5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/12/2016   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $27,702 and the calculated standard error in this case is $449m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $27,702.

For instance, the standard error of $449m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $27,253m to $28,151m ($27,702m ± $449m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $26,804m to $28,600m ($27,702m ± $898m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for September Quarter 2016 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
51
23
58
Manufacturing
29
96
101
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
1
36
36
Construction
23
156
156
Wholesale Trade
21
80
88
Retail Trade
54
66
90
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
56
115
120
Information Media and Telecommunications
9
52
60
Financial and Insurance Services
13
86
86
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
140
157
207
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
19
74
77
Other Selected Services
68
157
190
Total
168
420
449
New South Wales
58
265
278
Victoria
65
158
166
Queensland
143
186
235
South Australia
66
42
75
Western Australia
49
63
79
Tasmania
2
14
14
Northern Territory
1
10
10
Australian Capital Territory
3
18
19
Australia
168
420
449



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $31,366m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $27,702m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $521m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $3,664m.

For instance, the standard error of $521m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $3,143m to $4,185m ($3,664m ± $521m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $2,622m to $4,706m ($3,664m ± $1,042m)

The following table shows the standard errors for September Quarter 2016 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
63
124
65
Manufacturing
39
103
113
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
12
36
39
Construction
45
158
167
Wholesale Trade
21
96
106
Retail Trade
44
57
73
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
56
75
97
Information Media and Telecommunications
4
23
24
Financial and Insurance Services
10
97
98
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
133
152
189
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
7
81
82
Other Selected Services
128
155
219
Total
211
347
521
New South Wales
97
256
285
Victoria
82
167
195
Queensland
178
153
304
South Australia
64
51
86
Western Australia
63
153
152
Tasmania
4
19
20
Northern Territory
32
27
37
Australian Capital Territory
25
27
46
Australia
211
347
521