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Population Projections, Australia

Population projections (based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration) for Australia, states and territories and capital cities

Reference period
2017 (base) - 2066

Key statistics

  • Australia's population in 2017 (24.6 million) is projected to reach between 37.4 and 49.2 million people by 2066.
  • The current average annual growth rate (1.7%) is projected to decline to between 0.9% and 1.4%.
  • The median age (37.2 years) is projected to increase to between 39.5 and 43.0 years.

These projections are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066. 

Users should assess the available assumptions and choose the combination that best suits their needs. 

Assumptions

Introduction

The Australian Bureau of Statistics uses the cohort-component method for producing population projections. In this method, assumptions made about future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are applied to a base population (applied by sex and single year of age) to obtain a projected population for the following year. The assumptions are then applied to this new (projected) population to obtain a projected population for the next year. This process is repeated until the end of the projection period is reached.

Span of projections

From a base of 30 June 2017, the projections span the period 30 June 2018 to 30 June 2066 for Australia, states, territories, capital cities and rest of state. Estimated resident population for 30 June 2017 for all above mentioned geographies have also been included in the data.

Base population

The base population is the preliminary estimated resident population at 30 June 2017, which takes into account the 2016 Census of Population and Housing.

Summary

Assumptions have been formulated on the basis of demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and overseas, in conjunction with consultation with experts at the national and state/territory level. They do not specifically attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes.

As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.
 

Summary of assumptions
Summary of assumptions

The diagram illustrates how using the current long-term trends in fertility, mortality and migration, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. This presents a range of possible future outcomes for Australia's population.

The table below shows how recent demographic trends (an average of the last three years) relate to the proposed assumptions. The projections will show a smooth transition from the most recently observed data to the long-range assumption. This 'phase-in' period is different for each component assumption and so the table also shows the year that each assumption will be phased in by.

Summary of assumptions

 Recent observed averageLow assumptionMedium assumptionHigh AssumptionPhased in by
Total fertility rate(a)1.801.651.801.952026-27
Male life expectancy at birth(a)80.483.083.087.72065-66
Female life expectancy at birth(a)84.686.086.089.22065-66
Net overseas migration(b)217,600175,000225,000275,0002026-27
Net interstate migration. .small flowsmedium flowslarge flows2026-27
. . not applicable
a. Recent observed average is for calendar years 2014-2016.
b. Recent observed average is for financial years 2015-2017. 
 

Projection series

The above assumptions can be combined to create 54 sets of population projections. Three series have been selected from these to provide a range, although not the full range, of projections for analysis and discussion. These series are referred to as series high, medium and low.

For some states, the high to low series do not depict the highest or lowest population outcomes. Where applicable, other series have been included in commentary.

The inclusion of a zero net overseas migration assumption increases the total number of available projections to 72 series. These extra series (series 55 to 72) do not feature in the commentary and analysis but are included in the ABS.Stat datasets attached to this publication.

Future uncertainty, along with the subjective nature of assessing current trends, means that using a range of possible outcomes rather than a single projection series give a more realistic view of the possible future size, distribution and age structure of Australia's population.

Different series, constructed from varying combinations of assumptions, are appropriate for different time horizons (shorter or longer term), the geographic region(s) considered, and any volatility in the components. Historically, mortality and fertility have been consistent with slow-moving trends in the data. The projections reflect this. Observed levels of overseas and interstate migration have been far more volatile. This volatility can be expected to continue due to future government policies and decision making, and economic, social and other influences in Australia and overseas.

Fertility

Summary

Future trends in fertility are an important determinant of Australia's future population size, structure and growth. To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, assumptions of age-specific fertility rates and the sex ratio at birth are required for each year of the projection period.

Using data from the past 20 years, three long-term assumptions have been made regarding Australia's future total fertility rate (TFR): higher fertility (a TFR of 1.95 babies per woman), medium fertility (1.8) and lower fertility (1.65). Under all three assumptions, the trend towards older ages of mothers is assumed to continue to 2027, but at a slower rate than seen historically, and remain constant thereafter. For all years, the sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births.

Trends in the total fertility rate

In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', Australia's TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Since then fertility has declined, falling sharply during the early 1960s, before levelling out at around 2.9 babies per woman in the years 1966–1971. The TFR was last at replacement level (2.1) in 1975, and continued to fall thereafter. Fertility stabilised somewhat during the 1980s, before resuming a more gradual decline during the 1990s. The TFR reached a low of 1.7 babies per woman in 2001, increased again to 2.0, before declining to 1.8 in 2016.

Assumed total fertility rates

The three assumptions for Australia's future fertility levels are made with regard to recent trends in the TFR, especially those of the past 20 years.

The higher fertility scenario assumes that Australia's TFR will reach 1.95 babies per woman by 2027 and remain constant thereafter. This reflects levels of fertility recorded since 1977 of between 1.7 and 2.0 babies per woman, acknowledging the possibility that the TFR could increase more, especially in the short-term.

The medium scenario assumes a continuation of the current TFR, with the TFR to remain steady at 1.8 to 2027 and remaining constant thereafter.

Under the lower fertility assumption the TFR declines to 1.65 babies per woman by 2031 and remaining constant thereafter. Fertility rates have reached low levels in many European countries, and higher-income Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

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  1. Babies per 1000 woman.
  2. Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag.
     

State/territory and capital city/rest of state observed fertility

The table below shows the TFRs for all states and territories and Australia from 2007 to 2016. Some states have consistently been higher or lower than the national rate, while others have fluctuated over the past 20 years. In recent years, TFRs for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT have been lower than rates for Australia as a whole, while TFRs for the remaining states and territories, particularly Tasmania and the Northern Territory, have been higher.

