Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) - 2071

These projections are not predictions or forecasts. They illustrate what would happen to Australia's population if assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2022 and 2071.

Users should assess the available assumptions and choose the combination that best suits their needs.

Assumptions

Introduction

Summary

Assumptions have been formulated on the basis of demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and overseas, in conjunction with consultation with experts at the national and state/territory level. They do not specifically attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes.

As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.

Image

Description

Summary of assumptions The diagram illustrates how using the current long-term trends in fertility, mortality and migration, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. This presents a range of possible future outcomes for Australia's population.

The table below shows how recent demographic trends (an average of the last three years) relate to the proposed assumptions. The projections will show a smooth transition from the most recently observed data to the long-range assumption. This 'phase-in' period is different for each component assumption and so the table also shows the year that each assumption will be phased in by.

	Recent observed average	Low assumption	Medium assumption	High Assumption	Phased in by
Total fertility rate(a)	1.64	1.45	1.60	1.75	2026-27
Male life expectancy at birth(a)	81.2	83.9	83.9	88.4	2070-71
Female life expectancy at birth(a)	85.3	86.8	86.8	91.1	2070-71
Net overseas migration(a)	103,300	175,000	225,000	275,000	2031-32
Net interstate migration	. .	small flows	medium flows	large flows	2026-27

. . not applicable
a. Recent observed average is for calendar years 2020-2022.

Projection series

Fertility

Summary

Future trends in fertility are an important determinant of Australia's future population size, structure and growth. To produce population projections using the cohort-component method, assumptions of age-specific fertility rates and the sex ratio at birth are required for each year of the projection period.

Using data from the past 20 years, three long-term assumptions have been made regarding Australia's future total fertility rate (TFR): higher fertility (a TFR of 1.75 babies per woman), medium fertility (1.6) and lower fertility (1.45). Under all three assumptions, the trend towards older ages of mothers is assumed to continue to 2027, but at a slower rate than seen historically, and remain constant thereafter. For all years, the sex ratio at birth is assumed to be 105.5 male births per 100 female births.

Trends in the total fertility rate

In 1961, at the height of the 'baby boom', Australia's TFR peaked at 3.5 babies per woman. Since then fertility has declined, falling sharply during the early 1960s, before levelling out at around 2.9 babies per woman in the years 1966-1971. The TFR was last at replacement level (2.1) in 1975, and continued to fall thereafter. Fertility stabilised somewhat during the 1980s, before resuming a more gradual decline during the 1990s. The TFR reached a low of 1.7 babies per woman in 2001, increased again to 2.0, before declining to 1.8 in 2016 and to 1.6 in 2022.

Assumed total fertility rates

The three assumptions for Australia's future fertility levels are made with regard to recent trends in the TFR, especially those of the past 20 years.

The higher fertility scenario assumes that Australia's TFR will reach 1.75 babies per woman by 2027 and remain constant thereafter. This reflects levels of fertility recorded since 1977 of between 1.7 and 2.0 babies per woman, acknowledging the possibility that the TFR could increase more, especially in the short-term.

The medium scenario assumes a continuation of the current TFR, with the TFR to remain steady at 1.6 to 2027 and remaining constant thereafter.

Under the lower fertility assumption the TFR declines to 1.45 babies per woman by 2027 and remaining constant thereafter. Fertility rates have reached low levels in many European countries, and higher-income Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

Total fertility rate(a)(b), observed and assumed
	Observed	Assumption - Higher	Assumption - Medium	Assumption - Lower
2004	1.76
2005	1.85
2006	1.9
2007	2
2008	2
2009	1.97
2010	1.94
2011	1.92
2012	1.95
2013	1.87
2014	1.86
2015	1.88
2016	1.79
2017	1.74
2018	1.75
2019	1.67
2020	1.59
2021	1.7
2022	1.63	1.63	1.63	1.63
2023		1.65	1.62	1.59
2024		1.68	1.62	1.56
2025		1.7	1.61	1.52
2026		1.73	1.61	1.49
2027		1.75	1.6	1.45
2028		1.75	1.6	1.45
2029		1.75	1.6	1.45
2030		1.75	1.6	1.45
2031		1.75	1.6	1.45
2032		1.75	1.6	1.45

Total fertility rate(a)(b), observed and assumed

["","Observed","Assumption - Higher","Assumption - Medium","Assumption - Lower"]

[["2004","2005","2006","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032"],[[1.76],[1.85],[1.9],[2],[2],[1.97],[1.94],[1.92],[1.95],[1.87],[1.86],[1.88],[1.79],[1.74],[1.75],[1.67],[1.59],[1.7],[1.63],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null]],[[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[1.63],[1.65],[1.68],[1.7],[1.73],[1.75],[1.75],[1.75],[1.75],[1.75],[1.75]],[[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[1.63],[1.62],[1.62],[1.61],[1.61],[1.6],[1.6],[1.6],[1.6],[1.6],[1.6]],[[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[null],[1.63],[1.59],[1.56],[1.52],[1.49],[1.45],[1.45],[1.45],[1.45],[1.45],[1.45]]]

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Babies per 1,000 women.
Calendar year rates calculated using births by occurrence, adjusted for registration lag.

State/territory and capital city/rest of state observed fertility

The table below shows the TFRs for all states and territories and Australia from 2012 to 2022. Some states have consistently been higher or lower than the national rate, while others have fluctuated over the past 20 years. In recent years, TFRs for Victoria, South Australia, and the ACT have been lower than rates for Australia as a whole, while TFRs for the remaining states and territories, particularly the Northern Territory, have been higher.

Year ending 31 December	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust.
2012	1.93	1.88	2.00	1.90	1.92	2.03	2.16	1.78	1.95
2013	1.94	1.76	1.94	1.85	1.89	2.00	2.06	1.77	1.87
2014	1.72	1.72	1.91	1.85	1.91	1.96	2.04	1.74	1.86
2015	1.86	1.65	1.85	1.76	1.87	1.88	2.01	1.70	1.88
2016	1.74	1.80	1.82	1.76	1.88	1.96	1.94	1.55	1.79
2017	1.71	1.73	1.78	1.68	1.82	1.78	1.89	1.81	1.74
2018	1.87	1.61	1.77	1.66	1.75	1.68	1.99	1.51	1.67
2019	1.71	1.55	1.74	1.67	1.74	1.67	1.79	1.51	1.67
2020	1.65	1.46	1.66	1.56	1.67	1.63	1.81	1.43	1.59
2021	1.77	1.53	1.79	1.66	1.76	1.64	1.83	1.45	1.70
2022	1.71	1.51	1.71	1.62	1.62	1.49	1.73	1.41	1.63

Source Births, Australia.

The ratio of each state and territories' average TFR for the ten years 2013-2022 to that of Australia is calculated, then applied to assumed future Australian TFRs. These ratios remain constant throughout the projection period.

Assumed TFRs for the capital cities and state balances are derived by applying the average ratio (for 2013-2022) of the region to its respective state/territory to that state/territory's assumed TFR. Fertility rates for Australian capital cities are typically lower than rates for their respective states and territories, while rates for state balances are higher.

	Total fertility rate(a)(b)			Assumed fertility ratios(c)
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	rate	rate	rate	%	%	%
New South Wales	1.67	1.98	1.77	94.2	111.6	101.9
Victoria	1.58	1.94	1.63	96.4	118.5	94.1
Queensland	1.71	1.90	1.80	95.0	105.5	103.4
South Australia	1.64	1.98	1.71	96.1	116.0	98.1
Western Australia	1.74	2.08	1.79	97.1	115.9	103.1
Tasmania	1.67	1.83	1.77	94.5	103.8	101.5
Northern Territory	1.81	1.91	1.91	95.2	100.2	109.6
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	1.59	. .	. .	91.7
Australia(d)	. .	. .	1.75	. .	. .	100.0

. . not applicable

Babies per woman.
Average of 2013-2022 TFRs.
Assumed fertility ratios show the relationship of the average TFR for 2013-2022 for each state/territory to Australia; capital city to state/territory; and rest of state/territory to state/territory.
d. Includes Other Territories.

	Higher assumption			Medium assumption			Lower assumption
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate	rate
New South Wales	1.68	1.99	1.78	1.54	1.82	1.63	1.39	1.65	1.48
Victoria	1.59	1.95	1.65	1.45	1.78	1.51	1.32	1.62	1.37
Queensland	1.72	1.91	1.81	1.57	1.75	1.66	1.43	1.58	1.50
South Australia	1.65	1.99	1.72	1.51	1.82	1.57	1.37	1.65	1.42
Western Australia	1.75	2.09	1.81	1.60	1.91	1.65	1.45	1.73	1.50
Tasmania	1.68	1.84	1.78	1.53	1.69	1.62	1.39	1.53	1.47
Northern Territory	1.82	1.92	1.92	1.67	1.76	1.75	1.51	1.59	1.59
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	1.61	. .	. .	1.47	. .	. .	1.33
Australia(b)	. .	. .	1.75	. .	. .	1.60	. .	. .	1.45

. . not applicable

Babies per woman.
Includes Other Territories

Age-specific fertility rates

Population projections require assumptions about future age-specific fertility rates, which are derived from assumed TFRs and age distributions of fertility. These rates are applied to the projected female population in each year of the projection period in order to determine future numbers of births, and therefore the size of future projected populations.

Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst remaining stable among women aged 30 years and over, representing a continuing shift in fertility towards older ages.

The projected age distribution of mothers is based on half the average rate of change in the age-specific fertility rates during the period 2017-2022. The historical rate of change is assumed to slow down due to limits on child-bearing ages. These trends are assumed to continue under all three fertility scenarios until 2027, after which the age pattern of fertility remains constant.

Linear interpolation is used to obtain TFRs for each year 2023 to 2026 for all three scenarios, using the known TFR for 2022 and assumed TFR for 2027. To create assumed age-specific fertility rates, the assumed distribution of age of mothers is then applied to the assumed TFR for the corresponding projection year.

Age-specific fertility rates(a), observed and assumed
Age (years)	2011	2021	2027 Higher	2027 Medium	2027 Lower
15	2.14	0.97	0.48	0.44	0.39
16	6.64	2.19	0.75	0.69	0.62
17	13.65	5.01	2.91	2.66	2.41
18	22.39	10.01	4.98	4.56	4.13
19	33.58	17.44	12.17	11.12	10.08
20	41.24	23.72	19.88	18.17	16.47
21	44.79	30.48	23.42	21.41	19.40
22	51.36	38.74	33.59	30.71	27.83
23	58.97	45.45	42.31	38.69	35.06
24	67.99	53.60	53.46	48.88	44.30
25	79.63	64.68	61.39	56.13	50.87
26	90.52	73.86	73.44	67.15	60.85
27	104.38	85.07	87.27	79.79	72.31
28	115.65	98.11	101.28	92.60	83.92
29	124.87	109.65	110.88	101.38	91.87
30	126.97	117.87	120.70	110.35	100.00
31	134.56	126.27	128.79	117.75	106.71
32	128.75	125.99	133.29	121.86	110.44
33	121.52	120.01	131.61	120.33	109.05
34	111.49	112.96	123.23	112.67	102.10
35	100.36	100.57	113.01	103.32	93.64
36	86.49	84.84	92.58	84.65	76.71
37	70.18	69.82	77.87	71.20	64.52
38	56.03	54.95	60.27	55.11	49.94
39	42.51	42.81	47.13	43.09	39.05
40	29.66	30.68	34.60	31.63	28.67
41	20.27	21.05	24.18	22.11	20.03
42	12.78	13.30	15.47	14.14	12.82
43	7.31	7.40	8.36	7.64	6.93
44	3.75	4.07	5.20	4.75	4.30
45	2.04	2.01	2.73	2.49	2.26
46	1.01	0.99	1.13	1.03	0.94
47	0.55	0.47	0.87	0.80	0.72
48	0.23	0.24	0.67	0.62	0.56
49	0.33	0.22	0.10	0.09	0.08

Age-specific fertility rates(a), observed and assumed

["Age (years)","2011","2021","2027 Higher","2027 Medium","2027 Lower"]

[["15","16","17","18","19","20","21","22","23","24","25","26","27","28","29","30","31","32","33","34","35","36","37","38","39","40","41","42","43","44","45","46","47","48","49"],[[2.13557],[6.63605],[13.65093],[22.38864],[33.58122],[41.24304],[44.79427],[51.36349],[58.97341],[67.98978],[79.63226],[90.51952],[104.37922],[115.65105],[124.86599],[126.96813],[134.55877],[128.74674],[121.52266],[111.49361],[100.36095],[86.48779],[70.17734],[56.03155],[42.50566],[29.65728],[20.26635],[12.77784],[7.30708],[3.75355],[2.035],[1.00791],[0.54876],[0.22659],[0.32546]],[[0.96996],[2.18564],[5.00962],[10.00562],[17.43704],[23.71932],[30.48031],[38.73589],[45.45341],[53.60087],[64.68271],[73.86092],[85.06523],[98.11266],[109.65388],[117.86541],[126.26894],[125.99321],[120.01299],[112.96363],[100.57482],[84.83884],[69.82252],[54.95085],[42.80652],[30.6844],[21.05214],[13.29586],[7.3951],[4.0695],[2.00895],[0.98579],[0.46638],[0.24245],[0.21613]],[[0.47603],[0.75295],[2.91067],[4.98499],[12.16632],[19.87528],[23.41817],[33.58758],[42.31334],[53.4618],[61.39187],[73.44332],[87.27301],[101.28063],[110.88343],[120.69564],[128.79073],[133.28914],[131.60919],[123.22866],[113.00979],[92.58205],[77.87434],[60.27242],[47.13008],[34.59897],[24.17989],[15.46784],[8.36047],[5.19527],[2.72659],[1.12922],[0.87044],[0.67272],[0.09713]],[[0.43523],[0.68841],[2.66118],[4.55771],[11.1235],[18.17168],[21.4109],[30.70865],[38.68648],[48.87936],[56.12971],[67.14818],[79.79246],[92.59943],[101.37913],[110.3503],[117.75153],[121.86435],[120.3284],[112.6662],[103.32324],[84.64645],[71.19939],[55.10621],[43.09036],[31.63335],[22.10733],[14.14203],[7.64386],[4.74996],[2.49289],[1.03243],[0.79584],[0.61506],[0.0888]],[[0.39443],[0.62387],[2.4117],[4.13042],[10.08067],[16.46809],[19.40363],[27.82971],[35.05962],[44.29692],[50.86755],[60.85304],[72.31192],[83.91824],[91.87484],[100.00496],[106.71232],[110.43957],[109.04761],[102.10375],[93.63669],[76.71084],[64.52445],[49.94],[39.05064],[28.66772],[20.03477],[12.81621],[6.92725],[4.30465],[2.25918],[0.93564],[0.72123],[0.5574],[0.08048]]]

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Babies per 1,000 woman.

Sex ratio at birth

Projections require an assumed sex ratio at birth (the ratio of male to female births), so that total projected births can be split into male and female births.

Historically, the sex ratio fluctuates between 105 to 106 male births per 100 female births. A constant ratio of 105.5 male births per 100 female births has been used for the duration of the projection period.

Mortality

Data on age-specific death rates and assumed age-specific mortality rates was added on 7 December 2023.

Summary

For the population projections in this issue, two assumptions on future life expectancy at birth have been made. Only two assumptions have been made because life expectancy has consistently shown an improving trend since Australian records began.

The higher life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will continue to improve at the average rate observed in 2012–2016. The medium life expectancy at birth assumption assumes that life expectancy will also improve, but at a declining rate.

Life tables for 2015-2017 were not created in time to be included in the mortality assumption process.

Trends in life expectancy

Australian life expectancy at birth has improved steadily for both men and women. Since the early 1920s, life expectancy at birth for both males and females has increased by about 21 years. Since the 1980s, faster increases for males has narrowed the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 7 to 4 years. Recent years has seen the improvement in life expectancy declining for both males and females, with both males and females recording an improvement of 0.06 years in 2014-2016.

Life expectancy at birth
	Males (years) (years)	Females (years) (years)
1987	73.06	79.54
1988	73.10	79.53
1989	73.32	79.62
1990	73.87	80.08
1991	74.40	80.41
1992	74.46	80.42
1993	74.98	80.87
1994	75.04	80.90
1995	74.95	80.84
1996	75.22	81.05
1997	75.60	81.30
1998	75.86	81.52
1999	76.22	81.77
2000	76.56	82.04
2001	77.03	82.41
2002	77.40	82.59
2003	77.76	82.84
2004	78.08	83.03
2005	78.47	83.34
2006	78.71	83.48
2007	79.02	83.69
2008	79.16	83.73
2009	79.34	83.89
2010	79.51	84.03
2011	79.75	84.21
2012	79.87	84.25
2013	80.10	84.30
2014	80.30	84.40
2015	80.39	84.51
2016	80.45	84.56
2017	80.48	84.63
2018	80.73	84.87
2019	80.85	85.04
2020	81.19	85.34
2021	81.30	85.41
2022	81.22	85.26

Life expectancy at birth

["","Males (years)","Females (years)"]

[["1987","1988","1989","1990","1991","1992","1993","1994","1995","1996","1997","1998","1999","2000","2001","2002","2003","2004","2005","2006","2007","2008","2009","2010","2011","2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022"],[[73.06],[73.1],[73.32],[73.87],[74.4],[74.46],[74.98],[75.04],[74.95],[75.22],[75.6],[75.86],[76.22],[76.56],[77.03],[77.4],[77.76],[78.08],[78.47],[78.71],[79.02],[79.16],[79.34],[79.51],[79.75],[79.87],[80.1],[80.3],[80.39],[80.45],[80.48],[80.73],[80.85],[81.19],[81.3],[81.22]],[[79.54],[79.53],[79.62],[80.08],[80.41],[80.42],[80.87],[80.9],[80.84],[81.05],[81.3],[81.52],[81.77],[82.04],[82.41],[82.59],[82.84],[83.03],[83.34],[83.48],[83.69],[83.73],[83.89],[84.03],[84.21],[84.25],[84.3],[84.4],[84.51],[84.56],[84.63],[84.87],[85.04],[85.34],[85.41],[85.26]]]

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Assumed life expectancy at birth

The higher life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will continuously increase at the average growth of 2012-2016. The yearly increase of life expectancy of birth for the higher assumption is about 0.14 for males and 0.09 for females. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth reaches 87.68 years in 2066 and female life expectancy at birth reaches 89.16 years.

The medium life expectancy assumption assumes male and female life expectancy at birth will increase at a slightly lower rate than the higher assumption for the first year, and then gradually slow. Based on this assumption, male life expectancy at birth would reach 83.00 years and female life expectancy at birth would reach 86.00 years in 2066.

