range assumption. This 'phase-in' period is different for each component assumption and so the table also shows the year that each assumption will be phased in by.

Summary of assumptions

	Recent observed average	Low assumption	Medium assumption	High Assumption	Phased in by
Total fertility rate(a)	1.80	1.65	1.80	1.95	2026-27
Male life expectancy at birth(a)	80.4	83.0	83.0	87.7	2065-66
Female life expectancy at birth(a)	84.6	86.0	86.0	89.2	2065-66
Net overseas migration(b)	217,600	175,000	225,000	275,000	2026-27
Net interstate migration	. .	small flows	medium flows	large flows	2026-27

. . not applicable
a. Recent observed average is for calendar years 2014-2016.
b. Recent observed average is for financial years 2015-2017.

Projection series

The above assumptions can be combined to create 54 sets of population projections. Three series have been selected from these to provide a range, although not the full range, of projections for analysis and discussion. These series are referred to as series high, medium and low.

For some states, the high to low series do not depict the highest or lowest population outcomes. Where applicable, other series have been included in commentary.

The inclusion of a zero net overseas migration assumption increases the total number of available projections to 72 series. These extra series (series 55 to 72) do not feature in the commentary and analysis but are included in the ABS.Stat datasets attached to this publication.

Future uncertainty, along with the subjective nature of assessing current trends, means that using a range of possible outcomes rather than a single projection series give a more realistic view of the possible future size, distribution and age structure of Australia's population.

Different series, constructed from varying combinations of assumptions, are appropriate for different time horizons (shorter or longer term), the geographic region(s) considered, and any volatility in the components. Historically, mortality and fertility have been consistent with slow-moving trends in the data. The projections reflect this. Observed levels of overseas and interstate migration have been far more volatile. This volatility can be expected to continue due to future government policies and decision making, and economic, social and other influences in Australia and overseas.

Fertility

Summary

Future trends in fertility are an important determinant of Australia's future population size, structure and growth. To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, assumptions of age-specific fertility rates and the sex ratio at birth are required for each year of the projection period.

Using data from the past 20 years, three long-term assumptions have been made regarding Australia's future total fertility rate (TFR): higher fertility (a TFR of 1.95 babies per woman), medium fertility (1.8) and lower fertility (1.65). Under all three assumptions, the trend towards older ages of mothers is assumed to continue to 2027, but at a slower rate than seen historically, and remain constant thereafter. For all years, the sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births.

Trends in the total fertility rate

In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', Australia's TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Since then fertility has declined, falling sharply during the early 1960s, before levelling out at around 2.9 babies per woman in the years 1966–1971. The TFR was last at replacement level (2.1) in 1975, and continued to fall thereafter. Fertility stabilised somewhat during the 1980s, before resuming a more gradual decline during the 1990s. The TFR reached a low of 1.7 babies per woman in 2001, increased again to 2.0, before declining to 1.8 in 2016.

Assumed total fertility rates

The three assumptions for Australia's future fertility levels are made with regard to recent trends in the TFR, especially those of the past 20 years.

The higher fertility scenario assumes that Australia's TFR will reach 1.95 babies per woman by 2027 and remain constant thereafter. This reflects levels of fertility recorded since 1977 of between 1.7 and 2.0 babies per woman, acknowledging the possibility that the TFR could increase more, especially in the short-term.

The medium scenario assumes a continuation of the current TFR, with the TFR to remain steady at 1.8 to 2027 and remaining constant thereafter.

Under the lower fertility assumption the TFR declines to 1.65 babies per woman by 2031 and remaining constant thereafter. Fertility rates have reached low levels in many European countries, and higher-income Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

Total fertility rate(a)(b), observed and assumed
	Observed	Assumption - Higher	Assumption - Medium	Assumption - Lower
1999	1.78
2000	1.78
2001	1.75
2002	1.76
2003	1.76
2004	1.76
2005	1.85
2006	1.90
2007	2.00
2008	2.00
2009	1.97
2010	1.94
2011	1.92
2012	1.95
2013	1.87
2014	1.86
2015	1.80
2016	1.79	1.79	1.79	1.79
2017		1.81	1.80	1.79
2018		1.82	1.80	1.77
2019		1.84	1.80	1.76
2020		1.85	1.80	1.75
2021		1.87	1.80	1.73
2022		1.88	1.80	1.72
2023		1.89	1.80	1.70
2024		1.91	1.80	1.69
2025		1.92	1.80	1.68
2026		1.94	1.80	1.66
2027		1.95	1.80	1.65

["","Observed","Assumption - Higher","Assumption - Medium","Assumption - Lower"]

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Babies per 1000 woman.
Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag.

State/territory and capital city/rest of state observed fertility

The table below shows the TFRs for all states and territories and Australia from 2007 to 2016. Some states have consistently been higher or lower than the national rate, while others have fluctuated over the past 20 years. In recent years, TFRs for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT have been lower than rates for Australia as a whole, while TFRs for the remaining states and territories, particularly Tasmania and the Northern Territory, have been higher.

Total fertility rates(a)

Year ending 31 December	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust.
2007	2.02	1.89	2.11	1.93	2.04	2.21	2.25	1.70	2.00
2008	2.02	1.87	2.11	1.94	2.02	2.24	2.19	1.72	2.00
2009	1.99	1.85	2.07	1.90	1.98	2.20	2.17	1.75	1.97
2010	1.98	1.82	2.04	1.88	1.93	2.08	2.11	1.76	1.94
2011	1.96	1.81	2.00	1.90	1.92	2.14	2.13	1.78	1.92
2012	1.98	1.86	2.02	1.90	1.94	2.04	2.13	1.78	1.95
2013	1.87	1.81	1.95	1.83	1.89	2.01	2.05	1.77	1.87
2014	1.85	1.79	1.93	1.86	1.90	1.94	2.01	1.76	1.86
2015	1.81	1.73	1.84	1.77	1.87	1.88	2.00	1.73	1.80
2016	1.80	1.71	1.84	1.75	1.90	1.93	1.96	1.73	1.79

a. Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag. This differs to the Total Fertility Rates published in Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0) and Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

The ratio of each state and territories' average TFR for the ten years 2007–2016 to that of Australia is calculated, then applied to assumed future Australian TFRs. These ratios remain constant throughout the projection period.

Assumed TFRs for the capital cities and state balances are derived by applying the average ratio (for 2007–2016) of the region to its respective state/territory to that state/territory's assumed TFR. Fertility rates for Australian capital cities are typically lower than rates for their respective states and territories, while rates for state balances are higher.

Total fertility rates and fertility ratios

	Total fertility rate(a)(b)			Assumed fertility ratios(c)
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	rate	rate	rate	%	%	%
New South Wales	1.85	2.10	1.93	96.1	109.1	101.0
Victoria	1.75	2.11	1.81	96.3	116.5	95.0
Queensland	1.90	2.09	1.99	95.3	105.2	104.2
South Australia	1.80	2.19	1.87	96.6	117.3	97.7
Western Australia	1.88	2.23	1.94	96.9	114.8	101.6
Tasmania	2.02	2.11	2.07	97.7	102.2	108.2
Northern Territory	2.00	2.17	2.10	95.1	103.3	109.9
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	1.75	. .	. .	91.6
Australia(d)	. .	. .	1.91	. .	. .	100.0

. . not applicable
a. Babies per woman.
b. Average of 2007–2016 TFRs.
c. Assumed fertility ratios show the relationship of the average TFR for 2007–2016 for each state/territory to Australia; capital city to state/territory; and rest of state/territory to state/territory.
d. Includes Other Territories.

Assumed total fertility rates(a), from 2027

	Higher assumption			Medium assumption			Lower assumption
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate
New South Wales	1.89	2.15	1.97	1.75	1.98	1.82	1.60	1.82	1.67
Victoria	1.78	2.16	1.85	1.65	1.99	1.71	1.51	1.83	1.57
Queensland	1.94	2.14	2.03	1.79	1.97	1.88	1.64	1.81	1.72
South Australia	1.84	2.24	1.91	1.70	2.06	1.76	1.56	1.89	1.61
Western Australia	1.92	2.28	1.98	1.77	2.10	1.83	1.63	1.93	1.68
Tasmania	2.06	2.16	2.11	1.90	1.99	1.95	1.75	1.83	1.79
Northern Territory	2.04	2.21	2.14	1.88	2.04	1.98	1.73	1.87	1.81
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	1.79	. .	. .	1.65	. .	. .	1.51
Australia(b)	. .	. .	1.95	. .	. .	1.80	. .	. .	1.65

. . not applicable
a. Babies per woman.
b. Includes Other Territories.

Age-specific fertility rates

Population projections require assumptions about future age-specific fertility rates, which are derived from assumed TFRs and age distributions of fertility. These rates are applied to the projected female population in each year of the projection period in order to determine future numbers of births, and therefore the size of future projected populations.

Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst increasing among women aged 30 years and over, representing a gradual shift in fertility towards older ages.

The projected age distribution of mothers is based on half the average rate of change in the age-specific fertility rates during the period 2012–2016. The historical rate of change is assumed to slow down due to limits on child-bearing ages. These trends are assumed to continue under all three fertility scenarios until 2027, after which the age pattern of fertility remains constant.

Linear interpolation is used to obtain TFRs for each year 2017 to 2026 for all three scenarios, using the known TFR for 2016 and assumed TFR for 2027. To create assumed age-specific fertility rates, the assumed distribution of age of mothers is then applied to the assumed TFR for the corresponding projection year.

Age-specific fertility rates(a), observed and assumed
Age (years)	2006	2016	2027 Higher	2027 Medium	2027 Lower
15	2.06	1.33	0.82	0.75	0.69
16	6.53	3.22	2.36	2.18	2.00
17	14.00	6.97	4.64	4.28	3.93
18	22.78	12.05	8.95	8.26	7.57
19	34.58	21.25	14.77	13.63	12.49
20	39.78	28.15	21.98	20.29	18.60
21	45.83	34.50	29.71	27.43	25.14
22	52.98	42.19	37.86	34.95	32.04
23	61.10	49.24	46.61	43.02	39.44
24	69.94	57.72	55.46	51.19	46.93
25	82.14	66.33	66.12	61.04	55.95
26	94.30	78.97	78.82	72.75	66.69
27	106.44	92.51	94.19	86.95	79.70
28	118.67	105.77	110.49	101.99	93.49
29	128.55	118.19	125.35	115.70	106.06
30	131.72	125.00	138.75	128.08	117.40
31	134.64	133.43	146.26	135.01	123.76
32	130.65	129.68	148.19	136.79	125.39
33	122.21	124.08	142.83	131.84	120.86
34	110.38	115.56	132.62	122.42	112.22
35	95.88	101.49	118.98	109.82	100.67
36	80.18	88.11	102.25	94.39	86.52
37	64.03	72.25	84.76	78.24	71.72
38	49.41	56.35	68.19	62.95	57.70
39	36.83	44.46	52.46	48.42	44.39
40	25.21	30.97	39.43	36.40	33.36
41	16.21	22.23	27.44	25.33	23.22
42	10.26	13.71	18.42	17.00	15.59
43	5.39	7.98	11.32	10.45	9.58
44	2.73	4.41	6.77	6.25	5.73
45	1.30	2.44	4.16	3.84	3.52
46	0.79	1.48	2.71	2.50	2.30
47	0.36	0.88	1.88	1.74	1.59
48	0.25	0.47	1.88	1.74	1.59
49	0.13	0.80	2.59	2.39	2.19

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Babies per 1,000 woman.

Sex ratio at birth

Projections require an assumed sex ratio at birth (the ratio of male to female births), so that total projected births can be split into male and female births.

Historically, the sex ratio fluctuates between 105 to 106 male births per 100 female births. A constant ratio of 105.5 male births per 100 female births has been used for the duration of the projection period.

Mortality

Summary

For the population projections in this issue, two assumptions on future life expectancy at birth have been made. Only two assumptions have been made because life expectancy has consistently shown an improving trend since Australian records began.

The higher life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will continue to improve at the average rate observed in 2012–2016. The medium life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will also improve, but at a declining rate.

Life tables for 2015–2017 were not created in time to be included in the mortality assumption process.

Trends in life expectancy

Australian life expectancy at birth has improved steadily for both men and women. Since the early 1920s, life expectancy at birth for both males and females has increased by about 21 years. Since the 1980s, faster increases for males has narrowed the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 7 to 4 years. Recent years has seen the improvement in life expectancy declining for both males and females, with both males and females recording an improvement of 0.06 years in 2014–2016.

Life expectancy at birth
	Males (years)	Females (years)
1982	71.25	78.26
1983	72.13	78.77
1984	72.46	78.97
1985	72.40	78.82
1986	72.88	79.20
1987	73.06	79.54
1988	73.10	79.53
1989	73.32	79.62
1990	73.87	80.08
1991	74.40	80.41
1992	74.46	80.42
1993	74.98	80.87
1994	75.04	80.90
1995	74.95	80.84
1996	75.22	81.05
1997	75.60	81.30
1998	75.86	81.52
1999	76.22	81.78
2000	76.56	82.04
2001	77.03	82.41
2002	77.40	82.59
2003	77.76	82.84
2004	78.08	83.03
2005	78.47	83.34
2006	78.71	83.48
2007	79.02	83.69
2008	79.16	83.73
2009	79.34	83.89
2010	79.51	84.03
2011	79.75	84.21
2012	79.87	84.25
2013	80.10	84.30
2014	80.30	84.40
2015	80.39	84.51
2016	80.45	84.56
2017	80.48	84.63

["","Males","Females"]

[["1982","1983","1984","1985","1986","1987","1988","1989","1990","1991","1992","1993","1994","1995","1996","1997","1998","1999","2000","2001","2002","2003","2004","2005","2006","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017"],[[71.248800000000003],[72.134200000000007],[72.4619],[72.399799999999999],[72.876199999999997],[73.058199999999999],[73.100800000000007],[73.319100000000006],[73.874300000000005],[74.400499999999994],[74.464299999999994],[74.982699999999994],[75.042199999999994],[74.950000000000003],[75.219999999999999],[75.599999999999994],[75.859999999999999],[76.222399999999993],[76.557500000000005],[77.025899999999993],[77.396000000000001],[77.759100000000004],[78.079999999999998],[78.467299999999994],[78.709100000000007],[79.022000000000006],[79.164599999999993],[79.337500000000006],[79.507300000000001],[79.747399999999999],[79.874600000000001],[80.099999999999994],[80.299999999999997],[80.386799999999994],[80.448400000000007],[80.478399999999993]],[[78.256299999999996],[78.773399999999995],[78.968900000000005],[78.823300000000003],[79.196600000000004],[79.541600000000003],[79.525499999999994],[79.615499999999997],[80.077699999999993],[80.409700000000001],[80.417699999999996],[80.874499999999998],[80.904300000000006],[80.840000000000003],[81.049999999999997],[81.299999999999997],[81.519999999999996],[81.775000000000006],[82.039400000000001],[82.413499999999999],[82.591399999999993],[82.840500000000006],[83.026700000000005],[83.341999999999999],[83.482900000000001],[83.686800000000005],[83.7273],[83.886799999999994],[84.030900000000003],[84.208100000000002],[84.253799999999998],[84.299999999999997],[84.400000000000006],[84.506],[84.562399999999997],[84.626999999999995]]]

[]

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Assumed life expectancy at birth

The higher life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will continuously increase at the average growth of 2012–2016. The yearly increase of life expectancy of birth for the higher assumption is about 0.14 for males and 0.09 for females. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth reaches 87.68 years in 2066 and female life expectancy at birth reaches 89.16 years.

The medium life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will increase at a slightly lower rate than the higher assumption for the first year, and then gradually slow. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth would reach 83.00 years and female life expectancy at birth would reach 86.00 years in 2066.

Assumed life expectancy at birth

	Males	Females	Difference
	years	years	years
Declining improvement in life expectancy (Medium assumption)
2020–21	81.11	84.92	3.81
2025–26	81.53	85.16	3.63
2030–31	81.78	85.30	3.52
2035–36	81.95	85.40	3.45
2065–66	83.00	86.00	3.00
Constant improvement in life expectancy (Higher assumption)
2020–21	81.23	84.98	3.75
2025–26	81.94	85.39	3.45
2030–31	82.66	85.80	3.14
2035–36	83.38	86.22	2.84
2065–66	87.68	89.16	1.48

Age-specific death rates

The inputs of the mortality component of population projections are 'survivorship ratios' obtained from assumed future life tables. Life tables for each year in the projection period (i.e. 2018–2066) are calculated in two steps: (1) life expectancy at birth for each projection year is determined; and (2) a life table is generated which gives the desired life expectancy at birth and allows for a shift in the age curve of mortality over time.

The shifting age curve of mortality over time should ideally represent current trends in age-sex differences continued into the future. To achieve this, rates of change indicative of recent trends for each age-sex group are incorporated in the production of the assumed life tables. Determining assumed rates of change is achieved by observing historical patterns in age-specific death rates.

Between 2006 and 2016, males aged 0–29, males aged 65–79 and females aged 0–9 had the largest relative declines in age-specific death rates. The groups with the least improvement in death rates were males aged 40–49, males aged over 95, females aged 35–49 and females aged over 90. In general, greater change over time has been observed for males compared to females.

These trends are reflected in the assumptions. The assumed rates of change of age-specific death rates over time continues to 2035–36, after which the age-specific death rates are proportionally adjusted to fit the assumed life expectancy at birth.

Assumed age-specific mortality rates

Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to decrease for all age groups for both males and females over the projection period. Very little change is assumed for ages over 90. For corresponding ages, mortality rates for females are always assumed to be lower than for males.