Total fertility rates(a)

Year ending 31 DecemberNSWVic.QldSAWATas.NTACTAust.
20072.021.892.111.932.042.212.251.702.00
20082.021.872.111.942.022.242.191.722.00
20091.991.852.071.901.982.202.171.751.97
20101.981.822.041.881.932.082.111.761.94
20111.961.812.001.901.922.142.131.781.92
20121.981.862.021.901.942.042.131.781.95
20131.871.811.951.831.892.012.051.771.87
20141.851.791.931.861.901.942.011.761.86
20151.811.731.841.771.871.882.001.731.80
20161.801.711.841.751.901.931.961.731.79
a. Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag. This differs to the Total Fertility Rates published in Births, Australia (cat. no. 3301.0) and Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).  
 

The ratio of each state and territories' average TFR for the ten years 2007–2016 to that of Australia is calculated, then applied to assumed future Australian TFRs. These ratios remain constant throughout the projection period.

Assumed TFRs for the capital cities and state balances are derived by applying the average ratio (for 2007–2016) of the region to its respective state/territory to that state/territory's assumed TFR. Fertility rates for Australian capital cities are typically lower than rates for their respective states and territories, while rates for state balances are higher.

Total fertility rates and fertility ratios

 Total fertility rate(a)(b)Assumed fertility ratios(c)
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
rateraterate%%%
New South Wales
1.85 
2.10
1.93
96.1
109.1
101.0
Victoria
1.75
2.11
1.81
96.3
116.5
95.0
Queensland
1.90
2.09
1.99
95.3
105.2
104.2
South Australia
1.80
2.19
1.87
96.6
117.3
97.7
Western Australia
1.88
2.23
1.94
96.9
114.8
101.6
Tasmania
2.02
2.11
2.07
97.7
102.2
108.2
Northern Territory
2.00
2.17
2.10
95.1
103.3
109.9
Australian Capital Territory
. .
. .
1.75
. .
. .
91.6
Australia(d)
. .
. .
1.91
. .
. .
100.0
. . not applicable 
a. Babies per woman.
b. Average of 2007–2016 TFRs.
c. Assumed fertility ratios show the relationship of the average TFR for 2007–2016 for each state/territory to Australia; capital city to state/territory; and rest of state/territory to state/territory.
d. Includes Other Territories.

 

Assumed total fertility rates(a), from 2027

 Higher assumptionMedium assumptionLower assumption
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
rateraterateraterateraterateraterate
New South Wales
1.89
2.15
1.97
1.75
1.98
1.82
1.60
1.82
1.67
Victoria
1.78
2.16
1.85
1.65
1.99
1.71
1.51
1.83
1.57
Queensland
1.94
2.14
2.03
1.79
1.97
1.88
1.64
1.81
1.72
South Australia
1.84
2.24
1.91
1.70
2.06
1.76
1.56
1.89
1.61
Western Australia
1.92
2.28
1.98
1.77
2.10
1.83
1.63
1.93
1.68
Tasmania
2.06
2.16
2.11
1.90
1.99
1.95
1.75
1.83
1.79
Northern Territory
2.04
2.21
2.14
1.88
2.04
1.98
1.73
1.87
1.81
Australian Capital Territory
. .
. .
1.79
. .
. .
1.65
. .
. .
1.51
Australia(b)
. .
. .
1.95
. .
. .
1.80
. .
. .
1.65
. . not applicable
a. Babies per woman.
b. Includes Other Territories.

 

Age-specific fertility rates

Population projections require assumptions about future age-specific fertility rates, which are derived from assumed TFRs and age distributions of fertility. These rates are applied to the projected female population in each year of the projection period in order to determine future numbers of births, and therefore the size of future projected populations. 

Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst increasing among women aged 30 years and over, representing a gradual shift in fertility towards older ages. 

The projected age distribution of mothers is based on half the average rate of change in the age-specific fertility rates during the period 2012–2016. The historical rate of change is assumed to slow down due to limits on child-bearing ages. These trends are assumed to continue under all three fertility scenarios until 2027, after which the age pattern of fertility remains constant.

Linear interpolation is used to obtain TFRs for each year 2017 to 2026 for all three scenarios, using the known TFR for 2016 and assumed TFR for 2027. To create assumed age-specific fertility rates, the assumed distribution of age of mothers is then applied to the assumed TFR for the corresponding projection year.

Download
  1. Babies per 1,000 woman.
     

Sex ratio at birth

Projections require an assumed sex ratio at birth (the ratio of male to female births), so that total projected births can be split into male and female births.

Historically, the sex ratio fluctuates between 105 to 106 male births per 100 female births. A constant ratio of 105.5 male births per 100 female births has been used for the duration of the projection period.

Mortality

Summary

For the population projections in this issue, two assumptions on future life expectancy at birth have been made. Only two assumptions have been made because life expectancy has consistently shown an improving trend since Australian records began.

The higher life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will continue to improve at the average rate observed in 2012–2016. The medium life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will also improve, but at a declining rate.

Life tables for 2015–2017 were not created in time to be included in the mortality assumption process.

Trends in life expectancy

Australian life expectancy at birth has improved steadily for both men and women. Since the early 1920s, life expectancy at birth for both males and females has increased by about 21 years. Since the 1980s, faster increases for males has narrowed the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 7 to 4 years. Recent years has seen the improvement in life expectancy declining for both males and females, with both males and females recording an improvement of 0.06 years in 2014–2016.

