Use Net Overseas Migration statistics to understand overseas migration, not Overseas Arrivals and Departures

An explanation of why Overseas Arrivals and Departures data is not a direct measure of overseas migration

Released

18/06/2026

Source

National, state and territory population, December 2025

Overseas Migration, 2024-25 financial year

Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, April 2026

Released

18/06/2026 11:30am AEST

Our advice

When discussing migration, it’s important to use the right statistics. While the ABS releases international migration and travel statistics in separate releases – in Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) – they are not interchangeable. They are different and serve very different purposes.

The ABS advises that you should only use migration statistics for measuring migration. This is not a mere statistical technicality – using OAD data as a migration measure will provide an inaccurate and misleading indication of migration levels.

The latest Net Overseas Migration data, for December quarter 2025, shows that annual net overseas migration was 300,960 people since December quarter 2024. Using net permanent and long-term (PLT) movements from OAD as a proxy for net overseas migration would overestimate migration by 60%, or an extra 179,570 people. Over time, net PLT overstates migration to a varying extent, meaning that it does not provide a reliable standalone signal for broad changes in the rate of migration.

This article provides a comparison of NOM and OAD and explains why net permanent and long-term movements should not be used as a proxy for migration statistics. It provides clear reasons for this, using examples, to support informed use of these important statistics.

NOM and OAD are different and measure different things

Net Overseas Migration measures population change from overseas migration	Overseas Arrivals and Departures measures cross-border travel activity
Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is the official measure of migration. It is based on the concept of usual residence in the country, not just whether someone has crossed the border into or out of Australia. Under the “12/16‑month rule”, there are two groups of migrants who contribute to change in the population: “Migrant Arrivals”, who add to the population, are people who were living outside Australia who arrive here and spend at least 12 months in Australia in the 16 months following their arrival. “Migrant Departures”, who reduce the population, are people who were living here who depart Australia and spend at least 12 months away in the 16 months following their departure. This is measured based on where people were actually living before and after travelling. People who do not change their country of usual residence do not influence NOM. This aligns with international best practice and ensures NOM reflects real changes in Australia’s usually resident population.	Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) data is a transactional count of border crossings, not population change. Each arrival or departure is counted as a movement when the border is crossed millions of times every year, which means: The same person may be counted multiple times if they travel frequently. Travellers may be categorised differently in different movements. Duration cannot be measured accurately for all trips at the time of travel. OAD data includes some information on short-term and long-term movements, making it valuable for understanding: travel trends, including for tourism seasonal patterns in travel the volume and characteristics of short‑term movements. However, OAD does not measure migration and is not designed to be a proxy for migration.

Net Overseas Migration measures population change from overseas migration

Overseas Arrivals and Departures measures cross-border travel activity

Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is the official measure of migration.

It is based on the concept of usual residence in the country, not just whether someone has crossed the border into or out of Australia.

Under the “12/16‑month rule”, there are two groups of migrants who contribute to change in the population:

“Migrant Arrivals”, who add to the population, are people who were living outside Australia who arrive here and spend at least 12 months in Australia in the 16 months following their arrival.
“Migrant Departures”, who reduce the population, are people who were living here who depart Australia and spend at least 12 months away in the 16 months following their departure.

This is measured based on where people were actually living before and after travelling. People who do not change their country of usual residence do not influence NOM.

This aligns with international best practice and ensures NOM reflects real changes in Australia’s usually resident population.

Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) data is a transactional count of border crossings, not population change.

Each arrival or departure is counted as a movement when the border is crossed millions of times every year, which means:

The same person may be counted multiple times if they travel frequently.
Travellers may be categorised differently in different movements.
Duration cannot be measured accurately for all trips at the time of travel.

OAD data includes some information on short-term and long-term movements, making it valuable for understanding:

travel trends, including for tourism
seasonal patterns in travel
the volume and characteristics of short‑term movements.

However, OAD does not measure migration and is not designed to be a proxy for migration.

Net permanent and long-term arrivals and departures is not NOM

Permanent and long-term (PLT) overseas travel movements refer to those by people who have a length of stay (intended, actual or imputed) in or out of Australia of 12 months or longer when they cross the border into or out of Australia.

The difference between PLT arrivals and departures is sometimes assumed to be similar enough to Net Overseas Migration (NOM) data that it can provide a reliable, early indication of migration. This is not consistent with ABS advice, given the two statistics measure different things and have different purposes.