Age-specific mortality rates(a), males
Age (years)	2017	2041	2066
0	0.00341	0.00231	0.00212
1	0.00028	0.00020	0.00019
2	0.00016	0.00012	0.00011
3	0.00014	0.00011	0.00010
4	0.00012	0.00010	0.00009
5	0.00011	0.00009	0.00008
6	0.00010	0.00008	0.00007
7	0.00009	0.00007	0.00007
8	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
9	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
10	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
11	0.00009	0.00007	0.00007
12	0.00010	0.00008	0.00008
13	0.00012	0.00010	0.00009
14	0.00016	0.00013	0.00012
15	0.00022	0.00018	0.00017
16	0.00029	0.00024	0.00022
17	0.00037	0.00031	0.00028
18	0.00044	0.00036	0.00033
19	0.00051	0.00041	0.00038
20	0.00055	0.00044	0.00040
21	0.00057	0.00046	0.00042
22	0.00059	0.00047	0.00043
23	0.00061	0.00048	0.00044
24	0.00062	0.00049	0.00045
25	0.00063	0.00050	0.00046
26	0.00064	0.00051	0.00046
27	0.00066	0.00053	0.00048
28	0.00068	0.00055	0.00050
29	0.00071	0.00058	0.00053
30	0.00075	0.00062	0.00057
31	0.00080	0.00068	0.00062
32	0.00085	0.00073	0.00067
33	0.00092	0.00079	0.00073
34	0.00098	0.00086	0.00079
35	0.00104	0.00093	0.00085
36	0.00110	0.00099	0.00091
37	0.00116	0.00106	0.00097
38	0.00123	0.00113	0.00104
39	0.00131	0.00121	0.00111
40	0.00141	0.00131	0.00121
41	0.00153	0.00143	0.00131
42	0.00164	0.00154	0.00142
43	0.00176	0.00166	0.00153
44	0.00186	0.00177	0.00162
45	0.00198	0.00189	0.00173
46	0.00214	0.00205	0.00188
47	0.00232	0.00222	0.00204
48	0.00253	0.00241	0.00222
49	0.00275	0.00262	0.00240
50	0.00296	0.00281	0.00258
51	0.00321	0.00303	0.00278
52	0.00347	0.00326	0.00299
53	0.00376	0.00353	0.00324
54	0.00410	0.00384	0.00353
55	0.00445	0.00417	0.00383
56	0.00483	0.00451	0.00414
57	0.00524	0.00487	0.00447
58	0.00568	0.00524	0.00481
59	0.00616	0.00563	0.00516
60	0.00668	0.00602	0.00553
61	0.00722	0.00643	0.00590
62	0.00779	0.00686	0.00630
63	0.00843	0.00734	0.00674
64	0.00914	0.00788	0.00723
65	0.00992	0.00847	0.00777
66	0.01079	0.00914	0.00839
67	0.01181	0.00991	0.00910
68	0.01299	0.01082	0.00993
69	0.01431	0.01183	0.01085
70	0.01578	0.01295	0.01189
71	0.01743	0.01423	0.01307
72	0.01930	0.01572	0.01443
73	0.02144	0.01744	0.01601
74	0.02385	0.01943	0.01784
75	0.02655	0.02171	0.01993
76	0.02961	0.02431	0.02233
77	0.03308	0.02731	0.02509
78	0.03704	0.03078	0.02828
79	0.04165	0.03487	0.03204
80	0.04703	0.03970	0.03648
81	0.05318	0.04528	0.04162
82	0.06011	0.05163	0.04747
83	0.06792	0.05888	0.05415
84	0.07682	0.06724	0.06186
85	0.08688	0.07678	0.07067
86	0.09810	0.08728	0.08037
87	0.11031	0.09854	0.09078
88	0.12349	0.11047	0.10181
89	0.13765	0.12299	0.11341
90	0.15277	0.13599	0.12547
91	0.16906	0.15084	0.13925
92	0.18636	0.16762	0.15485
93	0.20423	0.18614	0.17209
94	0.22234	0.20622	0.19082
95	0.24025	0.22745	0.21065
96	0.25751	0.24694	0.22888
97	0.27414	0.26486	0.24568
98	0.28981	0.28105	0.26087
99	0.30454	0.29551	0.27446
100	0.34682	0.33596	0.31256

["Age (years)","2017","2041","2066"]

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[]

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Mortality rates are the q(x) values from the life table developed for these assumptions.
y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.

Age-specific mortality rates(a), females
Age (years)	2017	2041	2066
0	0.00319	0.00222	0.00211
1	0.00021	0.00017	0.00016
2	0.00013	0.00011	0.00010
3	0.00011	0.00009	0.00009
4	0.00010	0.00009	0.00008
5	0.00009	0.00008	0.00007
6	0.00008	0.00007	0.00007
7	0.00007	0.00006	0.00006
8	0.00007	0.00006	0.00006
9	0.00007	0.00006	0.00006
10	0.00007	0.00006	0.00006
11	0.00008	0.00007	0.00007
12	0.00009	0.00008	0.00007
13	0.00010	0.00009	0.00009
14	0.00013	0.00012	0.00011
15	0.00015	0.00014	0.00013
16	0.00018	0.00016	0.00015
17	0.00020	0.00018	0.00017
18	0.00021	0.00019	0.00018
19	0.00022	0.00019	0.00018
20	0.00023	0.00020	0.00019
21	0.00023	0.00020	0.00019
22	0.00024	0.00021	0.00019
23	0.00025	0.00021	0.00020
24	0.00026	0.00022	0.00021
25	0.00027	0.00023	0.00022
26	0.00028	0.00024	0.00023
27	0.00029	0.00025	0.00024
28	0.00031	0.00027	0.00026
29	0.00033	0.00029	0.00028
30	0.00036	0.00032	0.00031
31	0.00039	0.00036	0.00034
32	0.00043	0.00040	0.00038
33	0.00046	0.00043	0.00041
34	0.00050	0.00047	0.00045
35	0.00054	0.00051	0.00049
36	0.00058	0.00055	0.00053
37	0.00062	0.00060	0.00056
38	0.00067	0.00065	0.00061
39	0.00072	0.00070	0.00066
40	0.00078	0.00075	0.00071
41	0.00085	0.00082	0.00078
42	0.00093	0.00090	0.00085
43	0.00102	0.00099	0.00093
44	0.00111	0.00107	0.00102
45	0.00121	0.00117	0.00111
46	0.00131	0.00126	0.00120
47	0.00142	0.00137	0.00130
48	0.00152	0.00147	0.00139
49	0.00165	0.00159	0.00151
50	0.00179	0.00172	0.00163
51	0.00195	0.00187	0.00177
52	0.00213	0.00204	0.00193
53	0.00232	0.00221	0.00209
54	0.00251	0.00238	0.00225
55	0.00270	0.00256	0.00242
56	0.00291	0.00274	0.00260
57	0.00314	0.00294	0.00278
58	0.00338	0.00315	0.00299
59	0.00366	0.00339	0.00321
60	0.00395	0.00363	0.00344
61	0.00425	0.00388	0.00368
62	0.00458	0.00416	0.00394
63	0.00496	0.00447	0.00424
64	0.00539	0.00482	0.00457
65	0.00589	0.00523	0.00495
66	0.00649	0.00573	0.00543
67	0.00720	0.00633	0.00599
68	0.00797	0.00699	0.00662
69	0.00884	0.00776	0.00735
70	0.00981	0.00862	0.00817
71	0.01090	0.00960	0.00910
72	0.01214	0.01072	0.01015
73	0.01359	0.01201	0.01138
74	0.01526	0.01352	0.01280
75	0.01717	0.01523	0.01443
76	0.01931	0.01717	0.01626
77	0.02172	0.01936	0.01835
78	0.02449	0.02191	0.02077
79	0.02771	0.02491	0.02361
80	0.03154	0.02849	0.02700
81	0.03608	0.03275	0.03104
82	0.04145	0.03783	0.03586
83	0.04771	0.04377	0.04150
84	0.05492	0.05067	0.04805
85	0.06307	0.05852	0.05550
86	0.07224	0.06734	0.06388
87	0.08264	0.07731	0.07337
88	0.09444	0.08860	0.08410
89	0.10786	0.10138	0.09627
90	0.12288	0.11563	0.10985
91	0.13928	0.13158	0.12504
92	0.15689	0.14916	0.14182
93	0.17573	0.16851	0.16031
94	0.19576	0.18965	0.18051
95	0.21684	0.21243	0.20232
96	0.23868	0.23511	0.22406
97	0.26088	0.25574	0.23484
98	0.28358	0.27719	0.24945
99	0.30223	0.28688	0.27377
100	0.32132	0.31754	0.30328

["Age (years)","2017","2041","2066"]

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Mortality rates are the q(x) values from the life table developed for these assumptions.
y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state mortality

Assumptions of life expectancy at birth by state/territory are derived from the Australian assumptions by applying a ten year average of the ratio of the state or territory life expectancy to the Australian life expectancy. A similar process is used to create the capital city/rest of state assumptions, by using the ratio of capital city/rest of state life expectancy to the state life expectancy for the most recent life table period 2014–2016. These ratios are calculated separately for males and females and remain constant through the projection period.

Mortality ratios(a)

	Life expectancy at birth 2014-2016		Male mortality ratios			Female mortality ratios
	Males	Females	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	Years	Years	%	%	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	80.42	84.58	101.5	98.5	100.0	101.1	99.1	100.1
Victoria	81.18	84.70	101.8	99.0	100.8	101.3	99.3	100.2
Queensland	80.11	84.47	100.3	99.2	99.6	100.2	99.7	99.9
South Australia	80.36	84.45	100.6	98.8	99.9	100.1	99.9	99.9
Western Australia	80.31	84.82	100.9	98.4	100.0	101.0	99.2	100.4
Tasmania	78.82	82.88	99.1	98.0	98.1	98.1	98.0	98.0
Northern Territory	75.56	78.66	96.1	90.1	93.4	98.2	89.7	93.5
Australian Capital Territory	81.26	85.22	. .	. .	101.2	. .	. .	100.7
Australia	80.45	84.56	. .	. .	100.0	. .	. .	100.0

. . not applicable
a. Mortality ratios based on the relationships of 2006–2016 life expectancies at birth between each state/territory and Australia, and 2014–2016 life expectancies at birth between each capital city and its state/territory, and between each rest of state/territory and its state/territory.

Net overseas migration

Summary

Three assumptions have been made about Australia's future levels of net overseas migration (NOM):

275,000 people per year (higher),
225,000 people per year (medium); and
175,000 people per year (lower).

In addition, a zero net overseas migration assumption has been included to facilitate analysis of the effect of overseas migration on Australia's future population.

ABS projections have used forecasts produced by the Department of Home Affairs up until 2021–22. Beyond 2021–22, the NOM assumption reflects established trends observed in the period 2008–2017. All NOM assumptions are held constant from 2026–27 onwards.

Historical data

Annual levels of NOM have fluctuated considerably in Australia over the past 20 years. For financial years, the level has been as low as 80,000 in 1997-98 to a high of 300,000 in 2008-09.

Net overseas migration(a), observed and assumed
	Observed	Assumed - Higher	Assumed - Medium	Assumed - Lower
1997	87,079
1998	79,162
1999	96,483
2000	107,275
2001	135,673
2002	110,556
2003	116,498
2004	99,966
2005	123,763
2006	146,753
2007	232,796
2008	277,338
2009	299,866
2010	196,058
2011	180,372
2012	231,947
2013	230,329
2014	187,778
2015	184,033
2016	206,233
2017	262,268	262,268	262,268	262,268
2018		269,000	259,000	249,000
2019		283,000	269,000	254,000
2020		286,000	267,000	248,000
2021		286,000	262,000	239,000
2022		286,000	258,000	230,000
2023		284,000	251,000	219,000
2024		282,000	245,000	208,000
2025		279,000	238,000	197,000
2026		277,000	232,000	186,000
2027		275,000	225,000	175,000

["","Observed","Assumed - Higher","Assumed - Medium","Assumed - Lower"]

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NOM estimates include a break in series at September 2006

New South Wales was the largest gainer of NOM from 2008 to 2017, with Victoria being the second largest gainer. NOM for Queensland and Western Australia declined after those states recorded strong NOM gains at the start of the period. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have seen fluctuations in their NOM between 2008 and 2017, with Tasmania and the Northern Territory recording strong gains in 2017.

Net overseas migration

Year ending 30 June	NSW ('000)	Vic. ('000)	Qld ('000)	SA ('000)	WA ('000)	Tas. ('000)	NT ('000)	ACT ('000)	Aust. ('000)
2008	87.4	73.6	53.9	15.3	41.2	1.8	1.6	2.5	277.3
2009	86.7	83.6	59.3	18.0	44.3	2.1	2.1	3.6	299.9
2010	57.2	53.7	35.8	14.5	28.9	1.7	1.2	3.1	196.1
2011	51.7	44.6	34.6	9.2	36.4	1.0	1.1	1.7	180.4
2012	57.2	56.2	46.5	12.4	50.8	1.5	3.3	4.0	231.9
2013	66.8	59.0	41.8	11.7	42.1	1.6	4.4	2.9	230.3
2014	67.0	56.9	27.2	11.6	18.8	1.8	1.8	2.7	187.8
2015	70.3	60.7	20.4	11.2	14.1	1.5	2.4	3.5	184.0
2016	80.0	72.2	25.0	11.3	11.6	1.8	1.0	3.3	206.2
2017	104.6	89.9	34.9	12.0	12.6	2.2	2.0	4.1	262.3

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state share of net overseas migration

Previously, overseas migration data was not available below the state/territory level which meant an indirect method was used to calculate the capital city/rest of state level. With the release of sub-state population component data in the ABS publication Regional Population Growth, Australia (cat. no. 3218.0), regional overseas migration estimates have been used to calculate the capital city/rest of state for overseas migration.

Each state and territory's proportion of NOM is based on an average of the last ten years of NOM data. The table below shows the assumed state/territory net overseas migration distribution.

Assumed net overseas migration, state/territory share

	NSW (%)	Vic. (%)	Qld (%)	SA (%)	WA (%)	Tas. (%)	NT (%)	ACT (%)
2018	39.06	33.75	13.73	4.57	5.92	0.78	0.69	1.50
2019	38.32	33.21	14.05	4.70	6.74	0.78	0.71	1.49
2020	37.58	32.67	14.37	4.82	7.56	0.78	0.74	1.48
2021	36.84	32.13	14.69	4.95	8.38	0.78	0.76	1.47
2022	36.10	31.60	15.00	5.07	9.20	0.79	0.78	1.46
2023	35.36	31.06	15.32	5.20	10.02	0.79	0.81	1.44
2024	34.62	30.52	15.64	5.32	10.84	0.79	0.83	1.43
2025	33.88	29.98	15.96	5.45	11.66	0.79	0.85	1.42
2026	33.14	29.44	16.28	5.57	12.48	0.80	0.88	1.41
2027-2066	32.40	28.90	16.60	5.70	13.30	0.80	0.90	1.40

Assumed net overseas migration, from 2027

	Higher assumption			Medium assumption			Lower assumption
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
New South Wales	76.74	12.37	89.10	62.34	10.56	72.90	47.95	8.76	56.70
Victoria	73.02	6.45	79.48	59.52	5.50	65.03	46.03	4.55	50.58
Queensland	27.41	18.24	45.65	22.24	15.12	37.35	17.06	12.00	29.05
South Australia	14.42	1.25	15.68	11.78	1.04	12.83	9.14	0.83	9.98
Western Australia	32.79	3.78	36.58	26.81	3.12	29.93	20.82	2.45	23.28
Tasmania	1.31	0.89	2.20	1.07	0.74	1.80	0.82	0.58	1.40
Northern Territory	1.89	0.59	2.48	1.55	0.48	2.03	1.20	0.37	1.58
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	3.85	. .	. .	3.15	. .	. .	2.45
Australia	231.44	43.56	275.00	188.45	36.55	225.00	145.46	29.54	175.00

. . not applicable

Assumed age structure of net overseas migration

The assumed age/sex structure of NOM for the states and territories is derived from the 2015–2017 NOM. Overseas migrant arrivals and departures by state/territory, age and sex are simultaneously constrained to the total assumed NOM level for Australia and to the assumed state/territory shares of NOM. The assumed age/sex structures are held constant throughout the projection period.

Net interstate migration

Summary

Interstate migration is a volatile and largely unpredictable component in population estimation or projection. The movement of people between the states and territories of Australia is influenced by many factors such as varying economic opportunities, overseas immigration and settlement patterns, lifestyle choices and marketing campaigns targeting interstate movers by state/territory governments. As the effect of these factors cannot be anticipated, past net interstate migration trends are used as the basis for assuming future levels.

Historical data

Net interstate migration (NIM) estimates since 1 July 2007 are shown below. These are calculated using Medicare change of address records, defence data and Census data on usual residence one year ago and five years ago.

Net interstate migration

Year ending 30 June	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas	NT	ACT
Year ending 30 June	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
2008	-20.8	-1.9	19.4	-4.2	5.0	0.7	1.4	0.3
2009	-18.7	1.5	14.7	-4.4	5.0	1.1	0.9	-0.3
2010	-9.5	3.3	6.2	-2.7	2.1	0.7	-0.7	0.4
2011	-13.5	3.5	6.8	-2.6	7.0	0.0	-2.5	1.4
2012	-18.1	2.4	11.8	-3.2	8.6	-1.9	-0.7	1.1
2013	-14.6	6.4	8.9	-4.8	5.7	-1.3	-0.5	0.2
2014	-6.8	9.7	6.3	-3.9	-1.7	-0.4	-2.4	-0.8
2015	-6.8	11.1	6.9	-4.6	-4.3	0.1	-2.3	-0.1
2016	-11.5	17.6	12.0	-7.2	-10.0	0.8	-2.0	0.4
2017	-15.2	18.2	17.8	-6.8	-13.9	1.5	-2.9	1.2

Victoria has returned to net interstate migration gains after earlier losses, overtaking Queensland in the last four years to be the largest recipient of net interstate migration. Western Australia has experienced a turn around from gains up until 2012–13 to increasingly larger losses. New South Wales and South Australia have continued to experience net interstate migration losses, not recording a net interstate migration gain in the last 38 and 26 years, respectively.

