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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 June 25 872 1.3 25 872 1.3 25 872 1.3 September 26 429 2.2 26 400 2.0 26 468 2.3 December 26 902 1.8 26 904 1.9 26 880 1.6 2014 March 27 177 1.0 27 276 1.4 26 952 0.3

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 June 13 654 -3.3 13 654 -3.3 13 654 -3.3 September 13 159 -3.6 13 108 -4.0 13 134 -3.8 December 12 684 -3.6 12 700 -3.1 12 691 -3.4 2014 March 12 270 -3.3 12 516 -1.5 12 391 -2.4

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 June 39 526 -0.4 39 526 -0.4 39 526 -0.4 September 39 586 0.2 39 511 - 39 601 0.2 December 39 586 - 39 603 0.2 39 572 -0.1 2014 March 39 480 -0.3 39 782 0.5 39 352 -0.6 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)