There are three key reasons why PLT is not suitable as a proxy for migration.

Reason 1 – PLT data includes people even when they are not migrating

OAD data classifies movements as PLT based on the best estimate of their duration of stay available at the time of travel. This includes a traveller’s self-declared intended duration of stay, which may not match how long the traveller ends up staying in Australia. For example, a visitor who declares an intended stay of 12 months at the border is counted as a PLT movement, even if they leave after a much shorter stay and never migrate to Australia. Further to this, OAD data doesn’t check what the traveller did before their trip or does after their trip.

Let’s look at an example:

Example 1

An Australian citizen who has lived in the UK for 2 years travels to Australia for a wedding for 2 weeks:

On their passenger card, they tick the box to say they are an Australian resident returning to Australia.
Because they ticked resident on their passenger card, the duration of their trip in the OAD data is counted as the time they spent overseas – 2 years.

This adds one PLT arrival to the OAD data even though they return to the UK after the wedding and have not migrated back to Australia.

Reason 2 – PLT data includes people who have already migrated to Australia

A person cannot migrate to Australia if they already live here. Migration occurs when a person changes their country of usual residence from one country to another.

OAD data is a count of border crossings, not migration. When identifying travellers as PLT, OAD only considers the duration of the current trip – it does not take into account how long the traveller had been in or out of Australia before that trip started or after it ended.

This means that when OAD is classifying a cross-border movement as PLT, it cannot account for whether someone has changed their country of usual residence. This can result in counting the same person multiple times.

Let’s look at another example:

Example 2

An international student studying in Australia for 3 years, who makes return trips to their home country to visit family every year while living here:

OAD classifies the student as a visitor, as they are on a temporary visa.
When they first arrive, they state their duration of stay on their passenger card as 3 years. This counts as 1 PLT arrival in the OAD data.
After 10 months of study in Australia, they head home to visit family for a month. This is counted as a short-term departure in the OAD data because it had been less than 12 months since their previous arrival.
When they return after visiting family for a month, they have 2 years left of their university course. The student declares a 2 year stay on their passenger card. This counts as 1 PLT arrival in OAD.
With this pattern continuing each year, by the end of their course when they move back home, they have been counted as 3 PLT arrivals and 0 PLT departures.

PLT has therefore counted the student once when they initially migrated here but has also counted them twice when they were already living here.

Example 2 shows us that OAD can’t account for the country of residence status of a traveller before including them in the PLT figures, thus counting the same person multiple times.

Graph 1 shows the combined effect of examples like this. It highlights how many people who are already resident in Australia are counted as PLT arrivals in OAD data and also how many people are included in PLT arrivals but actually stay in Australia for less than 12 months.

Graph 1: Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals by actual NOM status - rolling annual totals
	Total PLT arrivals	Migrant arrival	Short-term visits (less than 12 months)	Already migrated to Aus on prior arrival
Dec 2017	778,000	261,000	190,000	324,000
Mar 2018	797,000	261,000	193,000	339,000
Jun 2018	809,000	264,000	191,000	350,000
Sep 2018	823,000	270,000	191,000	358,000
Dec 2018	833,000	273,000	192,000	363,000
Mar 2019	846,000	275,000	193,000	374,000
Jun 2019	851,000	274,000	194,000	378,000
Sep 2019	847,000	268,000	197,000	377,000
Dec 2019	844,000	268,000	192,000	379,000
Mar 2020	808,000	260,000	180,000	363,000
Jun 2020	645,000	212,000	140,000	289,000
Sep 2020	440,000	149,000	92,000	197,000
Dec 2020	289,000	114,000	46,000	128,000
Mar 2021	83,000	69,000	11,000	4,000
Jun 2021	121,000	96,000	19,000	5,000
Sep 2021	142,000	114,000	22,000	6,000
Dec 2021	218,000	164,000	47,000	8,000
Mar 2022	356,000	242,000	83,000	32,000
Jun 2022	489,000	287,000	119,000	83,000
Sep 2022	678,000	363,000	160,000	154,000
Dec 2022	790,000	381,000	189,000	217,000
Mar 2023	944,000	402,000	204,000	334,000
Jun 2023	1,004,000	417,000	205,000	377,000
Sep 2023	1,066,000	430,000	218,000	413,000
Dec 2023	1,091,000	420,000	219,000	446,000
Mar 2024	1,128,000	401,000	229,000	492,000
Jun 2024	1,110,000	374,000	226,000	505,000
Sep 2024	1,108,000	348,000	227,000	527,000
Dec 2024	1,109,000	341,000	227,000	535,000