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Assumed life expectancy at birth

The higher life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will continuously increase at the average growth of 2012–2016. The yearly increase of life expectancy of birth for the higher assumption is about 0.14 for males and 0.09 for females. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth reaches 87.68 years in 2066 and female life expectancy at birth reaches 89.16 years. 

The medium life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will increase at a slightly lower rate than the higher assumption for the first year, and then gradually slow. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth would reach 83.00 years and female life expectancy at birth would reach 86.00 years in 2066.

Assumed life expectancy at birth

 MalesFemalesDifference
yearsyearsyears
Declining improvement in life expectancy (Medium assumption)
2020–21
81.11
84.92
3.81
2025–26
81.53
85.16
3.63
2030–31
81.78
85.30
3.52
2035–36
81.95
85.40
3.45
2065–66
83.00
86.00
3.00
Constant improvement in life expectancy (Higher assumption)
2020–21
81.23
84.98
3.75
2025–26
81.94
85.39
3.45
2030–31
82.66
85.80
3.14
2035–36
83.38
86.22
2.84
2065–66
87.68
89.16
1.48
 

Age-specific death rates

The inputs of the mortality component of population projections are 'survivorship ratios' obtained from assumed future life tables. Life tables for each year in the projection period (i.e. 2018–2066) are calculated in two steps: (1) life expectancy at birth for each projection year is determined; and (2) a life table is generated which gives the desired life expectancy at birth and allows for a shift in the age curve of mortality over time.

The shifting age curve of mortality over time should ideally represent current trends in age-sex differences continued into the future. To achieve this, rates of change indicative of recent trends for each age-sex group are incorporated in the production of the assumed life tables. Determining assumed rates of change is achieved by observing historical patterns in age-specific death rates.

Between 2006 and 2016, males aged 0–29, males aged 65–79 and females aged 0–9 had the largest relative declines in age-specific death rates. The groups with the least improvement in death rates were males aged 40–49, males aged over 95, females aged 35–49 and females aged over 90. In general, greater change over time has been observed for males compared to females.

These trends are reflected in the assumptions. The assumed rates of change of age-specific death rates over time continues to 2035–36, after which the age-specific death rates are proportionally adjusted to fit the assumed life expectancy at birth.

Assumed age-specific mortality rates

Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to decrease for all age groups for both males and females over the projection period. Very little change is assumed for ages over 90. For corresponding ages, mortality rates for females are always assumed to be lower than for males.

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  1. Mortality rates are the q(x) values from the life table developed for these assumptions.
  2. y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.
     
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  1. Mortality rates are the q(x) values from the life table developed for these assumptions.
  2. y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.
     

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state mortality

Assumptions of life expectancy at birth by state/territory are derived from the Australian assumptions by applying a ten year average of the ratio of the state or territory life expectancy to the Australian life expectancy. A similar process is used to create the capital city/rest of state assumptions, by using the ratio of capital city/rest of state life expectancy to the state life expectancy for the most recent life table period 2014–2016. These ratios are calculated separately for males and females and remain constant through the projection period.

Mortality ratios(a)

 Life expectancy at birth 2014-2016Male mortality ratiosFemale mortality ratios
MalesFemalesCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
YearsYears%%%%%%
New South Wales
80.42
84.58
101.5
98.5
100.0
101.1
99.1
100.1
Victoria
81.18
84.70
101.8
99.0
100.8
101.3
99.3
100.2
Queensland
80.11
84.47
100.3
99.2
99.6
100.2
99.7
99.9
South Australia
80.36
84.45
100.6
98.8
99.9
100.1
99.9
99.9
Western Australia
80.31
84.82
100.9
98.4
100.0
101.0
99.2
100.4
Tasmania
78.82
82.88
99.1
98.0
98.1
98.1
98.0
98.0
Northern Territory
75.56
78.66
96.1
90.1
93.4
98.2
89.7
93.5
Australian Capital Territory
81.26
85.22
. .
. .
101.2
. .
. .
100.7
Australia
80.45
84.56
. .
. .
100.0
. .
. .
100.0
. . not applicable
a. Mortality ratios based on the relationships of 2006–2016 life expectancies at birth between each state/territory and Australia, and 2014–2016 life expectancies at birth between each capital city and its state/territory, and between each rest of state/territory and its state/territory.
 

Net overseas migration

Summary

Three assumptions have been made about Australia's future levels of net overseas migration (NOM):

  • 275,000 people per year (higher),
  • 225,000 people per year (medium); and
  • 175,000 people per year (lower).
     

In addition, a zero net overseas migration assumption has been included to facilitate analysis of the effect of overseas migration on Australia's future population.

ABS projections have used forecasts produced by the Department of Home Affairs up until 2021–22. Beyond 2021–22, the NOM assumption reflects established trends observed in the period 2008–2017. All NOM assumptions are held constant from 2026–27 onwards.

Historical data

Annual levels of NOM have fluctuated considerably in Australia over the past 20 years. For financial years, the level has been as low as 80,000 in 1997-98 to a high of 300,000 in 2008-09.

Download
  1. NOM estimates include a break in series at September 2006
     

New South Wales was the largest gainer of NOM from 2008 to 2017, with Victoria being the second largest gainer. NOM for Queensland and Western Australia declined after those states recorded strong NOM gains at the start of the period. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have seen fluctuations in their NOM between 2008 and 2017, with Tasmania and the Northern Territory recording strong gains in 2017.