	Males	Females	Difference
	years	years	years
Declining improvement in life expectancy (Medium assumption)
2025-26	81.97	85.77	3.80
2030-31	82.39	86.01	3.62
2035-36	82.63	86.15	3.52
2040-41	82.81	86.25	3.44
2070-71	83.86	86.85	2.99
Constant improvement in life expectancy (Higher assumption)
2025-26	81.92	85.88	3.96
2030-31	82.64	86.46	3.82
2035-36	83.35	87.03	3.68
2040-41	84.07	87.61	3.54
2070-71	88.37	91.07	2.70

Age-specific death rates

The inputs of the mortality component of population projections are 'survivorship ratios' obtained from assumed future life tables. Life tables for each year in the projection period (i.e. 2022–2071) are calculated in two steps: (1) life expectancy at birth for each projection year is determined; and (2) a life table is generated which gives the desired life expectancy at birth and allows for a shift in the age curve of mortality over time.

The shifting age curve of mortality over time should ideally represent current trends in age-sex differences continued into the future. To achieve this, rates of change indicative of recent trends for each age-sex group are incorporated in the production of the assumed life tables. Determining assumed rates of change is achieved by observing historical patterns in age-specific death rates.

Between 2011 and 2021, males aged 5–9, males aged 95–100+ and females aged 5–19 had the largest relative declines in age-specific death rates. The groups with the least improvement in death rates were males aged 20–59, males aged over 95, females aged 40–64 and females aged over 90. In general, greater change over time has been observed for males compared to females.

Assumed age-specific mortality rates

Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to decrease for all age groups for both males and females over the projection period. Very little change is assumed for ages over 90. For corresponding ages, mortality rates for females are always assumed to be lower than for males.

Age-specific mortality rates(a), males
Age (years)	2022	2046	2071
0	0.00313	0.00263	0.00241
1	0.00023	0.00019	0.00017
2	0.00017	0.00014	0.00013
3	0.00015	0.00011	0.00010
4	0.00013	0.00010	0.00009
5	0.00012	0.00010	0.00009
6	0.00011	0.00009	0.00008
7	0.00010	0.00008	0.00008
8	0.00010	0.00008	0.00008
9	0.00010	0.00008	0.00008
10	0.00011	0.00009	0.00009
11	0.00012	0.00010	0.00009
12	0.00013	0.00011	0.00010
13	0.00015	0.00013	0.00012
14	0.00017	0.00015	0.00013
15	0.00024	0.00021	0.00019
16	0.00031	0.00027	0.00025
17	0.00039	0.00035	0.00032
18	0.00045	0.00040	0.00037
19	0.00049	0.00044	0.00040
20	0.00051	0.00045	0.00041
21	0.00053	0.00046	0.00043
22	0.00052	0.00045	0.00042
23	0.00055	0.00048	0.00044
24	0.00056	0.00049	0.00045
25	0.00060	0.00053	0.00048
26	0.00062	0.00054	0.00050
27	0.00062	0.00055	0.00050
28	0.00064	0.00056	0.00052
29	0.00069	0.00060	0.00055
30	0.00074	0.00064	0.00059
31	0.00081	0.00070	0.00064
32	0.00080	0.00069	0.00063
33	0.00085	0.00074	0.00067
34	0.00089	0.00078	0.00071
35	0.00091	0.00080	0.00073
36	0.00097	0.00085	0.00078
37	0.00097	0.00085	0.00078
38	0.00105	0.00092	0.00085
39	0.00111	0.00097	0.00089
40	0.00120	0.00105	0.00096
41	0.00125	0.00109	0.00100
42	0.00140	0.00122	0.00112
43	0.00163	0.00143	0.00131
44	0.00185	0.00162	0.00149
45	0.00197	0.00173	0.00159
46	0.00202	0.00178	0.00163
47	0.00209	0.00184	0.00169
48	0.00233	0.00206	0.00189
49	0.00234	0.00207	0.00190
50	0.00268	0.00237	0.00217
51	0.00276	0.00244	0.00224
52	0.00319	0.00282	0.00259
53	0.00353	0.00312	0.00286
54	0.00370	0.00326	0.00299
55	0.00405	0.00357	0.00327
56	0.00451	0.00396	0.00363
57	0.00495	0.00434	0.00398
58	0.00541	0.00473	0.00434
59	0.00574	0.00501	0.00460
60	0.00641	0.00559	0.00512
61	0.00654	0.00569	0.00521
62	0.00724	0.00628	0.00576
63	0.00815	0.00706	0.00648
64	0.00890	0.00770	0.00706
65	0.00948	0.00818	0.00751
66	0.01026	0.00883	0.00810
67	0.01127	0.00967	0.00887
68	0.01257	0.01074	0.00985
69	0.01354	0.01152	0.01057
70	0.01474	0.01248	0.01144
71	0.01575	0.01327	0.01217
72	0.01733	0.01455	0.01335
73	0.01822	0.01527	0.01401
74	0.02033	0.01702	0.01561
75	0.02344	0.01962	0.01800
76	0.02603	0.02177	0.01998
77	0.02997	0.02505	0.02299
78	0.03396	0.02835	0.02602
79	0.03799	0.03166	0.02906
80	0.04363	0.03629	0.03332
81	0.04951	0.04120	0.03784
82	0.05539	0.04621	0.04245
83	0.06184	0.05184	0.04763
84	0.07029	0.05934	0.05453
85	0.07825	0.06664	0.06126
86	0.08910	0.07639	0.07026
87	0.10499	0.09047	0.08325
88	0.11553	0.09981	0.09188
89	0.12253	0.10590	0.09751
90	0.15276	0.13202	0.12170
91	0.17016	0.14741	0.13597
92	0.18303	0.15937	0.14708
93	0.20396	0.17913	0.16545
94	0.22844	0.20296	0.18764
95	0.24469	0.22030	0.20383
96	0.25712	0.23372	0.21636
97	0.27367	0.25042	0.23199
98	0.30013	0.27583	0.25580
99	0.32481	0.29900	0.27756
100	0.35443	0.32607	0.30303

Age-specific mortality rates(a), males

["Age (years)","2022","2046","2071"]

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[]

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Age-specific mortality rates(a), females
Age (years)	2022	2046	2071
0	0.00288	0.00253	0.00229
1	0.00018	0.00015	0.00014
2	0.00014	0.00011	0.00010
3	0.00013	0.00010	0.00010
4	0.00011	0.00009	0.00008
5	0.00010	0.00008	0.00008
6	0.00009	0.00007	0.00007
7	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
8	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
9	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
10	0.00008	0.00007	0.00006
11	0.00009	0.00008	0.00007
12	0.00010	0.00008	0.00008
13	0.00012	0.00010	0.00010
14	0.00013	0.00011	0.00010
15	0.00014	0.00012	0.00011
16	0.00015	0.00013	0.00012
17	0.00016	0.00014	0.00013
18	0.00017	0.00015	0.00014
19	0.00019	0.00017	0.00016
20	0.00021	0.00018	0.00017
21	0.00024	0.00021	0.00020
22	0.00026	0.00023	0.00022
23	0.00027	0.00024	0.00023
24	0.00028	0.00025	0.00023
25	0.00028	0.00025	0.00024
26	0.00028	0.00025	0.00024
27	0.00028	0.00025	0.00024
28	0.00028	0.00025	0.00024
29	0.00028	0.00025	0.00024
30	0.00028	0.00025	0.00024
31	0.00029	0.00026	0.00024
32	0.00030	0.00027	0.00026
33	0.00033	0.00030	0.00028
34	0.00042	0.00037	0.00036
35	0.00046	0.00041	0.00039
36	0.00056	0.00050	0.00047
37	0.00058	0.00052	0.00049
38	0.00061	0.00054	0.00052
39	0.00063	0.00056	0.00054
40	0.00072	0.00065	0.00061
41	0.00077	0.00069	0.00066
42	0.00085	0.00077	0.00073
43	0.00094	0.00085	0.00081
44	0.00101	0.00091	0.00087
45	0.00108	0.00098	0.00093
46	0.00119	0.00108	0.00103
47	0.00136	0.00123	0.00117
48	0.00144	0.00130	0.00124
49	0.00157	0.00142	0.00135
50	0.00169	0.00153	0.00146
51	0.00175	0.00159	0.00151
52	0.00195	0.00178	0.00169
53	0.00207	0.00188	0.00179
54	0.00220	0.00199	0.00190
55	0.00242	0.00219	0.00208
56	0.00272	0.00245	0.00233
57	0.00287	0.00259	0.00246
58	0.00313	0.00282	0.00268
59	0.00345	0.00311	0.00296
60	0.00358	0.00323	0.00307
61	0.00399	0.00361	0.00343
62	0.00438	0.00395	0.00375
63	0.00462	0.00416	0.00396
64	0.00514	0.00462	0.00439
65	0.00544	0.00488	0.00464
66	0.00594	0.00531	0.00505
67	0.00669	0.00597	0.00567
68	0.00749	0.00667	0.00634
69	0.00803	0.00714	0.00679
70	0.00903	0.00803	0.00763
71	0.01016	0.00902	0.00858
72	0.01073	0.00952	0.00905
73	0.01181	0.01047	0.00995
74	0.01396	0.01236	0.01175
75	0.01474	0.01303	0.01239
76	0.01751	0.01547	0.01470
77	0.01930	0.01703	0.01619
78	0.02238	0.01973	0.01876
79	0.02573	0.02267	0.02155
80	0.02920	0.02570	0.02444
81	0.03295	0.02902	0.02759
82	0.03812	0.03364	0.03199
83	0.04519	0.04001	0.03806
84	0.05045	0.04489	0.04271
85	0.05856	0.05243	0.04989
86	0.06632	0.05955	0.05668
87	0.07635	0.06857	0.06527
88	0.09108	0.08156	0.07767
89	0.10079	0.08969	0.08543
90	0.11993	0.10577	0.10077
91	0.13609	0.12036	0.11472
92	0.14820	0.13294	0.12675
93	0.17360	0.15961	0.15228
94	0.19020	0.18044	0.17224
95	0.21908	0.21333	0.19463
96	0.23327	0.22833	0.20666
97	0.25369	0.24803	0.22168
98	0.29020	0.27329	0.24458
99	0.32200	0.29621	0.26553
100	0.33395	0.31421	0.30094

Age-specific mortality rates(a), females

["Age (years)","2022","2046","2071"]

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[]

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Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state mortality

Assumptions of life expectancy at birth by state/territory are derived from the Australian assumptions by applying a ten year average of the ratio of the state or territory life expectancy to the Australian life expectancy. A similar process is used to create the capital city/rest of state assumptions, by using the ratio of capital city/rest of state life expectancy to the state life expectancy for the most recent life table period 2014–2016. These ratios are calculated separately for males and females and remain constant through the projection period.

	Life expectancy at birth 2020-2022		Male mortality ratios			Female mortality ratios
	Males	Females	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	Years	Years	%	%	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	81.3	85.3	101.2	95.4	100.1	101.1	96.5	100.1
Victoria	81.6	85.5	101.1	95.9	100.5	101.0	96.8	100.3
Queensland	80.7	85.0	101.0	96.3	99.4	100.8	97.0	99.6
South Australia	81.0	85.1	101.1	96.5	99.7	101.1	96.7	99.8
Western Australia	81.7	85.8	101.2	96.0	100.7	101.0	96.7	100.7
Tasmania	80.3	84.3	101.0	96.8	98.9	101.1	96.4	98.9
Northern Territory	76.2	80.7	100.7	92.1	93.8	101.1	94.3	94.7
Australian Capital Territory	82.2	86.0	. .	. .	101.2	. .	. .	100.9
Australia	81.2	85.3	. .	. .	100.0	. .	. .	100.0

. . not applicable

Mortality ratios based on the relationships of 2006–2016 life expectancies at birth between each state/territory and Australia, and 2014–2016 life expectancies at birth between each capital city and its state/territory, and between each rest of state/territory and its state/territory.

Net overseas migration

Summary

Three assumptions have been made about Australia's future levels of net overseas migration (NOM):

275,000 people per year (higher),
225,000 people per year (medium); and
175,000 people per year (lower).

In addition, a zero net overseas migration assumption has been included to facilitate analysis of the effect of overseas migration on Australia's future population.

The ABS had regard to Treasury Budget and 2023 Intergenerational Report Net Overseas Migration figures. The NOM assumption reflects established trends observed in the period 2010-2019. All NOM assumptions are held constant from 2031-32 onwards.

Historical data

Annual levels of NOM have fluctuated considerably in Australia over the past 20 years. For financial years, the level has been as low as -85,000 in 2020-21, a result of the international border closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, to a high of 300,000 in 2008-09.

Net overseas migration(a), observed and assumed
	Observed	Assumed - higher	Assumed - Medium	Assumed - Lower
2002	133,684
2003	154,225
2004	164,620
2005	177,973
2006	199,273
2007	232,796
2008	277,338
2009	299,866
2010	196,058
2011	180,372
2012	231,947
2013	230,329
2014	187,778
2015	184,033
2016	206,233
2017	263,351
2018	238,224
2019	241,338
2020	192,703
2021	-84,930
2022	202,252	202,252	202,252	202,252
2023		450,000	400,000	350,000
2024		375,000	315,000	275,000
2025		363,000	304,000	263,000
2026		350,000	293,000	250,000
2027		338,000	282,000	238,000
2028		325,000	271,000	225,000
2029		313,000	260,000	213,000
2030		300,000	248,000	200,000
2031		288,000	237,000	188,000
2032		275,000	225,000	175,000

Net overseas migration(a), observed and assumed

["","Observed","Assumed - higher","Assumed - Medium","Assumed - Lower"]

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[]

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New South Wales was the largest gainer of NOM from 2010 to 2019, with Victoria being the second largest gainer. NOM for Queensland and Western Australia declined after those states recorded strong NOM gains at the start of the period. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have seen fluctuations in their NOM between 2010 and 2019, with Tasmania and the Northern Territory recording strong gains in 2017.

Year ending 30 June	NSW ('000)	Vic. ('000)	Qld ('000)	SA ('000)	WA ('000)	Tas. ('000)	NT ('000)	ACT ('000)	Aust. ('000)
2010	57.2	53.7	35.8	14.5	28.9	1.7	1.2	3.1	196.1
2011	51.7	44.6	34.6	9.2	36.4	1.0	1.1	1.7	180.4
2012	57.2	56.2	46.5	12.4	50.8	1.5	3.3	4.0	231.9
2013	66.8	59.0	41.8	11.7	42.1	1.6	4.4	2.9	230.3
2014	67.0	56.9	27.2	11.6	18.8	1.8	1.8	2.7	187.8
2015	70.3	60.7	20.4	11.2	14.1	1.5	2.4	3.5	184.0
2016	80.0	72.2	25.0	11.3	11.6	1.8	1.0	3.3	206.2
2017	105.5	91.2	34.1	12.2	12.0	2.3	1.8	4.1	263.4
2018	90.7	87.0	27.7	12.7	12.0	2.8	0.8	4.6	238.2
2019	84.5	85.5	31.7	15.1	17.5	3.2	0.9	2.8	241.3
2020	57.9	60.6	28.0	14.9	25.2	3.6	0.3	2.2	192.7
2021(a)	-7.2	-53.1	-12.8	-2.8	-5.1	-0.3	-0.4	-3.1	-84.9
2022	69.1	66.1	29.6	14.3	15.3	3.4	2.3	3.4	203.6

Due to the closure of international borders in March 2020 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the years 2019-20 to 2021-22 were removed from calculations for long-term Net Overseas Migration assumptions. A weighted average was calculated using the ten years from 2009-10 to 2018-19.

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state share of net overseas migration

With the release of sub-state population component data in the ABS publication Regional Population, regional overseas migration estimates have been used to calculate the capital city/rest of state for overseas migration.

Each state and territory's proportion of NOM is based on a weighted-average of the available timeseries from 2011-12 to 2018-19, with the years 2019-20 to 2021-22 removed from consideration due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The table below shows the assumed state/territory net overseas migration distribution.

	NSW (%)	Vic. (%)	Qld (%)	SA (%)	WA (%)	Tas. (%)	NT (%)	ACT (%)
2023	34.25	32.51	14.45	6.87	7.54	1.57	1.12	1.65
2024	34.43	32.55	14.36	6.73	7.68	1.50	1.08	1.64
2025	34.60	32.58	14.28	6.59	7.82	1.44	1.04	1.63
2026	34.77	32.62	14.20	6.45	7.96	1.37	1.00	1.62
2027	34.94	32.66	14.11	6.30	8.10	1.30	0.96	1.61
2028	35.11	32.70	14.03	6.16	8.24	1.24	0.92	1.60
2029	35.28	32.73	13.95	6.02	8.37	1.17	0.88	1.58
2030	35.45	32.77	13.86	5.87	8.51	1.10	0.84	1.57
2031	35.63	32.81	13.78	5.73	8.65	1.04	0.80	1.56
2032-2071	35.80	32.84	13.69	5.59	8.79	0.97	0.76	1.55

	Higher assumption			Medium assumption			Lower assumption
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
New South Wales	84.51	13.39	97.90	68.67	11.43	80.10	52.83	9.47	62.30
Victoria	82.84	7.36	90.20	67.51	6.29	73.80	52.18	5.22	57.40
Queensland	22.50	15.45	37.95	18.18	12.87	31.05	13.86	10.29	24.15
South Australia	14.40	1.28	15.68	11.76	1.07	12.83	9.12	0.86	9.98
Western Australia	21.39	2.54	23.93	17.47	2.10	19.58	13.56	1.67	15.23
Tasmania	1.59	1.16	2.75	1.28	0.97	2.25	0.96	0.79	1.75
Northern Territory	1.67	0.53	2.20	1.37	0.43	1.80	1.06	0.34	1.40
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	4.40	. .	. .	3.60	. .	. .	2.80
Australia	233.30	41.70	275.00	189.83	35.17	225.00	146.37	28.63	175.00

. . not applicable

Assumed age structure of net overseas migration

The assumed age/sex structure of NOM for the states and territories is derived from the 2018–2020 NOM. Overseas migrant arrivals and departures by state/territory, age and sex are simultaneously constrained to the total assumed NOM level for Australia and to the assumed state/territory shares of NOM. The assumed age/sex structures are held constant throughout the projection period.

Net interstate migration

Summary

Interstate migration is a volatile and largely unpredictable component in population estimation or projection. The movement of people between the states and territories of Australia is influenced by many factors such as varying economic opportunities, overseas immigration and settlement patterns and individual lifestyle choices. As the effect of these factors cannot be anticipated, past net interstate migration trends are used as the basis for assuming future levels.

Historical data

Net interstate migration (NIM) estimates since 1 July 2009 are shown below. These are calculated using Medicare change of address records, defence data and Census data on usual residence one year ago and five years ago.

Year ending 30 June	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas	NT	ACT
Year ending 30 June	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
2010	-9.5	3.3	6.2	-2.7	2.1	0.7	-0.7	0.4
2011	-13.5	3.5	6.8	-2.6	7.0	0.0	-2.5	1.4
2012	-18.1	2.4	11.8	-3.2	8.6	-1.9	-0.7	1.1
2013	-14.6	6.4	8.9	-4.8	5.7	-1.3	-0.5	0.2
2014	-6.8	9.7	6.3	-3.9	-1.7	-0.4	-2.4	-0.8
2015	-6.8	11.1	6.9	-4.6	-4.3	0.1	-2.3	-0.1
2016	-11.5	17.6	12.0	-7.2	-10.0	0.8	-2.0	0.4
2017	-16.0	13.7	17.5	-6.3	-11.9	1.9	-1.9	2.9
2018	-22.5	9.1	24.6	-4.7	-8.8	3.0	-2.7	1.9
2019	-23.8	6.5	22.6	-3.3	-3.4	2.2	-3.0	2.2
2020	-22.5	-2.7	23.8	-1.3	0.3	0.9	-0.9	2.3
2021(a)	-34.0	-35.6	40.2	4.9	14.0	4.6	-0.3	6.3
2022	-39.3	-14.9	48.8	0.2	10.3	-0.4	-2.6	-2.2

Due to the closure of state and territory borders in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the years 2019-20 to 2021-22 were removed from calculations for long-term Net Internal Migration assumptions.