Graph 1: Permanent and long-term (PLT) arrivals by actual NOM status - rolling annual totals

["","Total PLT arrivals","Migrant arrival","Short-term visits (less than 12 months)","Already migrated to Aus on prior arrival"]

[["Dec 2017","Mar 2018","Jun 2018","Sep 2018","Dec 2018","Mar 2019","Jun 2019","Sep 2019","Dec 2019","Mar 2020","Jun 2020","Sep 2020","Dec 2020","Mar 2021","Jun 2021","Sep 2021","Dec 2021","Mar 2022","Jun 2022","Sep 2022","Dec 2022","Mar 2023","Jun 2023","Sep 2023","Dec 2023","Mar 2024","Jun 2024","Sep 2024","Dec 2024"],[[778000],[797000],[809000],[823000],[833000],[846000],[851000],[847000],[844000],[808000],[645000],[440000],[289000],[83000],[121000],[142000],[218000],[356000],[489000],[678000],[790000],[944000],[1004000],[1066000],[1091000],[1128000],[1110000],[1108000],[1109000]],[[261000],[261000],[264000],[270000],[273000],[275000],[274000],[268000],[268000],[260000],[212000],[149000],[114000],[69000],[96000],[114000],[164000],[242000],[287000],[363000],[381000],[402000],[417000],[430000],[420000],[401000],[374000],[348000],[341000]],[[190000],[193000],[191000],[191000],[192000],[193000],[194000],[197000],[192000],[180000],[140000],[92000],[46000],[11000],[19000],[22000],[47000],[83000],[119000],[160000],[189000],[204000],[205000],[218000],[219000],[229000],[226000],[227000],[227000]],[[324000],[339000],[350000],[358000],[363000],[374000],[378000],[377000],[379000],[363000],[289000],[197000],[128000],[4000],[5000],[6000],[8000],[32000],[83000],[154000],[217000],[334000],[377000],[413000],[446000],[492000],[505000],[527000],[535000]]]

[]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":"4","precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Reason 3 – The “overcounting” of arrivals and departures in PLT data doesn’t “net out”

Despite the above limitations, it might be tempting to assume that the limitations of how people are identified in these movements is addressed in the use of a “net” measure (that is, the difference between PLT arrivals and PLT departures).

However, as we’ve seen from the two earlier examples, this isn’t the case. They don’t consistently balance out in the same way that net overseas migration will “net out”. This isn’t an issue when OAD is used for its intended purpose of analysing travel and tourism trends, but it is a major problem if used as a proxy for migration.

Let’s look again at our Australian citizen in Example 1. When they arrived for their two week stay, they were counted as one PLT arrival. After the wedding, when they travel back to the UK, OAD has no information on how long they will be gone for. The duration of time away from Australia will have to be imputed as either short-term or long term. People in this situation who are imputed as short-term will not have their departure included in PLT, which means the PLT arrivals and departures will not net out to 0. In NOM data, by contrast, their two week stay will not be enough for them to trigger the threshold of the “12 out of 16 month” rule and they won’t be reflected in NOM.

This inherent unbalanced net outcome is even clearer when we look at the student in Example 2. Throughout their studies in Australia, they would be counted as 3 PLT arrivals and 0 PLT departures, despite only migrating here once and then migrating away 3 years later. In NOM data, by contrast, the student would be identified consistently and only show up twice using the “12 out of 16 month” rule – as an arrival when they moved to Australia at the start of their studies, and a departure when they move back home at the end of their studies.

While these are just two specific examples of many possible cases, the overall effect is that PLT arrivals and departures are significantly higher than NOM arrivals and departures, as can be seen in Graph 2 and Graph 3.