Net overseas migration

Year ending 30 JuneNSW ('000)Vic. ('000)Qld ('000)SA ('000)WA ('000)Tas. ('000)NT ('000)ACT ('000)Aust. ('000)
200887.473.653.915.341.21.81.62.5277.3
200986.783.659.318.044.32.12.13.6299.9
201057.253.735.814.528.91.71.23.1196.1
201151.744.634.69.236.41.01.11.7180.4
201257.256.246.512.450.81.53.34.0231.9
201366.859.041.811.742.11.64.42.9230.3
201467.056.927.211.618.81.81.82.7187.8
201570.360.720.411.214.11.52.43.5184.0
201680.072.225.011.311.61.81.03.3206.2
2017104.689.934.912.012.62.22.04.1262.3
 

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state share of net overseas migration

Previously, overseas migration data was not available below the state/territory level which meant an indirect method was used to calculate the capital city/rest of state level. With the release of sub-state population component data in the ABS publication Regional Population Growth, Australia (cat. no. 3218.0), regional overseas migration estimates have been used to calculate the capital city/rest of state for overseas migration.

Each state and territory's proportion of NOM is based on an average of the last ten years of NOM data. The table below shows the assumed state/territory net overseas migration distribution.

Assumed net overseas migration, state/territory share

 NSW (%)Vic. (%)Qld (%)SA (%)WA (%)Tas. (%)NT (%)ACT (%)
201839.0633.7513.734.575.920.780.691.50
201938.3233.2114.054.706.740.780.711.49
202037.5832.6714.374.827.560.780.741.48
202136.8432.1314.694.958.380.780.761.47
202236.1031.6015.005.079.200.790.781.46
202335.3631.0615.325.2010.020.790.811.44
202434.6230.5215.645.3210.840.790.831.43
202533.8829.9815.965.4511.660.790.851.42
202633.1429.4416.285.5712.480.800.881.41
2027-206632.4028.9016.605.7013.300.800.901.40
 

Assumed net overseas migration, from 2027

 Higher assumptionMedium assumptionLower assumption
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
New South Wales
76.74
12.37
89.10
62.34
10.56
72.90
47.95
8.76
56.70
Victoria
73.02
6.45
79.48
59.52
5.50
65.03
46.03
4.55
50.58
Queensland
27.41
18.24
45.65
22.24
15.12
37.35
17.06
12.00
29.05
South Australia
14.42
1.25
15.68
11.78
1.04
12.83
9.14
0.83
9.98
Western Australia
32.79
3.78
36.58
26.81
3.12
29.93
20.82
2.45
23.28
Tasmania
1.31
0.89
2.20
1.07
0.74
1.80
0.82
0.58
1.40
Northern Territory
1.89
0.59
2.48
1.55
0.48
2.03
1.20
0.37
1.58
Australian Capital Territory
. .
. .
3.85
. .
. .
3.15
. .
. .
2.45
Australia
231.44
43.56
275.00
188.45
36.55
225.00
145.46
29.54
175.00
. . not applicable

 

Assumed age structure of net overseas migration

The assumed age/sex structure of NOM for the states and territories is derived from the 2015–2017 NOM. Overseas migrant arrivals and departures by state/territory, age and sex are simultaneously constrained to the total assumed NOM level for Australia and to the assumed state/territory shares of NOM. The assumed age/sex structures are held constant throughout the projection period.

Net interstate migration

Summary

Interstate migration is a volatile and largely unpredictable component in population estimation or projection. The movement of people between the states and territories of Australia is influenced by many factors such as varying economic opportunities, overseas immigration and settlement patterns, lifestyle choices and marketing campaigns targeting interstate movers by state/territory governments. As the effect of these factors cannot be anticipated, past net interstate migration trends are used as the basis for assuming future levels.

Historical data

Net interstate migration (NIM) estimates since 1 July 2007 are shown below. These are calculated using Medicare change of address records, defence data and Census data on usual residence one year ago and five years ago.

Net interstate migration

Year ending 30 JuneNSW Vic. Qld SA WA TasNT ACT 
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
2008-20.8-1.919.4-4.25.00.71.40.3
2009-18.71.514.7-4.45.01.10.9-0.3
2010-9.53.36.2-2.72.10.7-0.70.4
2011-13.53.56.8-2.67.00.0-2.51.4
2012-18.12.411.8-3.28.6-1.9-0.71.1
2013-14.66.48.9-4.85.7-1.3-0.50.2
2014-6.89.76.3-3.9-1.7-0.4-2.4-0.8
2015-6.811.16.9-4.6-4.30.1-2.3-0.1
2016-11.517.612.0-7.2-10.00.8-2.00.4
2017-15.218.217.8-6.8-13.91.5-2.91.2
 

Victoria has returned to net interstate migration gains after earlier losses, overtaking Queensland in the last four years to be the largest recipient of net interstate migration. Western Australia has experienced a turn around from gains up until 2012–13 to increasingly larger losses. New South Wales and South Australia have continued to experience net interstate migration losses, not recording a net interstate migration gain in the last 38 and 26 years, respectively. 

State/territory and capital city/rest of state assumptions

Levels of assumed net interstate migration were derived by analysing trends over the past ten years and constraining them such that they sum to zero. The assumptions reflect the view that each state/territory will trend towards their short term average.

Three assumptions have been made about future net interstate migration levels:

  • large interstate flows: relatively large net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, corresponding to relatively large losses for other states and territories. For example, this equates to large net gains in Queensland and Victoria and correspondingly large net losses in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia;
  • medium interstate flows: medium net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and medium losses for others; and
  • small interstate flows: relatively small net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and small losses for others.
     