Victoria has experienced recent net interstate migration losses after earlier gains, over the last decade.

Queensland remains the largest recipient of net interstate migration, while New South Wales continues to experience net interstate migration losses.

Western Australia has experienced a turn around from losses in 2014-19 to moderate gains in the most recent 3 years.

South Australia has experienced recent small gains, turning around from its 11 year trend of net interstate migration losses.

State/territory and capital city/rest of state assumptions

Levels of assumed net interstate migration were derived by analysing trends over the past ten years of data, not including those years affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, and constraining them such that they sum to zero. The assumptions reflect the view that each state/territory will trend towards their short term average.

Three assumptions have been made about future net interstate migration levels:

large interstate flows: relatively large net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, corresponding to relatively large losses for other states and territories. For example, this equates to large net gains in Queensland and correspondingly large net losses in New South Wales;
medium interstate flows: medium net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and medium losses for others; and
small interstate flows: relatively small net interstate migration gains for some states and territories, and small losses for others.

The medium series assumptions are based on NIM averages for the states and territories in the period 2010-2019. The large and small assumptions are based on minimum and maximum share of state values of observed arrivals and departures over the last ten years, with adjustments made based on the trend data, as well as ensuring that each sum of the state/territory NIM is zero.

It should be noted that for some states the large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate migration losses, therefore the small interstate flows assumption will yield greater population growth in such cases.

All assumptions are separated into arrivals and departures for each state/territory and capital city/rest of state (Greater Capital City Statistical Area). Rates for arrivals and departures for the states and territories are generated from movement data from recent Censuses to obtain age/sex levels. Further, 2016 and 2021 Census data are used to generate age/sex arrival and departure levels for each capital city/rest of state. As a result, all age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations sum to the net internal migration assumptions.

	Large interstate flows assumption			Medium interstate flows assumption			Small interstate flows assumption
	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total	Capital city	Rest of state	Total
	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)	('000)
New South Wales	-35.2	11.2	-24.0	-30.9	15.4	-15.5	-26.7	19.7	-7.0
Victoria	-0.5	18.0	17.5	-6.4	14.4	8.0	-12.5	10.5	-2.0
Queensland	14.2	7.8	22.0	9.5	2.5	12.0	6.8	-0.8	6.0
South Australia	-5.4	-0.6	-6.0	-4.1	0.1	-4.0	–3.1	0.6	-2.5
Western Australia	-5.2	-6.8	–12.0	2.6	-2.1	0.5	7.2	0.8	8.0
Tasmania	0.8	1.7	2.5	-0.3	0.3	0.0	-1.3	-1.2	-2.5
Northern Territory	-2.1	-0.9	–3.0	-1.1	-0.4	-1.5	0.6	0.4	1.0
Australian Capital Territory	. .	. .	-1.0	. .	. .	0.5	. .	. .	3.0

. . not applicable

National

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)
High series	1.75	88.4	91.1	275,000
Medium series	1.6	83.9	86.8	225,000
Low series	1.45	83.9	86.8	175,000

Population size and change

Australia's population of 26.0 million at 30 June 2022 is projected to:

increase by an annual average of between 1.2% and 1.7% until June 2032
grow by an annual average of between 0.6% and 1.1% per year over the entire projection period
reach between 29.2 and 30.8 million people by 2032, and between 34.3 and 45.9 million people by 2071

An assumption of zero net overseas migration has been included to demonstrate the trajectory of Australia's future population relying entirely on natural increase.

Projected population, Australia
YEAR	High series	Medium series	Low series	Zero net overseas migration
2022	26,013,061	26,013,061	26,013,061	26,013,061
2023	26,588,782	26,535,367	26,482,176	26,132,200
2024	27,095,255	26,971,766	26,869,019	26,244,652
2025	27,594,464	27,395,011	27,235,315	26,349,737
2026	28,086,207	27,805,684	27,580,551	26,448,052
2027	28,570,009	28,201,094	27,902,964	26,536,957
2028	29,042,054	28,581,272	28,204,391	26,616,417
2029	29,500,502	28,946,317	28,488,756	26,686,494
2030	29,944,100	29,294,970	28,754,774	26,747,035
2031	30,373,698	29,628,141	29,003,323	26,798,084
2032	30,788,281	29,944,139	29,232,681	26,839,159
2033	31,200,900	30,255,082	29,455,940	26,870,573
2034	31,611,780	30,561,214	29,673,319	26,892,756
2035	32,021,148	30,862,815	29,885,092	26,906,252
2036	32,429,254	31,160,201	30,091,582	26,911,719
2037	32,836,248	31,453,335	30,292,784	26,909,548
2038	33,242,207	31,742,414	30,488,939	26,900,396
2039	33,647,144	32,027,609	30,680,281	26,884,927
2040	34,050,838	32,308,944	30,866,912	26,863,665
2041	34,453,048	32,586,368	31,048,868	26,837,029
2042	34,853,582	32,859,780	31,226,136	26,805,333
2043	35,252,197	33,129,057	31,398,665	26,768,779
2044	35,648,618	33,394,090	31,566,394	26,727,485
2045	36,042,657	33,654,800	31,729,273	26,681,521
2046	36,434,115	33,911,034	31,887,151	26,630,819
2047	36,822,929	34,162,704	32,039,916	26,575,312
2048	37,209,139	34,409,841	32,187,550	26,514,998
2049	37,592,743	34,652,393	32,329,935	26,449,754
2050	37,973,865	34,890,378	32,466,996	26,379,506
2051	38,352,711	35,123,948	32,598,771	26,304,293
2052	38,729,617	35,353,281	32,725,307	26,224,178
2053	39,104,964	35,578,653	32,846,736	26,139,312
2054	39,479,130	35,800,310	32,963,157	26,049,828
2055	39,852,558	36,018,580	33,074,749	25,955,904
2056	40,225,669	36,233,685	33,181,609	25,857,633
2057	40,598,856	36,445,900	33,283,914	25,755,144
2058	40,972,461	36,655,452	33,381,830	25,648,517
2059	41,346,753	36,862,520	33,475,528	25,537,810
2060	41,721,892	37,067,287	33,565,236	25,423,115
2061	42,097,990	37,269,885	33,651,180	25,304,512
2062	42,474,992	37,470,402	33,733,579	25,182,077
2063	42,852,792	37,668,912	33,812,657	25,055,920
2064	43,231,258	37,865,441	33,888,603	24,926,159
2065	43,610,243	38,060,030	33,961,606	24,792,958
2066	43,989,685	38,252,663	34,031,792	24,656,482
2067	44,369,451	38,443,367	34,099,312	24,516,979
2068	44,749,444	38,632,078	34,164,217	24,374,658
2069	45,129,481	38,818,718	34,226,525	24,229,714
2070	45,509,357	39,003,121	34,286,154	24,082,292
2071	45,888,867	39,185,129	34,343,015	23,932,547

Projected population, Australia

["YEAR","High series","Medium series","Low series","Zero net overseas migration"]

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Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures).

Natural increase

There were 300,700 births and 183,300 deaths during 2021-22, resulting in a natural increase of 117,400 people.

The number of births is projected to increase to between 284,700 and 482,700 births per year by 2071.
The number of deaths is projected to reach between 378,200 and 402,800 by 2071.
Natural increase is projected to be between 118,000 (a decrease) and 104,500 people in 2071.

Projected natural increase, Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	125,397	125,397	125,397
2023	125,721	122,306	119,115
2024	131,473	121,399	111,843
2025	136,209	119,245	103,296
2026	141,743	117,673	95,236
2027	145,802	113,410	84,413
2028	147,045	109,178	76,427
2029	145,448	105,045	71,365
2030	143,598	100,653	66,018
2031	141,598	96,171	60,549
2032	139,583	90,998	54,358
2033	137,619	85,943	48,259
2034	135,880	81,132	42,379
2035	134,368	76,601	36,773
2036	133,106	72,386	31,490
2037	131,994	68,134	26,202
2038	130,959	64,079	21,155
2039	129,937	60,195	16,342
2040	128,694	56,335	11,631
2041	127,210	52,424	6,956
2042	125,534	48,412	2,268
2043	123,615	44,277	-2,471
2044	121,421	40,033	-7,271
2045	119,039	35,710	-12,121
2046	116,458	31,234	-17,122
2047	113,814	26,670	-22,235
2048	111,210	22,137	-27,366
2049	108,604	17,552	-32,615
2050	106,122	12,985	-37,939
2051	103,846	8,570	-43,225
2052	101,906	4,333	-48,464
2053	100,347	372	-53,571
2054	99,166	-3,343	-58,579
2055	98,428	-6,730	-63,408
2056	98,111	-9,895	-68,140
2057	98,187	-12,785	-72,695
2058	98,605	-15,448	-77,084
2059	99,292	-17,932	-81,302
2060	100,139	-20,233	-85,292
2061	101,098	-22,402	-89,056
2062	102,002	-24,483	-92,601
2063	102,800	-26,490	-95,922
2064	103,466	-28,471	-99,054
2065	103,985	-30,411	-101,997
2066	104,442	-32,367	-104,814
2067	104,766	-34,296	-107,480
2068	104,993	-36,289	-110,095
2069	105,037	-38,360	-112,692
2070	104,876	-40,597	-115,371
2071	104,510	-42,992	-118,139

Projected natural increase, Australia

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[125397],[125721],[131473],[136209],[141743],[145802],[147045],[145448],[143598],[141598],[139583],[137619],[135880],[134368],[133106],[131994],[130959],[129937],[128694],[127210],[125534],[123615],[121421],[119039],[116458],[113814],[111210],[108604],[106122],[103846],[101906],[100347],[99166],[98428],[98111],[98187],[98605],[99292],[100139],[101098],[102002],[102800],[103466],[103985],[104442],[104766],[104993],[105037],[104876],[104510]],[[125397],[122306],[121399],[119245],[117673],[113410],[109178],[105045],[100653],[96171],[90998],[85943],[81132],[76601],[72386],[68134],[64079],[60195],[56335],[52424],[48412],[44277],[40033],[35710],[31234],[26670],[22137],[17552],[12985],[8570],[4333],[372],[-3343],[-6730],[-9895],[-12785],[-15448],[-17932],[-20233],[-22402],[-24483],[-26490],[-28471],[-30411],[-32367],[-34296],[-36289],[-38360],[-40597],[-42992]],[[125397],[119115],[111843],[103296],[95236],[84413],[76427],[71365],[66018],[60549],[54358],[48259],[42379],[36773],[31490],[26202],[21155],[16342],[11631],[6956],[2268],[-2471],[-7271],[-12121],[-17122],[-22235],[-27366],[-32615],[-37939],[-43225],[-48464],[-53571],[-58579],[-63408],[-68140],[-72695],[-77084],[-81302],[-85292],[-89056],[-92601],[-95922],[-99054],[-101997],[-104814],[-107480],[-110095],[-112692],[-115371],[-118139]]]

[]

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Net overseas migration

In all series, overseas migrant arrivals are assumed to exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 9.2 million to 14.3 million in total between 2022 and 2071.

Contribution of net overseas migration to the projected population, Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	202,252	202,252	202,252
2023	652,252	602,252	552,252
2024	1,027,252	917,252	827,252
2025	1,390,252	1,221,252	1,090,252
2026	1,740,252	1,514,252	1,340,252
2027	2,078,252	1,796,252	1,578,252
2028	2,403,252	2,067,252	1,803,252
2029	2,716,252	2,327,252	2,016,252
2030	3,016,252	2,575,252	2,216,252
2031	3,304,252	2,812,252	2,404,252
2032	3,579,252	3,037,252	2,579,252
2033	3,854,252	3,262,252	2,754,252
2034	4,129,252	3,487,252	2,929,252
2035	4,404,252	3,712,252	3,104,252
2036	4,679,252	3,937,252	3,279,252
2037	4,954,252	4,162,252	3,454,252
2038	5,229,252	4,387,252	3,629,252
2039	5,504,252	4,612,252	3,804,252
2040	5,779,252	4,837,252	3,979,252
2041	6,054,252	5,062,252	4,154,252
2042	6,329,252	5,287,252	4,329,252
2043	6,604,252	5,512,252	4,504,252
2044	6,879,252	5,737,252	4,679,252
2045	7,154,252	5,962,252	4,854,252
2046	7,429,252	6,187,252	5,029,252
2047	7,704,252	6,412,252	5,204,252
2048	7,979,252	6,637,252	5,379,252
2049	8,254,252	6,862,252	5,554,252
2050	8,529,252	7,087,252	5,729,252
2051	8,804,252	7,312,252	5,904,252
2052	9,079,252	7,537,252	6,079,252
2053	9,354,252	7,762,252	6,254,252
2054	9,629,252	7,987,252	6,429,252
2055	9,904,252	8,212,252	6,604,252
2056	10,179,252	8,437,252	6,779,252
2057	10,454,252	8,662,252	6,954,252
2058	10,729,252	8,887,252	7,129,252
2059	11,004,252	9,112,252	7,304,252
2060	11,279,252	9,337,252	7,479,252
2061	11,554,252	9,562,252	7,654,252
2062	11,829,252	9,787,252	7,829,252
2063	12,104,252	10,012,252	8,004,252
2064	12,379,252	10,237,252	8,179,252
2065	12,654,252	10,462,252	8,354,252
2066	12,929,252	10,687,252	8,529,252
2067	13,204,252	10,912,252	8,704,252
2068	13,479,252	11,137,252	8,879,252
2069	13,754,252	11,362,252	9,054,252
2070	14,029,252	11,587,252	9,229,252
2071	14,304,252	11,812,252	9,404,252

Contribution of net overseas migration to the projected population, Australia

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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Population by age

States and territories

The high and medium series both project population growth for all states and territories between 2022 and 2071. The low series projects growth for all states and territories except South Australia and Tasmania which would start to decline in 2039 and 2029 respectively. New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state in all series, reaching over 9 million between 2028 and 2032.

By 2032:

New South Wales is projected to reach between 9.0 and 9.7 million people
Victoria's population is projected to reach between 7.6 and 8.2 million people
Queensland is projected to reach between 6.0 and 6.4 million people
Western Australia is projected to reach between 3.0 and 3.3 million
South Australia's population is projected to be between 1.9 and 2.1 million
Tasmania's population is projected to increase to between 579,600 and 645,600
the Northern Territory's population is projected to reach between 263,900 and 312,400
the population of Australian Capital Territory is projected to reach between 504,800 and 564,200 people. Its medium scenario is projected to exceed Tasmania's medium series population by the year 2048

Projected Population, 2071
	High series ('000)	Medium series ('000)	Low series ('000)
New South Wales	13,809	12,045	10,841
Victoria	13,765	11,245	9,266
Queensland	9,773	7,995	6,839
South Australia	2,468	2,187	1,988
Western Australia	3,895	4,000	3,960
Tasmania	843	610	425
Northern Territory	441	359	337
Australian Capital Territory	994	740	579
Australia(a)	45,889	39,185	34,343

Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.

Capital cities

At 30 June 2022, 67% of Australians lived in capital cities. This proportion is projected to increase to 68% by 2032.

Melbourne is projected to be the largest city in Australia by 2071 with a projected population between 6.5 million and 9.9 million, surpassing Sydney between 2032 and 2046.

Sydney is projected to remain constant or increase from 65% of the state's population in 2022 to 66% in 2032.
Melbourne is projected to remain constant or increase from 76% of Victoria in 2022 to 77% in 2032.
Brisbane is projected to increase from 49% of Queensland's population to between 50% and 51% in 2032, becoming the majority part of Queensland's population.
Adelaide is projected to grow from 78% in 2022 to between 79% and 80% in 2032.
Perth is projected to remain constant or increase from 80% to 81%.
Hobart is projected to increase its share of Tasmania's population, from 44% in 2022 to between 45% and 46% in 2032.
Darwin is projected to remain constant or increase its share of the territory’s population from 60% in 2022 to 61% in 2032.

New South Wales

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.78	88.4	91.1	97,900	-24,000
Medium series	1.63	83.9	86.9	80,100	-15,500
Low series	1.48	83.9	86.9	62,300	-7,000

Population size and change

New South Wales' population of 8.2 million is projected to:

grow by between 0.4% and 1.2% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
reach between 9.2 million and 9.6 million by 2032, and between 10.8 million and 13.8 million by 2071

Projected population, New South Wales
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2022	8,166,525	8,166,525	8,166,525	8,166,525	8,166,525
2023	8,341,073	8,323,889	8,308,795	8,304,795	8,345,073
2024	8,491,447	8,453,902	8,426,235	8,414,425	8,503,262
2025	8,638,413	8,580,341	8,538,190	8,516,212	8,660,420
2026	8,781,199	8,702,446	8,644,507	8,609,218	8,816,574
2027	8,920,424	8,820,393	8,746,490	8,693,725	8,973,390
2028	9,055,666	8,933,348	8,841,657	8,771,202	9,126,508
2029	9,186,911	9,041,818	8,931,668	8,843,310	9,275,909
2030	9,313,449	9,145,140	9,015,876	8,909,412	9,420,877
2031	9,435,555	9,243,603	9,094,551	8,969,786	9,561,671
2032	9,552,738	9,336,512	9,166,993	9,023,745	9,697,794
2033	9,669,252	9,427,851	9,237,595	9,075,696	9,833,490
2034	9,785,169	9,517,701	9,306,421	9,125,718	9,968,821
2035	9,900,572	9,606,150	9,373,553	9,173,902	10,103,852
2036	10,015,528	9,693,298	9,439,095	9,220,363	10,238,642
2037	10,130,095	9,779,151	9,503,052	9,265,124	10,373,231
2038	10,244,307	9,863,776	9,565,503	9,308,276	10,507,642
2039	10,358,184	9,947,242	9,626,526	9,349,914	10,641,879
2040	10,471,675	10,029,571	9,686,164	9,390,096	10,775,870
2041	10,584,724	10,110,747	9,744,423	9,428,841	10,909,542
2042	10,697,292	10,190,742	9,801,293	9,466,158	11,042,839
2043	10,809,314	10,269,523	9,856,759	9,502,045	11,175,677
2044	10,920,709	10,347,053	9,910,790	9,536,490	11,307,959
2045	11,031,430	10,423,309	9,963,371	9,569,489	11,439,623
2046	11,141,411	10,498,248	10,014,451	9,601,003	11,570,596
2047	11,250,652	10,571,845	10,063,996	9,631,010	11,700,869
2048	11,359,159	10,644,117	10,112,001	9,659,512	11,830,437
2049	11,466,945	10,715,051	10,158,431	9,686,488	11,959,313
2050	11,574,037	10,784,657	10,203,262	9,711,923	12,087,522
2051	11,680,516	10,852,988	10,246,510	9,735,841	12,215,145
2052	11,786,475	10,920,102	10,288,192	9,758,263	12,342,276
2053	11,892,037	10,986,093	10,328,354	9,779,243	12,469,043
2054	11,997,329	11,051,038	10,367,026	9,798,818	12,595,577
2055	12,102,483	11,115,048	10,404,273	9,817,054	12,722,016
2056	12,207,627	11,178,188	10,440,119	9,833,985	12,848,496
2057	12,312,868	11,240,534	10,474,611	9,849,662	12,975,130
2058	12,418,308	11,302,149	10,507,788	9,864,129	13,102,020
2059	12,524,010	11,363,061	10,539,681	9,877,414	13,229,233
2060	12,630,012	11,423,305	10,570,336	9,889,567	13,356,810
2061	12,736,327	11,482,897	10,599,800	9,900,634	13,484,764
2062	12,842,933	11,541,857	10,628,133	9,910,674	13,613,070
2063	12,949,786	11,600,209	10,655,407	9,919,760	13,741,680
2064	13,056,855	11,657,954	10,681,670	9,927,940	13,870,557
2065	13,164,088	11,715,112	10,706,990	9,935,284	13,999,642
2066	13,271,480	11,771,677	10,731,400	9,941,830	14,128,929
2067	13,378,979	11,827,657	10,754,950	9,947,623	14,258,359
2068	13,486,554	11,883,035	10,777,657	9,952,683	14,387,897
2069	13,594,142	11,937,781	10,799,520	9,957,010	14,517,473
2070	13,701,688	11,991,839	10,820,509	9,960,582	14,647,027
2071	13,809,124	12,045,167	10,840,602	9,963,379	14,776,483

Projected population, New South Wales

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

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[]

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Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows.

