Quarterly statistics about actual and expected private new capex investment spend on buildings and equipment by industry
| Sep Qtr 20 | Jun Qtr 20 to Sep Qtr 20 | Sep Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $m | % change | % change | ||
| Seasonally adjusted(a) | ||||
| Total new capital expenditure | 25 850 | -3.0 | -13.8 | |
| Buildings and structures | 13 760 | -3.7 | -15.0 | |
| Equipment, plant and machinery | 12 090 | -2.2 | -12.3 | |
a. In volume terms
In 2018 the scope of the Survey of Private New Capital Expenditure was expanded to include the Education and Training (ANZSIC Division P) and Health Care and Social Assistance (ANZSIC Division Q) industries. Estimates for these industries were published separately from September quarter 2017 in original (i.e. not seasonally adjusted) current price terms and were not included in the total estimates of Private New Capital Expenditure.
Commencing with the December 2020 publication, seasonally adjusted chain volume estimates will be released for these industries (Division P and Q). These estimates will also be included in the estimates of Total Private New Capital Expenditure.
Historical estimates for these industries (i.e. estimates prior to September 2017) will be produced by modelling the data. The model will assume that Education and Health contribute a constant proportion to the relevant totals over time.
Currently Total Private New Capital Expenditure estimates are produced for three broad industry groups; Mining, Manufacturing and Other Selected Industries. Commencing with the December 2020 publication, the broad industry groups will be changed to Mining and Non-Mining; that is, Manufacturing and Other Selected Industries will be amalgamated.
Historical estimates will also be available on this new basis.
If you have any queries on these changes please contact the ABS client.services@abs.gov.au.
New Capital Expenditure uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method, meaning that seasonal factors are re-estimated each time a new data point becomes available. If not appropriately accounted for, unusual real-world events such as COVID-19 can distort estimates calculated using this method.
From September quarter 2020 for selected series, seasonal factors will be calculated using data up to and including March quarter 2020, then projected from June quarter 2020 onwards. This approach, known as the forward factor method, ensures that the seasonal factors are not distorted for industries affected by COVID-19 impacts. Switching to the forward factor method may result in revisions in seasonal data for future quarters when the concurrent seasonal adjustment method is reinstated.
The trend series attempts to measure underlying behaviour in business activity. In the short term, this measurement will be significantly affected by changes to regular patterns in spending that will occur during this time, as certain businesses are restricted from trading for example. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this irregular event, they would likely provide a misleading view of underlying business activity.
It may be some time before the underlying trend in business activity can be accurately estimated. The New Capital Expenditure trend series have therefore been suspended and will be reinstated when more certainty emerges in the underlying trend in business activity.
Each September quarter, the reference and base year for chain volume estimates for the Survey of Private New Capital Expenditure are updated. A new base year, 2018-19, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in minor revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2018-19. Additivity is preserved in the quarters of the reference year and subsequent quarters. Re-referencing affects the level of but not the movements in chain volume estimates.
The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year.
The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:
| Estimate Based on data reported at: | COMPOSITION OF ESTIMATE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data on long-term expected expenditure | Data on Short-term expected expenditure | Data on actual expenditure | ||
| 1. | Jan-Feb, 5-6 months before period begins | 12 months | Nil | Nil |
| 2. | Apr-May, 2-3 months before period begins | 12 months | Nil | Nil |
| 3. | Jul-Aug, at beginning of period | 6 months | 6 months | Nil |
| 4. | Oct-Nov, 3-4 months into period | 6 months | 3 months | 3 months |
| 5. | Jan-Feb, 6-7 months into period | Nil | 6 months | 6 months |
| 6. | Apr-May, 9-10 months into period | Nil | 3 months | 9 months |
| 7. | Jul-Aug, at end of period | Nil | Nil | 12 months |
| Jun Qtr 20 to Sep Qtr 20 | Sep Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 20 | |
|---|---|---|
| % change | % change | |
| Mining | -3.1 | -2.8 |
| Manufacturing | -1.0 | -12.9 |
| Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste | 4.6 | -11.6 |
| Construction | -16.8 | -13.5 |
| Wholesale Trade | 10.6 | 5.8 |
| Retail Trade | 4.6 | 1.0 |
| Transport, Postal and Warehousing | -19.1 | -34.9 |
| Information Media and Telecommunications | -15.0 | -9.8 |
| Financial and Insurance Services | 3.7 | -14.3 |
| Rental, Hiring and Real Estate | -1.5 | -33.4 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 0.0 | 28.5 |
| Other Selected Services | 20.2 | -30.1 |
| Jun Qtr 20 to Sep Qtr 20 | Sep Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 20 | |
|---|---|---|
| % change | % change | |
| Mining | -4.1 | -1.7 |
| Manufacturing | -0.7 | -9.7 |
| Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste | 3.4 | -14.7 |
| Construction | 14.5 | -31.5 |
| Wholesale Trade | 1.9 | 39.7 |
| Retail Trade | 6.9 | 1.6 |
| Transport, Postal and Warehousing | -13.2 | -39.1 |
| Information Media and Telecommunications | -15.7 | -6.5 |
| Financial and Insurance Services | 16.0 | -18.2 |
| Rental, Hiring and Real Estate | -1.5 | -31.0 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | -15.6 | 45.1 |
| Other Selected Services | 5.9 | -48.4 |
| Jun Qtr 20 to Sep Qtr 20 | Sep Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 20 | |
|---|---|---|
| % change | % change | |
| Mining | -0.4 | -5.1 |
| Manufacturing | -1.1 | -14.0 |
| Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste | 11.7 | 12.5 |
| Construction | -17.9 | -12.3 |
| Wholesale Trade | 13.3 | -1.0 |
| Retail Trade | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Transport, Postal and Warehousing | -24.0 | -30.2 |
| Information Media and Telecommunications | -12.0 | -19.5 |
| Financial and Insurance Services | 0.6 | -13.0 |
| Rental, Hiring and Real Estate | -1.6 | -38.7 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 2.9 | 26.3 |
| Other Selected Services | 27.5 | -18.0 |
| Jun Qtr 20 to Sep Qtr 20 | Sep Qtr 19 to Sep Qtr 20 | |
|---|---|---|
| % change | % change | |
| New South Wales | -3.7 | -21.0 |
| Victoria | -7.7 | -23.7 |
| Queensland | -0.7 | -13.7 |
| South Australia | -3.7 | -8.5 |
| Western Australia | -1.4 | 4.8 |
| Tasmania | -3.4 | -4.2 |
| Northern Territory | -2.3 | -26.7 |
| Australian Capital Territory | -7.0 | -3.1 |
This release previously used catalogue number 5625.0.
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