The medium series assumptions are based on NIM averages for the states and territories in the period 2008–2017. The large and small assumptions are based on minimum and maximum share of state values of observed arrivals and departures over the last ten years, with adjustments made based on the trend data, as well as ensuring that each sum of the state/territory NIM is zero.

It should be noted that for some states the large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate migration losses, therefore the small interstate flows assumption will yield greater population growth in such cases.

All assumptions are separated into arrivals and departures for each state/territory and capital city/rest of state (Greater Capital City Statistical Area). Rates for arrivals and departures for the states and territories are generated from movement data from recent Censuses to obtain age/sex levels. Further, 2011 and 2016 Census data are used to generate age/sex arrival and departure levels for each capital city/rest of state. As a result, all age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations sum to the net internal migration assumptions.

Assumed net interstate migration, from 2027

 Large interstate flows assumptionMedium interstate flows assumptionSmall interstate flows assumption
Capital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotalCapital cityRest of stateTotal
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
New South Wales
-23.9
2.9
-21.0
-20.2
6.7
-13.5 
-17.0
10.0
-7.0
Victoria
8.4
9.6
18.0
1.7
5.3
7.0
–3.8
1.8
-2.0
Queensland
9.0
11.0
20.0
5.0
6.1
11.0
2.7
3.3
6.0
South Australia
-6.2
-0.8
-7.0
-4.5
0.0
-4.5
–3.2
0.7
-2.5
Western Australia
-5.6
-4.4
–10.0
0.9
–0.4
0.5
5.0
2.0
7.0
Tasmania
1.2
0.3
1.5
0.5
–0.5
0.0
-0.1
-1.4
-1.5
Northern Territory
-1.3
-1.7
–3.0
0.0
–1.0
-1.0
1.4
-0.4
1.0
Australian Capital Territory
. .
. .
1.5
. .
. .
0.5
. .
. .
-1.0
. . not applicable

National

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expentancy at birth(b)Female life expenctancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)
High series1.9587.789.2275,000
Medium series1.8083.086.0225,000
Low series1.6583.086.0175,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

Australia's population at 30 June 2017 of 24.6 million is projected to:

  • increase by an annual average of between 1.4% to 1.8% until June 2027
  • grow by an annual average of between 0.9% and 1.4% per year over the entire projection period
  • reach between 28.3 and 29.3 million people by 2027, and between 37.4 and 49.2 million people by 2066
     

An assumption of zero net overseas migration has been included to demonstrate the trajectory of Australia's future population relying entirely on natural increase.

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Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). 

Natural increase

There were 307,800 births and 160,200 deaths during 2016-17, resulting in a natural increase of 147,600 people. 

  • The number of births is projected to increase to between 384,400 to 626,400 births per year by 2066. 
  • The number of deaths is projected to reach between 340,200 to 379,200 by 2066.
  • Natural increase is projected to be between 14,200 to 286,300 people in 2066.
     
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Net overseas migration

In all series, overseas migrant arrivals are assumed to exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 9.0 million to 13.5 million in total between 2027 and 2066. 

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Population by age

Of the changes projected to occur in Australia's population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates. In all series this trend is projected to continue.

Median age

The median age for Australia is projected to increase from 37.2 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.0 years in 2066. 

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decline from 19% in 2017 to between 16% and 18% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 66%  to between  61% and 62% in 2066
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23% in 2066
  • people aged 85 years and over will increase from 2% in 2017 to 3.6% and 4.4% in 2066

States and territories

The high and medium series both project population growth for all states and territories between 2017 and 2066. The low series projects growth for all states and territories except Tasmania, which would decline from 2028. New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state in all series, reaching over 9 million between 2025 and 2028. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population over the projection period, increasing by between 60% to 130%.

By 2027: 

  • New South Wales is projected to reach between 8.9 and 9.3 million people
  • Victoria's population is projected to reach between 7.5 and 7.9 million people
  • Queensland is projected to reach between 5.7 and 5.9 million people
  • growth in Western Australia will be slower, reaching between 2.8 and 3.0 million
  • South Australia's population is projected to be between 1.8 and 1.9 million
  • Tasmania's population is projected to increase to between 544,900 and 573,300
  • the Northern Territory's population is projected to reach between 260,200 and 293,400
  • the population of Australian Capital Territory is projected to reach between 479,200 and 510,000 people, exceeding Tasmania's population by the year 2040
     

Projected population, 2066

 High series ('000)Medium series ('000)Low series ('000)
New South Wales14,79613,08811,754
Victoria14,52512,03010,091
Queensland10,4698,7187,507
South Australia2,4372,2142,040
Western Australia4,9264,7604,493
Tasmania744581453
Northern Territory386439490
Australian Capital Territory939775612
Australia(a)49,22642,60837,444
a. Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.

Capital cities

Melbourne is projected to be the largest city in Australia by 2066 with a projected population between 8.6 million and 12.2 million, surpassing Sydney between 2031 and 2057. 

At 30 June 2017, 67% of Australians lived in capital cities. This proportion is projected to increase to between 69% and 70% by 2027. All capital cities are projected to grow more than their respective rest of state or territory.

  • Sydney is projected to increase from 65% of the state's population in 2017 to between 67% and 68% in 2027.
  • Melbourne is projected to increase from 77% of Victoria in 2017 to 79% in 2027.
  • Brisbane is projected to increase from 49% of Queensland's population to 51% in 2027, becoming the majority part of Queensland's population. 
  • Adelaide is projected to grow from 77% in 2017 to between between 78% and 79% in 2027.
  • Perth is projected to grow from 79% to between 80% and 81%.
  • Hobart is projected to increase its share of Tasmania's population, from 44% in 2017 to 46% in 2027.
  • Darwin is projected to increase its share of the territory’s population by more than any other capital city, increasing from 60% in 2017 to between 63% and 64% in 2027.