State/territory and capital city/rest of state assumptions

Levels of assumed net interstate migration were derived by analysing trends over the past ten years and constraining them such that they sum to zero. The assumptions reflect the view that each state/territory will trend towards their short term average.

Three assumptions have been made about future net interstate migration levels:

large interstate flows: relatively large net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, corresponding to relatively large losses for other states and territories. For example, this equates to large net gains in Queensland and Victoria and correspondingly large net losses in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia;
medium interstate flows: medium net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and medium losses for others; and
small interstate flows: relatively small net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and small losses for others.

The medium series assumptions are based on NIM averages for the states and territories in the period 2008–2017. The large and small assumptions are based on minimum and maximum share of state values of observed arrivals and departures over the last ten years, with adjustments made based on the trend data, as well as ensuring that each sum of the state/territory NIM is zero.

It should be noted that for some states the large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate migration losses, therefore the small interstate flows assumption will yield greater population growth in such cases.

All assumptions are separated into arrivals and departures for each state/territory and capital city/rest of state (Greater Capital City Statistical Area). Rates for arrivals and departures for the states and territories are generated from movement data from recent Censuses to obtain age/sex levels. Further, 2011 and 2016 Census data are used to generate age/sex arrival and departure levels for each capital city/rest of state. As a result, all age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations sum to the net internal migration assumptions.

Assumed net interstate migration, from 2027

	Large interstate flows assumption			Medium interstate flows assumption			Small interstate flows assumption
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
New South Wales	-23.9	2.9	-21.0	-20.2	6.7	-13.5	-17.0	10.0	-7.0
Victoria	8.4	9.6	18.0	1.7	5.3	7.0	–3.8	1.8	-2.0
Queensland	9.0	11.0	20.0	5.0	6.1	11.0	2.7	3.3	6.0
South Australia	-6.2	-0.8	-7.0	-4.5	0.0	-4.5	–3.2	0.7	-2.5
Western Australia	-5.6	-4.4	–10.0	0.9	–0.4	0.5	5.0	2.0	7.0
Tasmania	1.2	0.3	1.5	0.5	–0.5	0.0	-0.1	-1.4	-1.5
Northern Territory	-1.3	-1.7	–3.0	0.0	–1.0	-1.0	1.4	-0.4	1.0
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	1.5	. .	. .	0.5	. .	. .	-1.0

. . not applicable

National

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expentancy at birth(b)	Female life expenctancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)
High series	1.95	87.7	89.2	275,000
Medium series	1.80	83.0	86.0	225,000
Low series	1.65	83.0	86.0	175,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

Australia's population at 30 June 2017 of 24.6 million is projected to:

increase by an annual average of between 1.4% to 1.8% until June 2027
grow by an annual average of between 0.9% and 1.4% per year over the entire projection period
reach between 28.3 and 29.3 million people by 2027, and between 37.4 and 49.2 million people by 2066

An assumption of zero net overseas migration has been included to demonstrate the trajectory of Australia's future population relying entirely on natural increase.

Projected population, Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Zero net overseas migration
2017	24,600,777	24,600,777	24,600,777	24,600,777
2018	25,029,253	25,015,825	25,001,966	24,753,669
2019	25,478,136	25,444,104	25,408,521	24,903,161
2020	25,936,500	25,873,480	25,809,095	25,048,626
2021	26,402,046	26,301,274	26,200,811	25,190,067
2022	26,873,947	26,727,025	26,582,009	25,325,761
2023	27,349,900	27,147,199	26,949,969	25,454,972
2024	27,829,520	27,562,195	27,303,910	25,576,973
2025	28,311,405	27,970,435	27,643,086	25,691,129
2026	28,796,151	28,372,315	27,966,732	25,796,865
2027	29,283,507	28,765,734	28,273,607	25,893,232
2028	29,773,492	29,157,085	28,575,391	25,979,797
2029	30,264,147	29,545,877	28,872,946	26,056,317
2030	30,755,046	29,931,725	29,165,889	26,122,837
2031	31,245,852	30,314,335	29,453,938	26,179,604
2032	31,736,375	30,693,262	29,736,678	26,226,812
2033	32,226,409	31,068,410	30,014,050	26,265,047
2034	32,715,890	31,439,821	30,286,143	26,295,044
2035	33,204,848	31,807,641	30,553,159	26,317,619
2036	33,693,412	32,172,123	30,815,407	26,333,632
2037	34,182,203	32,533,632	31,073,310	26,343,974
2038	34,671,331	32,892,495	31,327,250	26,349,391
2039	35,160,908	33,248,991	31,577,558	26,350,475
2040	35,651,025	33,603,376	31,824,534	26,347,685
2041	36,141,847	33,955,939	32,068,498	26,341,405
2042	36,633,428	34,306,863	32,309,646	26,331,834
2043	37,125,971	34,656,377	32,548,204	26,319,147
2044	37,619,613	35,004,632	32,784,296	26,303,389
2045	38,114,559	35,351,791	33,018,032	26,284,580
2046	38,611,020	35,698,016	33,249,486	26,262,710
2047	39,109,288	36,043,472	33,478,711	26,237,737
2048	39,609,722	36,388,374	33,705,787	26,209,658
2049	40,112,650	36,732,899	33,930,739	26,178,414
2050	40,618,436	37,077,210	34,153,575	26,143,924
2051	41,127,485	37,421,528	34,374,365	26,106,159
2052	41,640,167	37,766,007	34,593,127	26,065,040
2053	42,156,755	38,110,846	34,809,946	26,020,534
2054	42,677,496	38,456,120	35,024,815	25,972,554
2055	43,202,553	38,801,884	35,237,742	25,921,023
2056	43,731,893	39,148,145	35,448,725	25,865,876
2057	44,265,558	39,494,845	35,657,744	25,807,056
2058	44,803,407	39,841,888	35,864,777	25,744,536
2059	45,345,286	40,189,171	36,069,828	25,678,344
2060	45,890,971	40,536,481	36,272,819	25,608,487
2061	46,440,182	40,883,602	36,473,692	25,535,032
2062	46,992,564	41,230,317	36,672,396	25,458,107
2063	47,547,713	41,576,362	36,868,831	25,377,848
2064	48,105,281	41,921,500	37,062,917	25,294,455
2065	48,664,837	42,265,557	37,254,622	25,208,210
2066	49,226,089	42,608,269	37,443,819	25,119,356

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Zero net overseas migration"]

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[]

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Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures).

Natural increase

There were 307,800 births and 160,200 deaths during 2016-17, resulting in a natural increase of 147,600 people.

The number of births is projected to increase to between 384,400 to 626,400 births per year by 2066.
The number of deaths is projected to reach between 340,200 to 379,200 by 2066.
Natural increase is projected to be between 14,200 to 286,300 people in 2066.

Projected natural increase, Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	147,602	147,602	147,602
2018	159,476	156,048	152,189
2019	165,883	159,279	152,555
2020	172,364	162,376	152,574
2021	179,546	165,794	152,716
2022	185,901	167,751	151,198
2023	191,953	169,174	148,960
2024	197,620	169,996	145,941
2025	202,885	170,240	142,176
2026	207,746	169,880	137,646
2027	212,356	168,419	131,875
2028	214,985	166,351	126,784
2029	215,655	163,792	122,555
2030	215,899	160,848	117,943
2031	215,806	157,610	113,049
2032	215,523	153,927	107,740
2033	215,034	150,148	102,372
2034	214,481	146,411	97,093
2035	213,958	142,820	92,016
2036	213,564	139,482	87,248
2037	213,791	136,509	82,903
2038	214,128	133,863	78,940
2039	214,577	131,496	75,308
2040	215,117	129,385	71,976
2041	215,822	127,563	68,964
2042	216,581	125,924	66,148
2043	217,543	124,514	63,558
2044	218,642	123,255	61,092
2045	219,946	122,159	58,736
2046	221,461	121,225	56,454
2047	223,268	120,456	54,225
2048	225,434	119,902	52,076
2049	227,928	119,525	49,952
2050	230,786	119,311	47,836
2051	234,049	119,318	45,790
2052	237,682	119,479	43,762
2053	241,588	119,839	41,819
2054	245,741	120,274	39,869
2055	250,057	120,764	37,927
2056	254,340	121,261	35,983
2057	258,665	121,700	34,019
2058	262,849	122,043	32,033
2059	266,879	122,283	30,051
2060	270,685	122,310	27,991
2061	274,211	122,121	25,873
2062	277,382	121,715	23,704
2063	280,149	121,045	21,435
2064	282,568	120,138	19,086
2065	284,556	119,057	16,705
2066	286,252	117,712	14,197

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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Net overseas migration

In all series, overseas migrant arrivals are assumed to exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 9.0 million to 13.5 million in total between 2027 and 2066.

Contribution of net overseas migration to the projected population, Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2018	269,000	259,000	249,000
2019	552,000	528,000	503,000
2020	838,000	795,000	751,000
2021	1,124,000	1,057,000	990,000
2022	1,410,000	1,315,000	1,220,000
2023	1,694,000	1,566,000	1,439,000
2024	1,976,000	1,811,000	1,647,000
2025	2,255,000	2,049,000	1,844,000
2026	2,532,000	2,281,000	2,030,000
2027	2,807,000	2,506,000	2,205,000
2028	3,082,000	2,731,000	2,380,000
2029	3,357,000	2,956,000	2,555,000
2030	3,632,000	3,181,000	2,730,000
2031	3,907,000	3,406,000	2,905,000
2032	4,182,000	3,631,000	3,080,000
2033	4,457,000	3,856,000	3,255,000
2034	4,732,000	4,081,000	3,430,000
2035	5,007,000	4,306,000	3,605,000
2036	5,282,000	4,531,000	3,780,000
2037	5,557,000	4,756,000	3,955,000
2038	5,832,000	4,981,000	4,130,000
2039	6,107,000	5,206,000	4,305,000
2040	6,382,000	5,431,000	4,480,000
2041	6,657,000	5,656,000	4,655,000
2042	6,932,000	5,881,000	4,830,000
2043	7,207,000	6,106,000	5,005,000
2044	7,482,000	6,331,000	5,180,000
2045	7,757,000	6,556,000	5,355,000
2046	8,032,000	6,781,000	5,530,000
2047	8,307,000	7,006,000	5,705,000
2048	8,582,000	7,231,000	5,880,000
2049	8,857,000	7,456,000	6,055,000
2050	9,132,000	7,681,000	6,230,000
2051	9,407,000	7,906,000	6,405,000
2052	9,682,000	8,131,000	6,580,000
2053	9,957,000	8,356,000	6,755,000
2054	10,232,000	8,581,000	6,930,000
2055	10,507,000	8,806,000	7,105,000
2056	10,782,000	9,031,000	7,280,000
2057	11,057,000	9,256,000	7,455,000
2058	11,332,000	9,481,000	7,630,000
2059	11,607,000	9,706,000	7,805,000
2060	11,882,000	9,931,000	7,980,000
2061	12,157,000	10,156,000	8,155,000
2062	12,432,000	10,381,000	8,330,000
2063	12,707,000	10,606,000	8,505,000
2064	12,982,000	10,831,000	8,680,000
2065	13,257,000	11,056,000	8,855,000
2066	13,532,000	11,281,000	9,030,000

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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Population by age

Of the changes projected to occur in Australia's population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates. In all series this trend is projected to continue.

Median age

The median age for Australia is projected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.0 years in 2066.

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0-14 years is projected to decline from 19% in 2017 to between 16% and 18% in 2066
working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 66% to between 61% and 62% in 2066
people aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23% in 2066
people aged 85 years and over will increase from 2% in 2017 to 3.6% and 4.4% in 2066

States and territories

The high and medium series both project population growth for all states and territories between 2017 and 2066. The low series projects growth for all states and territories except Tasmania, which would decline from 2028. New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state in all series, reaching over 9 million between 2025 and 2028. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population over the projection period, increasing by between 60% to 130%.

By 2027:

New South Wales is projected to reach between 8.9 and 9.3 million people
Victoria's population is projected to reach between 7.5 and 7.9 million people
Queensland is projected to reach between 5.7 and 5.9 million people
growth in Western Australia will be slower, reaching between 2.8 and 3.0 million
South Australia's population is projected to be between 1.8 and 1.9 million
Tasmania's population is projected to increase to between 544,900 and 573,300
the Northern Territory's population is projected to reach between 260,200 and 293,400
the population of Australian Capital Territory is projected to reach between 479,200 and 510,000 people, exceeding Tasmania's population by the year 2040

Projected population, 2066

	High series ('000)	Medium series ('000)	Low series ('000)
New South Wales	14,796	13,088	11,754
Victoria	14,525	12,030	10,091
Queensland	10,469	8,718	7,507
South Australia	2,437	2,214	2,040
Western Australia	4,926	4,760	4,493
Tasmania	744	581	453
Northern Territory	386	439	490
Australian Capital Territory	939	775	612
Australia(a)	49,226	42,608	37,444

a. Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.

Capital cities

Melbourne is projected to be the largest city in Australia by 2066 with a projected population between 8.6 million and 12.2 million, surpassing Sydney between 2031 and 2057.

At 30 June 2017, 67% of Australians lived in capital cities. This proportion is projected to increase to between 69% and 70% by 2027. All capital cities are projected to grow more than their respective rest of state or territory.

Sydney is projected to increase from 65% of the state's population in 2017 to between 67% and 68% in 2027.
Melbourne is projected to increase from 77% of Victoria in 2017 to 79% in 2027.
Brisbane is projected to increase from 49% of Queensland's population to 51% in 2027, becoming the majority part of Queensland's population.
Adelaide is projected to grow from 77% in 2017 to between between 78% and 79% in 2027.
Perth is projected to grow from 79% to between 80% and 81%.
Hobart is projected to increase its share of Tasmania's population, from 44% in 2017 to 46% in 2027.
Darwin is projected to increase its share of the territory’s population by more than any other capital city, increasing from 60% in 2017 to between 63% and 64% in 2027.

New South Wales

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.97	87.7	89.2	89,100	-21,000
Medium series	1.82	83.0	86.0	72,900	-13,500
Low series	1.67	83.0	86.0	56,700	-7,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

New South Wales' population of 7.9 million is projected to:

grow by between 0.7% and 1.4% per year, slightly lower than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
reach between 8.9 million and 9.4 million by 2027, and between 11.0 million and 15.6 million by 2066

Most of New South Wales growth is projected to occur in Greater Sydney. Sydney is projected to:

increase from 65% of the state’s population in 2017 to 67-68% in 2027
have between 6.0 million and 6.4 million people by 2027

The rest of New South Wales is projected to have between 2.9 million and 3.0 million people by 2027.

Projected population, New South Wales
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2017	7,867,052	7,867,052	7,867,052	7,867,052	7,867,052
2018	8,005,754	8,001,204	7,996,562	7,995,562	8,006,754
2019	8,149,423	8,138,816	8,127,752	8,123,736	8,153,442
2020	8,294,204	8,275,674	8,256,276	8,247,693	8,302,799
2021	8,439,138	8,410,280	8,380,644	8,366,413	8,453,395
2022	8,583,901	8,542,528	8,500,873	8,479,396	8,605,428
2023	8,727,635	8,671,694	8,616,153	8,585,804	8,758,079
2024	8,869,648	8,797,483	8,725,864	8,684,998	8,910,685
2025	9,009,904	8,919,389	8,830,329	8,777,276	9,063,248
2026	9,148,551	9,038,063	8,928,915	8,862,489	9,215,443
2027	9,285,419	9,152,348	9,021,826	8,940,332	9,367,623
2028	9,422,966	9,265,948	9,113,162	9,016,383	9,520,766
2029	9,560,495	9,378,639	9,203,155	9,090,883	9,674,160
2030	9,697,839	9,490,274	9,291,660	9,163,698	9,827,627
2031	9,834,882	9,600,745	9,378,568	9,234,731	9,981,038
2032	9,971,553	9,709,902	9,463,732	9,303,857	10,134,305
2033	10,107,789	9,817,706	9,547,126	9,371,062	10,287,348
2034	10,243,569	9,924,172	9,628,768	9,436,382	10,440,129
2035	10,378,915	10,029,352	9,708,727	9,499,897	10,592,654
2036	10,513,884	10,133,334	9,787,103	9,561,722	10,744,968
2037	10,648,698	10,236,245	9,864,036	9,622,009	10,897,274
2038	10,783,413	10,338,213	9,939,662	9,680,908	11,049,615
2039	10,918,088	10,439,335	10,014,090	9,738,536	11,202,039
2040	11,052,772	10,539,716	10,087,436	9,795,016	11,354,586
2041	11,187,546	10,639,457	10,159,807	9,850,466	11,507,327
2042	11,322,440	10,738,637	10,231,280	9,904,969	11,660,284
2043	11,457,541	10,837,343	10,301,937	9,958,613	11,813,539
2044	11,592,909	10,935,629	10,371,823	10,011,453	11,967,144
2045	11,728,610	11,033,558	10,440,980	10,063,534	12,121,166
2046	11,864,731	11,131,195	10,509,442	10,114,893	12,275,692
2047	12,001,381	11,228,604	10,577,235	10,165,563	12,430,831
2048	12,138,679	11,325,872	10,644,404	10,215,588	12,586,706
2049	12,276,740	11,423,064	10,710,966	10,264,984	12,743,440
2050	12,415,676	11,520,244	10,776,933	10,313,768	12,901,155
2051	12,555,631	11,617,490	10,842,339	10,361,973	13,060,004
2052	12,696,724	11,714,860	10,907,196	10,409,613	13,220,113
2053	12,839,042	11,812,422	10,971,536	10,456,719	13,381,579
2054	12,982,657	11,910,199	11,035,358	10,503,292	13,544,483
2055	13,127,611	12,008,209	11,098,662	10,549,336	13,708,872
2056	13,273,891	12,106,442	11,161,436	10,594,841	13,874,734
2057	13,421,490	12,204,867	11,223,661	10,639,793	14,042,066
2058	13,570,350	12,303,446	11,285,320	10,684,177	14,210,803
2059	13,720,413	12,402,111	11,346,379	10,727,965	14,380,888
2060	13,871,586	12,500,787	11,406,802	10,771,129	14,552,221
2061	14,023,776	12,599,377	11,466,545	10,813,631	14,724,700
2062	14,176,874	12,697,815	11,525,591	10,855,460	14,898,207
2063	14,330,734	12,795,986	11,583,875	10,896,557	15,072,583
2064	14,485,250	12,893,811	11,641,363	10,936,900	15,247,708
2065	14,640,272	12,991,223	11,698,033	10,976,475	15,423,426
2066	14,795,708	13,088,136	11,753,840	11,015,243	15,599,631

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

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[]

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Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows.