Graph 2: Permanent and long-term arrivals vs migrant arrivals(a)(b)
	Annual PLT arrivals	Annual migrant arrivals
Dec 2007	585,630	460,580
Mar 2008	614,550	481,940
Jun 2008	636,610	501,340
Sep 2008	666,900	520,250
Dec 2008	698,530	535,970
Mar 2009	724,730	532,610
Jun 2009	731,670	519,790
Sep 2009	730,030	503,340
Dec 2009	710,870	478,790
Mar 2010	692,950	454,800
Jun 2010	670,680	437,930
Sep 2010	651,870	424,920
Dec 2010	645,890	425,120
Mar 2011	643,240	426,320
Jun 2011	654,300	431,780
Sep 2011	667,010	439,920
Dec 2011	686,910	449,020
Mar 2012	707,580	457,270
Jun 2012	725,100	467,330
Sep 2012	741,640	475,500
Dec 2012	747,430	478,350
Mar 2013	753,420	483,880
Jun 2013	756,110	482,090
Sep 2013	759,560	484,310
Dec 2013	754,920	478,680
Mar 2014	743,910	472,630
Jun 2014	730,980	464,680
Sep 2014	718,610	459,840
Dec 2014	711,270	458,760
Mar 2015	709,250	460,640
Jun 2015	707,670	465,250
Sep 2015	708,850	469,390
Dec 2015	710,180	473,250
Mar 2016	715,460	481,330
Jun 2016	716,620	489,280
Sep 2016	736,590	507,110
Dec 2016	750,570	519,650
Mar 2017	764,450	536,660
Jun 2017	773,430	540,150
Sep 2017	776,950	540,060
Dec 2017	777,600	531,370
Mar 2018	796,530	527,230
Jun 2018	808,540	527,520
Sep 2018	823,090	530,940
Dec 2018	832,550	534,400
Mar 2019	845,830	536,600
Jun 2019	850,770	550,400
Sep 2019	847,010	566,350
Dec 2019	843,980	607,870
Mar 2020	807,500	618,360
Jun 2020	644,880	506,850
Sep 2020	439,860	361,950
Dec 2020	289,320	235,350
Mar 2021	83,310	113,000
Jun 2021	120,670	146,000
Sep 2021	142,080	161,230
Dec 2021	217,980	214,410
Mar 2022	356,100	334,050
Jun 2022	489,090	423,910
Sep 2022	678,150	569,280
Dec 2022	790,160	651,350
Mar 2023	943,690	704,980
Jun 2023	1,003,600	738,410
Sep 2023	1,066,050	755,440
Dec 2023	1,091,220	739,030
Mar 2024	1,127,930	709,800
Jun 2024	1,110,340	661,360
Sep 2024	1,108,210	616,120
Dec 2024	1,109,190	595,820
Mar 2025	1,119,390	580,490
Jun 2025	1,134,090	570,050
Sep 2025	1,139,940	572,400
Dec 2025	1,152,580	563,540

Graph 2: Permanent and long-term arrivals vs migrant arrivals(a)(b)

["","Annual PLT arrivals","Annual migrant arrivals"]

[["Dec 2007","Mar 2008","Jun 2008","Sep 2008","Dec 2008","Mar 2009","Jun 2009","Sep 2009","Dec 2009","Mar 2010","Jun 2010","Sep 2010","Dec 2010","Mar 2011","Jun 2011","Sep 2011","Dec 2011","Mar 2012","Jun 2012","Sep 2012","Dec 2012","Mar 2013","Jun 2013","Sep 2013","Dec 2013","Mar 2014","Jun 2014","Sep 2014","Dec 2014","Mar 2015","Jun 2015","Sep 2015","Dec 2015","Mar 2016","Jun 2016","Sep 2016","Dec 2016","Mar 2017","Jun 2017","Sep 2017","Dec 2017","Mar 2018","Jun 2018","Sep 2018","Dec 2018","Mar 2019","Jun 2019","Sep 2019","Dec 2019","Mar 2020","Jun 2020","Sep 2020","Dec 2020","Mar 2021","Jun 2021","Sep 2021","Dec 2021","Mar 2022","Jun 2022","Sep 2022","Dec 2022","Mar 2023","Jun 2023","Sep 2023","Dec 2023","Mar 2024","Jun 2024","Sep 2024","Dec 2024","Mar 2025","Jun 2025","Sep 2025","Dec 2025"],[[585630],[614550],[636610],[666900],[698530],[724730],[731670],[730030],[710870],[692950],[670680],[651870],[645890],[643240],[654300],[667010],[686910],[707580],[725100],[741640],[747430],[753420],[756110],[759560],[754920],[743910],[730980],[718610],[711270],[709250],[707670],[708850],[710180],[715460],[716620],[736590],[750570],[764450],[773430],[776950],[777600],[796530],[808540],[823090],[832550],[845830],[850770],[847010],[843980],[807500],[644880],[439860],[289320],[83310],[120670],[142080],[217980],[356100],[489090],[678150],[790160],[943690],[1003600],[1066050],[1091220],[1127930],[1110340],[1108210],[1109190],[1119390],[1134090],[1139940],[1152580]],[[460580],[481940],[501340],[520250],[535970],[532610],[519790],[503340],[478790],[454800],[437930],[424920],[425120],[426320],[431780],[439920],[449020],[457270],[467330],[475500],[478350],[483880],[482090],[484310],[478680],[472630],[464680],[459840],[458760],[460640],[465250],[469390],[473250],[481330],[489280],[507110],[519650],[536660],[540150],[540060],[531370],[527230],[527520],[530940],[534400],[536600],[550400],[566350],[607870],[618360],[506850],[361950],[235350],[113000],[146000],[161230],[214410],[334050],[423910],[569280],[651350],[704980],[738410],[755440],[739030],[709800],[661360],[616120],[595820],[580490],[570050],[572400],[563540]]]