The largest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because New South Wales experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for New South Wales is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

In the high series, the number of births is projected to exceed the number of deaths for New South Wales.
In the low and medium series, deaths are projected to exceed births from 2044 (low) and 2055 (medium).

The declining natural increase in the medium and low assumption series is due to the lower total fertility rate assumption in these projections.

Projected natural increase, New South Wales
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	39,865	39,865	39,865
2023	42,098	40,964	39,920
2024	43,249	39,968	36,805
2025	43,969	38,508	33,224
2026	44,565	36,876	29,419
2027	45,601	35,311	25,683
2028	45,817	33,876	22,952
2029	45,272	32,618	21,270
2030	44,638	31,278	19,502
2031	43,968	29,912	17,701
2032	43,283	28,309	15,659
2033	42,614	26,739	13,651
2034	42,017	25,250	11,722
2035	41,503	23,849	9,884
2036	41,056	22,548	8,161
2037	40,667	21,253	6,461
2038	40,312	20,025	4,852
2039	39,977	18,866	3,338
2040	39,591	17,729	1,882
2041	39,149	16,576	445
2042	38,668	15,395	-983
2043	38,122	14,181	-2,413
2044	37,495	12,930	-3,855
2045	36,821	11,656	-5,301
2046	36,081	10,339	-6,786
2047	35,341	8,997	-8,293
2048	34,607	7,672	-9,798
2049	33,886	6,334	-11,324
2050	33,192	5,006	-12,865
2051	32,579	3,731	-14,382
2052	32,059	2,514	-15,878
2053	31,662	1,391	-17,320
2054	31,392	345	-18,725
2055	31,254	-590	-20,064
2056	31,244	-1,460	-21,369
2057	31,341	-2,254	-22,623
2058	31,540	-2,985	-23,833
2059	31,802	-3,688	-25,015
2060	32,102	-4,356	-26,147
2061	32,415	-5,008	-27,233
2062	32,706	-5,640	-28,260
2063	32,953	-6,248	-29,214
2064	33,169	-6,855	-30,120
2065	33,333	-7,442	-30,956
2066	33,492	-8,035	-31,754
2067	33,599	-8,620	-32,507
2068	33,675	-9,222	-33,240
2069	33,688	-9,854	-33,973
2070	33,646	-10,542	-34,728
2071	33,536	-11,272	-35,503

Projected natural increase, New South Wales

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[39865],[42098],[43249],[43969],[44565],[45601],[45817],[45272],[44638],[43968],[43283],[42614],[42017],[41503],[41056],[40667],[40312],[39977],[39591],[39149],[38668],[38122],[37495],[36821],[36081],[35341],[34607],[33886],[33192],[32579],[32059],[31662],[31392],[31254],[31244],[31341],[31540],[31802],[32102],[32415],[32706],[32953],[33169],[33333],[33492],[33599],[33675],[33688],[33646],[33536]],[[39865],[40964],[39968],[38508],[36876],[35311],[33876],[32618],[31278],[29912],[28309],[26739],[25250],[23849],[22548],[21253],[20025],[18866],[17729],[16576],[15395],[14181],[12930],[11656],[10339],[8997],[7672],[6334],[5006],[3731],[2514],[1391],[345],[-590],[-1460],[-2254],[-2985],[-3688],[-4356],[-5008],[-5640],[-6248],[-6855],[-7442],[-8035],[-8620],[-9222],[-9854],[-10542],[-11272]],[[39865],[39920],[36805],[33224],[29419],[25683],[22952],[21270],[19502],[17701],[15659],[13651],[11722],[9884],[8161],[6461],[4852],[3338],[1882],[445],[-983],[-2413],[-3855],[-5301],[-6786],[-8293],[-9798],[-11324],[-12865],[-14382],[-15878],[-17320],[-18725],[-20064],[-21369],[-22623],[-23833],[-25015],[-26147],[-27233],[-28260],[-29214],[-30120],[-30956],[-31754],[-32507],[-33240],[-33973],[-34728],[-35503]]]

[]

[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"-40000","axis_max":"60000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration is projected to return to assumed levels between 62,300 (low) and 97,900 (high) per year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

In all series, the projected number of interstate departures exceeds interstate arrivals in all years, resulting in a net interstate migration loss for the entire period.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), New South Wales
Age	ERP - 2022 (%)	High series - 2071 (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%)	Low series - 2071 (%)
0	1.22	1.08	0.98	0.84
1	1.16	1.08	0.98	0.84
2	1.15	1.07	0.98	0.84
3	1.17	1.07	0.98	0.85
4	1.17	1.07	0.98	0.85
5	1.20	1.08	0.99	0.86
6	1.23	1.08	0.99	0.87
7	1.22	1.07	1.00	0.88
8	1.24	1.07	1.00	0.88
9	1.26	1.07	1.00	0.89
10	1.27	1.07	1.01	0.90
11	1.25	1.07	1.01	0.91
12	1.27	1.07	1.01	0.92
13	1.25	1.06	1.02	0.93
14	1.25	1.06	1.02	0.94
15	1.23	1.06	1.02	0.95
16	1.18	1.06	1.03	0.96
17	1.15	1.06	1.04	0.97
18	1.14	1.08	1.06	1.00
19	1.17	1.12	1.10	1.04
20	1.19	1.14	1.13	1.06
21	1.24	1.15	1.14	1.07
22	1.28	1.17	1.15	1.09
23	1.28	1.19	1.18	1.11
24	1.30	1.21	1.19	1.13
25	1.34	1.21	1.20	1.13
26	1.36	1.21	1.20	1.13
27	1.40	1.22	1.20	1.13
28	1.41	1.22	1.21	1.14
29	1.43	1.23	1.21	1.14
30	1.45	1.23	1.22	1.15
31	1.48	1.23	1.22	1.15
32	1.48	1.23	1.22	1.15
33	1.46	1.23	1.22	1.15
34	1.45	1.23	1.22	1.16
35	1.44	1.23	1.22	1.16
36	1.45	1.23	1.22	1.16
37	1.44	1.23	1.23	1.17
38	1.44	1.23	1.23	1.17
39	1.43	1.23	1.23	1.17
40	1.39	1.23	1.23	1.18
41	1.36	1.23	1.23	1.18
42	1.29	1.22	1.23	1.18
43	1.26	1.22	1.23	1.19
44	1.23	1.21	1.23	1.20
45	1.22	1.20	1.23	1.22
46	1.22	1.19	1.23	1.24
47	1.23	1.17	1.23	1.25
48	1.25	1.15	1.23	1.27
49	1.28	1.16	1.25	1.30
50	1.33	1.14	1.22	1.27
51	1.32	1.13	1.21	1.26
52	1.22	1.14	1.22	1.27
53	1.21	1.14	1.22	1.27
54	1.16	1.14	1.22	1.28
55	1.14	1.15	1.24	1.30
56	1.14	1.14	1.23	1.29
57	1.16	1.14	1.23	1.29
58	1.20	1.15	1.23	1.30
59	1.23	1.14	1.23	1.30
60	1.22	1.14	1.22	1.29
61	1.20	1.14	1.23	1.30
62	1.15	1.14	1.22	1.29
63	1.13	1.14	1.22	1.29
64	1.11	1.13	1.21	1.28
65	1.07	1.11	1.18	1.25
66	1.04	1.08	1.15	1.22
67	1.01	1.05	1.12	1.19
68	0.98	1.02	1.09	1.16
69	0.96	1.00	1.07	1.14
70	0.92	1.01	1.08	1.16
71	0.91	1.00	1.07	1.16
72	0.89	0.96	1.03	1.12
73	0.86	0.94	1.01	1.10
74	0.86	0.94	1.01	1.11
75	0.86	0.95	1.01	1.11
76	0.72	0.95	1.01	1.11
77	0.67	0.93	0.99	1.09
78	0.63	0.91	0.96	1.07
79	0.55	0.89	0.94	1.04
80	0.52	0.88	0.92	1.02
81	0.48	0.86	0.89	0.99
82	0.45	0.82	0.84	0.94
83	0.41	0.78	0.79	0.89
84	0.38	0.75	0.75	0.84

Victoria

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.65	89.0	91.4	90,200	17,500
Medium series	1.51	84.4	87.1	73,800	8,000
Low series	1.37	84.4	87.1	57,400	-2,000

Population size and change

Victoria's population of 6.6 million is projected to:

increase by between 0.7% and 1.5% per year, higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
reach a population of between 9.3 million and 13.8 million by 2071

Projected population, Victoria
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	6,630,258	6,630,258	6,630,258
2023	6,793,450	6,775,597	6,758,046
2024	6,941,905	6,898,479	6,862,260
2025	7,094,861	7,023,308	6,965,405
2026	7,252,691	7,152,161	7,066,644
2027	7,418,601	7,281,698	7,164,160
2028	7,581,558	7,407,248	7,255,824
2029	7,740,800	7,528,500	7,342,405
2030	7,895,705	7,644,861	7,423,335
2031	8,046,824	7,756,852	7,499,086
2032	8,193,692	7,863,852	7,569,048
2033	8,340,466	7,969,734	7,637,437
2034	8,487,196	8,074,543	7,704,301
2035	8,633,921	8,178,348	7,769,712
2036	8,780,702	8,281,229	7,833,755
2037	8,927,565	8,383,158	7,896,423
2038	9,074,520	8,484,176	7,957,780
2039	9,221,548	8,584,319	8,017,886
2040	9,368,564	8,683,573	8,076,763
2041	9,515,471	8,781,916	8,134,428
2042	9,662,181	8,879,306	8,190,879
2043	9,808,583	8,975,691	8,246,096
2044	9,954,566	9,071,013	8,300,055
2045	10,100,031	9,165,222	8,352,732
2046	10,244,902	9,258,261	8,404,090
2047	10,389,112	9,350,082	8,454,088
2048	10,532,649	9,440,670	8,502,711
2049	10,675,478	9,529,986	8,549,918
2050	10,817,617	9,618,015	8,595,681
2051	10,959,087	9,704,783	8,639,997
2052	11,099,982	9,790,316	8,682,871
2053	11,240,376	9,874,672	8,724,323
2054	11,380,371	9,957,905	8,764,366
2055	11,520,076	10,040,079	8,803,027
2056	11,659,614	10,121,240	8,840,310
2057	11,799,095	10,201,460	8,876,256
2058	11,938,620	10,280,788	8,910,893
2059	12,078,274	10,359,282	8,944,269
2060	12,218,113	10,436,994	8,976,442
2061	12,358,186	10,513,973	9,007,479
2062	12,498,475	10,590,237	9,037,434
2063	12,638,953	10,665,810	9,066,369
2064	12,779,584	10,740,693	9,094,330
2065	12,920,324	10,814,895	9,121,367
2066	13,061,138	10,888,402	9,147,510
2067	13,201,995	10,961,222	9,172,805
2068	13,342,858	11,033,328	9,197,257
2069	13,483,678	11,104,703	9,220,874
2070	13,624,384	11,175,298	9,243,637
2071	13,764,922	11,245,065	9,265,522

Projected population, Victoria

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[6630258],[6793450],[6941905],[7094861],[7252691],[7418601],[7581558],[7740800],[7895705],[8046824],[8193692],[8340466],[8487196],[8633921],[8780702],[8927565],[9074520],[9221548],[9368564],[9515471],[9662181],[9808583],[9954566],[10100031],[10244902],[10389112],[10532649],[10675478],[10817617],[10959087],[11099982],[11240376],[11380371],[11520076],[11659614],[11799095],[11938620],[12078274],[12218113],[12358186],[12498475],[12638953],[12779584],[12920324],[13061138],[13201995],[13342858],[13483678],[13624384],[13764922]],[[6630258],[6775597],[6898479],[7023308],[7152161],[7281698],[7407248],[7528500],[7644861],[7756852],[7863852],[7969734],[8074543],[8178348],[8281229],[8383158],[8484176],[8584319],[8683573],[8781916],[8879306],[8975691],[9071013],[9165222],[9258261],[9350082],[9440670],[9529986],[9618015],[9704783],[9790316],[9874672],[9957905],[10040079],[10121240],[10201460],[10280788],[10359282],[10436994],[10513973],[10590237],[10665810],[10740693],[10814895],[10888402],[10961222],[11033328],[11104703],[11175298],[11245065]],[[6630258],[6758046],[6862260],[6965405],[7066644],[7164160],[7255824],[7342405],[7423335],[7499086],[7569048],[7637437],[7704301],[7769712],[7833755],[7896423],[7957780],[8017886],[8076763],[8134428],[8190879],[8246096],[8300055],[8352732],[8404090],[8454088],[8502711],[8549918],[8595681],[8639997],[8682871],[8724323],[8764366],[8803027],[8840310],[8876256],[8910893],[8944269],[8976442],[9007479],[9037434],[9066369],[9094330],[9121367],[9147510],[9172805],[9197257],[9220874],[9243637],[9265522]]]

[]

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[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"2000000","axis_min":"6000000","axis_max":"16000000","axis_title":"","precision":"","table_units":"","tooltip_units":"","axis_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Natural increase

In the high series, the number of births is projected to exceed the number of deaths for Victoria.
In the low and medium series, deaths are projected to exceed births from 2043 (low) and 2056 (medium).

Projected natural increase, Victoria
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	31,624	31,624	31,624
2023	30,692	29,839	29,038
2024	32,580	30,007	27,589
2025	34,363	29,930	25,835
2026	36,616	30,239	24,407
2027	38,222	29,605	21,928
2028	39,182	28,933	20,089
2029	39,289	28,147	18,860
2030	39,305	27,265	17,530
2031	39,249	26,333	16,149
2032	39,168	25,200	14,562
2033	39,074	24,082	12,989
2034	39,030	23,009	11,464
2035	39,025	22,005	10,011
2036	39,081	21,081	8,643
2037	39,163	20,129	7,268
2038	39,255	19,218	5,957
2039	39,328	18,343	4,706
2040	39,316	17,454	3,477
2041	39,207	16,543	2,265
2042	39,010	15,590	1,051
2043	38,702	14,585	-183
2044	38,283	13,522	-1,441
2045	37,765	12,409	-2,723
2046	37,171	11,239	-4,042
2047	36,510	10,021	-5,402
2048	35,837	8,788	-6,777
2049	35,129	7,516	-8,193
2050	34,439	6,229	-9,637
2051	33,770	4,968	-11,084
2052	33,195	3,733	-12,526
2053	32,694	2,556	-13,948
2054	32,295	1,433	-15,357
2055	32,005	374	-16,739
2056	31,838	-639	-18,117
2057	31,781	-1,580	-19,454
2058	31,825	-2,472	-20,763
2059	31,954	-3,306	-22,024
2060	32,139	-4,088	-23,227
2061	32,373	-4,821	-24,363
2062	32,589	-5,536	-25,445
2063	32,778	-6,227	-26,465
2064	32,931	-6,917	-27,439
2065	33,040	-7,598	-28,363
2066	33,114	-8,293	-29,257
2067	33,157	-8,980	-30,105
2068	33,163	-9,694	-30,948
2069	33,120	-10,425	-31,783
2070	33,006	-11,205	-32,637
2071	32,838	-12,033	-33,515

Projected natural increase, Victoria

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[31624],[30692],[32580],[34363],[36616],[38222],[39182],[39289],[39305],[39249],[39168],[39074],[39030],[39025],[39081],[39163],[39255],[39328],[39316],[39207],[39010],[38702],[38283],[37765],[37171],[36510],[35837],[35129],[34439],[33770],[33195],[32694],[32295],[32005],[31838],[31781],[31825],[31954],[32139],[32373],[32589],[32778],[32931],[33040],[33114],[33157],[33163],[33120],[33006],[32838]],[[31624],[29839],[30007],[29930],[30239],[29605],[28933],[28147],[27265],[26333],[25200],[24082],[23009],[22005],[21081],[20129],[19218],[18343],[17454],[16543],[15590],[14585],[13522],[12409],[11239],[10021],[8788],[7516],[6229],[4968],[3733],[2556],[1433],[374],[-639],[-1580],[-2472],[-3306],[-4088],[-4821],[-5536],[-6227],[-6917],[-7598],[-8293],[-8980],[-9694],[-10425],[-11205],[-12033]],[[31624],[29038],[27589],[25835],[24407],[21928],[20089],[18860],[17530],[16149],[14562],[12989],[11464],[10011],[8643],[7268],[5957],[4706],[3477],[2265],[1051],[-183],[-1441],[-2723],[-4042],[-5402],[-6777],[-8193],[-9637],[-11084],[-12526],[-13948],[-15357],[-16739],[-18117],[-19454],[-20763],[-22024],[-23227],[-24363],[-25445],[-26465],[-27439],[-28363],[-29257],[-30105],[-30948],[-31783],[-32637],[-33515]]]

[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"-40000","axis_max":"50000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 57,400 and 90,200 people added each year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

