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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2016 March 18 581 -7.0 18 581 -7.0 18 581 -7.0 June 17 099 -8.0 17 009 -8.5 17 034 -8.3 September 15 911 -7.0 15 938 -6.3 15 928 -6.5 December 15 171 -4.7 15 477 -2.9 15 357 -3.6

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2016 March 12 200 1.5 12 200 1.5 12 200 1.5 June 12 344 1.2 12 345 1.2 12 367 1.4 September 12 340 - 12 342 - 12 334 -0.3 December 12 291 -0.4 12 331 -0.1 12 225 -0.9 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2016 March 30 781 -3.8 30 781 -3.8 30 781 -3.8 June 29 452 -4.3 29 354 -4.6 29 401 -4.5 September 28 255 -4.1 28 295 -3.6 28 279 -3.8 December 27 393 -3.1 27 812 -1.7 27 589 -2.4