Australian Agriculture: Livestock methodology

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is modernising the way official agricultural statistics are produced to better support Australian agriculture. These changes were outlined in early 2023 in Modernising ABS Agriculture Statistics which explained why the ABS is modernising its Agriculture Statistics Program and the guiding principles being followed.

A key part of the modernisation has been the development of partnerships with industry and government to identify new data sources and develop new statistical methods. This has reduced respondent burden on farmers, and created greater consistency between existing data sources which helps to build trust in the statistics.

This publication contains statistics on the value of livestock disposals, value of wool sold, and milk produced. The publication also includes experimental estimates on beef and dairy cattle numbers on holding at 30 June. The experimental estimate of the number of cattle in Australia provides a more complete estimate of total cattle in Australia compared with past survey estimates which did not include cattle on smaller farms.

A Red Meat Statistics Working Group (RMWG) comprised of industry and government experts has supported the development of the experimental estimates of cattle numbers. The ABS is continuing to work with the RMWG to further refine the estimate of the number of cattle in Australia as it gains access to additional data sources over the next 18 months. 

A summary of the key data source used to produce livestock statistics contained in this publication are presented below.

Value of livestock disposals refers to the value of livestock exported and slaughtered and poultry slaughtered.

Value of livestock products refers to the value of milk and wool sold.

Local value is also known as farm-gate value and is the value of the commodity at the place of production.

Cattle herd numbers refer to the estimated number of beef and dairy cattle in Australia for the year ending 30 June.

Sheep flock numbers refer to the estimated number of sheep and lamb in Australia for the year ending 30 June, unless otherwise specified.

The local value of livestock disposals data are derived from the ABS' quarterly Livestock Slaughtered collection. The scope of this collection is all Australian commercial slaughtering establishments and abattoirs. Some on-farm and small producers are excluded from the collection, although the statistics represent a high level of coverage. The data presented in this publication relate to livestock disposals in the year ending 30 June.

The value of milk produced is sourced from Dairy Australia. These data are available at the national, state and territory levels. Value data are based on local value of milk produced. The data presented in this publication relate to the year ending 30 June.

The value of wool sold is based on levy information reported through the DAFF Wool Levy Payer register. These data are available at the national, state and territory levels. Wool that is produced in Australia and sold by the producer, used in the production of other goods, or that is exported will attract a levy or charge. The producer, who is the person who owns the wool immediately after it is removed from the sheep or lamb, is liable to pay the wool levy or charge. Data are based on the state in which wool has been produced and do not necessarily reflect the total production of wool in that state. The value of wool sold is based on local value.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' Business Register (ABSBR) was used to determine if businesses were in scope of the ABS' quarterly Livestock Slaughtered survey, the Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced surveys, and historical Agricultural Censuses and surveys. The ABSBR is based on the Australian Business Register (ABR). Businesses and organisations are included on the ABR when they register with the Australian Taxation Office for an Australian Business Number (ABN).

ABR data is supplied to the ABS by the ABR Registrar under A New Tax System (Australian Business Number) Act 1999 which requires that such data be only used for the purpose of carrying out functions of the ABS. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the data for statistical purposes and is not related to the ability of the data to support the ABR’s core operational requirements.

Legislative requirements to ensure privacy and secrecy of this data have been followed. Results have been released in accordance with the Census and Statistics Act 1905 and the Census and Statistics Determination 2018.

Modelled cattle and sheep estimates show animals on holding at 30 June, covering all cattle and sheep produced for commercial gain.

This new scope differs to historical ABS survey-based herd estimates where an Estimated Value of Agriculture Output (EVAO) threshold was used as a scoping measure for agricultural businesses selected to participate in ABS agricultural surveys. Since 2015-16 this value has been set at $40,000 and above to reduce reporting burden on micro-sized producers. For further information see Agricultural Commodities, Australia methodology.

Statistics for the gross value of livestock slaughtered have been compiled from quarterly returns supplied by commercial slaughtering establishments responding to the ABS' quarterly Livestock Slaughtered collection. For further information on this collection see Livestock Products, Australia methodology. Data from ABS Merchandise trade are used to compile the value of livestock live exports, see International Trade in Goods, methodology

Administrative data is sourced directly from several industry groups:

• Data for the local value of wool sold are sourced from Wool Levy Payer register. These data are collected on a unit record level basis, processed and aggregated to a state level.
• Data on the local value of milk production is sourced from Dairy Australia.