In the high and medium series, interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain of 8,000 and 17,500 people per year respectively from 2027.
The low series assumes a net interstate migration loss of 2,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), Victoria
Age	ERP - 2022 (%) (%)	High series - 2071 (%) (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%) (%)	Low series - 2071 (%) (%)
0	1.17	1.01	0.92	0.78
1	1.16	1.01	0.92	0.79
2	1.14	1.01	0.92	0.79
3	1.17	1.01	0.92	0.80
4	1.18	1.02	0.93	0.80
5	1.20	1.02	0.93	0.81
6	1.24	1.02	0.94	0.82
7	1.23	1.02	0.94	0.82
8	1.23	1.02	0.94	0.83
9	1.25	1.01	0.94	0.84
10	1.23	1.01	0.95	0.84
11	1.20	1.01	0.95	0.85
12	1.22	1.01	0.95	0.86
13	1.20	1.01	0.96	0.87
14	1.20	1.00	0.96	0.88
15	1.20	1.00	0.97	0.89
16	1.15	1.01	0.97	0.90
17	1.11	1.02	0.99	0.92
18	1.13	1.04	1.02	0.95
19	1.16	1.08	1.06	1.00
20	1.20	1.11	1.09	1.03
21	1.26	1.13	1.11	1.05
22	1.30	1.16	1.14	1.08
23	1.31	1.19	1.18	1.11
24	1.34	1.22	1.21	1.14
25	1.41	1.23	1.22	1.15
26	1.45	1.24	1.23	1.16
27	1.50	1.25	1.24	1.17
28	1.51	1.26	1.25	1.18
29	1.52	1.27	1.26	1.19
30	1.53	1.28	1.26	1.19
31	1.56	1.28	1.27	1.20
32	1.57	1.29	1.27	1.20
33	1.55	1.29	1.27	1.21
34	1.55	1.29	1.28	1.21
35	1.54	1.29	1.28	1.21
36	1.54	1.29	1.28	1.21
37	1.53	1.28	1.28	1.21
38	1.50	1.28	1.28	1.22
39	1.49	1.28	1.28	1.22
40	1.44	1.28	1.28	1.22
41	1.39	1.27	1.28	1.22
42	1.32	1.27	1.27	1.23
43	1.28	1.27	1.27	1.23
44	1.25	1.26	1.27	1.24
45	1.23	1.24	1.27	1.25
46	1.23	1.22	1.27	1.27
47	1.24	1.21	1.27	1.29
48	1.25	1.19	1.26	1.30
49	1.26	1.20	1.28	1.33
50	1.31	1.18	1.26	1.31
51	1.33	1.17	1.24	1.29
52	1.25	1.17	1.25	1.30
53	1.24	1.17	1.25	1.30
54	1.18	1.17	1.25	1.31
55	1.14	1.18	1.27	1.33
56	1.14	1.17	1.25	1.31
57	1.14	1.17	1.25	1.32
58	1.16	1.17	1.25	1.32
59	1.17	1.17	1.25	1.31
60	1.15	1.16	1.24	1.30
61	1.14	1.16	1.24	1.31
62	1.10	1.16	1.23	1.30
63	1.08	1.16	1.23	1.30
64	1.05	1.15	1.22	1.29
65	1.02	1.12	1.19	1.26
66	1.00	1.09	1.16	1.23
67	0.97	1.06	1.13	1.20
68	0.93	1.03	1.09	1.17
69	0.91	1.00	1.07	1.15
70	0.88	1.01	1.08	1.16
71	0.87	1.00	1.07	1.16
72	0.84	0.96	1.03	1.12
73	0.81	0.94	1.00	1.10
74	0.81	0.94	1.00	1.10
75	0.82	0.94	1.00	1.10
76	0.68	0.94	1.00	1.11
77	0.63	0.92	0.98	1.08
78	0.58	0.90	0.95	1.06
79	0.52	0.87	0.92	1.03
80	0.51	0.86	0.91	1.01
81	0.46	0.84	0.87	0.98
82	0.43	0.80	0.83	0.93
83	0.40	0.77	0.78	0.88
84	0.37	0.73	0.74	0.83

Queensland

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.81	87.9	90.8	37,950	22,000
Medium series	1.66	83.5	86.6	31,050	12,000
Low series	1.50	83.5	86.6	24,150	6,000

Population size and change

Queensland's population of 5.3 million is projected to:

increase by between 0.5% and 1.2% per year, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia
reach a population of between 6.8 million and 9.8 million by 2071

Projected population, Queensland
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	5,320,711	5,320,711	5,320,711
2023	5,450,404	5,438,963	5,427,064
2024	5,565,429	5,539,988	5,515,083
2025	5,677,388	5,633,397	5,593,935
2026	5,786,026	5,718,783	5,663,358
2027	5,888,541	5,796,382	5,722,497
2028	5,989,259	5,871,249	5,777,825
2029	6,087,850	5,943,517	5,830,207
2030	6,184,055	6,012,936	5,879,406
2031	6,278,290	6,079,892	5,925,760
2032	6,370,222	6,143,954	5,968,876
2033	6,461,877	6,206,994	6,010,722
2034	6,553,279	6,269,048	6,051,336
2035	6,644,453	6,330,159	6,090,763
2036	6,735,427	6,390,373	6,129,059
2037	6,826,205	6,449,668	6,166,210
2038	6,916,779	6,508,077	6,202,265
2039	7,007,134	6,565,622	6,237,263
2040	7,097,211	6,622,304	6,271,220
2041	7,186,953	6,678,109	6,304,146
2042	7,276,319	6,733,024	6,336,043
2043	7,365,260	6,787,026	6,366,905
2044	7,453,729	6,840,100	6,396,725
2045	7,541,698	6,892,238	6,425,496
2046	7,629,130	6,943,411	6,453,185
2047	7,716,029	6,993,612	6,479,778
2048	7,802,421	7,042,856	6,505,274
2049	7,888,313	7,091,135	6,529,648
2050	7,973,753	7,138,463	6,552,891
2051	8,058,796	7,184,879	6,575,016
2052	8,143,521	7,230,428	6,596,040
2053	8,228,027	7,275,175	6,615,995
2054	8,312,391	7,319,175	6,634,908
2055	8,396,723	7,362,505	6,652,829
2056	8,481,098	7,405,220	6,669,792
2057	8,565,606	7,447,376	6,685,839
2058	8,650,319	7,489,021	6,701,008
2059	8,735,289	7,530,203	6,715,350
2060	8,820,540	7,570,957	6,728,915
2061	8,906,092	7,611,311	6,741,750
2062	8,991,928	7,651,288	6,753,908
2063	9,078,022	7,690,895	6,765,431
2064	9,164,343	7,730,150	6,776,371
2065	9,250,860	7,769,064	6,786,766
2066	9,337,556	7,807,639	6,796,654
2067	9,424,407	7,845,883	6,806,068
2068	9,511,392	7,883,794	6,815,027
2069	9,598,474	7,921,347	6,823,527
2070	9,685,605	7,958,514	6,831,559
2071	9,772,740	7,995,261	6,839,103

Projected population, Queensland

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[5320711],[5450404],[5565429],[5677388],[5786026],[5888541],[5989259],[6087850],[6184055],[6278290],[6370222],[6461877],[6553279],[6644453],[6735427],[6826205],[6916779],[7007134],[7097211],[7186953],[7276319],[7365260],[7453729],[7541698],[7629130],[7716029],[7802421],[7888313],[7973753],[8058796],[8143521],[8228027],[8312391],[8396723],[8481098],[8565606],[8650319],[8735289],[8820540],[8906092],[8991928],[9078022],[9164343],[9250860],[9337556],[9424407],[9511392],[9598474],[9685605],[9772740]],[[5320711],[5438963],[5539988],[5633397],[5718783],[5796382],[5871249],[5943517],[6012936],[6079892],[6143954],[6206994],[6269048],[6330159],[6390373],[6449668],[6508077],[6565622],[6622304],[6678109],[6733024],[6787026],[6840100],[6892238],[6943411],[6993612],[7042856],[7091135],[7138463],[7184879],[7230428],[7275175],[7319175],[7362505],[7405220],[7447376],[7489021],[7530203],[7570957],[7611311],[7651288],[7690895],[7730150],[7769064],[7807639],[7845883],[7883794],[7921347],[7958514],[7995261]],[[5320711],[5427064],[5515083],[5593935],[5663358],[5722497],[5777825],[5830207],[5879406],[5925760],[5968876],[6010722],[6051336],[6090763],[6129059],[6166210],[6202265],[6237263],[6271220],[6304146],[6336043],[6366905],[6396725],[6425496],[6453185],[6479778],[6505274],[6529648],[6552891],[6575016],[6596040],[6615995],[6634908],[6652829],[6669792],[6685839],[6701008],[6715350],[6728915],[6741750],[6753908],[6765431],[6776371],[6786766],[6796654],[6806068],[6815027],[6823527],[6831559],[6839103]]]

[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"5000000","axis_max":"10000000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Natural increase

In the high series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Queensland.
In the low and medium series, deaths will exceed births from 2044 (low) and 2056 (medium)

Projected natural increase, Queensland
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	26,725	26,725	26,725
2023	26,943	26,252	25,603
2024	28,525	26,415	24,419
2025	29,885	26,339	22,942
2026	31,538	26,445	21,637
2027	32,519	25,555	19,343
2028	32,893	24,656	17,603
2029	32,727	23,831	16,532
2030	32,505	22,947	15,399
2031	32,243	22,046	14,248
2032	31,982	21,012	12,966
2033	31,705	19,990	11,696
2034	31,452	19,004	10,464
2035	31,224	18,061	9,277
2036	31,024	17,164	8,146
2037	30,828	16,245	7,001
2038	30,624	15,359	5,905
2039	30,405	14,495	4,848
2040	30,127	13,632	3,807
2041	29,792	12,755	2,776
2042	29,416	11,865	1,747
2043	28,991	10,952	712
2044	28,519	10,024	-330
2045	28,019	9,088	-1,379
2046	27,482	8,123	-2,461
2047	26,949	7,151	-3,557
2048	26,442	6,194	-4,654
2049	25,942	5,229	-5,776
2050	25,490	4,278	-6,907
2051	25,093	3,366	-8,025
2052	24,775	2,499	-9,126
2053	24,556	1,697	-10,195
2054	24,414	950	-11,237
2055	24,382	280	-12,229
2056	24,425	-335	-13,187
2057	24,558	-894	-14,103
2058	24,763	-1,405	-14,981
2059	25,020	-1,868	-15,808
2060	25,301	-2,296	-16,585
2061	25,602	-2,696	-17,315
2062	25,886	-3,073	-17,992
2063	26,144	-3,443	-18,627
2064	26,371	-3,795	-19,210
2065	26,567	-4,136	-19,755
2066	26,746	-4,475	-20,262
2067	26,901	-4,806	-20,736
2068	27,035	-5,139	-21,191
2069	27,132	-5,497	-21,650
2070	27,181	-5,883	-22,118
2071	27,185	-6,303	-22,606

Projected natural increase, Queensland

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"-30000","axis_max":"40000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

In all series, arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive net overseas migration with between 24,200 and 38,000 people added each year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

In all series, interstate arrivals exceed departures for all years, resulting in a net interstate migration gain between 6,000 and 22,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), Queensland
Age	ERP - 2022 (%) (%)	High series - 2071 (%) (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%) (%)	Low series - 2071 (%) (%)
0	1.18	1.09	0.99	0.85
1	1.12	1.09	0.99	0.85
2	1.13	1.09	0.99	0.86
3	1.16	1.09	0.99	0.86
4	1.17	1.09	0.99	0.86
5	1.20	1.09	1.00	0.87
6	1.26	1.09	1.00	0.88
7	1.26	1.09	1.01	0.88
8	1.29	1.09	1.01	0.89
9	1.31	1.09	1.01	0.90
10	1.32	1.09	1.02	0.91
11	1.32	1.09	1.02	0.92
12	1.35	1.09	1.03	0.93
13	1.35	1.08	1.03	0.94
14	1.34	1.08	1.04	0.95
15	1.32	1.08	1.04	0.96
16	1.28	1.08	1.05	0.97
17	1.23	1.09	1.06	0.98
18	1.20	1.10	1.07	1.00
19	1.18	1.12	1.10	1.03
20	1.21	1.14	1.12	1.05
21	1.26	1.15	1.13	1.07
22	1.27	1.17	1.15	1.08
23	1.28	1.19	1.17	1.11
24	1.30	1.20	1.19	1.12
25	1.31	1.21	1.20	1.13
26	1.34	1.22	1.20	1.14
27	1.37	1.22	1.21	1.14
28	1.37	1.22	1.21	1.15
29	1.38	1.23	1.21	1.15
30	1.39	1.23	1.21	1.15
31	1.41	1.23	1.21	1.15
32	1.41	1.22	1.21	1.15
33	1.38	1.22	1.21	1.15
34	1.37	1.22	1.21	1.15
35	1.37	1.22	1.21	1.15
36	1.40	1.22	1.21	1.15
37	1.39	1.21	1.21	1.16
38	1.39	1.21	1.21	1.16
39	1.41	1.21	1.21	1.16
40	1.36	1.21	1.21	1.17
41	1.34	1.21	1.22	1.17
42	1.28	1.21	1.22	1.18
43	1.26	1.21	1.22	1.18
44	1.23	1.20	1.22	1.19
45	1.24	1.19	1.22	1.22
46	1.25	1.18	1.23	1.24
47	1.27	1.16	1.23	1.26
48	1.30	1.15	1.23	1.27
49	1.34	1.16	1.25	1.31
50	1.37	1.14	1.22	1.28
51	1.38	1.13	1.21	1.27
52	1.29	1.14	1.22	1.28
53	1.26	1.14	1.22	1.28
54	1.21	1.15	1.23	1.30
55	1.19	1.16	1.25	1.32
56	1.17	1.15	1.24	1.31
57	1.18	1.16	1.25	1.31
58	1.22	1.16	1.25	1.32
59	1.23	1.16	1.24	1.32
60	1.22	1.15	1.24	1.31
61	1.20	1.16	1.24	1.32
62	1.15	1.15	1.24	1.31
63	1.12	1.15	1.23	1.31
64	1.09	1.14	1.22	1.30
65	1.06	1.11	1.19	1.26
66	1.03	1.09	1.15	1.23
67	1.00	1.06	1.12	1.20
68	0.97	1.02	1.09	1.16
69	0.96	1.00	1.07	1.15
70	0.94	1.01	1.08	1.16
71	0.92	1.00	1.07	1.16
72	0.90	0.96	1.03	1.12
73	0.87	0.94	1.01	1.10
74	0.85	0.94	1.01	1.10
75	0.86	0.94	1.01	1.10
76	0.71	0.94	1.00	1.10
77	0.68	0.92	0.98	1.08
78	0.61	0.90	0.95	1.05
79	0.53	0.88	0.93	1.02
80	0.51	0.87	0.91	1.00
81	0.45	0.84	0.87	0.97
82	0.42	0.80	0.82	0.91
83	0.37	0.76	0.77	0.86
84	0.33	0.73	0.73	0.81

South Australia

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.72	88.1	91.0	15,675	-6,000
Medium series	1.57	83.6	86.8	12,825	-4,000
Low series	1.42	83.6	86.8	9,975	-2,500

Population size and change

South Australia's population of 1.8 million people is projected to:

increase by between 0% and 0.8% per year, a slower rate than that projected for all other states other than Tasmania
reach a population of between 1.8 million and 2.7 million people by 2071

Projected population, South Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2022	1,821,086	1,821,086	1,821,086	1,821,086	1,821,086
2023	1,855,718	1,852,496	1,849,032	1,848,282	1,856,468
2024	1,884,015	1,876,510	1,870,669	1,868,408	1,886,277
2025	1,909,974	1,898,425	1,889,824	1,885,531	1,914,271
2026	1,933,852	1,918,503	1,906,898	1,899,794	1,940,968
2027	1,955,410	1,936,426	1,921,691	1,910,987	1,966,147
2028	1,975,772	1,953,013	1,934,849	1,920,501	1,990,192
2029	1,994,843	1,968,295	1,946,654	1,928,611	2,013,010
2030	2,012,217	1,981,917	1,956,811	1,935,027	2,034,189
2031	2,028,266	1,994,208	1,965,602	1,940,034	2,054,101
2032	2,042,698	2,004,873	1,972,776	1,943,383	2,072,452
2033	2,056,810	2,015,054	1,979,435	1,946,177	2,090,536
2034	2,070,610	2,024,766	1,985,593	1,948,435	2,108,358
2035	2,084,112	2,034,028	1,991,267	1,950,176	2,125,931
2036	2,097,340	2,042,862	1,996,478	1,951,425	2,143,271
2037	2,110,310	2,051,269	2,001,229	1,952,187	2,160,396
2038	2,123,033	2,059,273	2,005,544	1,952,488	2,177,315
2039	2,135,528	2,066,897	2,009,449	1,952,357	2,194,038
2040	2,147,794	2,074,158	2,012,965	1,951,820	2,210,563
2041	2,159,830	2,081,071	2,016,108	1,950,896	2,226,884
2042	2,171,641	2,087,648	2,018,893	1,949,603	2,243,003
2043	2,183,232	2,093,896	2,021,332	1,947,959	2,258,920
2044	2,194,603	2,099,833	2,023,442	1,945,978	2,274,634
2045	2,205,758	2,105,467	2,025,234	1,943,676	2,290,144
2046	2,216,700	2,110,805	2,026,710	1,941,060	2,305,454
2047	2,227,439	2,115,856	2,027,875	1,938,136	2,320,568
2048	2,237,989	2,120,632	2,028,740	1,934,920	2,335,501
2049	2,248,355	2,125,138	2,029,303	1,931,411	2,350,257
2050	2,258,556	2,129,386	2,029,569	1,927,613	2,364,855
2051	2,268,610	2,133,395	2,029,549	1,923,538	2,379,313
2052	2,278,545	2,137,182	2,029,252	1,919,201	2,393,658
2053	2,288,387	2,140,773	2,028,695	1,914,617	2,407,920
2054	2,298,162	2,144,188	2,027,890	1,909,802	2,422,129
2055	2,307,898	2,147,452	2,026,852	1,904,772	2,436,307
2056	2,317,623	2,150,580	2,025,591	1,899,537	2,450,486
2057	2,327,359	2,153,595	2,024,124	1,894,117	2,464,686
2058	2,337,123	2,156,509	2,022,465	1,888,524	2,478,930
2059	2,346,934	2,159,333	2,020,624	1,882,772	2,493,234
2060	2,356,799	2,162,082	2,018,619	1,876,874	2,507,604
2061	2,366,724	2,164,761	2,016,462	1,870,848	2,522,048
2062	2,376,705	2,167,371	2,014,169	1,864,705	2,536,559
2063	2,386,736	2,169,913	2,011,744	1,858,453	2,551,130
2064	2,396,803	2,172,389	2,009,197	1,852,102	2,565,749
2065	2,406,898	2,174,793	2,006,533	1,845,655	2,580,404
2066	2,417,014	2,177,122	2,003,754	1,839,117	2,595,088
2067	2,427,139	2,179,367	2,000,858	1,832,487	2,609,787
2068	2,437,268	2,181,519	1,997,844	1,825,764	2,624,491
2069	2,447,380	2,183,571	1,994,709	1,818,943	2,639,181
2070	2,457,465	2,185,507	1,991,441	1,812,014	2,653,847
2071	2,467,504	2,187,311	1,988,029	1,804,967	2,668,466

