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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2015 December 20 003 -4.9 20 003 -4.9 20 003 -4.9 2016 March 18 567 -7.2 18 499 -7.5 18 525 -7.4 June 16 975 -8.6 16 991 -8.2 16 981 -8.3 September 15 524 -8.5 15 920 -6.3 15 796 -7.0

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2015 December 11 999 -1.0 11 999 -1.0 11 999 -1.0 2016 March 12 207 1.7 12 194 1.6 12 217 1.8 June 12 422 1.8 12 420 1.9 12 412 1.6 September 12 545 1.0 12 527 0.9 12 418 - - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2015 December 32 001 -3.5 32 001 -3.5 32 001 -3.5 2016 March 30 783 -3.8 30 694 -4.1 30 742 -3.9 June 29 401 -4.5 29 428 -4.1 29 412 -4.3 September 27 964 -4.9 28 455 -3.3 28 223 -4.0