[]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":"4","precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Estimates for migrant arrivals from March quarter 2025 onwards are preliminary.
Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10.

Graph 3: Permanent and long-term departures vs migrant departures(a)(b)
	Annual PLT departures	Annual migrant departures
Dec 2007	319,490	216,550
Mar 2008	339,420	220,500
Jun 2008	353,020	224,000
Sep 2008	359,430	221,600
Dec 2008	370,870	220,280
Mar 2009	376,000	221,690
Jun 2009	384,530	219,920
Sep 2009	395,260	225,090
Dec 2009	405,610	231,890
Mar 2010	419,590	236,740
Jun 2010	424,820	241,870
Sep 2010	427,340	249,600
Dec 2010	431,670	253,080
Mar 2011	435,020	253,170
Jun 2011	439,950	251,410
Sep 2011	444,050	245,880
Dec 2011	445,690	242,780
Mar 2012	446,500	237,990
Jun 2012	445,130	235,380
Sep 2012	444,170	235,650
Dec 2012	445,630	238,110
Mar 2013	445,900	246,420
Jun 2013	445,600	251,760
Sep 2013	448,530	263,100
Dec 2013	448,430	270,310
Mar 2014	450,470	270,440
Jun 2014	449,360	276,900
Sep 2014	450,540	276,110
Dec 2014	443,150	276,410
Mar 2015	447,500	279,560
Jun 2015	450,490	281,220
Sep 2015	456,520	285,160
Dec 2015	463,240	286,520
Mar 2016	468,200	285,350
Jun 2016	472,730	283,040
Sep 2016	473,210	277,600
Dec 2016	484,320	275,820
Mar 2017	489,780	277,080
Jun 2017	495,720	276,800
Sep 2017	504,470	280,640
Dec 2017	515,180	289,710
Mar 2018	522,080	289,230
Jun 2018	532,300	289,300
Sep 2018	537,660	288,620
Dec 2018	541,310	282,180
Mar 2019	546,000	285,930
Jun 2019	552,570	309,060
Sep 2019	547,130	324,320
Dec 2019	549,660	360,250
Mar 2020	525,920	379,110
Jun 2020	408,430	314,160
Sep 2020	310,230	286,340
Dec 2020	192,600	240,320
Mar 2021	106,850	207,340
Jun 2021	135,180	230,930
Sep 2021	157,060	216,610
Dec 2021	215,330	205,100
Mar 2022	290,620	203,030
Jun 2022	423,380	216,000
Sep 2022	529,180	220,650
Dec 2022	616,990	213,500
Mar 2023	673,630	209,150
Jun 2023	649,910	200,070
Sep 2023	636,470	199,640
Dec 2023	643,420	208,410
Mar 2024	639,990	215,980
Jun 2024	641,190	232,200
Sep 2024	659,130	250,490
Dec 2024	664,690	265,360
Mar 2025	681,930	271,660
Jun 2025	676,520	267,870
Sep 2025	671,540	263,770
Dec 2025	672,050	262,590

Graph 3: Permanent and long-term departures vs migrant departures(a)(b)

["","Annual PLT departures","Annual migrant departures"]