Projected population, South Australia

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[1821086],[1855718],[1884015],[1909974],[1933852],[1955410],[1975772],[1994843],[2012217],[2028266],[2042698],[2056810],[2070610],[2084112],[2097340],[2110310],[2123033],[2135528],[2147794],[2159830],[2171641],[2183232],[2194603],[2205758],[2216700],[2227439],[2237989],[2248355],[2258556],[2268610],[2278545],[2288387],[2298162],[2307898],[2317623],[2327359],[2337123],[2346934],[2356799],[2366724],[2376705],[2386736],[2396803],[2406898],[2417014],[2427139],[2437268],[2447380],[2457465],[2467504]],[[1821086],[1852496],[1876510],[1898425],[1918503],[1936426],[1953013],[1968295],[1981917],[1994208],[2004873],[2015054],[2024766],[2034028],[2042862],[2051269],[2059273],[2066897],[2074158],[2081071],[2087648],[2093896],[2099833],[2105467],[2110805],[2115856],[2120632],[2125138],[2129386],[2133395],[2137182],[2140773],[2144188],[2147452],[2150580],[2153595],[2156509],[2159333],[2162082],[2164761],[2167371],[2169913],[2172389],[2174793],[2177122],[2179367],[2181519],[2183571],[2185507],[2187311]],[[1821086],[1849032],[1870669],[1889824],[1906898],[1921691],[1934849],[1946654],[1956811],[1965602],[1972776],[1979435],[1985593],[1991267],[1996478],[2001229],[2005544],[2009449],[2012965],[2016108],[2018893],[2021332],[2023442],[2025234],[2026710],[2027875],[2028740],[2029303],[2029569],[2029549],[2029252],[2028695],[2027890],[2026852],[2025591],[2024124],[2022465],[2020624],[2018619],[2016462],[2014169],[2011744],[2009197],[2006533],[2003754],[2000858],[1997844],[1994709],[1991441],[1988029]],[[1821086],[1848282],[1868408],[1885531],[1899794],[1910987],[1920501],[1928611],[1935027],[1940034],[1943383],[1946177],[1948435],[1950176],[1951425],[1952187],[1952488],[1952357],[1951820],[1950896],[1949603],[1947959],[1945978],[1943676],[1941060],[1938136],[1934920],[1931411],[1927613],[1923538],[1919201],[1914617],[1909802],[1904772],[1899537],[1894117],[1888524],[1882772],[1876874],[1870848],[1864705],[1858453],[1852102],[1845655],[1839117],[1832487],[1825764],[1818943],[1812014],[1804967]],[[1821086],[1856468],[1886277],[1914271],[1940968],[1966147],[1990192],[2013010],[2034189],[2054101],[2072452],[2090536],[2108358],[2125931],[2143271],[2160396],[2177315],[2194038],[2210563],[2226884],[2243003],[2258920],[2274634],[2290144],[2305454],[2320568],[2335501],[2350257],[2364855],[2379313],[2393658],[2407920],[2422129],[2436307],[2450486],[2464686],[2478930],[2493234],[2507604],[2522048],[2536559],[2551130],[2565749],[2580404],[2595088],[2609787],[2624491],[2639181],[2653847],[2668466]]]

[]

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Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows.

The largest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because South Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for South Australia is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

Under the:

high series, natural increase is projected for South Australia for the whole period
low and medium series, deaths will exceed births in South Australia from 2032 (low) and 2037 (medium)

Projected natural increase, South Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	4,061	4,061	4,061
2023	5,132	4,910	4,696
2024	5,422	4,779	4,151
2025	5,614	4,527	3,484
2026	5,755	4,221	2,747
2027	5,926	3,875	1,961
2028	5,887	3,514	1,339
2029	5,646	3,146	891
2030	5,374	2,742	416
2031	5,074	2,322	-74
2032	4,757	1,840	-626
2033	4,437	1,356	-1,181
2034	4,125	887	-1,717
2035	3,827	437	-2,234
2036	3,553	9	-2,726
2037	3,295	-418	-3,213
2038	3,048	-821	-3,674
2039	2,820	-1,201	-4,106
2040	2,591	-1,564	-4,512
2041	2,361	-1,912	-4,899
2042	2,136	-2,248	-5,268
2043	1,916	-2,577	-5,619
2044	1,696	-2,888	-5,956
2045	1,480	-3,191	-6,277
2046	1,267	-3,487	-6,591
2047	1,064	-3,774	-6,899
2048	875	-4,049	-7,191
2049	691	-4,319	-7,484
2050	526	-4,577	-7,773
2051	379	-4,816	-8,050
2052	260	-5,038	-8,312
2053	167	-5,234	-8,559
2054	100	-5,410	-8,790
2055	61	-5,561	-9,005
2056	50	-5,697	-9,210
2057	61	-5,810	-9,395
2058	89	-5,911	-9,568
2059	136	-6,001	-9,727
2060	190	-6,076	-9,873
2061	250	-6,146	-10,001
2062	306	-6,215	-10,118
2063	356	-6,283	-10,227
2064	392	-6,349	-10,326
2065	420	-6,421	-10,422
2066	441	-6,496	-10,513
2067	450	-6,580	-10,605
2068	454	-6,673	-10,698
2069	437	-6,773	-10,796
2070	410	-6,889	-10,904
2071	364	-7,021	-11,022

Projected natural increase, South Australia

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[4061],[5132],[5422],[5614],[5755],[5926],[5887],[5646],[5374],[5074],[4757],[4437],[4125],[3827],[3553],[3295],[3048],[2820],[2591],[2361],[2136],[1916],[1696],[1480],[1267],[1064],[875],[691],[526],[379],[260],[167],[100],[61],[50],[61],[89],[136],[190],[250],[306],[356],[392],[420],[441],[450],[454],[437],[410],[364]],[[4061],[4910],[4779],[4527],[4221],[3875],[3514],[3146],[2742],[2322],[1840],[1356],[887],[437],[9],[-418],[-821],[-1201],[-1564],[-1912],[-2248],[-2577],[-2888],[-3191],[-3487],[-3774],[-4049],[-4319],[-4577],[-4816],[-5038],[-5234],[-5410],[-5561],[-5697],[-5810],[-5911],[-6001],[-6076],[-6146],[-6215],[-6283],[-6349],[-6421],[-6496],[-6580],[-6673],[-6773],[-6889],[-7021]],[[4061],[4696],[4151],[3484],[2747],[1961],[1339],[891],[416],[-74],[-626],[-1181],[-1717],[-2234],[-2726],[-3213],[-3674],[-4106],[-4512],[-4899],[-5268],[-5619],[-5956],[-6277],[-6591],[-6899],[-7191],[-7484],[-7773],[-8050],[-8312],[-8559],[-8790],[-9005],[-9210],[-9395],[-9568],[-9727],[-9873],[-10001],[-10118],[-10227],[-10326],[-10422],[-10513],[-10605],[-10698],[-10796],[-10904],[-11022]]]

[]

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Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration is assumed to increase to 15,700 people per year under the high series and decline to 10,000 people per year under the low series, from 2032.

Net interstate migration

In all series, interstate departures will exceed interstate arrivals for all years, resulting in a net interstate migration loss for the entire period.
This loss is projected to be between 2,500 and 6,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), South Australia
Age	ERP - 2022 (%) (%)	High series - 2071 (%) (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%) (%)	Low series - 2071 (%) (%)
0	1.06	0.98	0.89	0.75
1	1.08	0.98	0.89	0.75
2	1.05	0.98	0.89	0.76
3	1.07	0.98	0.90	0.77
4	1.09	0.99	0.90	0.78
5	1.11	0.99	0.91	0.79
6	1.16	1.00	0.92	0.80
7	1.15	1.00	0.93	0.81
8	1.17	1.00	0.93	0.82
9	1.18	1.01	0.94	0.83
10	1.20	1.01	0.95	0.84
11	1.18	1.01	0.95	0.85
12	1.20	1.01	0.96	0.86
13	1.20	1.01	0.97	0.88
14	1.20	1.02	0.98	0.89
15	1.19	1.02	0.99	0.91
16	1.14	1.03	1.00	0.93
17	1.11	1.04	1.01	0.94
18	1.12	1.06	1.03	0.96
19	1.13	1.08	1.06	0.99
20	1.16	1.10	1.08	1.01
21	1.21	1.11	1.10	1.02
22	1.25	1.13	1.11	1.03
23	1.26	1.14	1.12	1.05
24	1.28	1.16	1.13	1.05
25	1.31	1.16	1.14	1.05
26	1.34	1.16	1.14	1.05
27	1.36	1.16	1.14	1.05
28	1.33	1.16	1.14	1.06
29	1.34	1.17	1.15	1.06
30	1.34	1.17	1.15	1.06
31	1.35	1.17	1.15	1.07
32	1.35	1.17	1.15	1.07
33	1.34	1.17	1.16	1.08
34	1.34	1.17	1.16	1.08
35	1.35	1.17	1.16	1.09
36	1.36	1.18	1.16	1.09
37	1.36	1.18	1.17	1.10
38	1.36	1.18	1.17	1.10
39	1.33	1.18	1.18	1.11
40	1.29	1.18	1.18	1.12
41	1.26	1.19	1.19	1.13
42	1.20	1.19	1.19	1.13
43	1.18	1.19	1.19	1.14
44	1.16	1.18	1.20	1.16
45	1.17	1.17	1.20	1.18
46	1.16	1.16	1.21	1.20
47	1.18	1.15	1.21	1.22
48	1.20	1.14	1.21	1.24
49	1.24	1.15	1.23	1.27
50	1.31	1.14	1.22	1.26
51	1.34	1.13	1.21	1.25
52	1.28	1.14	1.22	1.27
53	1.27	1.14	1.22	1.27
54	1.24	1.15	1.23	1.29
55	1.21	1.17	1.25	1.31
56	1.22	1.16	1.24	1.30
57	1.25	1.16	1.25	1.31
58	1.27	1.17	1.26	1.32
59	1.29	1.17	1.26	1.32
60	1.29	1.17	1.25	1.32
61	1.30	1.18	1.26	1.33
62	1.26	1.17	1.26	1.33
63	1.24	1.18	1.26	1.34
64	1.20	1.17	1.25	1.33
65	1.18	1.15	1.22	1.30
66	1.15	1.13	1.20	1.27
67	1.12	1.10	1.17	1.25
68	1.10	1.07	1.14	1.22
69	1.09	1.06	1.13	1.22
70	1.06	1.07	1.15	1.24
71	1.05	1.07	1.14	1.24
72	1.03	1.03	1.11	1.21
73	0.99	1.02	1.09	1.20
74	0.97	1.02	1.10	1.21
75	1.01	1.03	1.10	1.22
76	0.82	1.03	1.10	1.22
77	0.77	1.01	1.07	1.19
78	0.70	0.99	1.05	1.17
79	0.64	0.97	1.03	1.15
80	0.60	0.96	1.01	1.13
81	0.54	0.93	0.97	1.09
82	0.51	0.90	0.93	1.04
83	0.48	0.86	0.88	1.00
84	0.43	0.83	0.84	0.95

Western Australia

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.81	88.7	91.5	23,925	-12,000
Medium series	1.65	84.2	87.3	19,575	500
Low series	1.50	84.2	87.3	15,225	8,000

Population size and change

Western Australia's population of 2.8 million is projected to:

increase by between 0.1% and 1.2% per year
reach a population of between 2.9 million and 5.1 million by 2071

Projected population, Western Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2022	2,791,432	2,791,432	2,791,432	2,791,432	2,791,432
2023	2,843,690	2,842,644	2,840,616	2,835,616	2,848,690
2024	2,887,199	2,885,683	2,883,457	2,869,628	2,901,034
2025	2,927,365	2,926,972	2,924,795	2,898,748	2,953,443
2026	2,964,017	2,965,781	2,964,376	2,922,918	3,005,576
2027	2,995,199	3,002,188	3,002,066	2,939,978	3,057,527
2028	3,025,362	3,037,393	3,038,088	2,955,086	3,108,833
2029	3,054,306	3,071,412	3,072,837	2,968,630	3,159,285
2030	3,082,197	3,104,361	3,106,380	2,980,685	3,209,038
2031	3,108,810	3,136,066	3,138,573	2,991,118	3,257,863
2032	3,134,402	3,166,649	3,169,465	2,999,992	3,306,006
2033	3,159,547	3,196,692	3,199,820	3,008,080	3,354,027
2034	3,184,291	3,226,234	3,229,666	3,015,424	3,401,959
2035	3,208,673	3,255,311	3,259,033	3,022,065	3,449,832
2036	3,232,739	3,283,959	3,287,950	3,028,047	3,497,677
2037	3,256,516	3,312,172	3,316,408	3,033,373	3,545,506
2038	3,280,020	3,339,960	3,344,412	3,038,067	3,593,316
2039	3,303,248	3,367,328	3,371,969	3,042,150	3,641,092
2040	3,326,185	3,394,263	3,399,067	3,045,629	3,688,792
2041	3,348,807	3,420,750	3,425,690	3,048,507	3,736,372
2042	3,371,091	3,446,761	3,451,811	3,050,777	3,783,785
2043	3,393,022	3,472,271	3,477,403	3,052,436	3,830,994
2044	3,414,574	3,497,261	3,502,445	3,053,480	3,877,952
2045	3,435,724	3,521,719	3,526,917	3,053,906	3,924,625
2046	3,456,457	3,545,614	3,550,786	3,053,698	3,970,978
2047	3,476,764	3,568,931	3,574,025	3,052,848	4,016,992
2048	3,496,653	3,591,674	3,596,627	3,051,358	4,062,666
2049	3,516,123	3,613,834	3,618,574	3,049,226	4,107,995
2050	3,535,182	3,635,411	3,639,849	3,046,448	4,152,981
2051	3,553,853	3,656,415	3,660,448	3,043,033	4,197,650
2052	3,572,165	3,676,867	3,680,371	3,038,990	4,242,033
2053	3,590,159	3,696,793	3,699,631	3,034,342	4,286,172
2054	3,607,862	3,716,224	3,718,235	3,029,107	4,330,099
2055	3,625,324	3,735,194	3,736,201	3,023,313	4,373,873
2056	3,642,588	3,753,737	3,753,546	3,016,986	4,417,540
2057	3,659,700	3,771,886	3,770,294	3,010,157	4,461,154
2058	3,676,696	3,789,690	3,786,481	3,002,863	4,504,754
2059	3,693,618	3,807,171	3,802,133	2,995,134	4,548,388
2060	3,710,489	3,824,371	3,817,294	2,987,013	4,592,083
2061	3,727,332	3,841,315	3,832,007	2,978,536	4,635,863
2062	3,744,161	3,858,028	3,846,303	2,969,740	4,679,737
2063	3,760,981	3,874,527	3,860,218	2,960,658	4,723,707
2064	3,777,786	3,890,827	3,873,781	2,951,322	4,767,759
2065	3,794,575	3,906,935	3,887,016	2,941,757	4,811,882
2066	3,811,354	3,922,854	3,899,935	2,931,978	4,856,072
2067	3,828,115	3,938,588	3,912,559	2,922,005	4,900,313
2068	3,844,857	3,954,134	3,924,889	2,911,843	4,944,601
2069	3,861,569	3,969,490	3,936,935	2,901,504	4,988,919
2070	3,878,236	3,984,643	3,948,685	2,890,984	5,033,241
2071	3,894,852	3,999,577	3,960,130	2,880,279	5,077,555

Projected population, Western Australia

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

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[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":"5500000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Results from low assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with small interstate migration flows.
Results from high assumptions for fertility, mortality and overseas migration, with large interstate migration flows.

The largest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because Western Australia experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for Western Australia is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

In the high series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths for Western Australia.
In the low and medium series, deaths will exceed births in 2048 (low) and 2053 (medium).

Projected natural increase, Western Australia
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	16,753	16,753	16,753
2023	14,958	14,612	14,284
2024	15,384	14,414	13,387
2025	15,687	14,108	12,349
2026	16,075	13,932	11,400
2027	16,142	13,347	10,020
2028	15,838	12,754	8,883
2029	15,252	12,178	8,061
2030	14,691	11,617	7,255
2031	14,158	11,080	6,469
2032	13,667	10,508	5,649
2033	13,220	9,968	4,863
2034	12,819	9,467	4,119
2035	12,457	9,002	3,416
2036	12,141	8,573	2,757
2037	11,852	8,138	2,101
2038	11,579	7,713	1,469
2039	11,303	7,293	858
2040	11,012	6,860	254
2041	10,697	6,412	-347
2042	10,359	5,936	-955
2043	10,006	5,435	-1,566
2044	9,627	4,915	-2,181
2045	9,225	4,383	-2,799
2046	8,808	3,820	-3,433
2047	8,382	3,242	-4,075
2048	7,964	2,668	-4,715
2049	7,545	2,085	-5,357
2050	7,134	1,502	-6,003
2051	6,746	929	-6,640
2052	6,387	377	-7,268
2053	6,069	-149	-7,873
2054	5,778	-644	-8,460
2055	5,537	-1,105	-9,019
2056	5,339	-1,532	-9,552
2057	5,187	-1,926	-10,054
2058	5,071	-2,271	-10,519
2059	4,997	-2,594	-10,954
2060	4,946	-2,875	-11,346
2061	4,918	-3,131	-11,702
2062	4,904	-3,362	-12,021
2063	4,895	-3,576	-12,307
2064	4,880	-3,775	-12,561
2065	4,864	-3,967	-12,790
2066	4,854	-4,156	-13,004
2067	4,836	-4,341	-13,198
2068	4,817	-4,529	-13,387
2069	4,787	-4,719	-13,564
2070	4,742	-4,922	-13,745
2071	4,691	-5,141	-13,930

Projected natural increase, Western Australia

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[16753],[14958],[15384],[15687],[16075],[16142],[15838],[15252],[14691],[14158],[13667],[13220],[12819],[12457],[12141],[11852],[11579],[11303],[11012],[10697],[10359],[10006],[9627],[9225],[8808],[8382],[7964],[7545],[7134],[6746],[6387],[6069],[5778],[5537],[5339],[5187],[5071],[4997],[4946],[4918],[4904],[4895],[4880],[4864],[4854],[4836],[4817],[4787],[4742],[4691]],[[16753],[14612],[14414],[14108],[13932],[13347],[12754],[12178],[11617],[11080],[10508],[9968],[9467],[9002],[8573],[8138],[7713],[7293],[6860],[6412],[5936],[5435],[4915],[4383],[3820],[3242],[2668],[2085],[1502],[929],[377],[-149],[-644],[-1105],[-1532],[-1926],[-2271],[-2594],[-2875],[-3131],[-3362],[-3576],[-3775],[-3967],[-4156],[-4341],[-4529],[-4719],[-4922],[-5141]],[[16753],[14284],[13387],[12349],[11400],[10020],[8883],[8061],[7255],[6469],[5649],[4863],[4119],[3416],[2757],[2101],[1469],[858],[254],[-347],[-955],[-1566],[-2181],[-2799],[-3433],[-4075],[-4715],[-5357],[-6003],[-6640],[-7268],[-7873],[-8460],[-9019],[-9552],[-10054],[-10519],[-10954],[-11346],[-11702],[-12021],[-12307],[-12561],[-12790],[-13004],[-13198],[-13387],[-13564],[-13745],[-13930]]]

[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"-20000","axis_max":"20000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 15,200 and 23,900 people from 2032.