The largest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because New South Wales experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

In all series, births continue to exceed the number of deaths for New South Wales.
Some series project higher numbers of deaths than births outside of Greater Sydney.

The declining natural increase in the medium and low assumption series is due to the lower migration assumptions rather than the lower fertility rate assumption. This is because the fertility rate is applied to a smaller population, resulting in less births.

Projected natural increase, New South Wales
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	44,737	44,737	44,737
2018	49,131	47,987	46,751
2019	51,723	49,531	47,357
2020	54,302	51,020	47,826
2021	57,072	52,585	48,320
2022	59,517	53,610	48,199
2023	61,812	54,412	47,842
2024	63,875	54,962	47,194
2025	65,721	55,264	46,215
2026	67,349	55,289	44,946
2027	68,768	54,885	43,211
2028	69,447	54,200	41,636
2029	69,429	53,291	40,293
2030	69,244	52,235	38,805
2031	68,943	51,071	37,208
2032	68,571	49,757	35,464
2033	68,136	48,404	33,694
2034	67,680	47,066	31,942
2035	67,246	45,780	30,259
2036	66,869	44,582	28,676
2037	66,714	43,511	27,233
2038	66,615	42,568	25,926
2039	66,575	41,722	24,728
2040	66,584	40,981	23,646
2041	66,674	40,341	22,671
2042	66,794	39,780	21,773
2043	67,001	39,306	20,957
2044	67,268	38,886	20,186
2045	67,601	38,529	19,457
2046	68,021	38,237	18,762
2047	68,550	38,009	18,093
2048	69,198	37,868	17,469
2049	69,961	37,792	16,862
2050	70,836	37,780	16,267
2051	71,855	37,846	15,706
2052	72,993	37,970	15,157
2053	74,218	38,162	14,640
2054	75,515	38,377	14,122
2055	76,854	38,610	13,604
2056	78,180	38,833	13,074
2057	79,499	39,025	12,525
2058	80,760	39,179	11,959
2059	81,963	39,265	11,359
2060	83,073	39,276	10,723
2061	84,090	39,190	10,043
2062	84,998	39,038	9,346
2063	85,760	38,771	8,584
2064	86,416	38,425	7,788
2065	86,922	38,012	6,970
2066	87,336	37,513	6,107

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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Net overseas migration

In all series, net overseas migration is projected to decline the high recorded in 2017, returning net overseas migration to its long term average.
Greater Sydney is assumed to receive 86% of the state's net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

In all series, the projected number of interstate departures exceeds interstate arrivals in New South Wales, resulting in a net interstate migration loss.

Population by age

Median age

The median age is projected to increase:

for New South Wales from 37.5 years in 2017 to between 39.6 years and 43.1 years in 2066
for males by 2.3 to 5.6 years, to between 38.9 and 41.2 years
for females by 2.0 to 5.7 years, to between 40.4 and 44.1 years

The male population is projected to age faster than the female population under high life expectancy assumptions.

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 19% to between 16% and 18% in 2066
working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 61% and 62%
people aged 65 years and over will increase from 16% in 2017 to between 21% and 23%

Population proportion(a), New South Wales
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.25	1.29	1.18	1.04
1	1.30	1.28	1.17	1.04
2	1.27	1.27	1.17	1.04
3	1.27	1.26	1.17	1.04
4	1.29	1.26	1.17	1.04
5	1.29	1.25	1.17	1.04
6	1.29	1.25	1.16	1.05
7	1.29	1.24	1.16	1.05
8	1.27	1.23	1.15	1.05
9	1.27	1.22	1.15	1.05
10	1.26	1.21	1.15	1.05
11	1.21	1.20	1.14	1.05
12	1.17	1.19	1.13	1.05
13	1.15	1.17	1.13	1.05
14	1.14	1.16	1.12	1.05
15	1.14	1.16	1.12	1.05
16	1.16	1.15	1.12	1.05
17	1.18	1.15	1.12	1.06
18	1.21	1.15	1.13	1.07
19	1.26	1.17	1.14	1.08
20	1.29	1.19	1.16	1.10
21	1.31	1.20	1.17	1.11
22	1.38	1.22	1.20	1.14
23	1.43	1.25	1.23	1.17
24	1.46	1.28	1.26	1.19
25	1.48	1.30	1.28	1.21
26	1.51	1.31	1.29	1.23
27	1.53	1.32	1.30	1.24
28	1.51	1.33	1.31	1.25
29	1.50	1.34	1.32	1.26
30	1.48	1.35	1.33	1.27
31	1.49	1.35	1.34	1.28
32	1.48	1.35	1.34	1.29
33	1.48	1.36	1.35	1.30
34	1.48	1.36	1.35	1.30
35	1.44	1.36	1.35	1.31
36	1.40	1.35	1.35	1.31
37	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.31
38	1.30	1.34	1.35	1.31
39	1.28	1.33	1.34	1.31
40	1.27	1.32	1.34	1.32
41	1.28	1.31	1.33	1.32
42	1.28	1.29	1.32	1.32
43	1.32	1.27	1.31	1.32
44	1.34	1.25	1.30	1.31
45	1.38	1.24	1.29	1.31
46	1.38	1.22	1.27	1.30
47	1.28	1.20	1.25	1.29
48	1.26	1.17	1.24	1.28
49	1.23	1.14	1.20	1.25
50	1.20	1.16	1.23	1.28
51	1.21	1.14	1.21	1.26
52	1.21	1.13	1.20	1.25
53	1.27	1.13	1.20	1.25
54	1.29	1.12	1.19	1.24
55	1.28	1.11	1.18	1.23
56	1.27	1.11	1.17	1.23
57	1.23	1.09	1.15	1.21
58	1.19	1.08	1.15	1.20
59	1.19	1.07	1.13	1.19
60	1.15	1.04	1.10	1.16
61	1.13	1.02	1.08	1.13
62	1.09	1.00	1.06	1.12
63	1.06	0.99	1.05	1.11
64	1.05	0.99	1.05	1.11
65	1.01	0.99	1.05	1.12
66	1.00	0.98	1.05	1.12
67	0.98	0.97	1.04	1.12
68	0.94	0.96	1.03	1.11
69	0.96	0.95	1.02	1.10
70	0.97	0.93	1.00	1.09
71	0.83	0.93	1.00	1.09
72	0.78	0.91	0.97	1.07
73	0.74	0.88	0.94	1.03
74	0.66	0.86	0.92	1.01
75	0.64	0.84	0.90	0.99
76	0.60	0.82	0.87	0.97
77	0.57	0.78	0.83	0.92
78	0.53	0.76	0.79	0.88
79	0.50	0.72	0.76	0.84
80	0.47	0.70	0.73	0.81
81	0.44	0.67	0.69	0.77
82	0.40	0.64	0.65	0.73
83	0.36	0.61	0.62	0.69
84	0.34	0.57	0.56	0.63

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[1.28],[1.26],[1.25],[1.25],[1.24],[1.23],[1.23],[1.21],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1599999999999999],[1.1299999999999999],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1200000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.03],[1.01],[0.98999999999999999],[0.96999999999999997],[0.92000000000000004],[0.88],[0.83999999999999997],[0.81000000000000005],[0.77000000000000002],[0.72999999999999998],[0.68999999999999995],[0.63]]]

[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Victoria

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.85	88.4	89.5	79,480	-18,000
Medium series	1.71	83.7	86.2	65,030	7,000
Low series	1.57	83.7	86.2	50,580	-2,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

Victoria's population of 6.3 million is projected to:

increase by between 1.0% and 1.7% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
reach a population of between 10.1 million and 14.5 million by 2066

Most of Victoria's growth is projected to occur in Greater Melbourne. Melbourne is projected to:

increase from 77% of the state's population in 2017 to 79% in 2027
have between 5.9 million and 6.2 million by 2027

Projected growth rates for the rest of Victoria are smaller, with the population projected to have between 1.6 and 1.7 million by 2027.

Projected population, Victoria
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	6,321,648	6,321,648	6,321,648
2018	6,471,149	6,465,890	6,461,000
2019	6,627,735	6,614,083	6,600,416
2020	6,786,318	6,760,752	6,735,207
2021	6,946,030	6,904,453	6,864,395
2022	7,106,675	7,045,656	6,987,616
2023	7,267,466	7,183,220	7,103,993
2024	7,428,286	7,317,283	7,213,345
2025	7,588,660	7,447,358	7,315,497
2026	7,748,714	7,573,040	7,410,230
2027	7,908,342	7,694,223	7,497,244
2028	8,069,054	7,814,968	7,582,866
2029	8,230,290	7,935,141	7,667,303
2030	8,391,885	8,054,587	7,750,410
2031	8,553,689	8,173,184	7,832,081
2032	8,715,604	8,290,777	7,912,179
2033	8,877,544	8,407,316	7,990,673
2034	9,039,472	8,522,802	8,067,584
2035	9,201,379	8,637,270	8,142,970
2036	9,363,303	8,750,793	8,216,930
2037	9,525,408	8,863,485	8,289,603
2038	9,687,745	8,975,448	8,361,111
2039	9,850,350	9,086,783	8,431,580
2040	10,013,264	9,197,584	8,501,121
2041	10,176,547	9,307,952	8,569,853
2042	10,340,228	9,417,962	8,637,861
2043	10,504,366	9,527,694	8,705,233
2044	10,669,000	9,637,195	8,772,016
2045	10,834,179	9,746,507	8,838,242
2046	10,999,948	9,855,667	8,903,932
2047	11,166,374	9,964,707	8,969,094
2048	11,333,540	10,073,666	9,033,732
2049	11,501,522	10,182,576	9,097,838
2050	11,670,412	10,291,464	9,161,399
2051	11,840,316	10,400,369	9,224,408
2052	12,011,328	10,509,320	9,286,858
2053	12,183,519	10,618,356	9,348,747
2054	12,356,961	10,727,477	9,410,051
2055	12,531,694	10,836,680	9,470,748
2056	12,707,708	10,945,956	9,530,822
2057	12,885,005	11,055,266	9,590,244
2058	13,063,537	11,164,560	9,648,984
2059	13,243,239	11,273,801	9,707,035
2060	13,424,035	11,382,901	9,764,348
2061	13,605,819	11,491,788	9,820,896
2062	13,788,450	11,600,373	9,876,644
2063	13,971,797	11,708,580	9,931,566
2064	14,155,732	11,816,319	9,985,628
2065	14,340,112	11,923,536	10,038,816
2066	14,524,837	12,030,153	10,091,101

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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Natural increase

In all three series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Victoria.
All series project higher number of births than deaths in Melbourne, and higher number of deaths than births outside of Melbourne.

Projected natural increase, Victoria
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	38,998	38,998	38,998
2018	42,069	41,185	40,170
2019	44,602	42,858	41,063
2020	47,147	44,440	41,769
2021	49,820	46,020	42,397
2022	52,269	47,175	42,541
2023	54,581	48,103	42,356
2024	56,745	48,782	41,864
2025	58,722	49,215	41,085
2026	60,505	49,381	39,975
2027	62,153	49,158	38,439
2028	63,237	48,720	37,047
2029	63,761	48,148	35,862
2030	64,120	47,421	34,532
2031	64,329	46,572	33,096
2032	64,440	45,568	31,523
2033	64,465	44,514	29,919
2034	64,453	43,461	28,336
2035	64,432	42,443	26,811
2036	64,449	41,498	25,385
2037	64,630	40,667	24,098
2038	64,862	39,938	22,933
2039	65,130	39,310	21,894
2040	65,439	38,776	20,966
2041	65,808	38,343	20,157
2042	66,206	37,985	19,433
2043	66,663	37,707	18,797
2044	67,159	37,476	18,208
2045	67,704	37,287	17,651
2046	68,294	37,135	17,115
2047	68,951	37,015	16,587
2048	69,691	36,934	16,063
2049	70,507	36,885	15,531
2050	71,415	36,863	14,986
2051	72,429	36,880	14,434
2052	73,537	36,926	13,875
2053	74,716	37,011	13,314
2054	75,967	37,096	12,729
2055	77,258	37,178	12,122
2056	78,539	37,251	11,499
2057	79,822	37,285	10,847
2058	81,057	37,269	10,165
2059	82,227	37,216	9,476
2060	83,321	37,075	8,738
2061	84,309	36,862	7,973
2062	85,156	36,560	7,173
2063	85,872	36,182	6,347
2064	86,460	35,714	5,487
2065	86,905	35,192	4,613
2066	87,250	34,592	3,710

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Net overseas migration

In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 50,600 and 79,500 people added each year from 2027.
Melbourne is assumed to receive around 92% of the state's net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

In the high and medium series, interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain between 7,000 and 18,000 people per year from 2027.
The low series assumes a net interstate migration loss of 2,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Median age

The median age for Victoria is projected to increase:

from 36.8 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.1 years in 2066
for males by 2.9 to 6.2 years, to between 38.8 and 42.1 years
for females by 2.5 to 6.3 years, to between 40.2 and 44.0 years

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 18% to between 15% and 18% in 2066
working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 66% to 62%
people aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 20% and 23%

Population proportion(a), Victoria
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.24	1.25	1.14	1.00
1	1.32	1.24	1.13	1.00
2	1.29	1.24	1.13	1.00
3	1.28	1.23	1.14	1.00
4	1.30	1.23	1.14	1.01
5	1.27	1.23	1.14	1.01
6	1.26	1.22	1.14	1.02
7	1.26	1.21	1.13	1.02
8	1.24	1.20	1.13	1.02
9	1.23	1.19	1.13	1.02
10	1.22	1.18	1.12	1.03
11	1.18	1.17	1.12	1.03
12	1.13	1.16	1.11	1.03
13	1.12	1.15	1.11	1.03
14	1.11	1.15	1.11	1.03
15	1.10	1.14	1.11	1.04
16	1.13	1.14	1.11	1.04
17	1.16	1.14	1.12	1.05
18	1.22	1.16	1.14	1.08
19	1.30	1.19	1.17	1.11
20	1.37	1.22	1.20	1.14
21	1.41	1.24	1.22	1.16
22	1.49	1.26	1.24	1.18
23	1.55	1.29	1.27	1.21
24	1.55	1.32	1.30	1.23
25	1.55	1.33	1.31	1.24
26	1.58	1.35	1.32	1.25
27	1.61	1.35	1.33	1.26
28	1.58	1.36	1.34	1.27
29	1.59	1.37	1.35	1.28
30	1.57	1.38	1.35	1.28
31	1.58	1.38	1.36	1.29
32	1.56	1.38	1.36	1.30
33	1.54	1.39	1.37	1.30
34	1.52	1.39	1.37	1.31
35	1.48	1.39	1.37	1.32
36	1.44	1.38	1.37	1.32
37	1.38	1.38	1.37	1.32
38	1.33	1.37	1.37	1.32
39	1.30	1.36	1.36	1.32
40	1.28	1.35	1.36	1.33
41	1.29	1.33	1.35	1.33
42	1.30	1.32	1.34	1.33
43	1.33	1.30	1.33	1.33
44	1.34	1.28	1.32	1.33
45	1.39	1.26	1.31	1.32
46	1.41	1.24	1.29	1.31
47	1.33	1.22	1.28	1.30
48	1.31	1.20	1.26	1.29
49	1.27	1.16	1.22	1.26
50	1.21	1.19	1.25	1.30
51	1.22	1.16	1.23	1.27
52	1.21	1.15	1.21	1.26
53	1.24	1.15	1.21	1.26
54	1.24	1.13	1.19	1.24
55	1.23	1.12	1.18	1.22
56	1.22	1.11	1.17	1.22
57	1.18	1.10	1.15	1.20
58	1.16	1.09	1.14	1.19
59	1.13	1.07	1.13	1.18
60	1.10	1.05	1.10	1.15
61	1.09	1.02	1.07	1.11
62	1.04	1.00	1.06	1.11
63	1.01	0.99	1.04	1.10
64	1.00	0.98	1.04	1.09
65	0.97	0.98	1.04	1.11
66	0.96	0.97	1.04	1.11
67	0.93	0.96	1.03	1.11
68	0.90	0.95	1.02	1.10
69	0.91	0.94	1.01	1.10
70	0.93	0.92	1.00	1.09
71	0.78	0.92	0.99	1.09
72	0.73	0.89	0.97	1.07
73	0.69	0.86	0.93	1.03
74	0.62	0.83	0.90	1.00
75	0.62	0.82	0.88	0.99
76	0.57	0.80	0.86	0.97
77	0.54	0.76	0.82	0.92
78	0.51	0.74	0.79	0.89
79	0.48	0.70	0.75	0.85
80	0.45	0.68	0.72	0.82
81	0.42	0.65	0.68	0.78
82	0.38	0.62	0.64	0.73
83	0.36	0.58	0.60	0.69
84	0.33	0.54	0.55	0.63

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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00001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3300000000000001],[1.3200000000000001],[1.3100000000000001],[1.3],[1.29],[1.26],[1.3],[1.27],[1.26],[1.26],[1.24],[1.22],[1.22],[1.2],[1.1899999999999999],[1.1799999999999999],[1.1499999999999999],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1100000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.1000000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0900000000000001],[1.0700000000000001],[1.03],[1],[0.98999999999999999],[0.96999999999999997],[0.92000000000000004],[0.89000000000000001],[0.84999999999999998],[0.81999999999999995],[0.78000000000000003],[0.72999999999999998],[0.68999999999999995],[0.63]]]

[]

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The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Queensland

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	2.03	87.3	89.1	45,650	20,000
Medium series	1.88	82.7	85.9	37,350	11,000
Low series	1.72	82.7	85.9	29,050	6,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

Queensland's population of 4.9 million is projected to:

increase by between 0.8% and 1.5% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
reach a population of between 7.5 million and 10.5 million by 2066

More of the projected growth occurs in Brisbane than in the rest of the state. Brisbane is projected to:

increase from 49% of the state's population in 2017 to 51% in 2027
have between 2.9 million and 3.0 million by 2027

The rest of Queensland is projected to grow from 2.5 million to between 2.8 million and 2.9 million in 2027.

