5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 23/02/2017   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $30,578 and the calculated standard error in this case is $460m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $30,578.

For instance, the standard error of $460m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $30,118m to $31,038m ($30,578m ± $460m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $29,658m to $31,498m ($30,578m ± $920m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2016 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
44
54
68
Manufacturing
53
91
120
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
11
8
16
Construction
17
215
218
Wholesale Trade
40
106
106
Retail Trade
87
94
132
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
24
103
110
Information Media and Telecommunications
68
38
99
Financial and Insurance Services
21
81
85
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
162
160
242
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
14
79
79
Other Selected Services
77
74
113
Total
228
357
460
New South Wales
63
232
233
Victoria
113
146
207
Queensland
138
175
245
South Australia
24
61
68
Western Australia
113
101
139
Tasmania
31
17
44
Northern Territory
3
11
12
Australian Capital Territory
1
17
17
Australia
228
357
460



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $27,883m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $30,578m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $372m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $2,695m.

For instance, the standard error of $372m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $2,323m to $3,067m ($2,695m ± $372m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $1,951m to $3,439m ($2,695m ± $744m)

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2016 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
25
60
68
Manufacturing
23
101
102
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
2
32
32
Construction
23
232
231
Wholesale Trade
31
98
111
Retail Trade
41
117
131
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
49
145
156
Information Media and Telecommunications
56
30
60
Financial and Insurance Services
29
79
87
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
148
146
191
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
20
99
100
Other Selected Services
81
135
172
Total
222
325
372
New South Wales
70
272
278
Victoria
87
183
214
Queensland
149
209
263
South Australia
57
72
98
Western Australia
66
92
104
Tasmania
30
14
39
Northern Territory
2
17
17
Australian Capital Territory
3
19
18
Australia
222
325
372