New South Wales

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.9787.789.289,100-21,000
Medium series1.8283.086.072,900-13,500
Low series1.6783.086.056,700-7,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

New South Wales' population of 7.9 million is projected to:

  • grow by between 0.7% and 1.4% per year, slightly lower than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
  • reach between 8.9 million and 9.4 million by 2027, and between 11.0 million and 15.6 million by 2066
     

Most of New South Wales growth is projected to occur in Greater Sydney. Sydney is projected to: 

  • increase from 65% of the state’s population in 2017 to 67-68% in 2027
  • have between 6.0 million and 6.4 million people by 2027
     

The rest of New South Wales is projected to have between 2.9 million and 3.0 million people by 2027.

Download
  1. Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
  2. Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows. 
     

The largest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because New South Wales experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

  • In all series, births continue to exceed the number of deaths for New South Wales. 
  • Some series project higher numbers of deaths than births outside of Greater Sydney.
     

The declining natural increase in the medium and low assumption series is due to the lower migration assumptions rather than the lower fertility rate assumption. This is because the fertility rate is applied to a smaller population, resulting in less births.

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Net overseas migration

  • In all series, net overseas migration is projected to decline the high recorded in 2017, returning net overseas migration to its long term average.
  • Greater Sydney is assumed to receive 86% of the state's net overseas migration.
     

Net interstate migration

In all series, the projected number of interstate departures exceeds interstate arrivals in New South Wales, resulting in a net interstate migration loss. 

Population by age

Median age

The median age is projected to increase:

  • for New South Wales from 37.5 years in 2017 to between 39.6 years and 43.1 years in 2066
  • for males by 2.3 to 5.6 years, to between 38.9 and 41.2 years
  • for females by 2.0 to 5.7 years, to between 40.4 and 44.1 years
     

The male population is projected to age faster than the female population under high life expectancy assumptions.

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 19% to between 16% and 18% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 61% and 62%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 16% in 2017 to between 21% and 23%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Victoria

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.8588.489.579,480-18,000
Medium series1.7183.786.265,0307,000
Low series1.5783.786.250,580-2,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

Victoria's population of 6.3 million is projected to:

  • increase by between 1.0% and 1.7% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
  • reach a population of between 10.1 million and 14.5 million by 2066
     

Most of Victoria's growth is projected to occur in Greater Melbourne. Melbourne is projected to: 

  • increase from 77% of the state's population in 2017 to 79% in 2027
  • have between 5.9 million and 6.2 million by 2027
     

Projected growth rates for the rest of Victoria are smaller, with the population projected to have between 1.6 and 1.7 million by 2027.

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Natural increase

  • In all three series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Victoria.
  • All series project higher number of births than deaths in Melbourne, and higher number of deaths than births outside of Melbourne. 
     
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Net overseas migration

  • In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 50,600 and 79,500 people added each year from 2027. 
  • Melbourne is assumed to receive around 92% of the state's net overseas migration.
     

Net interstate migration

  • In the high and medium series, interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain between 7,000 and 18,000 people per year from 2027. 
  • The low series assumes a net interstate migration loss of 2,000 people per year from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age for Victoria is projected to increase:

  • from 36.8 years in 2017 to between 39.5 and 43.1 years in 2066
  • for males by 2.9 to 6.2 years, to between 38.8 and 42.1 years
  • for females by 2.5 to 6.3 years, to between 40.2 and 44.0 years
     

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 18% to between 15% and 18% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 66% to 62%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 20% and 23%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages. 

Queensland

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series2.0387.389.145,65020,000
Medium series1.8882.785.937,35011,000
Low series1.7282.785.929,0506,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

Queensland's population of 4.9 million is projected to:

  • increase by between 0.8% and 1.5% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
  • reach a population of between 7.5 million and 10.5 million by 2066
     

More of the projected growth occurs in Brisbane than in the rest of the state. Brisbane is projected to: 

  • increase from 49% of the state's population in 2017 to 51% in 2027
  • have between 2.9 million and 3.0 million by 2027
     

The rest of Queensland is projected to grow from 2.5 million to between 2.8 million and 2.9 million in 2027.

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Natural increase

  • In all series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Queensland.
  • All series project higher number of births than deaths in Brisbane.
  • Steady numbers of births, and increasing deaths may result in natural decrease in the rest of Queensland from 2042.
     
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Net overseas migration

  • In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 29,100 to 45,700 people added each year from 2027. 
  • Brisbane is assumed to receive around 60% of the state's net overseas migration.
     

Net interstate migration

  • In all series, interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain between 6,000 and 20,000 people per year from 2027. 
  • The proportion of Queensland's net interstate migration gain received by Brisbane is projected to decrease from 68% in 2017 to 45% in 2066.
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age for Queensland is projected to increase: 

  • from 37.1 years in 2017, to between 39.1 and 43.0 years in 2066
  • for males by 1.7 to 5.4 years, to between 38.1 and 41.8 years
  • for females by 2.2 to 6.3 years, to between 40.1 to 44.2 years
     

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 20% to between 16% and 19% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 60% and 61%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 15% in 2017 to between 21% and 23%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

South Australia

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.9187.689.115,680-7,000
Medium series1.7682.985.912,830-4,500
Low series1.6182.985.99,980-2,500
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

South Australia's population of 1.7 million people is projected to:

  • increase by between 0.1% and 0.9% per year, a slower rate than that projected for all other states other than Tasmania
  • reach a population of between 1.8 million and 2.7 million people by 2066 
     

South Australia's growth is projected to be driven by growth in Adelaide. Adelaide is projected to increase from:

  • 77% of the state's population in 2017 to 80% by 2042 
  • 1.3 million people in 2017 to between 1.4 million and 1.5 million by 2027
     

The rest of South Australia is projected to have very low growth, with an increase from 389,500 people in 2017 to between 389,900 and 406,900 people in 2027. 