Projected population, Queensland
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	4,929,152	4,929,152	4,929,152
2018	5,016,470	5,013,437	5,010,811
2019	5,109,001	5,100,713	5,093,659
2020	5,204,072	5,188,076	5,174,863
2021	5,301,435	5,275,645	5,254,455
2022	5,401,455	5,363,276	5,332,085
2023	5,503,332	5,449,926	5,406,783
2024	5,607,533	5,536,108	5,478,824
2025	5,713,343	5,621,537	5,548,004
2026	5,821,362	5,705,729	5,613,620
2027	5,931,090	5,788,778	5,675,861
2028	6,041,504	5,871,437	5,737,035
2029	6,152,144	5,953,542	5,797,272
2030	6,262,932	6,035,035	5,856,520
2031	6,373,807	6,115,868	5,914,735
2032	6,484,745	6,195,969	5,971,857
2033	6,595,708	6,275,335	6,027,893
2034	6,706,671	6,353,975	6,082,867
2035	6,817,648	6,431,920	6,136,825
2036	6,928,650	6,509,223	6,189,831
2037	7,039,787	6,585,944	6,241,962
2038	7,151,066	6,662,145	6,293,289
2039	7,262,502	6,737,866	6,343,863
2040	7,374,096	6,813,147	6,393,732
2041	7,485,865	6,888,033	6,442,946
2042	7,597,813	6,962,545	6,491,526
2043	7,709,972	7,036,715	6,539,501
2044	7,822,367	7,110,565	6,586,885
2045	7,935,049	7,184,128	6,633,696
2046	8,048,070	7,257,440	6,679,951
2047	8,161,493	7,330,538	6,725,657
2048	8,275,415	7,403,472	6,770,833
2049	8,389,923	7,476,286	6,815,489
2050	8,505,102	7,549,025	6,859,636
2051	8,621,050	7,621,745	6,903,299
2052	8,737,854	7,694,479	6,946,487
2053	8,855,572	7,767,271	6,989,222
2054	8,974,254	7,840,145	7,031,516
2055	9,093,940	7,913,117	7,073,378
2056	9,214,613	7,986,191	7,114,817
2057	9,336,286	8,059,362	7,155,842
2058	9,458,922	8,132,620	7,196,457
2059	9,582,485	8,205,954	7,236,684
2060	9,706,937	8,279,328	7,276,515
2061	9,832,215	8,352,712	7,315,955
2062	9,958,252	8,426,062	7,355,000
2063	10,084,972	8,499,338	7,393,644
2064	10,212,309	8,572,506	7,431,881
2065	10,340,182	8,645,538	7,469,716
2066	10,468,533	8,718,389	7,507,130

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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Natural increase

In all series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Queensland.
All series project higher number of births than deaths in Brisbane.
Steady numbers of births, and increasing deaths may result in natural decrease in the rest of Queensland from 2042.

Projected natural increase, Queensland
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	30,607	30,607	30,607
2018	33,124	32,464	31,711
2019	34,269	32,982	31,661
2020	35,473	33,495	31,566
2021	36,850	34,081	31,483
2022	38,120	34,431	31,130
2023	39,368	34,697	30,647
2024	40,592	34,860	30,007
2025	41,777	34,940	29,236
2026	42,923	34,922	28,335
2027	44,078	34,699	27,191
2028	44,764	34,309	26,124
2029	44,990	33,755	25,187
2030	45,138	33,143	24,198
2031	45,225	32,483	23,165
2032	45,288	31,751	22,072
2033	45,313	31,016	20,986
2034	45,313	30,290	19,924
2035	45,327	29,595	18,908
2036	45,352	28,953	17,956
2037	45,487	28,371	17,081
2038	45,629	27,851	16,277
2039	45,786	27,371	15,524
2040	45,944	26,931	14,819
2041	46,119	26,536	14,164
2042	46,298	26,162	13,530
2043	46,509	25,820	12,925
2044	46,745	25,500	12,334
2045	47,032	25,213	11,761
2046	47,371	24,962	11,205
2047	47,773	24,748	10,656
2048	48,272	24,584	10,126
2049	48,858	24,464	9,606
2050	49,529	24,389	9,097
2051	50,298	24,370	8,613
2052	51,154	24,384	8,138
2053	52,068	24,442	7,685
2054	53,032	24,524	7,244
2055	54,036	24,622	6,812
2056	55,023	24,724	6,389
2057	56,023	24,821	5,975
2058	56,986	24,908	5,565
2059	57,913	24,984	5,177
2060	58,802	25,024	4,781
2061	59,628	25,034	4,390
2062	60,387	25,000	3,995
2063	61,070	24,926	3,594
2064	61,687	24,818	3,187
2065	62,223	24,682	2,785
2066	62,701	24,501	2,364

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Net overseas migration

In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 29,100 to 45,700 people added each year from 2027.
Brisbane is assumed to receive around 60% of the state's net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

In all series, interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain between 6,000 and 20,000 people per year from 2027.
The proportion of Queensland's net interstate migration gain received by Brisbane is projected to decrease from 68% in 2017 to 45% in 2066.

Population by age

Median age

The median age for Queensland is projected to increase:

from 37.1 years in 2017, to between 39.1 and 43.0 years in 2066
for males by 1.7 to 5.4 years, to between 38.1 and 41.8 years
for females by 2.2 to 6.3 years, to between 40.1 to 44.2 years

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 20% to between 16% and 19% in 2066
working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 60% and 61%
people aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23%

Population proportion(a), Queensland
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.24	1.30	1.19	1.04
1	1.28	1.30	1.19	1.05
2	1.29	1.30	1.19	1.05
3	1.30	1.30	1.19	1.06
4	1.33	1.30	1.20	1.06
5	1.33	1.29	1.20	1.07
6	1.34	1.29	1.20	1.08
7	1.37	1.29	1.20	1.08
8	1.36	1.28	1.20	1.09
9	1.37	1.28	1.20	1.10
10	1.35	1.27	1.20	1.10
11	1.32	1.26	1.20	1.10
12	1.27	1.25	1.20	1.11
13	1.25	1.25	1.20	1.11
14	1.22	1.24	1.20	1.12
15	1.24	1.23	1.20	1.12
16	1.27	1.23	1.20	1.13
17	1.26	1.22	1.19	1.13
18	1.25	1.22	1.20	1.13
19	1.28	1.24	1.21	1.15
20	1.31	1.25	1.23	1.17
21	1.36	1.26	1.24	1.18
22	1.41	1.27	1.25	1.19
23	1.44	1.29	1.26	1.20
24	1.45	1.30	1.27	1.21
25	1.45	1.30	1.28	1.21
26	1.46	1.30	1.28	1.21
27	1.47	1.30	1.28	1.22
28	1.42	1.30	1.28	1.22
29	1.41	1.30	1.28	1.22
30	1.40	1.30	1.28	1.22
31	1.42	1.30	1.28	1.22
32	1.41	1.29	1.28	1.22
33	1.40	1.29	1.28	1.22
34	1.42	1.29	1.28	1.23
35	1.36	1.29	1.28	1.23
36	1.34	1.29	1.28	1.23
37	1.30	1.29	1.28	1.24
38	1.26	1.29	1.29	1.24
39	1.26	1.28	1.29	1.25
40	1.27	1.28	1.29	1.26
41	1.29	1.27	1.28	1.27
42	1.30	1.25	1.28	1.27
43	1.36	1.24	1.27	1.28
44	1.39	1.23	1.27	1.28
45	1.43	1.21	1.26	1.28
46	1.45	1.20	1.25	1.27
47	1.36	1.18	1.24	1.27
48	1.32	1.16	1.22	1.26
49	1.28	1.12	1.19	1.24
50	1.26	1.15	1.22	1.27
51	1.24	1.13	1.20	1.25
52	1.24	1.13	1.19	1.24
53	1.29	1.13	1.20	1.25
54	1.29	1.12	1.18	1.24
55	1.29	1.11	1.18	1.23
56	1.27	1.11	1.17	1.23
57	1.22	1.10	1.16	1.21
58	1.19	1.09	1.15	1.21
59	1.17	1.08	1.14	1.19
60	1.13	1.05	1.11	1.16
61	1.11	1.02	1.08	1.13
62	1.07	1.01	1.06	1.12
63	1.04	0.99	1.05	1.11
64	1.04	0.98	1.04	1.11
65	1.02	0.99	1.05	1.12
66	1.00	0.98	1.04	1.11
67	0.98	0.96	1.03	1.10
68	0.96	0.95	1.01	1.10
69	0.95	0.93	1.00	1.09
70	0.97	0.92	0.99	1.08
71	0.82	0.92	0.99	1.08
72	0.79	0.89	0.96	1.06
73	0.73	0.86	0.93	1.03
74	0.64	0.84	0.90	1.00
75	0.63	0.82	0.89	0.98
76	0.57	0.80	0.86	0.96
77	0.53	0.77	0.82	0.91
78	0.49	0.74	0.78	0.88
79	0.45	0.71	0.75	0.84
80	0.42	0.69	0.73	0.81
81	0.38	0.66	0.69	0.77
82	0.34	0.63	0.65	0.73
83	0.31	0.60	0.62	0.69
84	0.29	0.56	0.56	0.63

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

South Australia

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.91	87.6	89.1	15,680	-7,000
Medium series	1.76	82.9	85.9	12,830	-4,500
Low series	1.61	82.9	85.9	9,980	-2,500

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

South Australia's population of 1.7 million people is projected to:

increase by between 0.1% and 0.9% per year, a slower rate than that projected for all other states other than Tasmania
reach a population of between 1.8 million and 2.7 million people by 2066

South Australia's growth is projected to be driven by growth in Adelaide. Adelaide is projected to increase from:

77% of the state's population in 2017 to 80% by 2042
1.3 million people in 2017 to between 1.4 million and 1.5 million by 2027

The rest of South Australia is projected to have very low growth, with an increase from 389,500 people in 2017 to between 389,900 and 406,900 people in 2027.

Projected population, South Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2017	1,723,671	1,723,671	1,723,671	1,723,671	1,723,671
2018	1,735,345	1,735,172	1,734,473	1,733,973	1,735,845
2019	1,748,100	1,747,363	1,746,054	1,744,546	1,749,609
2020	1,761,450	1,760,207	1,757,911	1,754,874	1,764,487
2021	1,775,348	1,773,127	1,769,947	1,764,858	1,780,440
2022	1,789,704	1,786,534	1,782,018	1,774,341	1,797,390
2023	1,804,430	1,799,773	1,794,003	1,783,195	1,815,260
2024	1,819,475	1,813,334	1,805,324	1,791,336	1,833,508
2025	1,834,783	1,826,655	1,816,441	1,798,726	1,852,579
2026	1,850,366	1,840,228	1,827,285	1,805,289	1,872,494
2027	1,866,249	1,853,452	1,837,791	1,810,958	1,893,285
2028	1,882,081	1,866,400	1,847,902	1,816,169	1,914,114
2029	1,897,766	1,879,057	1,857,672	1,820,976	1,934,878
2030	1,913,286	1,891,406	1,867,079	1,825,362	1,955,550
2031	1,928,631	1,903,436	1,876,112	1,829,320	1,976,117
2032	1,943,797	1,915,120	1,884,742	1,832,828	1,996,571
2033	1,958,777	1,926,457	1,892,966	1,835,887	2,016,899
2034	1,973,577	1,937,456	1,900,796	1,838,513	2,037,103
2035	1,988,199	1,948,130	1,908,245	1,840,724	2,057,185
2036	2,002,659	1,958,497	1,915,331	1,842,542	2,077,150
2037	2,017,004	1,968,586	1,922,082	1,843,999	2,097,044
2038	2,031,239	1,978,418	1,928,525	1,845,122	2,116,870
2039	2,045,371	1,988,013	1,934,678	1,845,933	2,136,632
2040	2,059,408	1,997,386	1,940,562	1,846,455	2,156,332
2041	2,073,358	2,006,559	1,946,195	1,846,710	2,175,979
2042	2,087,228	2,015,546	1,951,594	1,846,717	2,195,575
2043	2,101,032	2,024,365	1,956,773	1,846,494	2,215,131
2044	2,114,780	2,033,032	1,961,748	1,846,055	2,234,658
2045	2,128,489	2,041,561	1,966,530	1,845,413	2,254,173
2046	2,142,174	2,049,968	1,971,130	1,844,582	2,273,685
2047	2,155,854	2,058,267	1,975,556	1,843,571	2,293,218
2048	2,169,551	2,066,479	1,979,821	1,842,396	2,312,795
2049	2,183,284	2,074,618	1,983,931	1,841,067	2,332,438
2050	2,197,079	2,082,701	1,987,899	1,839,591	2,352,172
2051	2,210,960	2,090,747	1,991,735	1,837,982	2,372,023
2052	2,224,947	2,098,771	1,995,447	1,836,251	2,392,017
2053	2,239,060	2,106,792	1,999,053	1,834,413	2,412,174
2054	2,253,316	2,114,822	2,002,562	1,832,479	2,432,513
2055	2,267,730	2,122,875	2,005,985	1,830,462	2,453,052
2056	2,282,306	2,130,961	2,009,332	1,828,372	2,473,791
2057	2,297,053	2,139,087	2,012,613	1,826,219	2,494,741
2058	2,311,972	2,147,257	2,015,836	1,824,014	2,515,904
2059	2,327,063	2,155,472	2,019,007	1,821,768	2,537,274
2060	2,342,324	2,163,729	2,022,130	1,819,483	2,558,849
2061	2,357,747	2,172,021	2,025,207	1,817,165	2,580,619
2062	2,373,322	2,180,340	2,028,239	1,814,816	2,602,571
2063	2,389,032	2,188,678	2,031,220	1,812,433	2,624,683
2064	2,404,862	2,197,021	2,034,147	1,810,015	2,646,940
2065	2,420,795	2,205,361	2,037,019	1,807,561	2,669,315
2066	2,436,819	2,213,681	2,039,823	1,805,062	2,691,796

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

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[]

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Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows.

