Insights into Australian Exports of Meat

Statistics about international trade in goods and services, on a balance of payments and international trade basis

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Released
6/06/2024
Source
International Trade in Goods, April 2024
Released
06/06/2024 11:30am AEST

Introduction

Australia plays a key role in the global supply of meat, particularly beef and sheep. Australia was the 4th largest exporter of beef in 2022 [1], and supplied 50% of global sheep meat in 2023 [2].  Forecasts suggest Australia could become the second largest exporter of beef in 2024 [3].

Weather and other factors play a key role in Australia’s meat production and exports. Consistently higher levels of rainfall contribute to higher quality pastures, and in turn heavier animals. In recent years many Australian farms were impacted by drought and COVID-19 related supply chain constraints, limiting export capacity in the early 2020s. Whilst Australian production and supply was limited during this time, demand from other countries remained strong and increased further over 2023 and into 2024. This heightened demand for Australian meat products was driven by low production from key producers in other countries and recovering consumer demand in key export partner countries. 

Bovine and sheep meat production and exports

Australia’s meat exports are primarily driven by exports of two types of meat. By value, Australia’s largest meat export is bovine, with sheep consistently the second largest.

Bovine meat exports are driven by two commodities, the largest being Frozen boneless beef primal cuts, followed by Fresh or chilled boneless beef primal cuts. The leading commodities for sheep meat exports is Frozen meat cuts of lamb and Fresh or chilled cuts of lamb. Combined, the value of these 4 commodities accounted for over half (54%) of the value of total meat exports in 2023.

Many regions across Australia were impacted by drought conditions from 2017 to 2020 [4][5]. In response to drought impacted pastures and increased cost of feed, many farmers increased slaughter rates [6]. This led to increased meat production and exports during these years, particularly through 2019, after a sustained period of drought [7].  Consequently, smaller herd sizes in the following years, resulted in reduced production and exports of meat through the early 2020s. 

After drought conditions eased in early 2021 [8], farmers began rebuilding their herds [9]. In 2023, Australia’s cattle herd reached its highest level in 10 years [10]. From 2023, Australia’s red meat production has trended upwards, with an associated increase in bovine and sheep meat exports, as the grown herd sizes are maintained [11]. Coinciding with this usual increase in production was the announcement, in September 2023, of the El Nino event in Australia. The forecast weather event increased expectations of drier conditions and impacted pastures, leading to higher slaughter rates of cattle and sheep in response [12].

These coinciding events meant the first quarter of 2024 had the highest level of red meat production of any March quarter on record, up 14% on March quarter 2023 figures. Strong domestic supply supported record exports since the start of the year. In March quarter 2024, exported quantities of beef and lamb were higher than any previous March quarter and were up 27% on March quarter 2023. March month 2024 represented an all-time high for total meat exports. 

Exports of bovine and sheep meat remained strong in April 2024. Compared to April 2023, the value of exports increased 11%; while exported quantities increased 18%. Exports of bovine and sheep fell from March 2024, but this is consistent with the usual pattern between these months, which typically sees lower working days due to the Easter and Anzac Day breaks, affecting production and shipping capacity. 

Production data source: ABS, Table 14, Livestock Products, Australia, March 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au).

State breakdown

Queensland, followed by Victoria and New South Wales are the top three states driving red meat production and bovine and sheep meat exports. Comparatively, production and exports from the other Australian states occur at significantly lower levels and have recorded relatively stable patterns over the last decade. 
The fluctuations observed in exports from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland reflect nationwide trends and state-level production, recording strength in March 2024 relative to historic March quarters.  

Notably, both production and exports of red meat in Victoria have recorded constant increases since 2023, supported by improved production capacity with the opening of several meat processing facilities during this period [13].

Exports average unit value

Despite reduced production and export quantities during 2020-2022, Australia’s bovine and sheep meat export values remained relatively strong, compared to years prior to 2019, and started to grow from 2021. The difference between quantity exported and value was driven by higher export prices, measured by average unit value (AUV). The higher price per kilogram in 2020 exports reflected increased global demand for alternative meat options to pork, due to the ongoing impacts of African Swine Fever [14]. COVID-19 related supply constraints impacted Australia’s ability to export which led to reduced global supply of meat products and therefore increased international prices. Further increases occurred through 2022 due to high cost of feed, labour shortages, freight and energy costs which all placed upward pressure on export prices, particularly for beef and lamb [15][16][17]. Strength in price per kilo was bolstered by disrupted supply in other key meat producing countries, creating advantageous market conditions for Australian exporters. Price per kilo for bovine exports was slightly reduced in 2023, reflecting an easing of supply chain constraints, whilst the price of sheep meat exports reduced to historic levels. The smaller fall in price for bovine products is due to the availability of beef in other countries still being restricted, maintaining strong demand. 