Download
  1. Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
  2. Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows. 
     

The largest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because South Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

Under the:

  • high series, natural increase is projected for South Australia for the whole period
  • low and medium series, deaths will exceed births in South Australia from 2035 (low) and 2047 (medium)
  • medium series, natural increase is projected for Adelaide over the whole period, natural decrease is projected for the rest of South Australia from 2026
     
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Net overseas migration

  • Net overseas migration is assumed to increase to 15,700 people per year under the high series and decline to 10,000 people per year under the low series. 
  • Adelaide is assumed to receive 92% of the state’s net overseas migration. 
     

Net interstate migration

  • In all series, interstate departures will exceed interstate arrivals in South Australia, resulting in a net interstate migration loss. 
  • This loss is projected to be between 2,500 to 7,000 people per year from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of South Australia is projected to increase: 

  • from 40.0 years in 2017 to between 41.6 and 45.2 years in 2066, remaining the second highest of all states, behind Tasmania
  • for males by 1.6 to 5.0 years to be between 40.5 and 43.9 years
  • for females by 1.6 to 5.3 years to be between 42.6 and 46.4 years
     

Age structure

The proportion of:

  • children aged 0–14 is projected to decrease from 18% to between 15% and 17% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease from 64% to between 59% and 60%
  • people aged 65 and over will increase from 18% in 2017 to between 24% and 26%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Western Australia

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.9887.789.436,580-10,000
Medium series1.8383.086.329,930500
Low series1.6883.086.323,2807,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

Western Australia's population of 2.6 million is projected to:

  • increase by between 0.7% and 1.7% per year
  • reach a population of between 3.6 million and 5.9 million by 2066
     

More of the projected growth occurs in Perth than in the rest of the state. Perth is projected to increase from: 

  • 79% of the state's population in 2017 to between 80% and 81% in 2027
  • 2.0 million people in 2017 to between 2.3 million and 2.4 million by 2027
     

The rest of Western Australia is projected to grow from 536,400 people in 2017 to between 588,200 and 538,100 in 2027. 

Download
  1. Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
  2. Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows. 
     

The largest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because Western Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

  • In all series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Western Australia.
  • All series project higher number of births than deaths in Perth.
  • Under low assumptions, steady numbers of births and increasing deaths result in natural decrease in the rest of Western Australia from 2052.
     
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Net overseas migration

  • In all series, net overseas migration for Western Australia is projected to increase from the low recorded in 2017 to its long term average. 
  • Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 23,3000 to 36,600 people in 2066. 
  • Perth is assumed to receive around 90% of the state's net overseas migration.
     

Net interstate migration

  • Under high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 10,000 people from 2027.
  • Under medium and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to gain between 500 to 7,000 people from 2027. 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of Western Australia is projected to increase: 

  • from 36.6 years in 2017 to be between 39.2 and 42.5 years in 2066
  • for males by 2.5 to 5.8 years to be between 38.5 and 41.8 years
  • for females by 2.7 to 6.1 years to be between 39.9 and 43.3 years
     

Age structure

The proportion of: 

  • children aged 0-14 years is projected to decrease from 20% to between 16% and 19% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 67% to between 61% and 62%
  • people aged 65 years and over will increase from 14% in 2017 to between 20% and 22%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Tasmania

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series2.1186.088.52,2001,500
Medium series1.9581.484.31,8000
Low series1.7981.484.31,400-1,500
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

Tasmania's population of 522,300 people is projected to:

  • increase to 744,500 and 580,500 respectively in 2066 under high and medium series
  • decline to 452,700 by 2066 under low assumptions
     

Hobart is projected to grow in each series from:

  • 44% of the state's population in 2017 to 46% in 2027
  • 229,100 people in 2017 to between 250,700 and 264,600 people in 2027
     

Population growth for the rest of Tasmania is smaller, with both medium and low assumptions projecting population decline.

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Natural increase

  • Under medium and low assumptions, the number of deaths will exceed births, leading to natural decrease for Tasmania. 
  • Under high assumptions, Hobart experiences natural increase but medium and low projections assume natural decrease from 2048 and 2034 respectively. 
  • In the rest of Tasmania, natural decrease is projected from between 2023 (low series) to 2032 (high series). 
     
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Net overseas migration

  • In the three selected series, net overseas migration is projected to decline from the high recorded in 2017 to its longer term average. 
  • Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 1,400 to 2,200 people per year from 2027. 
  • Hobart is assumed to receive around 60% of the state's net overseas migration.
     