The beef cattle herd is calculated using a similar approach to that of the ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP), taking closing stock from the previous period, adding population inflows (using non-ABS data to estimate new calves), subtracting population exits (ABS data), to arrive at closing stock in the current period.

The population of calves, female cattle and other (male) cattle, form opening and closing stocks at the beginning and end of the financial year. These stocks and flows are represented in Figure 1.

Beef cattle herd model assumptions

The following assumptions have been used in the beef cattle herd model:

• Half of calves born alive are female and half are male
• Proportion of adult female cattle live exported = 0.3
• Proportion of adult male cattle live exported = 0.7

Beef production cattle account for a large percentage of the live cattle export (breeding cattle make up a much smaller number). Live export markets are typically geared towards steers over heifers as heifers and cows have more value on farm as a mechanism to breed further calves.

Beef herd model – backcast estimates

The method for calculating the beef cattle herd from 2022-23 onwards involved adjusting historical survey-based estimates to be consistent with the new modelling approach so that users can understand how the modelled estimates relate to previously published herd estimates.

The scope of the ABS’ agricultural surveys was changed in 2015-16 from an EVAO of $5,000 and above to $40,000 and above. This was estimated to result in a measurable difference in the beef cattle herd size in 2015-16. The effective scope of modelled beef herd estimates in this statistical publication is 'all beef cattle grown for the purpose of deriving a commercial gain'. 

The latest beef cattle herd model estimates were re-calculated from 2019 onwards to account for:

1. Discrepancies between on-holding populations and total exits from the herd
2. EVAO scope differences.

The main element of this adjustment was to re-calculate the calf population by aligning it to a level that would sustain overall cattle exits over the long term. This was achieved by combining the historical ABS agricultural survey female cattle estimates with data from ABARES on calves marked (calving rates) and mating rates.

As a result of these two adjustments the beef cattle population increased by approximately 4.3 million at 30 June 2019. The graph below and its underlying table shows previously published cattle estimates and the modelled experimental estimates from 2019 through to 2022, for the purpose of demonstrating the impact of the modelling approach compared with previously published estimates.

Dairy herd modelled estimates

Dairy cattle estimates are derived using data supplied by Dairy Australia on the number of ‘cows in milk and dry’ by state and territories. Cows in milk and dry form a large and consistent proportion of the total dairy cattle herd. The remaining dairy herd population has been estimated using proportions from previously published ABS’ dairy cattle estimates.

Estimates for the dairy herd at 30 June are only available at the total dairy herd level for each state and territory. The method for estimating the total dairy herd will be further refined, with sub-populations being separately published when the revised method is finalised.

Historical estimates of the dairy herd are unchanged from those previously published.

The sheep flock is calculated using a similar approach to that of the ABS Herd model and ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) from 2022-23 onwards. This approach takes the closing stock from the previous period, adds the population inflows (using ABS Agricultural Commodity survey data, combined with non-ABS data to estimate marked lambs), and subtracts population exits (ABS data), to arrive at a closing stock in the current period.

The population of sheep 1 year and over and marked lambs at the 30th of June form the opening and closing stocks at the beginning and the end of the financial year. These stocks and flows are represented in Figure 2. 

A number of limitations in existing source data have implications for assumptions within the sheep flock model. The ABS aims to refine these assumptions (in partnership with RMWG) as additional data sources can be secured.  The following assumptions are used in the sheep flock model:

• All exported animals are adult sheep
• All interstate transfers are adult sheep
• All ewes mated to Merino Rams to produce Merino marked lambs through the year are Merino
• The number of sheep producers is consistent with the historical trend
• Sheep production from Mixed Sheep-Grain farming is consistent with historical trends
• Contribution of “All other sheep 1 year and over” within the total flock is consistent with historical trends
• All wool produced during the year is sold at auction and not stored on farm

The method for calculating the sheep flock in 2022-23 and 2023-24 also involved adjusting historical survey-based estimates to be consistent with the new modelling approach so that users can understand how the modelled estimates relate to previously published flock estimates.