[["Dec 2007","Mar 2008","Jun 2008","Sep 2008","Dec 2008","Mar 2009","Jun 2009","Sep 2009","Dec 2009","Mar 2010","Jun 2010","Sep 2010","Dec 2010","Mar 2011","Jun 2011","Sep 2011","Dec 2011","Mar 2012","Jun 2012","Sep 2012","Dec 2012","Mar 2013","Jun 2013","Sep 2013","Dec 2013","Mar 2014","Jun 2014","Sep 2014","Dec 2014","Mar 2015","Jun 2015","Sep 2015","Dec 2015","Mar 2016","Jun 2016","Sep 2016","Dec 2016","Mar 2017","Jun 2017","Sep 2017","Dec 2017","Mar 2018","Jun 2018","Sep 2018","Dec 2018","Mar 2019","Jun 2019","Sep 2019","Dec 2019","Mar 2020","Jun 2020","Sep 2020","Dec 2020","Mar 2021","Jun 2021","Sep 2021","Dec 2021","Mar 2022","Jun 2022","Sep 2022","Dec 2022","Mar 2023","Jun 2023","Sep 2023","Dec 2023","Mar 2024","Jun 2024","Sep 2024","Dec 2024","Mar 2025","Jun 2025","Sep 2025","Dec 2025"],[[319490],[339420],[353020],[359430],[370870],[376000],[384530],[395260],[405610],[419590],[424820],[427340],[431670],[435020],[439950],[444050],[445690],[446500],[445130],[444170],[445630],[445900],[445600],[448530],[448430],[450470],[449360],[450540],[443150],[447500],[450490],[456520],[463240],[468200],[472730],[473210],[484320],[489780],[495720],[504470],[515180],[522080],[532300],[537660],[541310],[546000],[552570],[547130],[549660],[525920],[408430],[310230],[192600],[106850],[135180],[157060],[215330],[290620],[423380],[529180],[616990],[673630],[649910],[636470],[643420],[639990],[641190],[659130],[664690],[681930],[676520],[671540],[672050]],[[216550],[220500],[224000],[221600],[220280],[221690],[219920],[225090],[231890],[236740],[241870],[249600],[253080],[253170],[251410],[245880],[242780],[237990],[235380],[235650],[238110],[246420],[251760],[263100],[270310],[270440],[276900],[276110],[276410],[279560],[281220],[285160],[286520],[285350],[283040],[277600],[275820],[277080],[276800],[280640],[289710],[289230],[289300],[288620],[282180],[285930],[309060],[324320],[360250],[379110],[314160],[286340],[240320],[207340],[230930],[216610],[205100],[203030],[216000],[220650],[213500],[209150],[200070],[199640],[208410],[215980],[232200],[250490],[265360],[271660],[267870],[263770],[262590]]]

[]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":"4","precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":"700000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Estimates for migrant departures from March quarter 2025 onwards are preliminary.
Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10.

NOM calculates migration using the actual observed time people are in or out of Australia

Net Overseas Migration (NOM) only uses duration of physical presence in or out of Australia to classify overseas migrant arrivals and departures. It does not rely on OAD category of travel, passenger-declared information, country of citizenship or visa status.

The NOM method for estimating migration checks every Australian border crossing for a change in the traveller’s residency status. This is done by using the “12 out of 16 month” rule which examines the person’s travel history 16 months before the movement and 16 months after the movement. For example, to be counted as a migrant arrival, these checks will show that the person was not already living in Australia at the time of arrival and stayed here for a total of at least 12 months in the 16 months after the arrival. They are then counted in Australia’s population from the date of their arrival. This is very different to the inherently limited PLT classification in OAD which occurs at the point travellers are crossing the border.

NOM does not classify someone as migrating because of something they wrote on their passenger card, or because of their visa or citizenship status.

For more on how the ABS derives NOM, see Overseas Migration methodology.

Using PLT as a proxy will overstate migration and to a varying extent

Using PLT as a proxy for net overseas migration will generally overstate migration. In the latest data, for the year to December quarter 2025 this was a material difference of 60% or 179,570 people.

Not only is net PLT higher than NOM, apart from during the COVID-19 pandemic when border travel was heavily restricted, its relationship with NOM also varies to a considerable extent. When the difference is small, this is more coincidental than useful.

