Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years

Released
22/11/2018

Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

Anthony Grubb, Director of Demography at the ABS, said: "The projected time for the nation to grow by 5 million people on current indications will be similar, if not a little shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million.

"Looking further ahead, based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add a further 10 million to our current 25 million by the year 2043.

"However under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions the population would reach 35 million 5 years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053."

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Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately 9 and 9.3 million. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population; possibly reaching between 7 and 8 million by 2027.

Queensland is projected to continue growing over the projection period, increasing to 6 million people in 2027. Western Australia is projected to increase to 3 million by 2027, while South Australia is projected to have slower growth, increasing to 2 million.

The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase to between 479,000 and 510,000 people closing the gap on Tasmania's population which is projected to reach between 545,000 and 573,000 people in 2027. The Northern Territory is projected to increase to between 270,000 and 284,000 people in 2027.

Projected population, States and territories, at 30 June

  Series A (a) Series B (b) Series C (c)
202720662027206620272066
('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)('000)
New South Wales9 28514 7969 15213 0889 02211 754
Victoria7 90814 5257 69412 0307 49710 091
Queensland5 93110 4695 7898 7185 6767 507
South Australia1 8662 4371 8532 2141 8382 040
Western Australia2 9354 9262 9414 7602 9284 493
Tasmania573744559581545453
Northern Territory270386277439284490
Australian Capital Territory510939495775479612
Australia (d)29 28449 22628 76642 60828 27437 444

a. Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
b. Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
c. Lower assumptions of fertility, overseas and interstate migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.
d. Includes Other Territories.

 

Selected population milestones, Australia, Series A, B and C

Population MilestoneSeries A (a)Series B (b)Series C (c)
30 Million2028/292030/312032/33
35 Million2038/392043/442053/54
40 Million2048/492058/59. .
45 Million2058/59. .. .

a. Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
b. Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
c. Lower assumptions of fertility and overseas migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.

 

Further information is available in Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0) available for free download from the ABS website.

Media notes

  • Population projections are not intended as forecasts or predictions, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period.
  • Capital cities mentioned in this release are Greater Capital City Statistical Areas, as defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS): Volume 1 - Main Structure and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (cat. no. 1270.0.55.001).
  • When reporting ABS data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (or ABS) must be attributed as the source.
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