Net interstate migration

Under the high assumption, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 12,000 people annually from 2027.
Under the medium and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to gain 500 and 8,000 people per year respectively from 2027.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), Western Australia
Age	ERP - 2022 (%) (%)	High series - 2071 (%) (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%) (%)	Low series - 2071 (%) (%)
0	1.20	1.06	0.96	0.81
1	1.20	1.06	0.96	0.81
2	1.20	1.06	0.96	0.81
3	1.23	1.06	0.96	0.82
4	1.26	1.06	0.97	0.82
5	1.29	1.06	0.97	0.83
6	1.32	1.06	0.98	0.84
7	1.29	1.06	0.98	0.84
8	1.30	1.06	0.98	0.85
9	1.30	1.06	0.99	0.86
10	1.30	1.06	0.99	0.87
11	1.30	1.06	0.99	0.88
12	1.30	1.05	1.00	0.89
13	1.28	1.05	1.00	0.90
14	1.30	1.05	1.01	0.92
15	1.28	1.05	1.01	0.93
16	1.22	1.05	1.02	0.94
17	1.16	1.05	1.02	0.95
18	1.14	1.06	1.04	0.97
19	1.12	1.08	1.06	1.00
20	1.13	1.10	1.08	1.02
21	1.17	1.11	1.10	1.03
22	1.20	1.13	1.11	1.04
23	1.23	1.15	1.13	1.06
24	1.24	1.16	1.15	1.07
25	1.27	1.18	1.16	1.09
26	1.31	1.19	1.18	1.10
27	1.35	1.20	1.19	1.11
28	1.37	1.21	1.20	1.11
29	1.37	1.22	1.20	1.12
30	1.40	1.23	1.21	1.12
31	1.47	1.23	1.21	1.12
32	1.49	1.23	1.21	1.12
33	1.51	1.23	1.21	1.12
34	1.51	1.23	1.21	1.12
35	1.53	1.23	1.21	1.12
36	1.54	1.23	1.21	1.12
37	1.53	1.23	1.21	1.12
38	1.52	1.23	1.22	1.13
39	1.51	1.23	1.22	1.13
40	1.45	1.23	1.22	1.14
41	1.42	1.23	1.22	1.14
42	1.34	1.22	1.22	1.15
43	1.31	1.22	1.22	1.15
44	1.28	1.22	1.23	1.17
45	1.26	1.20	1.23	1.19
46	1.27	1.19	1.23	1.21
47	1.27	1.18	1.23	1.23
48	1.27	1.16	1.23	1.25
49	1.30	1.17	1.25	1.28
50	1.36	1.16	1.24	1.27
51	1.38	1.15	1.23	1.26
52	1.29	1.16	1.24	1.28
53	1.28	1.16	1.24	1.28
54	1.23	1.17	1.25	1.29
55	1.19	1.18	1.26	1.31
56	1.19	1.17	1.25	1.30
57	1.19	1.17	1.25	1.30
58	1.21	1.17	1.25	1.30
59	1.21	1.16	1.24	1.30
60	1.18	1.16	1.24	1.29
61	1.17	1.16	1.24	1.30
62	1.13	1.15	1.23	1.29
63	1.10	1.15	1.23	1.29
64	1.06	1.14	1.22	1.28
65	1.03	1.11	1.18	1.25
66	1.02	1.08	1.15	1.21
67	0.97	1.05	1.12	1.19
68	0.93	1.01	1.08	1.16
69	0.91	0.99	1.06	1.14
70	0.89	1.00	1.07	1.16
71	0.87	0.99	1.06	1.16
72	0.83	0.96	1.03	1.14
73	0.81	0.94	1.01	1.13
74	0.80	0.94	1.01	1.13
75	0.80	0.94	1.01	1.14
76	0.63	0.94	1.01	1.15
77	0.59	0.92	0.99	1.13
78	0.56	0.90	0.96	1.11
79	0.49	0.88	0.94	1.09
80	0.48	0.88	0.93	1.09
81	0.42	0.86	0.90	1.06
82	0.40	0.83	0.87	1.02
83	0.37	0.80	0.83	0.98
84	0.33	0.77	0.79	0.94

Tasmania

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.78	87.0	89.7	2,750	2,500
Medium series	1.62	82.6	85.5	2,250	0
Low series	1.47	82.6	85.5	1,750	-2,500

Population size and change

Tasmania's population of 571,000 people is projected to:

increase to 843,300 and 609,900 respectively in 2071 under high and medium series
decline to 425,400 by 2071 under the low assumption

Projected population, Tasmania
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	571,007	571,007	571,007
2023	578,966	577,599	576,237
2024	586,522	582,743	579,805
2025	594,302	587,537	582,413
2026	602,268	591,944	583,756
2027	610,651	596,331	584,420
2028	618,535	600,157	584,446
2029	625,873	603,419	583,908
2030	632,960	606,366	583,008
2031	639,516	608,772	581,573
2032	645,552	610,633	579,607
2033	651,489	612,310	577,433
2034	657,333	613,817	575,063
2035	663,092	615,163	572,511
2036	668,769	616,358	569,788
2037	674,373	617,404	566,898
2038	679,907	618,313	563,854
2039	685,378	619,094	560,669
2040	690,784	619,759	557,357
2041	696,124	620,311	553,926
2042	701,398	620,756	550,384
2043	706,606	621,100	546,741
2044	711,750	621,347	543,002
2045	716,831	621,503	539,173
2046	721,852	621,573	535,261
2047	726,817	621,560	531,272
2048	731,731	621,471	527,212
2049	736,598	621,314	523,085
2050	741,426	621,091	518,894
2051	746,221	620,809	514,648
2052	750,992	620,476	510,353
2053	755,749	620,100	506,016
2054	760,502	619,691	501,646
2055	765,260	619,255	497,248
2056	770,031	618,798	492,829
2057	774,821	618,325	488,391
2058	779,633	617,834	483,938
2059	784,468	617,329	479,472
2060	789,327	616,808	474,995
2061	794,207	616,272	470,509
2062	799,107	615,722	466,015
2063	804,023	615,161	461,516
2064	808,950	614,582	457,014
2065	813,885	613,987	452,511
2066	818,824	613,372	448,006
2067	823,760	612,736	443,497
2068	828,685	612,070	438,981
2069	833,594	611,372	434,455
2070	838,480	610,634	429,917
2071	843,336	609,850	425,362

Projected population, Tasmania

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[571007],[578966],[586522],[594302],[602268],[610651],[618535],[625873],[632960],[639516],[645552],[651489],[657333],[663092],[668769],[674373],[679907],[685378],[690784],[696124],[701398],[706606],[711750],[716831],[721852],[726817],[731731],[736598],[741426],[746221],[750992],[755749],[760502],[765260],[770031],[774821],[779633],[784468],[789327],[794207],[799107],[804023],[808950],[813885],[818824],[823760],[828685],[833594],[838480],[843336]],[[571007],[577599],[582743],[587537],[591944],[596331],[600157],[603419],[606366],[608772],[610633],[612310],[613817],[615163],[616358],[617404],[618313],[619094],[619759],[620311],[620756],[621100],[621347],[621503],[621573],[621560],[621471],[621314],[621091],[620809],[620476],[620100],[619691],[619255],[618798],[618325],[617834],[617329],[616808],[616272],[615722],[615161],[614582],[613987],[613372],[612736],[612070],[611372],[610634],[609850]],[[571007],[576237],[579805],[582413],[583756],[584420],[584446],[583908],[583008],[581573],[579607],[577433],[575063],[572511],[569788],[566898],[563854],[560669],[557357],[553926],[550384],[546741],[543002],[539173],[535261],[531272],[527212],[523085],[518894],[514648],[510353],[506016],[501646],[497248],[492829],[488391],[483938],[479472],[474995],[470509],[466015],[461516],[457014],[452511],[448006],[443497],[438981],[434455],[429917],[425362]]]

[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"400000","axis_max":"900000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Natural increase

Under all assumptions, the number of deaths will exceed births for most years, leading to natural decrease for Tasmania for these years.
Natural decrease is projected from 2027 (low series) and 2043 (high series).

Projected natural increase, Tasmania
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	837	837	837
2023	1,009	942	880
2024	1,056	854	680
2025	1,079	729	447
2026	1,061	551	169
2027	1,151	439	-41
2028	1,159	303	-214
2029	1,078	139	-358
2030	987	-29	-510
2031	891	-199	-664
2032	786	-389	-838
2033	687	-573	-1,007
2034	594	-743	-1,166
2035	509	-904	-1,319
2036	427	-1,055	-1,463
2037	354	-1,204	-1,607
2038	284	-1,341	-1,741
2039	221	-1,469	-1,864
2040	156	-1,585	-1,982
2041	90	-1,698	-2,092
2042	24	-1,805	-2,202
2043	-42	-1,906	-2,308
2044	-106	-2,003	-2,410
2045	-169	-2,094	-2,511
2046	-229	-2,180	-2,611
2047	-285	-2,263	-2,707
2048	-336	-2,339	-2,800
2049	-383	-2,407	-2,894
2050	-422	-2,473	-2,984
2051	-455	-2,532	-3,071
2052	-479	-2,583	-3,151
2053	-493	-2,626	-3,225
2054	-497	-2,659	-3,294
2055	-492	-2,686	-3,360
2056	-479	-2,707	-3,420
2057	-460	-2,723	-3,480
2058	-438	-2,741	-3,537
2059	-415	-2,755	-3,593
2060	-391	-2,771	-3,647
2061	-370	-2,786	-3,699
2062	-350	-2,800	-3,746
2063	-334	-2,811	-3,792
2064	-323	-2,829	-3,839
2065	-315	-2,845	-3,881
2066	-311	-2,865	-3,928
2067	-314	-2,886	-3,976
2068	-325	-2,916	-4,027
2069	-341	-2,948	-4,082
2070	-364	-2,988	-4,143
2071	-394	-3,034	-4,210

Projected natural increase, Tasmania

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[837],[1009],[1056],[1079],[1061],[1151],[1159],[1078],[987],[891],[786],[687],[594],[509],[427],[354],[284],[221],[156],[90],[24],[-42],[-106],[-169],[-229],[-285],[-336],[-383],[-422],[-455],[-479],[-493],[-497],[-492],[-479],[-460],[-438],[-415],[-391],[-370],[-350],[-334],[-323],[-315],[-311],[-314],[-325],[-341],[-364],[-394]],[[837],[942],[854],[729],[551],[439],[303],[139],[-29],[-199],[-389],[-573],[-743],[-904],[-1055],[-1204],[-1341],[-1469],[-1585],[-1698],[-1805],[-1906],[-2003],[-2094],[-2180],[-2263],[-2339],[-2407],[-2473],[-2532],[-2583],[-2626],[-2659],[-2686],[-2707],[-2723],[-2741],[-2755],[-2771],[-2786],[-2800],[-2811],[-2829],[-2845],[-2865],[-2886],[-2916],[-2948],[-2988],[-3034]],[[837],[880],[680],[447],[169],[-41],[-214],[-358],[-510],[-664],[-838],[-1007],[-1166],[-1319],[-1463],[-1607],[-1741],[-1864],[-1982],[-2092],[-2202],[-2308],[-2410],[-2511],[-2611],[-2707],[-2800],[-2894],[-2984],[-3071],[-3151],[-3225],[-3294],[-3360],[-3420],[-3480],[-3537],[-3593],[-3647],[-3699],[-3746],[-3792],[-3839],[-3881],[-3928],[-3976],[-4027],[-4082],[-4143],[-4210]]]

[]

[{"axis_id":"0","tick_interval":"7","axis_min":"","axis_max":"","axis_title":"","precision":-1,"axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"-5000","axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

Overseas arrivals are projected to exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive net overseas migration between 1,800 and 2,800 people per year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

Under the high and low assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain of 2,500 and loss of 2,500 people per year respectively from 2027.
Under the medium assumption, net interstate migration is projected to be zero (arrivals equal departures) from 2027.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), Tasmania
Age	ERP - 2022 (%)	High series - 2071 (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%)	Low series - 2071 (%)
0	1.01	0.96	0.85	0.69
1	1.03	0.96	0.86	0.70
2	1.02	0.97	0.86	0.71
3	1.03	0.97	0.87	0.72
4	1.04	0.98	0.88	0.73
5	1.07	0.98	0.89	0.75
6	1.12	0.99	0.90	0.76
7	1.11	0.99	0.90	0.77
8	1.14	1.00	0.91	0.78
9	1.14	1.00	0.92	0.79
10	1.14	1.00	0.93	0.81
11	1.19	1.00	0.94	0.82
12	1.17	1.00	0.94	0.84
13	1.23	1.01	0.95	0.85
14	1.21	1.01	0.96	0.87
15	1.21	1.01	0.97	0.89
16	1.16	1.02	0.98	0.91
17	1.11	1.03	1.00	0.91
18	1.05	1.04	1.01	0.91
19	1.01	1.05	1.02	0.92
20	1.01	1.07	1.03	0.93
21	1.06	1.07	1.04	0.93
22	1.10	1.08	1.05	0.94
23	1.13	1.10	1.06	0.94
24	1.13	1.11	1.07	0.95
25	1.23	1.11	1.07	0.96
26	1.32	1.12	1.08	0.96
27	1.43	1.13	1.09	0.97
28	1.45	1.14	1.10	0.98
29	1.44	1.15	1.11	0.99
30	1.45	1.16	1.12	1.00
31	1.46	1.16	1.13	1.01
32	1.42	1.17	1.13	1.01
33	1.37	1.17	1.13	1.02
34	1.33	1.16	1.13	1.02
35	1.30	1.16	1.13	1.03
36	1.30	1.16	1.13	1.03
37	1.29	1.16	1.13	1.04
38	1.25	1.16	1.14	1.04
39	1.21	1.16	1.14	1.05
40	1.22	1.16	1.14	1.06
41	1.17	1.16	1.15	1.07
42	1.11	1.16	1.15	1.08
43	1.12	1.17	1.16	1.09
44	1.10	1.16	1.17	1.10
45	1.08	1.15	1.17	1.13
46	1.13	1.14	1.18	1.16
47	1.14	1.13	1.19	1.19
48	1.18	1.12	1.19	1.21
49	1.23	1.14	1.22	1.25
50	1.30	1.13	1.20	1.24
51	1.35	1.12	1.20	1.24
52	1.29	1.14	1.22	1.26
53	1.29	1.14	1.22	1.27
54	1.24	1.16	1.24	1.29
55	1.23	1.18	1.26	1.32
56	1.19	1.17	1.26	1.32
57	1.26	1.18	1.27	1.34
58	1.36	1.19	1.29	1.35
59	1.37	1.20	1.29	1.36
60	1.43	1.20	1.29	1.37
61	1.42	1.21	1.31	1.39
62	1.37	1.22	1.31	1.40
63	1.35	1.22	1.32	1.41
64	1.32	1.22	1.31	1.41
65	1.30	1.20	1.29	1.38
66	1.28	1.17	1.26	1.35
67	1.23	1.15	1.23	1.33
68	1.20	1.11	1.20	1.30
69	1.20	1.10	1.19	1.30
70	1.18	1.11	1.21	1.33
71	1.14	1.11	1.20	1.33
72	1.12	1.08	1.17	1.30
73	1.05	1.06	1.15	1.29
74	1.06	1.07	1.17	1.31
75	1.09	1.08	1.18	1.33
76	0.86	1.09	1.19	1.35
77	0.80	1.08	1.17	1.34
78	0.76	1.06	1.14	1.31
79	0.66	1.03	1.12	1.29
80	0.63	1.02	1.10	1.27
81	0.56	0.99	1.05	1.23
82	0.53	0.94	0.99	1.16
83	0.48	0.90	0.93	1.10
84	0.43	0.85	0.88	1.04

Northern Territory

Assumptions

	Total fertility rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth(b)	Female life expectancy at birth(b)	Net overseas migration(c)	Net interstate migration(a)
High series	1.92	82.6	86.1	2,200	-3,000
Medium series	1.75	78.4	82.1	1,800	-1,500
Low series	1.59	78.4	82.1	1,400	1,000

Population size and change

The Northern Territory's population of 250,200 people is projected to:

increase by up to 1.6% per year (high) or experience a small decrease of 0.1% per year (low)
reach a population between 234,300 and 566,200 by 2071

Projected population, Northern Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series	Smallest population(a)	Largest population(b)
2022	250,233	250,233	250,233	250,233	250,233
2023	255,583	254,943	254,554	254,304	255,833
2024	259,704	258,284	258,593	257,090	261,207
2025	263,224	261,705	262,896	259,119	267,003
2026	266,262	265,156	267,695	260,615	273,354
2027	269,203	268,702	273,027	261,855	280,409
2028	272,007	272,098	278,179	262,867	287,391
2029	274,333	275,082	282,973	263,481	293,952
2030	276,493	277,911	287,621	263,910	300,400
2031	278,212	280,359	291,943	263,977	306,453
2032	279,789	282,669	296,131	263,879	312,412
2033	281,330	284,941	300,289	263,723	318,379
2034	282,844	287,180	304,425	263,514	324,360
2035	284,338	289,390	308,541	263,260	330,360
2036	285,818	291,579	312,643	262,966	336,386
2037	287,291	293,751	316,733	262,637	342,443
2038	288,758	295,909	320,812	262,278	348,533
2039	290,221	298,055	324,882	261,890	354,655
2040	291,679	300,188	328,944	261,472	360,809
2041	293,135	302,310	332,996	261,027	366,992
2042	294,587	304,417	337,035	260,556	373,203
2043	296,033	306,510	341,059	260,055	379,441
2044	297,471	308,586	345,067	259,523	385,702
2045	298,902	310,644	349,054	258,962	391,984
2046	300,325	312,682	353,017	258,367	398,285
2047	301,743	314,701	356,952	257,738	404,606
2048	303,152	316,699	360,857	257,077	410,947
2049	304,554	318,675	364,730	256,383	417,308
2050	305,951	320,630	368,571	255,655	423,690
2051	307,346	322,565	372,377	254,894	430,092
2052	308,737	324,482	376,148	254,100	436,518
2053	310,130	326,378	379,881	253,273	442,970
2054	311,526	328,256	383,576	252,415	449,451
2055	312,925	330,118	387,232	251,525	455,966
2056	314,333	331,964	390,850	250,604	462,516
2057	315,753	333,798	394,429	249,653	469,105
2058	317,186	335,620	397,971	248,674	475,738
2059	318,635	337,432	401,478	247,670	482,419
2060	320,102	339,236	404,949	246,641	489,148
2061	321,587	341,036	408,389	245,591	495,928
2062	323,090	342,832	411,800	244,522	502,758
2063	324,610	344,621	415,182	243,433	509,636
2064	326,144	346,403	418,538	242,327	516,560
2065	327,692	348,180	421,869	241,205	523,526
2066	329,251	349,952	425,178	240,070	530,535
2067	330,821	351,722	428,467	238,924	537,586
2068	332,404	353,489	431,742	237,768	544,680
2069	334,000	355,256	435,006	236,604	551,816
2070	335,608	357,024	438,257	235,432	558,994
2071	337,229	358,795	441,498	234,257	566,213

Projected population, Northern Territory

["","High series","Medium series","Low series","Smallest population(a)","Largest population(b)"]

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[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":null,"axis_max":"600000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

The largest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining the small flows interstate migration assumption with the high assumption for other components. This is because the Northern Territory experiences negative interstate migration, so smaller flows leads to smaller migration loss. Conversely, the smallest projected population for the Northern Territory is obtained by combining the large flows interstate migration assumption with the low assumption for other components.

