3218.0 - Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/03/2017   
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ABOUT THIS ISSUE

This issue contains estimates of the resident population of areas of Australia for 30 June 2006 to 2016. Estimates are provided for Statistical Areas Level 2 to 4 (SA2s - SA4s), Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSAs), Significant Urban Areas (SUAs), Remoteness Areas (RAs), State Electoral Divisions (SEDs), and states and territories of Australia, according to the 2011 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). Estimates are also provided for Commonwealth Electoral Divisions (CEDs) based on 2013 boundaries and Local Government Areas (LGAs) based on 2016 boundaries.

The summary commentary in this issue focuses on population changes at the SA2 level and above between 30 June 2015 and 30 June 2016. All estimates are available from the Downloads tab.

The total population of the Other Territories, namely Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Jervis Bay, is included in all references to the total population of Australia. However, the Other Territories are excluded from commentary about the states and territories of Australia.


ERP STATUS AND FUTURE RELEASES

The estimates in this issue are final for 2005 to 2011, revised for 2012 to 2015 (denoted 2012r, 2013r, 2014r and 2015r) and preliminary for 2016 (denoted 2016p).

The 2016 Census of Population and Housing was conducted on 9 August 2016. Preliminary rebased estimates for 30 June 2012 to 2016, based on the 2016 Census, will be available in a special issue of this product planned for release on 28 July 2017. Age-sex breakdowns of these estimates will be released on 28 August 2017 in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2016. Final Census-based estimates for June 2012 through to June 2016 are scheduled for release in August 2018. Totals will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016 while age-sex breakdowns will be released in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2016.


ACCURACY OF POPULATION ESTIMATES

It is important to recognise that sub-state/territory population estimates in this product are produced using Census data, mathematical modelling and population-weighted geographical correspondences and are subject to some error. A degree of caution should be exercised when using the estimates, especially for areas with very small populations. For more information see paragraphs 12 to 15 of the Explanatory Notes.

All statistics included in the commentary for this publication are rounded. While unrounded figures are provided in spreadsheets, accuracy to the last digit should not be assumed.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

This issue of Regional Population Growth incorporates minor format changes to streamline the Main Features and State/Territory commentaries. The Centre of Population summary for Australia and all states and territories have been moved into one section.

The Population Density sections have also been replaced with the "Population Grid" page. The square kilometre grid is an established, easy to understand and readily comparable international standard which enables users to make local, national and international comparisons of population density.


FUTURE CHANGES IN THIS PRODUCT

On 12 July 2016 the ABS updated the official statistical geography to the 2016 edition of the ASGS. Preliminary and final rebased sub-state ERP will be prepared and released on both this new 2016 ASGS and the old 2011 ASGS. These will be the last releases to include population estimates based on the 2011 ASGS. Sub-state population estimates from 30 June 2017 will only be prepared and released based on the 2016 ASGS.

From 1 July 2016 the Australian Government resumed responsibility for administering the External Territory of Norfolk Island, following a period of self-government. Population data for Norfolk Island will be included within the Other Territories category from the next issue of this publication.

A new method will be introduced to prepare sub-state population estimates for 30 June 2017 onwards. Sub-state ERP will be estimated out from the 2016 Census-based ERP using the components of population change - births, deaths, interstate and overseas migration. This method is consistent with that used to prepare national, state and territory ERP and provides an accounts-base for breaking down population change, enabling users to see how much change is due to natural increase and migration. This component-based method will replace the regression-based method currently used.

The annual release of sub-state ERP prepared using this new method will follow the current schedule, with totals released 9 months after the reference date and age-sex breakdowns around 13 months after the reference date. The first set of estimates prepared using this new method (for 30 June 2017) will be released in March 2018. It is anticipated that the individual components of population change, in addition to the ERP, will be included in this release.


REGIONAL INTERNAL MIGRATION ESTIMATES

Regional internal migration estimates (RIME) for 2015-16 will be added to Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) on 26 May 2017, along with the time series from 2006-07 to 2014-15. The RIME series is not directly comparable with ERP because of the different methods and source data used to prepare each series.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070. The ABS Privacy Policy outlines how the ABS will handle any personal information that you provide to us.