Net interstate migration

  • Under high and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain and loss of 1,500 people respectively from 2027.
  • Under medium assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to be zero (arrivals equal departures). 
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of Tasmania is projected to increase:

  • from 42.2 years in 2017 to between 44.7 and 49.6 years in 2066, remaining the highest of all states or territories
  • for males by 2.6 to 7.2 years to be between 43.6 and 48.2 years
  • for females by 2.6 to 7.7 years to be between 45.9 and 51.0 years
     

Age structure

The proportion of:

  • children aged 0–14 is projected to decrease from 18% to between 17% to 14% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease from 63% to between 57% and 55%
  • people aged 65 and over will increase from 19% in 2017 to between 27% and 30%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Northern Territory

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series2.1481.982.92,480-3,000
Medium series1.9877.680.42,030-1,000
Low series1.8177.680.41,5801,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

The Northern Territory's population of 247,700 people is projected to:

  • increase between 0.2% and 1.9% per year
  • reach a population between 275,100 and 622,000 by 2066 
     

Most of the Northern Territory's growth is projected to occur in Darwin. Darwin is projected to increase from:

  • 60% of the territory's population in 2017 to between 63% and 64% in 2027
  • 148,900 people in 2017 to between 164,500 and 187,000 by 2027 
     

Population growth for the rest of the Northern Territory is smaller, with some series projecting population decline.

Download

The largest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because the Northern Territory experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

  • In the three selected series, the number of births will continue to exceed deaths, resulting in natural increase for the Northern Territory. 
  • Increasing numbers of births in Darwin leads natural increase to grow in all series.
  • In the rest of the Northern Territory, the level of natural increase declines in all three series.
     
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Net overseas migration

  • In all series, overseas arrivals will exceed departures resulting in positive net overseas migration from 2,500 to 1,600 people per year. 
  • Darwin is assumed to receive 76% of the territory's net overseas migration. 
     

Net interstate migration

  • Under medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,000 to 3,000 people from 2027. 
  • Under low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to gain 1,000 people from 2027.
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of the Northern Territory is projected to increase from:

  • 32.6 years in 2017 to between 33.9 and 37.1 years in 2066, remaining the lowest of all states and territories
  • for males by 2.9 to 4.8 years to be between 34.2 and 37.4 years
  • for females by 2.3 to 4.2 years to be between 33.5 and 36.7 years 
     

Age structure

The proportion of 

  • children aged 0–14 is projected to remain the same under high assumptions at 22%, but decrease under medium and low assumptions to be between 19% and 21% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease from 71% in 2017 to between 67% and 68% 
  • people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 7.2% in 2017 to between 11% and 13%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Australian Capital Territory

Assumptions

 Total fertility rate(a)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(a)Net interstate migration(a)
High series1.7988.890.03,8501,500
Medium series1.6584.086.63,150500
Low series1.5184.086.62,450-1,000
a. From 2027.
b. From 2066.
 

Population size and change

The Australian Capital Territory’s population of 412,000 people is projected to:

  • increase between 0.8% and 1.7% per year 
  • reach between 479,200 and 510,000 by 2066
     
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Natural increase

In the three selected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Australian Capital Territory. 

Download

Net overseas migration

  • The three selected series project a decline in net overseas migration from the recent high in 2017, returning to longer term averages.
  • Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration gain of between 2,500 and 3,900 people. 
     

Net interstate migration

  • Under medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain of 500 to 1,500 people per year from 2027. 
  • Under low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,000 people per year from 2027.
     

Population by age

Median age

The median age of the population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase from:

  • 35.0 years in 2017 to between 36.9 and 40.2 years in 2066
  • for males by 1.9 to 4.9 years to be between 36.3 and 39.3 years
  • for females by 2.5 to 5.5 years to be between 37.6 and 41.2 years
     

Age structure

The proportion of:

  • children aged 0–14 is projected to decrease from 19.0% in 2017 to between 16% and 19% in 2066
  • working age population aged 15–65 is projected to decrease from 69% to between 64% and 65%
  • people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 13% in 2017 to between 17% and 20%
     
Download
  1. The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Data downloads - time series spreadsheets

I-note

Time series spreadsheets are only provided for the high, medium and low series. 

Table A1. Population projections, by age and sex, New South Wales - high series

Table A2. Population projections, by age and sex, Victoria - high series

Table A3. Population projections, by age and sex, Queensland - high series

Table A4. Population projections, by age and sex, South Australia - high series

Table A5. Population projections, by age and sex, Western Australia - high series

Table A6. Population projections, by age and sex, Tasmania - high series

Table A7. Population projections, by age and sex, Northern Territory - high series

Table A8. Population projections, by age and sex, Australian Capital Territory - high series

Table A9. Population projections, by age and sex, Australia - high series

Table B1. Population projections, by age and sex, New South Wales - medium series

Table B2. Population projections, by age and sex, Victoria - medium series

Table B3. Population projections, by age and sex, Queensland - medium series

Table B4. Population projections, by age and sex, South Australia - medium series

Table B5. Population projections, by age and sex, Western Australia - medium series

Table B6. Population projections, by age and sex, Tasmania - medium series

Table B7. Population projections, by age and sex, Northern Territory - medium series

Table B8. Population projections, by age and sex, Australian Capital Territory - medium series

Table B9. Population projections, by age and sex, Australia - medium series

Table C1. Population projections, by age and sex, New South Wales - low series

Table C2. Population projections, by age and sex, Victoria - low series

Table C3. Population projections, by age and sex, Queensland - low series

Table C4. Population projections, by age and sex, South Australia - low series

Table C5. Population projections, by age and sex, Western Australia - low series

Table C6. Population projections, by age and sex, Tasmania - low series

Table C7. Population projections, by age and sex, Northern Territory - low series

Table C8. Population projections, by age and sex, Australian Capital Territory - low series

Table C9. Population projections, by age and sex, Australia - low series

All data cubes

Data downloads - data cubes

Projected population, components of change and summary statistics - Australia, state/territory, greater capital city and rest of state, 2017 (base) to 2066

Projection assumptions (detailed)

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3222.0.