The largest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because South Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

Under the:

high series, natural increase is projected for South Australia for the whole period
low and medium series, deaths will exceed births in South Australia from 2035 (low) and 2047 (medium)
medium series, natural increase is projected for Adelaide over the whole period, natural decrease is projected for the rest of South Australia from 2026

Projected natural increase, South Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	5,683	5,683	5,683
2018	6,338	6,122	5,880
2019	6,454	6,048	5,643
2020	6,565	5,975	5,403
2021	6,741	5,951	5,205
2022	6,856	5,826	4,910
2023	6,958	5,687	4,597
2024	7,041	5,526	4,254
2025	7,101	5,349	3,879
2026	7,154	5,151	3,484
2027	7,208	4,899	3,031
2028	7,157	4,623	2,636
2029	7,010	4,332	2,295
2030	6,845	4,024	1,932
2031	6,670	3,705	1,558
2032	6,491	3,359	1,155
2033	6,305	3,012	749
2034	6,125	2,674	355
2035	5,947	2,349	-26
2036	5,785	2,042	-389
2037	5,670	1,764	-724
2038	5,560	1,507	-1,032
2039	5,457	1,270	-1,322
2040	5,362	1,048	-1,591
2041	5,275	848	-1,842
2042	5,195	662	-2,076
2043	5,129	494	-2,296
2044	5,073	342	-2,500
2045	5,034	204	-2,693
2046	5,010	82	-2,875
2047	5,005	-26	-3,049
2048	5,022	-113	-3,210
2049	5,058	-186	-3,365
2050	5,120	-242	-3,507
2051	5,206	-279	-3,639
2052	5,312	-301	-3,763
2053	5,438	-304	-3,869
2054	5,581	-295	-3,966
2055	5,739	-272	-4,052
2056	5,901	-239	-4,128
2057	6,072	-199	-4,194
2058	6,244	-155	-4,252
2059	6,416	-110	-4,304
2060	6,586	-68	-4,352
2061	6,748	-33	-4,398
2062	6,900	-6	-4,443
2063	7,035	13	-4,494
2064	7,155	18	-4,548
2065	7,258	15	-4,603
2066	7,349	-5	-4,671

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[]

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Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration is assumed to increase to 15,700 people per year under the high series and decline to 10,000 people per year under the low series.
Adelaide is assumed to receive 92% of the state’s net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

In all series, interstate departures will exceed interstate arrivals in South Australia, resulting in a net interstate migration loss.
This loss is projected to be between 2,500 to 7,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of South Australia is projected to increase:

from 40.0 years in 2017 to between 41.6 and 45.2 years in 2066, remaining the second highest of all states, behind Tasmania
for males by 1.6 to 5.0 years to be between 40.5 and 43.9 years
for females by 1.6 to 5.3 years to be between 42.6 and 46.4 years

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0–14 is projected to decrease from 18% to between 15% and 17% in 2066
working age population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease from 64% to between 59% and 60%
people aged 65 and over will increase from 18% in 2017 to between 24% and 26%

Population proportion(a), South Australia
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.12	1.17	1.07	0.94
1	1.21	1.17	1.07	0.94
2	1.18	1.17	1.08	0.95
3	1.19	1.17	1.09	0.96
4	1.21	1.18	1.09	0.97
5	1.23	1.18	1.10	0.98
6	1.21	1.18	1.10	0.99
7	1.22	1.17	1.10	0.99
8	1.21	1.17	1.10	1.00
9	1.22	1.17	1.11	1.01
10	1.21	1.16	1.11	1.01
11	1.16	1.16	1.11	1.02
12	1.13	1.15	1.11	1.02
13	1.13	1.15	1.11	1.03
14	1.12	1.15	1.11	1.04
15	1.13	1.15	1.12	1.05
16	1.17	1.16	1.13	1.06
17	1.20	1.17	1.14	1.08
18	1.23	1.19	1.16	1.10
19	1.26	1.22	1.19	1.12
20	1.29	1.24	1.21	1.15
21	1.33	1.25	1.22	1.16
22	1.37	1.25	1.23	1.16
23	1.35	1.26	1.23	1.16
24	1.35	1.25	1.23	1.16
25	1.34	1.24	1.22	1.15
26	1.34	1.24	1.21	1.15
27	1.35	1.23	1.21	1.15
28	1.33	1.22	1.21	1.14
29	1.33	1.22	1.21	1.15
30	1.34	1.22	1.21	1.15
31	1.36	1.22	1.21	1.16
32	1.35	1.22	1.22	1.16
33	1.36	1.23	1.22	1.17
34	1.33	1.23	1.23	1.18
35	1.30	1.23	1.23	1.19
36	1.27	1.23	1.24	1.19
37	1.22	1.23	1.24	1.20
38	1.20	1.23	1.24	1.20
39	1.18	1.23	1.24	1.21
40	1.20	1.22	1.24	1.22
41	1.20	1.22	1.25	1.23
42	1.22	1.21	1.24	1.24
43	1.24	1.19	1.23	1.24
44	1.28	1.18	1.23	1.24
45	1.35	1.17	1.22	1.24
46	1.39	1.16	1.22	1.24
47	1.34	1.15	1.21	1.24
48	1.32	1.13	1.20	1.24
49	1.30	1.10	1.17	1.21
50	1.26	1.13	1.21	1.26
51	1.28	1.12	1.19	1.24
52	1.29	1.12	1.19	1.24
53	1.33	1.12	1.19	1.25
54	1.35	1.12	1.19	1.24
55	1.34	1.11	1.18	1.23
56	1.36	1.11	1.18	1.24
57	1.32	1.10	1.17	1.23
58	1.30	1.10	1.17	1.23
59	1.26	1.09	1.16	1.22
60	1.24	1.07	1.13	1.19
61	1.22	1.05	1.11	1.17
62	1.18	1.04	1.10	1.16
63	1.16	1.02	1.09	1.15
64	1.16	1.02	1.09	1.15
65	1.12	1.03	1.10	1.17
66	1.13	1.03	1.10	1.17
67	1.11	1.02	1.09	1.17
68	1.08	1.01	1.08	1.16
69	1.07	1.00	1.07	1.15
70	1.12	0.99	1.07	1.15
71	0.93	1.00	1.07	1.16
72	0.88	0.97	1.04	1.14
73	0.82	0.96	1.02	1.11
74	0.76	0.94	1.00	1.09
75	0.72	0.93	0.99	1.08
76	0.66	0.92	0.97	1.06
77	0.63	0.89	0.94	1.03
78	0.61	0.87	0.91	0.99
79	0.57	0.85	0.88	0.96
80	0.53	0.83	0.86	0.94
81	0.49	0.80	0.81	0.89
82	0.45	0.78	0.78	0.86
83	0.42	0.73	0.73	0.80
84	0.40	0.69	0.67	0.74

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[]

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The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Western Australia

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.98	87.7	89.4	36,580	-10,000
Medium series	1.83	83.0	86.3	29,930	500
Low series	1.68	83.0	86.3	23,280	7,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

Western Australia's population of 2.6 million is projected to:

increase by between 0.7% and 1.7% per year
reach a population of between 3.6 million and 5.9 million by 2066

More of the projected growth occurs in Perth than in the rest of the state. Perth is projected to increase from:

79% of the state's population in 2017 to between 80% and 81% in 2027
2.0 million people in 2017 to between 2.3 million and 2.4 million by 2027

The rest of Western Australia is projected to grow from 536,400 people in 2017 to between 588,200 and 538,100 in 2027.

Projected population, Western Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Highest population(b)
2017	2,575,452	2,575,452	2,575,452	2,575,452	2,575,452
2018	2,598,047	2,598,092	2,597,578	2,596,078	2,599,547
2019	2,624,858	2,625,298	2,624,065	2,619,534	2,629,388
2020	2,654,616	2,655,657	2,654,010	2,644,390	2,664,239
2021	2,687,224	2,688,994	2,686,670	2,670,364	2,703,547
2022	2,722,116	2,725,215	2,721,784	2,696,667	2,747,278
2023	2,759,616	2,763,493	2,759,023	2,723,439	2,795,297
2024	2,799,741	2,804,354	2,798,733	2,750,504	2,848,155
2025	2,842,411	2,847,624	2,840,284	2,777,705	2,905,310
2026	2,887,260	2,893,380	2,883,527	2,804,378	2,966,929
2027	2,934,844	2,941,404	2,928,270	2,830,805	3,033,103
2028	2,982,626	2,989,315	2,972,653	2,856,610	3,099,819
2029	3,030,532	3,037,168	3,016,854	2,881,972	3,166,986
2030	3,078,577	3,084,964	3,060,865	2,906,902	3,234,605
2031	3,126,768	3,132,704	3,104,683	2,931,411	3,302,669
2032	3,175,117	3,180,358	3,148,271	2,955,478	3,371,171
2033	3,223,618	3,227,923	3,191,625	2,979,119	3,440,088
2034	3,272,275	3,275,400	3,234,745	3,002,348	3,509,405
2035	3,321,081	3,322,786	3,277,633	3,025,182	3,579,094
2036	3,370,038	3,370,088	3,320,295	3,047,643	3,649,143
2037	3,419,176	3,417,315	3,362,748	3,069,759	3,719,566
2038	3,468,482	3,464,466	3,404,996	3,091,546	3,790,336
2039	3,517,941	3,511,544	3,447,042	3,113,022	3,861,424
2040	3,567,532	3,558,535	3,488,878	3,134,189	3,932,799
2041	3,617,252	3,605,441	3,530,509	3,155,060	4,004,445
2042	3,667,077	3,652,250	3,571,921	3,175,630	4,076,333
2043	3,717,010	3,698,961	3,613,115	3,195,910	4,148,457
2044	3,767,045	3,745,570	3,654,082	3,215,895	4,220,807
2045	3,817,189	3,792,079	3,694,820	3,235,592	4,293,386
2046	3,867,445	3,838,488	3,735,317	3,254,994	4,366,198
2047	3,917,830	3,884,802	3,775,565	3,274,098	4,439,260
2048	3,968,367	3,931,030	3,815,563	3,292,909	4,512,599
2049	4,019,073	3,977,183	3,855,301	3,311,420	4,586,238
2050	4,069,976	4,023,264	3,894,767	3,329,629	4,660,213
2051	4,121,096	4,069,288	3,933,962	3,347,538	4,734,555
2052	4,172,467	4,115,269	3,972,882	3,365,145	4,809,305
2053	4,224,112	4,161,227	4,011,534	3,382,464	4,884,493
2054	4,276,058	4,207,172	4,049,918	3,399,498	4,960,154
2055	4,328,328	4,253,113	4,088,040	3,416,258	5,036,311
2056	4,380,928	4,299,064	4,125,907	3,432,755	5,112,975
2057	4,433,879	4,345,037	4,163,531	3,449,004	5,190,167
2058	4,487,186	4,391,038	4,200,922	3,465,024	5,267,890
2059	4,540,860	4,437,077	4,238,096	3,480,833	5,346,150
2060	4,594,897	4,483,154	4,275,066	3,496,450	5,424,937
2061	4,649,294	4,529,265	4,311,839	3,511,887	5,504,245
2062	4,704,042	4,575,405	4,348,420	3,527,157	5,584,048
2063	4,759,125	4,621,563	4,384,814	3,542,271	5,664,324
2064	4,814,526	4,667,726	4,421,020	3,557,237	5,745,043
2065	4,870,225	4,713,888	4,457,039	3,572,062	5,826,170
2066	4,926,201	4,760,022	4,492,858	3,586,744	5,907,672

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Highest population(b)"]

[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[2575452],[2598047],[2624858],[2654616],[2687224],[2722116],[2759616],[2799741],[2842411],[2887260],[2934844],[2982626],[3030532],[3078577],[3126768],[3175117],[3223618],[3272275],[3321081],[3370038],[3419176],[3468482],[3517941],[3567532],[3617252],[3667077],[3717010],[3767045],[3817189],[3867445],[3917830],[3968367],[4019073],[4069976],[4121096],[4172467],[4224112],[4276058],[4328328],[4380928],[4433879],[4487186],[4540860],[4594897],[4649294],[4704042],[4759125],[4814526],[4870225],[4926201]],[[2575452],[2598092],[2625298],[2655657],[2688994],[2725215],[2763493],[2804354],[2847624],[2893380],[2941404],[2989315],[3037168],[3084964],[3132704],[3180358],[3227923],[3275400],[3322786],[3370088],[3417315],[3464466],[3511544],[3558535],[3605441],[3652250],[3698961],[3745570],[3792079],[3838488],[3884802],[3931030],[3977183],[4023264],[4069288],[4115269],[4161227],[4207172],[4253113],[4299064],[4345037],[4391038],[4437077],[4483154],[4529265],[4575405],[4621563],[4667726],[4713888],[4760022]],[[2575452],[2597578],[2624065],[2654010],[2686670],[2721784],[2759023],[2798733],[2840284],[2883527],[2928270],[2972653],[3016854],[3060865],[3104683],[3148271],[3191625],[3234745],[3277633],[3320295],[3362748],[3404996],[3447042],[3488878],[3530509],[3571921],[3613115],[3654082],[3694820],[3735317],[3775565],[3815563],[3855301],[3894767],[3933962],[3972882],[4011534],[4049918],[4088040],[4125907],[4163531],[4200922],[4238096],[4275066],[4311839],[4348420],[4384814],[4421020],[4457039],[4492858]],[[2575452],[2596078],[2619534],[2644390],[2670364],[2696667],[2723439],[2750504],[2777705],[2804378],[2830805],[2856610],[2881972],[2906902],[2931411],[2955478],[2979119],[3002348],[3025182],[3047643],[3069759],[3091546],[3113022],[3134189],[3155060],[3175630],[3195910],[3215895],[3235592],[3254994],[3274098],[3292909],[3311420],[3329629],[3347538],[3365145],[3382464],[3399498],[3416258],[3432755],[3449004],[3465024],[3480833],[3496450],[3511887],[3527157],[3542271],[3557237],[3572062],[3586744]],[[2575452],[2599547],[2629388],[2664239],[2703547],[2747278],[2795297],[2848155],[2905310],[2966929],[3033103],[3099819],[3166986],[3234605],[3302669],[3371171],[3440088],[3509405],[3579094],[3649143],[3719566],[3790336],[3861424],[3932799],[4004445],[4076333],[4148457],[4220807],[4293386],[4366198],[4439260],[4512599],[4586238],[4660213],[4734555],[4809305],[4884493],[4960154],[5036311],[5112975],[5190167],[5267890],[5346150],[5424937],[5504245],[5584048],[5664324],[5745043],[5826170],[5907672]]]

[]

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Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows.

The largest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because Western Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

In all series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Western Australia.
All series project higher number of births than deaths in Perth.
Under low assumptions, steady numbers of births and increasing deaths result in natural decrease in the rest of Western Australia from 2052.

Projected natural increase, Western Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	20,140	20,140	20,140
2018	20,860	20,497	20,075
2019	20,737	20,075	19,367
2020	20,636	19,674	18,696
2021	20,641	19,381	18,132
2022	20,580	18,985	17,454
2023	20,543	18,628	16,795
2024	20,553	18,300	16,161
2025	20,635	18,016	15,579
2026	20,780	17,802	15,030
2027	21,009	17,599	14,468
2028	21,207	17,486	14,108
2029	21,331	17,428	13,926
2030	21,470	17,371	13,736
2031	21,616	17,315	13,543
2032	21,774	17,229	13,313
2033	21,926	17,140	13,079
2034	22,082	17,052	12,845
2035	22,231	16,961	12,613
2036	22,382	16,877	12,387
2037	22,563	16,802	12,178
2038	22,731	16,726	11,973
2039	22,884	16,653	11,771
2040	23,016	16,566	11,561
2041	23,145	16,481	11,356
2042	23,250	16,384	11,137
2043	23,358	16,286	10,919
2044	23,460	16,184	10,692
2045	23,569	16,084	10,463
2046	23,681	15,984	10,222
2047	23,810	15,889	9,973
2048	23,962	15,803	9,723
2049	24,131	15,728	9,463
2050	24,328	15,656	9,191
2051	24,545	15,599	8,920
2052	24,796	15,556	8,645
2053	25,070	15,533	8,377
2054	25,371	15,520	8,109
2055	25,695	15,516	7,847
2056	26,025	15,526	7,592
2057	26,376	15,548	7,349
2058	26,732	15,576	7,116
2059	27,099	15,614	6,899
2060	27,462	15,652	6,695
2061	27,822	15,686	6,498
2062	28,173	15,715	6,306
2063	28,508	15,733	6,119
2064	28,826	15,738	5,931
2065	29,124	15,737	5,744
2066	29,401	15,709	5,544

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[20140],[20860],[20737],[20636],[20641],[20580],[20543],[20553],[20635],[20780],[21009],[21207],[21331],[21470],[21616],[21774],[21926],[22082],[22231],[22382],[22563],[22731],[22884],[23016],[23145],[23250],[23358],[23460],[23569],[23681],[23810],[23962],[24131],[24328],[24545],[24796],[25070],[25371],[25695],[26025],[26376],[26732],[27099],[27462],[27822],[28173],[28508],[28826],[29124],[29401]],[[20140],[20497],[20075],[19674],[19381],[18985],[18628],[18300],[18016],[17802],[17599],[17486],[17428],[17371],[17315],[17229],[17140],[17052],[16961],[16877],[16802],[16726],[16653],[16566],[16481],[16384],[16286],[16184],[16084],[15984],[15889],[15803],[15728],[15656],[15599],[15556],[15533],[15520],[15516],[15526],[15548],[15576],[15614],[15652],[15686],[15715],[15733],[15738],[15737],[15709]],[[20140],[20075],[19367],[18696],[18132],[17454],[16795],[16161],[15579],[15030],[14468],[14108],[13926],[13736],[13543],[13313],[13079],[12845],[12613],[12387],[12178],[11973],[11771],[11561],[11356],[11137],[10919],[10692],[10463],[10222],[9973],[9723],[9463],[9191],[8920],[8645],[8377],[8109],[7847],[7592],[7349],[7116],[6899],[6695],[6498],[6306],[6119],[5931],[5744],[5544]]]

[]

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Net overseas migration

In all series, net overseas migration for Western Australia is projected to increase from the low recorded in 2017 to its long term average.
Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 23,3000 to 36,600 people in 2066.
Perth is assumed to receive around 90% of the state's net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

Under high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 10,000 people from 2027.
Under medium and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to gain between 500 to 7,000 people from 2027.