Global meat prices have maintained similar levels in early 2024. Beef prices remained stable amidst sustained demand from international consumers and continued limited production from global key producers such as the United States and Argentina, despite some recovery in production from Brazil [18]. Export prices for Australian lamb have shown strength in 2024, supported by strong demand, especially from China [19].

Country breakdown

By country, China is one of the key destinations for Australian meat exports. Trade with China increased drastically in 2019 due to a combination of factors. Australian meat production and exports increased as farmers responded to drought conditions [20] and demand from Chinese consumers increased, as China’s domestic meat production was heavily impacted by African Swine Fever [21]. The shortage of locally available pork in China, where pork is a highly consumed meat [22] drove up the domestic price and resulted in a switch to externally sourced pork, as well as beef as an affordable alternative. 

In the first half of 2020, exports to China decreased as China suspended beef exports from a number of Australian businesses [23] and later increased tariffs on Australian beef [24]. This drove the decrease of overall meat exports to China, which continued through to 2022.
Meat exports to China started to rise from the start of 2023, due to a combination of post COVID-19 economic recovery, and the temporary suspension of meat exports from Brazil coinciding with an outbreak of Mad Cow Disease [25].This increase in total meat exports also coincides with the period where global pork supplies were impacted by African Swine Fever again. 

Exports to the United States of America in 2023 and into 2024 were notably higher than they have been since 2015. This can be attributed to the drought conditions in the United States leading to decreased heard sizes [26], consequently impacting domestic production [27]. This has enabled Australia to grow its meat exports to the United States, as well as to the countries that relied on the United States for their meat [28].

Exports to Japan continued to trend downwards. Demand from Australian beef, primarily supplied to the restaurant sector, has been curbed by widespread continuation of ‘work from home’ practices, and the consequent downward pressure on retail activity in Japan. Weakness in the Japanese Yen and inflationary pressures have also impacted domestic demand for imported red meat products [29].

Other meat exports

Australia’s other meat exports, which are exported at much lower rates than bovine and sheep, include goat, swine, and poultry.

Similarly to bovine and sheep exports, the decrease in goat meat exports seen across 2020 can be attributed to farmers reducing their herd sizes over the prior years in response to drought conditions, consequently reducing goat meat production [30]. The emergence of more favourable environmental conditions from 2021 resulted in larger flock sizes and heavier animals, thus greater goat meat production [31], leading to increased goat meat exports in the second half of 2021, and through 2022. 

Notably higher exports of swine meat (pork) were observed in 2023, and into the start of 2024. This can be attributed to a rise in demand resulting from the spread of African Swine Fever impacting overseas markets, particularly in Europe and Indonesia [32]. 

Footnotes

[1] Global Beef Report 2022 | Meat & Livestock Australia

[2] Australian lamb and mutton dominate global markets | Meat & Livestock Australia

[3] Australia’s position in the global beef trade | Meat & Livestock Australia

[4] Previous droughts | Australian Bureau of Meteorology

[5] The 2017-20 drought | New South Wales Government

[6] Livestock Products, Australia, March 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics

[7] Macroeconomic Effects of the Drought and Bushfires | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2020 | Reserve Bank of Australia

[8] The 2017-20 drought | New South Wales Government

[9] Australia’s cattle herd to reach largest size in nearly a decade | Meat & Livestock Australia

[10] Cattle projections | Meat & Livestock Australia

[11] Australian cattle herd to ease slightly to 28.6 million head | Meat & Livestock Australia

[12] Agricultural overview | Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

[13] New southern beef processing capacity will add competition, but further test labour resources | Beef Central

[14] International Trade Price Indexes, Australia, March 2020 | Australian Bureau of Statistics

[15] International Trade Price Indexes, Australia, June 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics

[16] International Trade Price Indexes, Australia, September 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics

[17] International Trade Price Indexes, Australia, December 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics

[18] Global beef market review, April 2024 | Meat & Livestock Australia

[19] Australian lamb and mutton dominate global markets | Meat & Livestock Australia

[20] Elevated start to 2019 Australian red meat exports | Meat & Livestock Australia

[21] Strong finish to 2019 for China imports but short-term disruption expected | Meat & Livestock Australia

[22] Greater China - market snapshot | Meat & Livestock Australia

[23] China halts beef imports from four Australian firms as COVID-19 spat sours trade | Reuters

[24] China raises the cost of Australian beef as ChAFTA safeguard is triggered - ABC News

