5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, March 2014 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/05/2014   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $33,757m and the calculated standard error in this case is $495m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $33,757m.

For instance, the standard error of $495m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $33,262m to $34,252m ($33,757m ± $495m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $32,767m to $34,747m ($33,757m ± $990m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for March Quarter 2014 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
322
43
324
Manufacturing
36
80
95
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
18
11
23
Construction
14
134
135
Wholesale Trade
18
62
66
Retail Trade
61
78
96
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
8
114
117
Information Media and Telecommunications
5
14
15
Financial and Insurance Services
13
54
57
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
94
210
224
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
15
126
127
Other Selected Services
64
115
126
Total
363
324
495
New South Wales
56
198
206
Victoria
64
131
151
Queensland
99
242
274
South Australia
93
53
101
Western Australia
191
129
229
Tasmania
3
29
29
Northern Territory
132
35
137
Australian Capital Territory
15
21
29
Australia
363
324
495



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $42,411m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $33,757m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $455m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of -$8654m.

For instance, the standard error of $455m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range -$9,109m to -$8,199m (-$8,654m ± $455m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range -$9,564m to -$7,744m (-$8,654m ± $910m)

The following table shows the standard errors for March Quarter 2014 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
172
59
176
Manufacturing
30
79
88
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
27
9
29
Construction
28
168
171
Wholesale Trade
25
60
59
Retail Trade
75
88
124
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
37
146
146
Information Media and Telecommunications
3
16
17
Financial and Insurance Services
10
60
60
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
161
109
215
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
15
133
131
Other Selected Services
87
104
135
Total
279
366
455
New South Wales
66
207
209
Victoria
139
152
210
Queensland
137
201
232
South Australia
36
67
73
Western Australia
90
131
155
Tasmania
2
31
31
Northern Territory
133
31
134
Australian Capital Territory
15
26
33
Australia
279
366
455