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of Western Australia is projected to increase:

from 36.6 years in 2017 to be between 39.2 and 42.5 years in 2066
for males by 2.5 to 5.8 years to be between 38.5 and 41.8 years
for females by 2.7 to 6.1 years to be between 39.9 and 43.3 years

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 20% to between 16% and 19% in 2066
working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 67% to between 61% and 62%
people aged 65 years and over will increase from 14% in 2017 to between 20% and 22%

Population proportion(a), Western Australia
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.35	1.29	1.18	1.05
1	1.38	1.28	1.18	1.05
2	1.34	1.28	1.18	1.05
3	1.33	1.27	1.18	1.06
4	1.34	1.27	1.18	1.06
5	1.32	1.27	1.18	1.07
6	1.34	1.26	1.18	1.07
7	1.33	1.25	1.18	1.07
8	1.31	1.25	1.18	1.07
9	1.33	1.24	1.18	1.08
10	1.31	1.23	1.17	1.08
11	1.26	1.22	1.17	1.08
12	1.20	1.22	1.17	1.08
13	1.18	1.21	1.16	1.09
14	1.16	1.20	1.16	1.09
15	1.16	1.20	1.16	1.09
16	1.19	1.19	1.15	1.09
17	1.20	1.19	1.15	1.09
18	1.22	1.19	1.15	1.09
19	1.22	1.20	1.17	1.11
20	1.25	1.22	1.19	1.12
21	1.29	1.23	1.20	1.14
22	1.34	1.25	1.22	1.16
23	1.35	1.27	1.24	1.18
24	1.39	1.30	1.27	1.21
25	1.42	1.31	1.29	1.23
26	1.49	1.33	1.31	1.25
27	1.55	1.34	1.32	1.26
28	1.55	1.35	1.33	1.27
29	1.59	1.35	1.34	1.28
30	1.61	1.35	1.34	1.29
31	1.63	1.35	1.35	1.30
32	1.58	1.35	1.35	1.30
33	1.58	1.35	1.35	1.30
34	1.56	1.34	1.35	1.31
35	1.51	1.34	1.35	1.31
36	1.46	1.34	1.35	1.31
37	1.40	1.33	1.35	1.32
38	1.36	1.33	1.34	1.32
39	1.33	1.32	1.34	1.32
40	1.31	1.31	1.34	1.33
41	1.33	1.30	1.33	1.33
42	1.32	1.29	1.33	1.34
43	1.34	1.28	1.32	1.34
44	1.38	1.26	1.32	1.34
45	1.44	1.25	1.31	1.34
46	1.45	1.24	1.30	1.34
47	1.37	1.22	1.29	1.33
48	1.36	1.21	1.28	1.33
49	1.30	1.17	1.25	1.30
50	1.27	1.19	1.27	1.33
51	1.27	1.17	1.24	1.30
52	1.26	1.15	1.23	1.29
53	1.28	1.15	1.23	1.29
54	1.29	1.13	1.21	1.27
55	1.26	1.13	1.20	1.26
56	1.25	1.12	1.19	1.25
57	1.21	1.10	1.17	1.23
58	1.17	1.09	1.17	1.23
59	1.14	1.08	1.15	1.21
60	1.11	1.04	1.11	1.17
61	1.11	1.01	1.08	1.13
62	1.05	0.99	1.06	1.12
63	1.02	0.97	1.04	1.10
64	1.00	0.96	1.02	1.09
65	0.97	0.95	1.02	1.09
66	0.95	0.94	1.01	1.08
67	0.91	0.92	0.99	1.06
68	0.89	0.90	0.96	1.04
69	0.88	0.88	0.94	1.02
70	0.89	0.86	0.92	1.00
71	0.71	0.85	0.91	0.99
72	0.67	0.82	0.88	0.96
73	0.65	0.80	0.86	0.94
74	0.58	0.78	0.83	0.91
75	0.58	0.78	0.82	0.90
76	0.52	0.77	0.81	0.89
77	0.50	0.75	0.78	0.85
78	0.47	0.73	0.76	0.83
79	0.44	0.72	0.73	0.80
80	0.40	0.71	0.71	0.78
81	0.37	0.67	0.67	0.74
82	0.34	0.65	0.64	0.70
83	0.30	0.62	0.60	0.66
84	0.28	0.57	0.55	0.60

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[]

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The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Tasmania

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	2.11	86.0	88.5	2,200	1,500
Medium series	1.95	81.4	84.3	1,800	0
Low series	1.79	81.4	84.3	1,400	-1,500

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

Tasmania's population of 522,300 people is projected to:

increase to 744,500 and 580,500 respectively in 2066 under high and medium series
decline to 452,700 by 2066 under low assumptions

Hobart is projected to grow in each series from:

44% of the state's population in 2017 to 46% in 2027
229,100 people in 2017 to between 250,700 and 264,600 people in 2027

Population growth for the rest of Tasmania is smaller, with both medium and low assumptions projecting population decline.

Projected population, Tasmania
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	522,152	522,152	522,152
2018	527,074	526,930	526,782
2019	532,030	531,655	530,773
2020	537,061	535,855	534,147
2021	542,162	540,012	537,387
2022	547,331	543,618	539,973
2023	552,518	547,105	541,844
2024	557,714	550,472	543,483
2025	562,903	553,699	544,382
2026	568,110	556,311	545,041
2027	573,305	558,745	544,919
2028	578,460	561,041	544,602
2029	583,531	563,182	544,102
2030	588,508	565,162	543,416
2031	593,387	566,980	542,541
2032	598,163	568,630	541,475
2033	602,835	570,115	540,222
2034	607,407	571,438	538,791
2035	611,883	572,613	537,192
2036	616,267	573,645	535,435
2037	620,589	574,548	533,533
2038	624,852	575,334	531,499
2039	629,061	576,010	529,346
2040	633,223	576,588	527,082
2041	637,341	577,079	524,721
2042	641,421	577,487	522,270
2043	645,469	577,822	519,738
2044	649,490	578,095	517,133
2045	653,496	578,316	514,464
2046	657,495	578,491	511,738
2047	661,495	578,630	508,963
2048	665,506	578,742	506,147
2049	669,535	578,835	503,296
2050	673,592	578,914	500,413
2051	677,685	578,988	497,505
2052	681,822	579,061	494,574
2053	686,008	579,138	491,629
2054	690,245	579,223	488,669
2055	694,534	579,315	485,701
2056	698,874	579,415	482,724
2057	703,267	579,525	479,740
2058	707,711	579,643	476,753
2059	712,201	579,767	473,763
2060	716,732	579,896	470,769
2061	721,303	580,025	467,772
2062	725,908	580,150	464,770
2063	730,536	580,268	461,762
2064	735,180	580,374	458,747
2065	739,835	580,463	455,723
2066	744,492	580,529	452,687

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[522152],[527074],[532030],[537061],[542162],[547331],[552518],[557714],[562903],[568110],[573305],[578460],[583531],[588508],[593387],[598163],[602835],[607407],[611883],[616267],[620589],[624852],[629061],[633223],[637341],[641421],[645469],[649490],[653496],[657495],[661495],[665506],[669535],[673592],[677685],[681822],[686008],[690245],[694534],[698874],[703267],[707711],[712201],[716732],[721303],[725908],[730536],[735180],[739835],[744492]],[[522152],[526930],[531655],[535855],[540012],[543618],[547105],[550472],[553699],[556311],[558745],[561041],[563182],[565162],[566980],[568630],[570115],[571438],[572613],[573645],[574548],[575334],[576010],[576588],[577079],[577487],[577822],[578095],[578316],[578491],[578630],[578742],[578835],[578914],[578988],[579061],[579138],[579223],[579315],[579415],[579525],[579643],[579767],[579896],[580025],[580150],[580268],[580374],[580463],[580529]],[[522152],[526782],[530773],[534147],[537387],[539973],[541844],[543483],[544382],[545041],[544919],[544602],[544102],[543416],[542541],[541475],[540222],[538791],[537192],[535435],[533533],[531499],[529346],[527082],[524721],[522270],[519738],[517133],[514464],[511738],[508963],[506147],[503296],[500413],[497505],[494574],[491629],[488669],[485701],[482724],[479740],[476753],[473763],[470769],[467772],[464770],[461762],[458747],[455723],[452687]]]

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Natural increase

Under medium and low assumptions, the number of deaths will exceed births, leading to natural decrease for Tasmania.
Under high assumptions, Hobart experiences natural increase but medium and low projections assume natural decrease from 2048 and 2034 respectively.
In the rest of Tasmania, natural decrease is projected from between 2023 (low series) to 2032 (high series).

Projected natural increase, Tasmania
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	1,030	1,030	1,030
2018	1,197	1,131	1,061
2019	1,249	1,127	1,010
2020	1,300	1,117	940
2021	1,370	1,114	876
2022	1,410	1,068	769
2023	1,443	1,004	641
2024	1,468	931	496
2025	1,485	847	343
2026	1,491	756	171
2027	1,495	634	-22
2028	1,455	496	-217
2029	1,371	341	-400
2030	1,277	180	-586
2031	1,179	18	-775
2032	1,076	-150	-966
2033	972	-315	-1,153
2034	872	-477	-1,331
2035	776	-625	-1,499
2036	684	-768	-1,657
2037	622	-897	-1,802
2038	563	-1,014	-1,934
2039	509	-1,124	-2,053
2040	462	-1,222	-2,164
2041	418	-1,309	-2,261
2042	380	-1,392	-2,351
2043	348	-1,465	-2,432
2044	321	-1,527	-2,505
2045	306	-1,579	-2,569
2046	299	-1,625	-2,626
2047	300	-1,661	-2,675
2048	311	-1,688	-2,716
2049	329	-1,707	-2,751
2050	357	-1,721	-2,783
2051	393	-1,726	-2,808
2052	437	-1,727	-2,831
2053	486	-1,723	-2,845
2054	537	-1,715	-2,860
2055	589	-1,708	-2,868
2056	640	-1,700	-2,877
2057	693	-1,690	-2,884
2058	744	-1,682	-2,887
2059	790	-1,676	-2,890
2060	831	-1,671	-2,894
2061	871	-1,671	-2,897
2062	905	-1,675	-2,902
2063	928	-1,682	-2,908
2064	944	-1,694	-2,915
2065	955	-1,711	-2,924
2066	957	-1,734	-2,936

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066"],[[1030],[1197],[1249],[1300],[1370],[1410],[1443],[1468],[1485],[1491],[1495],[1455],[1371],[1277],[1179],[1076],[972],[872],[776],[684],[622],[563],[509],[462],[418],[380],[348],[321],[306],[299],[300],[311],[329],[357],[393],[437],[486],[537],[589],[640],[693],[744],[790],[831],[871],[905],[928],[944],[955],[957]],[[1030],[1131],[1127],[1117],[1114],[1068],[1004],[931],[847],[756],[634],[496],[341],[180],[18],[-150],[-315],[-477],[-625],[-768],[-897],[-1014],[-1124],[-1222],[-1309],[-1392],[-1465],[-1527],[-1579],[-1625],[-1661],[-1688],[-1707],[-1721],[-1726],[-1727],[-1723],[-1715],[-1708],[-1700],[-1690],[-1682],[-1676],[-1671],[-1671],[-1675],[-1682],[-1694],[-1711],[-1734]],[[1030],[1061],[1010],[940],[876],[769],[641],[496],[343],[171],[-22],[-217],[-400],[-586],[-775],[-966],[-1153],[-1331],[-1499],[-1657],[-1802],[-1934],[-2053],[-2164],[-2261],[-2351],[-2432],[-2505],[-2569],[-2626],[-2675],[-2716],[-2751],[-2783],[-2808],[-2831],[-2845],[-2860],[-2868],[-2877],[-2884],[-2887],[-2890],[-2894],[-2897],[-2902],[-2908],[-2915],[-2924],[-2936]]]

[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"1000","axis_min":"-3200","axis_max":"2000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

In the three selected series, net overseas migration is projected to decline from the high recorded in 2017 to its longer term average.
Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 1,400 to 2,200 people per year from 2027.
Hobart is assumed to receive around 60% of the state's net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

Under high and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain and loss of 1,500 people respectively from 2027.
Under medium assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to be zero (arrivals equal departures).

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of Tasmania is projected to increase:

from 42.2 years in 2017 to between 44.7 and 49.6 years in 2066, remaining the highest of all states or territories
for males by 2.6 to 7.2 years to be between 43.6 and 48.2 years
for females by 2.6 to 7.7 years to be between 45.9 and 51.0 years

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0–14 is projected to decrease from 18% to between 17% to 14% in 2066
working age population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease from 63% to between 57% and 55%
people aged 65 and over will increase from 19% in 2017 to between 27% and 30%

Population proportion(a), Tasmania
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.07	1.13	1.02	0.87
1	1.16	1.14	1.03	0.88
2	1.14	1.15	1.04	0.89
3	1.15	1.15	1.05	0.91
4	1.17	1.16	1.06	0.92
5	1.18	1.17	1.07	0.93
6	1.23	1.17	1.08	0.94
7	1.22	1.17	1.08	0.95
8	1.27	1.17	1.09	0.96
9	1.28	1.17	1.10	0.98
10	1.26	1.17	1.10	0.99
11	1.23	1.16	1.10	1.00
12	1.19	1.16	1.11	1.01
13	1.14	1.16	1.11	1.02
14	1.14	1.16	1.12	1.03
15	1.19	1.15	1.12	1.04
16	1.21	1.15	1.12	1.05
17	1.24	1.14	1.12	1.05
18	1.25	1.12	1.11	1.04
19	1.19	1.09	1.07	1.00
20	1.19	1.07	1.05	0.98
21	1.20	1.05	1.04	0.97
22	1.25	1.05	1.03	0.97
23	1.22	1.05	1.03	0.96
24	1.21	1.04	1.02	0.94
25	1.21	1.03	1.01	0.93
26	1.22	1.03	1.01	0.93
27	1.21	1.04	1.01	0.93
28	1.17	1.04	1.02	0.93
29	1.19	1.05	1.02	0.93
30	1.16	1.06	1.03	0.94
31	1.19	1.07	1.04	0.96
32	1.19	1.08	1.05	0.97
33	1.17	1.09	1.07	0.98
34	1.16	1.10	1.08	1.00
35	1.15	1.12	1.09	1.01
36	1.14	1.13	1.11	1.03
37	1.11	1.14	1.12	1.05
38	1.11	1.15	1.14	1.06
39	1.11	1.15	1.14	1.07
40	1.08	1.15	1.15	1.09
41	1.13	1.15	1.16	1.11
42	1.18	1.14	1.16	1.12
43	1.21	1.14	1.16	1.13
44	1.27	1.14	1.17	1.14
45	1.36	1.13	1.17	1.16
46	1.39	1.13	1.17	1.17
47	1.33	1.13	1.18	1.18
48	1.34	1.12	1.18	1.19
49	1.29	1.09	1.15	1.17
50	1.26	1.13	1.20	1.23
51	1.25	1.12	1.19	1.22
52	1.30	1.13	1.19	1.23
53	1.43	1.15	1.21	1.25
54	1.42	1.15	1.22	1.26
55	1.46	1.17	1.24	1.27
56	1.50	1.18	1.25	1.29
57	1.46	1.19	1.26	1.30
58	1.44	1.20	1.27	1.31
59	1.41	1.19	1.27	1.31
60	1.38	1.18	1.25	1.30
61	1.38	1.16	1.23	1.28
62	1.31	1.15	1.22	1.27
63	1.30	1.15	1.23	1.28
64	1.32	1.16	1.24	1.31
65	1.30	1.18	1.26	1.34
66	1.28	1.19	1.27	1.36
67	1.25	1.19	1.28	1.37
68	1.20	1.18	1.27	1.37
69	1.21	1.17	1.27	1.38
70	1.27	1.17	1.27	1.38
71	1.02	1.18	1.27	1.40
72	0.97	1.14	1.24	1.38
73	0.93	1.11	1.21	1.34
74	0.82	1.09	1.18	1.32
75	0.79	1.08	1.16	1.31
76	0.74	1.05	1.14	1.28
77	0.69	1.01	1.08	1.23
78	0.64	0.98	1.05	1.19
79	0.60	0.94	1.00	1.14
80	0.55	0.92	0.97	1.11
81	0.50	0.88	0.92	1.06
82	0.44	0.84	0.86	1.00
83	0.43	0.80	0.81	0.94
84	0.38	0.75	0.75	0.87

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":".25","axis_max":"1.75","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Northern Territory

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	2.14	81.9	82.9	2,480	-3,000
Medium series	1.98	77.6	80.4	2,030	-1,000
Low series	1.81	77.6	80.4	1,580	1,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

The Northern Territory's population of 247,700 people is projected to:

increase between 0.2% and 1.9% per year
reach a population between 275,100 and 622,000 by 2066

Most of the Northern Territory's growth is projected to occur in Darwin. Darwin is projected to increase from:

60% of the territory's population in 2017 to between 63% and 64% in 2027
148,900 people in 2017 to between 164,500 and 187,000 by 2027

Population growth for the rest of the Northern Territory is smaller, with some series projecting population decline.