Graph 4: Error when using net permanent and long-term movements in place of NOM(a)(b)
	Annual difference (PLT - NOM: positive error is overestimating migration)
Dec 2007	22,110
Mar 2008	13,690
Jun 2008	6,260
Sep 2008	8,830
Dec 2008	11,980
Mar 2009	37,800
Jun 2009	47,280
Sep 2009	56,500
Dec 2009	58,360
Mar 2010	55,310
Jun 2010	49,810
Sep 2010	49,210
Dec 2010	42,180
Mar 2011	35,080
Jun 2011	33,980
Sep 2011	28,930
Dec 2011	34,980
Mar 2012	41,810
Jun 2012	48,020
Sep 2012	57,620
Dec 2012	61,550
Mar 2013	70,060
Jun 2013	80,180
Sep 2013	89,810
Dec 2013	98,120
Mar 2014	91,260
Jun 2014	93,840
Sep 2014	84,330
Dec 2014	85,780
Mar 2015	80,670
Jun 2015	73,140
Sep 2015	68,110
Dec 2015	60,220
Mar 2016	51,290
Jun 2016	37,660
Sep 2016	33,870
Dec 2016	22,420
Mar 2017	15,090
Jun 2017	14,350
Sep 2017	13,050
Dec 2017	20,760
Mar 2018	36,460
Jun 2018	38,010
Sep 2018	43,110
Dec 2018	39,020
Mar 2019	49,160
Jun 2019	56,870
Sep 2019	57,840
Dec 2019	46,700
Mar 2020	42,340
Jun 2020	43,760
Sep 2020	54,010
Dec 2020	101,690
Mar 2021	70,800
Jun 2021	70,430
Sep 2021	40,400
Dec 2021	-6,650
Mar 2022	-65,540
Jun 2022	-142,210
Sep 2022	-199,660
Dec 2022	-264,680
Mar 2023	-225,780
Jun 2023	-184,660
Sep 2023	-126,210
Dec 2023	-82,820
Mar 2024	-5,880
Jun 2024	39,990
Sep 2024	83,450
Dec 2024	114,040
Mar 2025	128,640
Jun 2025	155,380
Sep 2025	159,760
Dec 2025	179,570

Graph 4: Error when using net permanent and long-term movements in place of NOM(a)(b)

["","Annual difference (PLT - NOM: positive error is overestimating migration)"]

[["Dec 2007","Mar 2008","Jun 2008","Sep 2008","Dec 2008","Mar 2009","Jun 2009","Sep 2009","Dec 2009","Mar 2010","Jun 2010","Sep 2010","Dec 2010","Mar 2011","Jun 2011","Sep 2011","Dec 2011","Mar 2012","Jun 2012","Sep 2012","Dec 2012","Mar 2013","Jun 2013","Sep 2013","Dec 2013","Mar 2014","Jun 2014","Sep 2014","Dec 2014","Mar 2015","Jun 2015","Sep 2015","Dec 2015","Mar 2016","Jun 2016","Sep 2016","Dec 2016","Mar 2017","Jun 2017","Sep 2017","Dec 2017","Mar 2018","Jun 2018","Sep 2018","Dec 2018","Mar 2019","Jun 2019","Sep 2019","Dec 2019","Mar 2020","Jun 2020","Sep 2020","Dec 2020","Mar 2021","Jun 2021","Sep 2021","Dec 2021","Mar 2022","Jun 2022","Sep 2022","Dec 2022","Mar 2023","Jun 2023","Sep 2023","Dec 2023","Mar 2024","Jun 2024","Sep 2024","Dec 2024","Mar 2025","Jun 2025","Sep 2025","Dec 2025"],[[22110],[13690],[6260],[8830],[11980],[37800],[47280],[56500],[58360],[55310],[49810],[49210],[42180],[35080],[33980],[28930],[34980],[41810],[48020],[57620],[61550],[70060],[80180],[89810],[98120],[91260],[93840],[84330],[85780],[80670],[73140],[68110],[60220],[51290],[37660],[33870],[22420],[15090],[14350],[13050],[20760],[36460],[38010],[43110],[39020],[49160],[56870],[57840],[46700],[42340],[43760],[54010],[101690],[70800],[70430],[40400],[-6650],[-65540],[-142210],[-199660],[-264680],[-225780],[-184660],[-126210],[-82820],[-5880],[39990],[83450],[114040],[128640],[155380],[159760],[179570]]]

[]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":"4","precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":"200000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

NOM estimates from March quarter 2025 onwards are preliminary.
Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10.

The ABS advises that you should use migration statistics for directly measuring migration. Using OAD data for migration analysis, without also using additional information specifically related to migration and some statistical modelling, will provide an inaccurate and misleading indication of migration.

APA

Citation