[25] World's largest beef exporter Brazil suspends supply to China after case of mad cow disease - ABC News

[26]  US beef cow herd falls to 52-year low, squeezing meatpackers | Reuters

[27] A strong trading environment for Australian beef | Meat & Livestock Australia

[28] A strong trading environment for Australian beef | Meat & Livestock Australia

[29] Japan - market snapshot | Meat & Livestock Australia

[30] Global snapshot - goatmeat | Meat & Livestock Australia

[31] Australian goatmeat production and exports hit highs | Meat & Livestock Australia

[32] Pigs, poultry and eggs | Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

 

This article has been authored by Jordan Boland, Andrea De Donato, and Ashten de Haan (Balance of Payments and International Trade). Any comments or questions on this article can be sent to balance.of.payments.queries@abs.gov.au

Appendix

Data for the commodities used for the aggregation of data across meat type as referred to in this article (i.e. Bovine; Sheep; Poultry etc) was extracted using 6-digit level commodities of the Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification (AHECC). For more information on International Merchandise Trade Classification systems refer to the International Merchandise Trade: Concepts, Sources and Methods.

The commodity codes used in this article are as follows:

Bovine

  • 020110 Fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine animals
  • 020120 Fresh or chilled meat cuts of bovine animals, with bone in (excl. carcasses and half-carcasses)
  • 020130 Fresh or chilled boneless meat cuts of bovine animals
  • 020210 Frozen carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine animals
  • 020220 Frozen meat cuts of bovine animals, with bone in (excl. carcasses and half-carcasses)
  • 020230 Frozen boneless meat cuts of bovine animals
  • 020610 Fresh or chilled edible offal of bovine animals
  • 020621 Frozen edible tongues of bovine animals
  • 020622 Frozen edible livers of bovine animals
  • 020629 Frozen edible offal of bovine animals (excl. tongues and livers)
  • 021020 Meat of bovine animals, salted, in brine, dried or smoked.

Sheep

  • 020410 Fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb
  • 020421 Fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of sheep (excl. lamb) 
  • 020422 Fresh or chilled meat cuts of sheep, with bone in (excl. carcasses and half-carcasses)        
  • 020423 Fresh or chilled boneless meat of sheep       
  • 020441 Frozen carcasses and half-carcasses of sheep (excl. lamb)   
  • 020442 Frozen meat cuts of sheep, with bone in (excl. carcasses and half-carcasses)         
  • 020443 Frozen boneless meat cuts of sheep

Swine

  • 020311 Fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of swine
  • 020312 Fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, of swine, with bone in
  • 020319 Fresh or chilled meat of swine (excl. carcasses and half-carcasses; and hams, shoulders and cuts thereof with bone in)
  • 020630 Fresh or chilled edible offal of swine
  • 020641 Frozen edible livers of swine
  • 020649 Frozen edible offal of swine (excl. livers)
  • 020680 Fresh or chilled edible offal of sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules or hinnies
  • 020690 
  • 020910 Pig fat, free of lean meat, not rendered or otherwise extracted, fresh, chilled, frozen, salted, in brine, dried or smoked
  • Frozen edible offal of sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules or hinnies
  • 021011 Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, of swine, with bone in, salted, in brine, dried or smoked
  • 021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, of swine, salted, in brine, dried or smoked
  • 021019 Meat of swine, salted, in brine, dried or smoked (excl. hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, with bone in; and bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof)

Poultry 

  • 020711 Fresh or chilled meat of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, not cut in pieces
  • 020712 Frozen meat of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, not cut in pieces
  • 020713 Fresh or chilled meat cuts and edible offal of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus
  • 020714 Frozen meat cuts and edible offal of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus
  • 020724 Fresh or chilled meat of turkeys, not cut in pieces
  • 020725 Frozen meat of turkeys, not cut in pieces
  • 020726 Fresh or chilled meat cuts and edible offal of turkey
  • 020727 Frozen meat cuts and edible offal of turkey
  • 020741 Fresh or chilled meat of ducks, not cut in pieces
  • 020742 Frozen meat of ducks, not cut in pieces
  • 020743 Fresh or chilled edible fatty livers of ducks
  • 020744 Fresh or chilled meat cuts and edible offal of ducks (excl. fatty livers)
  • 020745 Frozen meat cuts and edible offal of ducks
  • 020751 Fresh or chilled meat of geese, not cut in pieces
  • 020755 Frozen meat cuts and edible offal of geese
  • 020760 Fresh, chilled or frozen meat and edible offal of guinea fowls

Goat  

  • 020450 Fresh, chilled or frozen meat of goats