The scope of the ABS’ agricultural surveys was changed in 2015-16 from an EVAO of $5,000 and above to $40,000 and above. This was estimated to result in a measurable difference in the sheep flock size in 2015-16. The sheep flock model estimates were re-calculated from 2015 onwards to account for EVAO scope differences. The effective scope of modelled sheep flock estimates in this statistical publication is 'all sheep grown for the purpose of deriving a commercial gain'. 

As a result of this adjustment the sheep population increased by approximately 2.6 million at 30 June 2016. The graph below and its underlying table shows previously published cattle estimates and the modelled experimental estimates from 2015 through to 2022, for the purpose of demonstrating the impact of the modelling approach compared with previously published estimates.

Statistics for livestock and poultry slaughtering, meat produced, and value of livestock and poultry slaughtered have been compiled from quarterly returns supplied by all in-scope commercial slaughtering establishments and abattoirs. Many on-farm and small producers are excluded from the collection; however, the statistics represent a high level of coverage.

Wool data is collected directly from levies data and represents a high level of coverage.

Milk value is sourced from Dairy Australia and is considered fit for purpose.

The herd and flock estimates are modelled on an experimental basis and some caution should be used when using the numbers. The ABS has engaged with external data providers and state agricultural departments to improve the validity of the estimates and the estimates are considered fit for most uses.

Some detailed estimates in this publication may have been confidentialised to avoid potential identification of agricultural holdings in accordance with the Census and Statistics Act 1905 and the Census and Statistics Determination 2018.

Where detailed estimates have been suppressed for reasons of confidentiality, they have been included in relevant aggregated totals. Wool levy payer data identifies some insignificant values of wool sales in the Northern Territory. These values have been reallocated to Queensland, maintaining national totals.

Reported totals may differ from the sum of components due to rounding.

Livestock population estimates are modelled on an experimental basis and caution should be used when using the numbers. Currently, data is available at national, state and territories levels. Sub-state data outputs are planned for future publications as more detailed administrative data sources become available and methods are further refined to support their production.

Revisions are a change in the value of a published value and may arise due to a variety of reasons. 

Revisions may be applied to livestock estimates due to:

• Revisions to source data
• Refinements to decisions made around the treatment of data anomalies in the series
• Implementation of methodological and process improvements (where this is the case, both the method and revision impacts will be clearly explained).

The methods and data sources used to produce experimental herd and flock estimates will be subject to ongoing review to improve the accuracy and timeliness of outputs. This process is being conducted in partnership with government (national and state) and industry experts through the RMWG.

The local value of livestock disposals and livestock products data has been produced using the same methods as previously used and are directly comparable with local value data appearing in the now discontinued Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced, Australia publication.

The local value of wool will differ slightly from previous data published in the discontinued Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced, Australia publication. Care should be used comparing the totals, which are now based on data collected at the time of sale, rather than at the time of receival by dealers and brokers. This can result in some differences, particularly when comparing totals at a state level (as the state in which a levy is paid can differ from where the wool would be received by a dealer or broker). 

There are a number of conceptual differences between historical ABS survey-based livestock population estimates and the experimental livestock population estimates appearing in this publication. These include:

• The scope of the survey-based estimates was agricultural businesses with an estimated value of agricultural output (EVAO) of $40,000 or more. Non-survey data sources do not have this restriction and measure the full extent of Australian agriculture.

Specific to the experimental cattle herd estimate: 

• Calf numbers have been adjusted to better reflect exits from the cattle herd. As a result, both calf and total cattle estimates in previously published series will not match those in this publication.

National, state and territory statistics for the local value of livestock disposals, livestock products and livestock herd and flock estimates are available in this publication. Sub-state estimates are not available.

Wool levy payer data identifies some insignificant values of wool sales in the Northern Territory. These values have been reallocated to Queensland, maintaining national totals.

Other ABS publications containing agricultural data are listed on the ABS’ Agricultural Statistics page. The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice on the website which details products to be released in the week ahead.

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