In early 2020 the ABS suspended trend series, in addition to adopting forward factors to produce seasonally adjusted series. The trend estimate indicates the medium to long direction of a time series. To estimate the trend, the effect of significant events like disruptions associated with COVID-19 are assigned to either the trend or irregular components of a time series. The rationale for suspending trend series was that it was unknown whether the impacts from COVID-19 would be short or medium to long-term, and therefore there was high probability of needing to significantly revise initial assessments of the impacts of COVID-19 on the trend.
The trend series for New Capital Expenditure has been reviewed and been reinstated.
Over the last two years, the impacts of COVID-19 on New Capital Series have not caused multiple abrupt changes in the series level in short succession, and so it is appropriate to describe a trend level through the past two years. As a result, New Capital Expenditure will also be publishing a trend over the previous two years for relevant series.