Natural increase

In the three series, the number of births will continue to exceed deaths, resulting in natural increase for the Northern Territory.

Projected natural increase, Northern Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	2,302	2,302	2,302
2023	2,450	2,410	2,371
2024	2,496	2,376	2,261
2025	2,523	2,324	2,133
2026	2,534	2,268	1,994
2027	2,561	2,226	1,860
2028	2,554	2,186	1,762
2029	2,506	2,142	1,695
2030	2,460	2,097	1,629
2031	2,417	2,054	1,564
2032	2,377	2,010	1,502
2033	2,341	1,972	1,444
2034	2,314	1,939	1,391
2035	2,294	1,910	1,346
2036	2,280	1,889	1,306
2037	2,273	1,872	1,271
2038	2,267	1,858	1,241
2039	2,263	1,846	1,212
2040	2,258	1,833	1,182
2041	2,256	1,822	1,155
2042	2,252	1,807	1,129
2043	2,246	1,793	1,099
2044	2,238	1,776	1,068
2045	2,231	1,758	1,039
2046	2,223	1,738	1,005
2047	2,218	1,719	971
2048	2,209	1,698	939
2049	2,202	1,676	906
2050	2,197	1,655	872
2051	2,195	1,635	839
2052	2,191	1,617	806
2053	2,193	1,596	773
2054	2,196	1,578	742
2055	2,199	1,562	710
2056	2,208	1,546	679
2057	2,220	1,534	649
2058	2,233	1,522	621
2059	2,249	1,512	596
2060	2,267	1,504	571
2061	2,285	1,500	550
2062	2,303	1,496	531
2063	2,320	1,489	511
2064	2,334	1,482	494
2065	2,348	1,477	478
2066	2,359	1,472	465
2067	2,370	1,470	454
2068	2,383	1,467	444
2069	2,396	1,467	436
2070	2,408	1,468	428
2071	2,421	1,471	425

Projected natural increase, Northern Territory

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

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[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"","table_units":"","axis_min":"0","axis_max":"3000","tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Net overseas migration

In all series, overseas arrivals will exceed departures resulting in positive net overseas migration between 2,200 and 1,400 people per year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

Under the medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,500 and 3,000 people per year respectively from 2027.
Under the low assumption, net interstate migration is projected to gain 1,000 annually people from 2027.

Population by age

Population proportion(a), Northern Territory
Age	ERP - 2022 (%)	High series - 2071 (%)	Medium series - 2071 (%)	Low series - 2071 (%)
0	1.41	1.32	1.20	1.06
1	1.40	1.31	1.20	1.06
2	1.36	1.30	1.19	1.06
3	1.39	1.30	1.19	1.06
4	1.37	1.29	1.19	1.06
5	1.41	1.29	1.19	1.07
6	1.43	1.28	1.19	1.07
7	1.44	1.28	1.19	1.08
8	1.41	1.27	1.19	1.09
9	1.45	1.26	1.19	1.09
10	1.45	1.25	1.18	1.09
11	1.40	1.24	1.18	1.09
12	1.39	1.22	1.17	1.09
13	1.33	1.21	1.17	1.10
14	1.35	1.20	1.17	1.10
15	1.26	1.19	1.16	1.11
16	1.24	1.18	1.16	1.11
17	1.22	1.17	1.15	1.10
18	1.22	1.17	1.15	1.10
19	1.25	1.17	1.15	1.10
20	1.22	1.18	1.16	1.11
21	1.26	1.19	1.17	1.12
22	1.29	1.21	1.20	1.14
23	1.43	1.26	1.25	1.20
24	1.57	1.31	1.31	1.26
25	1.65	1.37	1.37	1.33
26	1.78	1.42	1.42	1.38
27	1.86	1.46	1.46	1.42
28	1.90	1.50	1.50	1.46
29	1.95	1.53	1.53	1.49
30	1.94	1.55	1.56	1.51
31	2.01	1.56	1.56	1.51
32	1.97	1.56	1.56	1.50
33	1.87	1.56	1.55	1.50
34	1.83	1.55	1.54	1.49
35	1.77	1.54	1.53	1.48
36	1.75	1.52	1.52	1.47
37	1.69	1.51	1.51	1.46
38	1.67	1.49	1.49	1.44
39	1.59	1.47	1.47	1.43
40	1.50	1.46	1.46	1.42
41	1.48	1.45	1.45	1.42
42	1.40	1.43	1.44	1.41
43	1.38	1.41	1.42	1.40
44	1.28	1.39	1.41	1.39
45	1.27	1.36	1.40	1.41
46	1.26	1.33	1.39	1.42
47	1.24	1.30	1.37	1.42
48	1.25	1.27	1.35	1.42
49	1.28	1.27	1.36	1.44
50	1.28	1.24	1.33	1.41
51	1.34	1.22	1.30	1.38
52	1.29	1.22	1.30	1.38
53	1.23	1.21	1.29	1.37
54	1.17	1.20	1.28	1.37
55	1.14	1.20	1.29	1.37
56	1.11	1.18	1.26	1.35
57	1.07	1.17	1.25	1.33
58	1.06	1.16	1.23	1.32
59	1.07	1.14	1.21	1.29
60	1.04	1.12	1.19	1.27
61	1.01	1.10	1.17	1.25
62	0.93	1.08	1.14	1.22
63	0.91	1.06	1.12	1.19
64	0.84	1.03	1.08	1.15
65	0.82	0.98	1.03	1.09
66	0.76	0.93	0.97	1.03
67	0.70	0.88	0.92	0.98
68	0.67	0.83	0.87	0.93
69	0.62	0.79	0.83	0.89
70	0.57	0.78	0.81	0.88
71	0.55	0.75	0.78	0.84
72	0.53	0.70	0.73	0.79
73	0.46	0.67	0.69	0.76
74	0.43	0.65	0.67	0.73
75	0.42	0.63	0.65	0.72
76	0.33	0.61	0.63	0.70
77	0.28	0.58	0.59	0.65
78	0.25	0.55	0.55	0.62
79	0.22	0.52	0.52	0.58
80	0.22	0.49	0.49	0.55
81	0.21	0.46	0.45	0.51
82	0.18	0.42	0.41	0.47
83	0.12	0.39	0.38	0.43
84	0.12	0.36	0.34	0.39

Australian Capital Territory

Assumptions

Population size and change

The Australian Capital Territory’s population of 456,900 people is projected to:

increase between 0.5% and 1.6% per year
reach between 578,700 and 994,500 by 2071

Projected population, Australian Capital Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	456,889	456,889	456,889
2023	464,971	464,310	462,908
2024	474,099	471,244	467,989
2025	483,993	478,387	472,924
2026	494,934	485,961	478,376
2027	507,011	494,017	483,667
2028	518,917	501,805	488,575
2029	530,601	509,312	493,157
2030	542,034	516,513	497,391
2031	553,230	523,424	501,292
2032	564,190	530,033	504,846
2033	575,128	536,543	508,274
2034	586,055	542,966	511,585
2035	596,982	549,311	514,790
2036	607,923	555,592	517,900
2037	618,883	561,814	520,924
2038	629,870	567,987	523,870
2039	640,890	574,116	526,748
2040	651,933	580,201	529,555
2041	662,991	586,237	532,288
2042	674,063	592,221	534,950
2043	685,139	598,149	537,540
2044	696,213	604,021	540,057
2045	707,284	609,839	542,505
2046	718,345	615,598	544,882
2047	729,390	621,295	547,185
2048	740,414	626,923	549,410
2049	751,417	632,484	551,554
2050	762,397	637,972	553,615
2051	773,352	643,386	555,590
2052	784,286	648,727	557,475
2053	795,202	653,994	559,267
2054	806,107	659,185	560,966
2055	817,008	664,309	562,575
2056	827,912	669,367	564,093
2057	838,829	674,364	565,523
2058	849,767	679,307	566,871
2059	860,732	684,201	568,140
2060	871,733	689,053	569,338
2061	882,772	693,865	570,468
2062	893,844	698,637	571,532
2063	904,945	703,369	572,533
2064	916,069	708,059	573,473
2065	927,207	712,702	574,353
2066	938,364	717,304	575,179
2067	949,541	721,871	575,958
2068	960,740	726,406	576,695
2069	971,965	730,914	577,399
2070	983,219	735,397	578,074
2071	994,493	739,856	578,717

Projected population, Australian Capital Territory

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[456889],[464971],[474099],[483993],[494934],[507011],[518917],[530601],[542034],[553230],[564190],[575128],[586055],[596982],[607923],[618883],[629870],[640890],[651933],[662991],[674063],[685139],[696213],[707284],[718345],[729390],[740414],[751417],[762397],[773352],[784286],[795202],[806107],[817008],[827912],[838829],[849767],[860732],[871733],[882772],[893844],[904945],[916069],[927207],[938364],[949541],[960740],[971965],[983219],[994493]],[[456889],[464310],[471244],[478387],[485961],[494017],[501805],[509312],[516513],[523424],[530033],[536543],[542966],[549311],[555592],[561814],[567987],[574116],[580201],[586237],[592221],[598149],[604021],[609839],[615598],[621295],[626923],[632484],[637972],[643386],[648727],[653994],[659185],[664309],[669367],[674364],[679307],[684201],[689053],[693865],[698637],[703369],[708059],[712702],[717304],[721871],[726406],[730914],[735397],[739856]],[[456889],[462908],[467989],[472924],[478376],[483667],[488575],[493157],[497391],[501292],[504846],[508274],[511585],[514790],[517900],[520924],[523870],[526748],[529555],[532288],[534950],[537540],[540057],[542505],[544882],[547185],[549410],[551554],[553615],[555590],[557475],[559267],[560966],[562575],[564093],[565523],[566871],[568140],[569338],[570468],[571532],[572533],[573473],[574353],[575179],[575958],[576695],[577399],[578074],[578717]]]

[]

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Natural increase

In the medium and high series births will exceed the number of deaths over the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Australian Capital Territory.
In the low series, deaths will exceed births in 2053.

Projected natural increase, Australian Capital Territory
	High series	Medium series	Low series
2022	3,232	3,232	3,232
2023	2,432	2,371	2,319
2024	2,753	2,579	2,406
2025	3,080	2,774	2,473
2026	3,585	3,131	2,698
2027	3,669	3,044	2,483
2028	3,706	2,952	2,308
2029	3,671	2,843	2,171
2030	3,633	2,733	2,034
2031	3,593	2,623	1,896
2032	3,560	2,509	1,754
2033	3,538	2,410	1,628
2034	3,527	2,323	1,511
2035	3,527	2,245	1,405
2036	3,541	2,181	1,310
2037	3,560	2,122	1,224
2038	3,587	2,073	1,146
2039	3,620	2,029	1,078
2040	3,643	1,985	1,007
2041	3,658	1,936	933
2042	3,672	1,884	862
2043	3,676	1,828	790
2044	3,674	1,772	717
2045	3,671	1,718	648
2046	3,661	1,659	577
2047	3,645	1,597	503
2048	3,624	1,528	425
2049	3,603	1,461	344
2050	3,580	1,388	261
2051	3,555	1,314	175
2052	3,534	1,241	85
2053	3,516	1,167	-8
2054	3,505	1,091	-101
2055	3,501	1,024	-191
2056	3,504	958	-282
2057	3,517	897	-370
2058	3,538	843	-452
2059	3,565	794	-531
2060	3,601	752	-602
2061	3,639	712	-670
2062	3,672	672	-736
2063	3,701	632	-799
2064	3,724	590	-860
2065	3,738	543	-920
2066	3,757	502	-974
2067	3,777	467	-1,021
2068	3,799	435	-1,063
2069	3,825	408	-1,096
2070	3,854	383	-1,125
2071	3,874	359	-1,157

Projected natural increase, Australian Capital Territory

["","High series","Medium series","Low series"]

[["2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029","2030","2031","2032","2033","2034","2035","2036","2037","2038","2039","2040","2041","2042","2043","2044","2045","2046","2047","2048","2049","2050","2051","2052","2053","2054","2055","2056","2057","2058","2059","2060","2061","2062","2063","2064","2065","2066","2067","2068","2069","2070","2071"],[[3232],[2432],[2753],[3080],[3585],[3669],[3706],[3671],[3633],[3593],[3560],[3538],[3527],[3527],[3541],[3560],[3587],[3620],[3643],[3658],[3672],[3676],[3674],[3671],[3661],[3645],[3624],[3603],[3580],[3555],[3534],[3516],[3505],[3501],[3504],[3517],[3538],[3565],[3601],[3639],[3672],[3701],[3724],[3738],[3757],[3777],[3799],[3825],[3854],[3874]],[[3232],[2371],[2579],[2774],[3131],[3044],[2952],[2843],[2733],[2623],[2509],[2410],[2323],[2245],[2181],[2122],[2073],[2029],[1985],[1936],[1884],[1828],[1772],[1718],[1659],[1597],[1528],[1461],[1388],[1314],[1241],[1167],[1091],[1024],[958],[897],[843],[794],[752],[712],[672],[632],[590],[543],[502],[467],[435],[408],[383],[359]],[[3232],[2319],[2406],[2473],[2698],[2483],[2308],[2171],[2034],[1896],[1754],[1628],[1511],[1405],[1310],[1224],[1146],[1078],[1007],[933],[862],[790],[717],[648],[577],[503],[425],[344],[261],[175],[85],[-8],[-101],[-191],[-282],[-370],[-452],[-531],[-602],[-670],[-736],[-799],[-860],[-920],[-974],[-1021],[-1063],[-1096],[-1125],[-1157]]]

[]

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Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration is projected to return to longer term averages.
Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in a net overseas migration gain of between 2,800 and 4,400 people per year from 2032.

Net interstate migration

Under the medium and high assumptions, net interstate migration is projected to result in a gain of 500 and 3,000 people per year from 2027.
Under the low assumption, net interstate migration is projected to result in a loss of 1,000 people per year from 2027.

Population by age

Data downloads

note

Download all (4.27 MB)

Time series spreadsheets

Data files

Table A1. Population projections, by age and sex, New South Wales - high series
Download xlsx [192.99 KB]
Table A2. Population projections, by age and sex, Victoria - high series
Download xlsx [188.51 KB]
Table A3. Population projections, by age and sex, Queensland - high series
Download xlsx [186.19 KB]
Table A4. Population projections, by age and sex, South Australia - high series
Download xlsx [180.74 KB]
Table A5. Population projections, by age and sex, Western Australia - high series
Download xlsx [183.23 KB]
Table A6. Population projections, by age and sex, Tasmania - high series
Download xlsx [177.26 KB]
Table A7. Population projections, by age and sex, Northern Territory - high series
Download xlsx [176.39 KB]
Table A8. Population projections, by age and sex, Australian Capital Territory - high series
Download xlsx [178.18 KB]
Table A9. Population projections, by age and sex, Australia - high series
Download xlsx [214.22 KB]
Table B1. Population projections, by age and sex, New South Wales - medium series
Download xlsx [187.82 KB]
Table B2. Population projections, by age and sex, Victoria - medium series
Download xlsx [188.64 KB]
Table B3. Population projections, by age and sex, Queensland - medium series
Download xlsx [185.92 KB]
Table B4. Population projections, by age and sex, South Australia - medium series
Download xlsx [181.32 KB]
Table B5. Population projections, by age and sex, Western Australia - medium series
Download xlsx [184.06 KB]
Table B6. Population projections, by age and sex, Tasmania - medium series
Download xlsx [177.41 KB]
Table B7. Population projections, by age and sex, Northern Territory - medium series
Download xlsx [176.35 KB]
Table B8. Population projections, by age and sex, Australian Capital Territory - medium series
Download xlsx [177.32 KB]
Table B9. Population projections, by age and sex, Australia - medium series
Download xlsx [214.36 KB]
Table C1. Population projections, by age and sex, New South Wales - low series
Download xlsx [188.27 KB]
Table C2. Population projections, by age and sex, Victoria - low series
Download xlsx [188.24 KB]
Table C3. Population projections, by age and sex, Queensland - low series
Download xlsx [186.43 KB]
Table C4. Population projections, by age and sex, South Australia - low series
Download xlsx [182.48 KB]
Table C5. Population projections, by age and sex, Western Australia - low series
Download xlsx [184.62 KB]
Table C6. Population projections, by age and sex, Tasmania - low series
Download xlsx [177.45 KB]
Table C7. Population projections, by age and sex, Northern Territory - low series
Download xlsx [177 KB]
Table C8. Population projections, by age and sex, Australian Capital Territory - low series
Download xlsx [176.81 KB]
Table C9. Population projections, by age and sex, Australia - low series
Download xlsx [214.43 KB]

Data cube

Projected population, components of change and summary statistics - Australia, state/territory, greater capital city and rest of state, 2022 (base) to 2071

Data files

Download xlsx [666.52 KB]

Projection assumptions (detailed)

Data files

Download xlsx [9.35 MB]

Data Explorer datasets

Help for: Data Explorer

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3222.0.

Post release changes

03/04/2024 - As advertised in the main release of this publication on 23 November 2023, the projection assumptions (detailed) datacube is now available under the Data downloads section.

APA

Population Projections, Australia

APA

Key statistics

Assumptions

Introduction

Span of projections

Base population

Summary

Projection series

Fertility

Summary

Trends in the total fertility rate

Assumed total fertility rates

State/territory and capital city/rest of state observed fertility

Age-specific fertility rates

Sex ratio at birth

Mortality

Summary

Trends in life expectancy

Assumed life expectancy at birth

Age-specific death rates

Assumed age-specific mortality rates

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state mortality

Net overseas migration

Summary

Historical data

Assumed state/territory and capital city/rest of state share of net overseas migration

Assumed age structure of net overseas migration

Net interstate migration

Summary

Historical data

State/territory and capital city/rest of state assumptions

National

Assumptions

Population size and change

Natural increase

Net overseas migration

Population by age

Median age

Age structure

States and territories

Capital cities

New South Wales

Assumptions

Population size and change

Natural increase

Net overseas migration

Net interstate migration

Population by age

Median age

Age structure

Victoria

Assumptions

Population size and change

Natural increase

Net overseas migration

Net interstate migration

Population by age

Median age

Age structure

Queensland

Assumptions

Population size and change

Natural increase

Net overseas migration

Net interstate migration

Population by age

Median age

Age structure

South Australia

Assumptions

Population size and change

Natural increase

Net overseas migration

Net interstate migration

Population by age

Median age

Age structure

Western Australia