Projected population, Northern Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2017	247,659	247,659	247,659	247,659	247,659
2018	249,402	249,796	249,678	249,178	249,902
2019	251,306	252,035	252,227	250,718	252,816
2020	253,325	254,322	255,265	252,228	256,366
2021	255,417	257,110	258,255	253,659	260,021
2022	257,584	259,911	261,683	255,003	264,281
2023	259,839	263,224	265,559	256,263	269,168
2024	262,156	266,539	269,862	257,409	274,666
2025	264,530	269,844	274,093	258,438	280,277
2026	266,997	273,668	278,764	259,363	286,536
2027	269,535	277,485	283,854	260,159	293,435
2028	272,090	281,308	288,943	260,901	300,425
2029	274,645	285,135	294,046	261,604	307,483
2030	277,204	288,967	299,160	262,268	314,609
2031	279,767	292,807	304,284	262,898	321,801
2032	282,338	296,650	309,419	263,494	329,058
2033	284,916	300,499	314,560	264,058	336,380
2034	287,505	304,354	319,708	264,595	343,766
2035	290,107	308,217	324,864	265,107	351,217
2036	292,725	312,090	330,030	265,596	358,732
2037	295,361	315,979	335,209	266,067	366,316
2038	298,018	319,883	340,403	266,522	373,968
2039	300,697	323,808	345,614	266,964	381,690
2040	303,401	327,753	350,842	267,395	389,482
2041	306,130	331,718	356,089	267,815	397,345
2042	308,885	335,704	361,352	268,227	405,282
2043	311,666	339,712	366,632	268,629	413,293
2044	314,476	343,743	371,927	269,021	421,377
2045	317,317	347,796	377,237	269,404	429,539
2046	320,188	351,872	382,558	269,777	437,778
2047	323,094	355,972	387,892	270,140	446,098
2048	326,036	360,096	393,234	270,494	454,501
2049	329,016	364,244	398,585	270,838	462,992
2050	332,035	368,415	403,945	271,173	471,573
2051	335,096	372,612	409,310	271,496	480,247
2052	338,200	376,835	414,680	271,808	489,018
2053	341,351	381,087	420,054	272,109	497,887
2054	344,550	385,366	425,431	272,398	506,857
2055	347,798	389,672	430,807	272,676	515,931
2056	351,092	394,006	436,186	272,945	525,106
2057	354,434	398,366	441,566	273,204	534,383
2058	357,822	402,748	446,945	273,454	543,760
2059	361,256	407,155	452,322	273,695	553,236
2060	364,735	411,583	457,698	273,927	562,807
2061	368,257	416,033	463,072	274,148	572,469
2062	371,817	420,503	468,445	274,358	582,221
2063	375,414	424,989	473,816	274,559	592,056
2064	379,048	429,495	479,186	274,752	601,973
2065	382,712	434,019	484,555	274,937	611,970
2066	386,411	438,561	489,923	275,115	622,047

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

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[]

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The largest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because the Northern Territory experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

In the three selected series, the number of births will continue to exceed deaths, resulting in natural increase for the Northern Territory.
Increasing numbers of births in Darwin leads natural increase to grow in all series.
In the rest of the Northern Territory, the level of natural increase declines in all three series.

Projected natural increase, Northern Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	2,861	2,861	2,861
2018	2,887	2,850	2,801
2019	2,895	2,829	2,746
2020	2,903	2,811	2,703
2021	2,918	2,797	2,674
2022	2,936	2,789	2,634
2023	2,955	2,780	2,602
2024	2,976	2,781	2,576
2025	3,002	2,782	2,556
2026	3,030	2,783	2,534
2027	3,063	2,792	2,515
2028	3,080	2,798	2,514
2029	3,080	2,802	2,528
2030	3,084	2,807	2,539
2031	3,088	2,815	2,549
2032	3,096	2,818	2,560
2033	3,103	2,824	2,566
2034	3,114	2,830	2,573
2035	3,127	2,838	2,581
2036	3,143	2,848	2,591
2037	3,161	2,864	2,604
2038	3,182	2,879	2,619
2039	3,204	2,900	2,636
2040	3,229	2,920	2,653
2041	3,254	2,940	2,672
2042	3,280	2,961	2,688
2043	3,306	2,983	2,705
2044	3,335	3,006	2,720
2045	3,366	3,028	2,735
2046	3,396	3,051	2,746
2047	3,431	3,075	2,759
2048	3,467	3,099	2,767
2049	3,505	3,123	2,776
2050	3,544	3,146	2,785
2051	3,586	3,172	2,790
2052	3,629	3,198	2,795
2053	3,676	3,227	2,799
2054	3,724	3,254	2,802
2055	3,773	3,281	2,801
2056	3,819	3,309	2,804
2057	3,867	3,335	2,805
2058	3,913	3,357	2,804
2059	3,959	3,382	2,802
2060	4,004	3,403	2,801
2061	4,047	3,425	2,799
2062	4,085	3,445	2,798
2063	4,122	3,461	2,796
2064	4,159	3,481	2,795
2065	4,189	3,499	2,794
2066	4,224	3,517	2,793

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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Net overseas migration

In all series, overseas arrivals will exceed departures resulting in positive net overseas migration from 2,500 to 1,600 people per year.
Darwin is assumed to receive 76% of the territory's net overseas migration.

Net interstate migration

Under medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,000 to 3,000 people from 2027.
Under low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to gain 1,000 people from 2027.

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of the Northern Territory is projected to increase from:

32.6 years in 2017 to between 33.9 and 37.1 years in 2066, remaining the lowest of all states and territories
for males by 2.9 to 4.8 years to be between 34.2 and 37.4 years
for females by 2.3 to 4.2 years to be between 33.5 and 36.7 years

Age structure

The proportion of

children aged 0–14 is projected to remain the same under high assumptions at 22%, but decrease under medium and low assumptions to be between 19% and 21% in 2066
working age population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease from 71% in 2017 to between 67% and 68%
people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 7.2% in 2017 to between 11% and 13%

Population proportion(a), Northern Territory
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.58	1.61	1.46	1.30
1	1.63	1.59	1.45	1.30
2	1.52	1.56	1.44	1.29
3	1.49	1.54	1.42	1.28
4	1.51	1.53	1.42	1.28
5	1.56	1.52	1.41	1.28
6	1.51	1.51	1.40	1.28
7	1.49	1.49	1.40	1.28
8	1.45	1.48	1.39	1.28
9	1.45	1.45	1.37	1.27
10	1.39	1.42	1.35	1.25
11	1.36	1.39	1.33	1.24
12	1.27	1.35	1.30	1.22
13	1.24	1.31	1.27	1.19
14	1.28	1.28	1.24	1.17
15	1.26	1.25	1.22	1.15
16	1.25	1.23	1.19	1.14
17	1.20	1.22	1.18	1.13
18	1.17	1.20	1.17	1.12
19	1.21	1.19	1.16	1.12
20	1.26	1.23	1.20	1.15
21	1.28	1.31	1.27	1.21
22	1.47	1.40	1.35	1.28
23	1.55	1.48	1.42	1.34
24	1.66	1.56	1.49	1.41
25	1.85	1.64	1.57	1.48
26	1.95	1.66	1.60	1.52
27	2.01	1.67	1.62	1.54
28	1.99	1.68	1.63	1.56
29	2.06	1.70	1.66	1.59
30	2.05	1.72	1.68	1.61
31	1.96	1.71	1.68	1.62
32	1.92	1.69	1.67	1.62
33	1.86	1.67	1.66	1.61
34	1.87	1.66	1.65	1.61
35	1.73	1.63	1.63	1.60
36	1.66	1.61	1.62	1.59
37	1.55	1.60	1.61	1.59
38	1.53	1.57	1.58	1.57
39	1.47	1.54	1.57	1.56
40	1.43	1.52	1.55	1.56
41	1.45	1.49	1.53	1.54
42	1.37	1.45	1.50	1.53
43	1.43	1.42	1.47	1.51
44	1.33	1.40	1.46	1.51
45	1.43	1.38	1.44	1.50
46	1.52	1.35	1.42	1.48
47	1.39	1.31	1.38	1.45
48	1.35	1.28	1.36	1.43
49	1.30	1.23	1.31	1.38
50	1.29	1.24	1.32	1.41
51	1.30	1.21	1.29	1.37
52	1.20	1.18	1.26	1.34
53	1.23	1.17	1.25	1.33
54	1.26	1.14	1.22	1.30
55	1.23	1.11	1.19	1.27
56	1.18	1.10	1.17	1.25
57	1.13	1.06	1.14	1.22
58	1.05	1.04	1.11	1.19
59	1.00	1.00	1.08	1.15
60	0.98	0.95	1.02	1.09
61	0.94	0.89	0.96	1.03
62	0.89	0.85	0.92	0.99
63	0.83	0.81	0.88	0.96
64	0.82	0.78	0.84	0.92
65	0.73	0.75	0.81	0.89
66	0.67	0.71	0.78	0.86
67	0.64	0.67	0.74	0.82
68	0.58	0.63	0.70	0.78
69	0.54	0.60	0.66	0.75
70	0.50	0.57	0.63	0.71
71	0.42	0.55	0.60	0.68
72	0.36	0.51	0.56	0.64
73	0.33	0.48	0.52	0.60
74	0.30	0.45	0.49	0.56
75	0.30	0.43	0.46	0.53
76	0.27	0.41	0.44	0.50
77	0.24	0.38	0.40	0.46
78	0.16	0.36	0.38	0.43
79	0.16	0.34	0.35	0.40
80	0.14	0.32	0.33	0.37
81	0.13	0.29	0.30	0.34
82	0.10	0.28	0.28	0.31
83	0.09	0.26	0.25	0.29
84	0.08	0.23	0.23	0.26

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[]

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The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Australian Capital Territory

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(a)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.79	88.8	90.0	3,850	1,500
Medium series	1.65	84.0	86.6	3,150	500
Low series	1.51	84.0	86.6	2,450	-1,000

a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.

Population size and change

The Australian Capital Territory’s population of 412,000 people is projected to:

increase between 0.8% and 1.7% per year
reach between 479,200 and 510,000 by 2066

Projected population, Australian Capital Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	411,986	411,986	411,986
2018	421,374	420,667	420,446
2019	431,030	429,490	428,926
2020	440,789	438,275	436,757
2021	450,617	446,983	444,392
2022	460,498	455,610	451,306
2023	470,375	464,083	457,937
2024	480,274	471,939	463,800
2025	490,175	479,645	469,381
2026	500,092	487,211	474,675
2027	510,021	494,613	479,167
2028	520,006	501,981	483,553
2029	530,036	509,325	487,867
2030	540,103	516,641	492,105
2031	550,204	523,922	496,261
2032	560,335	531,165	500,330
2033	570,494	538,367	504,313
2034	580,681	545,531	508,213
2035	590,897	552,660	512,034
2036	601,142	559,760	515,785
2037	611,431	566,838	519,472
2038	621,764	573,899	523,105
2039	632,144	580,948	526,691
2040	642,574	587,991	530,236
2041	653,055	595,034	533,745
2042	663,587	602,077	537,222
2043	674,172	609,125	540,671
2044	684,811	616,180	544,097
2045	695,506	623,242	547,499
2046	706,258	630,314	550,878
2047	717,072	637,395	554,235
2048	727,951	644,486	557,567
2049	738,900	651,589	560,875
2050	749,928	658,708	564,156
2051	761,037	665,843	567,411
2052	772,233	672,996	570,638
2053	783,522	680,167	573,838
2054	794,909	687,360	577,009
2055	806,395	694,575	580,150
2056	817,980	701,810	583,260
2057	829,664	709,062	586,336
2058	841,447	716,330	589,378
2059	853,328	723,613	592,388
2060	865,301	730,907	595,364
2061	877,364	738,209	598,305
2062	889,508	745,519	601,211
2063	901,727	752,831	604,081
2064	914,012	760,139	606,915
2065	926,355	767,438	609,712
2066	938,751	774,725	612,469

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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Natural increase

In the three selected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Australian Capital Territory.

Projected natural increase, Australian Capital Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2017	3,853	3,796	3,725
2018	3,939	3,815	3,695
2019	4,026	3,833	3,661
2020	4,124	3,857	3,622
2021	4,205	3,860	3,556
2022	4,287	3,859	3,477
2023	4,366	3,852	3,388
2024	4,439	3,826	3,283
2025	4,511	3,795	3,171
2026	4,579	3,752	3,042
2027	4,635	3,718	2,936
2028	4,680	3,694	2,864
2029	4,717	3,666	2,788
2030	4,751	3,631	2,706
2031	4,781	3,593	2,619
2032	4,809	3,552	2,533
2033	4,837	3,514	2,450
2034	4,866	3,479	2,371
2035	4,895	3,450	2,301
2036	4,939	3,428	2,237
2037	4,983	3,411	2,183
2038	5,030	3,399	2,136
2039	5,080	3,393	2,095
2040	5,131	3,393	2,059
2041	5,182	3,393	2,027
2042	5,235	3,398	1,999
2043	5,289	3,405	1,976
2044	5,345	3,412	1,952
2045	5,402	3,422	1,929
2046	5,464	3,431	1,907
2047	5,529	3,441	1,882
2048	5,599	3,453	1,858
2049	5,678	3,469	1,831
2050	5,759	3,485	1,805
2051	5,846	3,503	1,777
2052	5,939	3,521	1,750
2053	6,037	3,543	1,721
2054	6,136	3,565	1,691
2055	6,235	3,585	1,660
2056	6,334	3,602	1,626
2057	6,433	3,618	1,592
2058	6,531	3,633	1,560
2059	6,623	3,644	1,526
2060	6,713	3,652	1,491
2061	6,794	3,660	1,456
2062	6,869	3,662	1,420
2063	6,935	3,658	1,384
2064	6,993	3,649	1,347
2065	7,046	3,637	1,307
2066	7,026	3,608	1,255

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"1000","axis_min":"1000","axis_max":"8000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

The three selected series project a decline in net overseas migration from the recent high in 2017, returning to longer term averages.
Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration gain of between 2,500 and 3,900 people.

Net interstate migration

Under medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain of 500 to 1,500 people per year from 2027.
Under low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase from:

35.0 years in 2017 to between 36.9 and 40.2 years in 2066
for males by 1.9 to 4.9 years to be between 36.3 and 39.3 years
for females by 2.5 to 5.5 years to be between 37.6 and 41.2 years

Age structure

The proportion of:

children aged 0–14 is projected to decrease from 19.0% in 2017 to between 16% and 19% in 2066
working age population aged 15–65 is projected to decrease from 69% to between 64% and 65%
people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 13% in 2017 to between 17% and 20%

Population proportion(a), Australian Capital Territory
Age	ERP - 2017 (%)	High series - 2066 (%)	Medium series - 2066 (%)	Low series - 2066 (%)
0	1.36	1.31	1.20	1.05
1	1.39	1.30	1.19	1.05
2	1.41	1.29	1.19	1.05
3	1.36	1.28	1.18	1.04
4	1.38	1.27	1.18	1.05
5	1.36	1.27	1.18	1.05
6	1.33	1.25	1.17	1.05
7	1.33	1.24	1.16	1.05
8	1.26	1.23	1.15	1.05
9	1.22	1.21	1.14	1.04
10	1.18	1.19	1.13	1.04
11	1.18	1.18	1.12	1.04
12	1.10	1.17	1.12	1.04
13	1.07	1.15	1.11	1.03
14	1.05	1.14	1.10	1.03
15	1.04	1.13	1.10	1.03
16	1.07	1.13	1.10	1.04
17	1.12	1.15	1.12	1.07
18	1.28	1.28	1.26	1.21
19	1.48	1.39	1.37	1.32
20	1.56	1.44	1.42	1.37
21	1.59	1.46	1.44	1.39
22	1.64	1.49	1.48	1.43
23	1.72	1.53	1.51	1.46
24	1.67	1.55	1.54	1.48
25	1.61	1.55	1.53	1.46
26	1.69	1.53	1.51	1.44
27	1.68	1.53	1.50	1.43
28	1.69	1.52	1.50	1.43
29	1.66	1.52	1.49	1.42
30	1.66	1.50	1.48	1.41
31	1.71	1.49	1.47	1.40
32	1.70	1.49	1.48	1.41
33	1.74	1.49	1.47	1.41
34	1.66	1.49	1.47	1.41
35	1.67	1.48	1.47	1.41
36	1.61	1.47	1.46	1.41
37	1.54	1.46	1.46	1.40
38	1.50	1.44	1.44	1.39
39	1.40	1.42	1.43	1.38
40	1.41	1.40	1.41	1.38
41	1.36	1.38	1.40	1.37
42	1.38	1.36	1.39	1.37
43	1.38	1.34	1.37	1.37
44	1.39	1.32	1.36	1.37
45	1.41	1.29	1.34	1.35
46	1.43	1.27	1.32	1.34
47	1.33	1.25	1.30	1.34
48	1.28	1.22	1.28	1.32
49	1.22	1.17	1.23	1.28
50	1.17	1.19	1.26	1.31
51	1.21	1.16	1.23	1.28
52	1.16	1.15	1.21	1.26
53	1.19	1.14	1.20	1.25
54	1.16	1.12	1.18	1.23
55	1.20	1.09	1.15	1.21
56	1.16	1.07	1.13	1.19
57	1.11	1.04	1.10	1.15
58	1.07	1.02	1.08	1.13
59	1.05	0.99	1.05	1.10
60	1.01	0.96	1.01	1.06
61	0.98	0.92	0.97	1.02
62	0.92	0.89	0.94	0.99
63	0.90	0.87	0.92	0.97
64	0.91	0.85	0.90	0.96
65	0.87	0.84	0.89	0.96
66	0.85	0.82	0.88	0.94
67	0.83	0.80	0.86	0.93
68	0.82	0.79	0.85	0.92
69	0.82	0.77	0.83	0.91
70	0.83	0.75	0.81	0.90
71	0.68	0.74	0.80	0.89
72	0.61	0.72	0.78	0.87
73	0.58	0.69	0.74	0.83
74	0.52	0.66	0.72	0.81
75	0.51	0.66	0.71	0.81
76	0.45	0.65	0.70	0.80
77	0.43	0.62	0.67	0.77
78	0.40	0.60	0.64	0.74
79	0.38	0.58	0.62	0.71
80	0.35	0.57	0.60	0.70
81	0.32	0.55	0.57	0.67
82	0.29	0.53	0.55	0.64
83	0.26	0.50	0.51	0.60
84	0.24	0.47	0.48	0.56

["Age","ERP - 2017","High series - 2066","Medium series - 2066","Low series - 2066"]

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[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"0.25","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"2","axis_title":"%","precision":"2","table_units":"(%)","tooltip_units":"(%)","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

All data cubes

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Data downloads - data cubes

Projected population, components of change and summary statistics - Australia, state/territory, greater capital city and rest of state, 2017 (base) to 2066

Data files

Download xls [907.5 KB]

Projection assumptions (detailed)

Data files

Download xls [17.79 MB]

Data downloads - ABS.Stat datasets

Help for: ABS.Stat Datasets

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3222.0.

Methodology