ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,061m in September 2017, an increase of $6m on the surplus in August 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,745m in September 2017, an increase of $872m on the surplus in August 2017.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2017 was a surplus of $3,319m, an increase of $82m on the surplus of $3,237m for the three months to June 2017. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary September quarter 2017 surplus was $3,502m, an increase of $345m on the June quarter 2017 surplus of $3,157m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				701	873	1 745	872	100
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 025	32 037	32 961	924	3
		Total goods		24 756	24 674	25 496	822	3
			Rural goods(b)	4 189	4 130	4 135	5	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	18 929	19 214	19 813	599	3
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	47	47	48	1	2
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 591	1 283	1 500	217	17
		Total services		7 269	7 363	7 465	102	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-31 324	-31 164	-31 216	52	-
		Total goods		-24 033	-23 803	-23 952	149	1
			Consumption goods	-8 268	-7 957	-8 148	191	2
			Capital goods	-6 327	-6 157	-6 215	58	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 981	-9 239	-9 204	-35	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-458	-450	-385	-65	-14
		Total services		-7 290	-7 361	-7 264	-97	-1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				1 172	1 055	1 061	6	1
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 450	32 375	32 334	-41	-
		Total goods		25 142	25 004	24 916	-88	-
			Rural goods(b)	4 132	4 150	4 153	3	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	19 383	19 279	19 248	-31	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	50	50	50	-	-
			Non-monetary gold	1 577	1 525	1 466	-59	-4
		Total services		7 308	7 370	7 418	48	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-31 277	-31 319	-31 273	-46	-
		Total goods		-23 979	-24 008	-23 949	-59	-
			Consumption goods	-8 250	-8 208	-8 127	-81	-1
			Capital goods	-6 146	-6 221	-6 285	64	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 144	-9 145	-9 111	-34	-
			Non-monetary gold	-440	-434	-426	-8	-2
		Total services		-7 298	-7 311	-7 324	13	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $41m to $32,334m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $924m (3%) to $32,961m. Non-rural goods rose $599m (3%), non-monetary gold rose $217m (17%), rural goods rose $5m and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (2%). Services credits rose $102m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				24 756	24 674	25 496	822	3
	General merchandise			23 118	23 344	23 948	604	3
		Rural goods		4 189	4 130	4 135	5	-
			Meat and meat preparations	1 055	1 046	1 063	17	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	761	754	689	-65	-9
			Wool and sheepskins	339	333	351	18	5
			Other rural(a)	2 035	1 997	2 032	35	2
		Non-rural goods		18 929	19 214	19 813	599	3
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	6 720	7 295	7 879	584	8
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	4 616	4 492	4 480	-12	-
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	2 702	2 670	2 637	-33	-1
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 010	892	936	44	5
			Machinery	837	875	848	-27	-3
			Transport equipment	423	422	400	-22	-5
			Other manufactures	1 628	1 620	1 620	-	-
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	870	817	887	70	9
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	122	130	126	-4	-3
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			47	47	48	1	2
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 591	1 283	1 500	217	17
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $3m to $4,153m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $5m to $4,135m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, up $35m (2%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $31m to $19,248m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $599m (3%) to $19,813m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $584m (8%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $70m (9%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• other mineral fuels, down $33m (1%)
• machinery, down $27m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $50m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (2%) to $48m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $59m (4%) to $1,466m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $217m (17%) to $1,500m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 269	7 363	7 465	102	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		3	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		2	7	6	-1	-14
	Transport		671	675	677	2	-
		Passenger(b)	259	260	262	2	1
		Freight(c)	20	20	18	-2	-10
		Other	251	252	254	2	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	142	143	143	-	-
	Travel		4 706	4 792	4 888	96	2
	Other services		1 886	1 889	1 894	5	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 965	5 052	5 150	98	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $48m (1%) to $7,418m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $102m (1%) to $7,465m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $96m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $98m (2%) to $5,150m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 23% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $46m to $31,273m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $52m to $31,216m. Consumption goods rose $191m (2%) and capital goods rose $58m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $65m (14%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $35m. Services debits fell $97m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-24 033	-23 803	-23 952	149	1
	General merchandise			-23 575	-23 353	-23 567	214	1
		Consumption goods		-8 268	-7 957	-8 148	191	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 245	-1 150	-1 134	-16	-1
			Household electrical items	-513	-492	-487	-5	-1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 047	-1 931	-2 120	189	10
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 407	-1 387	-1 397	10	1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-529	-525	-519	-6	-1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 527	-2 473	-2 490	17	1
		Capital goods		-6 327	-6 157	-6 215	58	1
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 652	-1 736	-1 770	34	2
			ADP equipment	-878	-828	-771	-57	-7
			Telecommunications equipment	-957	-893	-876	-17	-2
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-293	-266	-298	32	12
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-980	-946	-999	53	6
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-1 567	-1 489	-1 500	11	1
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-8 981	-9 239	-9 204	-35	-
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-152	-157	-134	-23	-15
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-181	-195	-174	-21	-11
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 230	-2 359	-2 374	15	1
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 002	-1 001	-1 022	21	2
			Parts for ADP equipment	-58	-58	-57	-1	-2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 288	-1 332	-1 356	24	2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-381	-305	-386	81	27
			Paper and paperboard	-194	-183	-181	-2	-1
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-126	-123	-125	2	2
			Iron and steel	-256	-247	-245	-2	-1
			Plastics	-340	-337	-336	-1	-
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 672	-2 734	-2 691	-43	-2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-17	-124	-37	-87	-70
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-84	-84	-84	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-458	-450	-385	-65	-14
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $81m (1%) to $8,127m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $191m (2%) to $8,148m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $189m (10%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $64m (1%) to $6,285m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $58m (1%) to $6,215m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $53m (6%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $34m (2%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $32m (12%).

Partly offsetting these rises was ADP equipment, down $57m (7%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $34m to $9,111m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $35m to $9,204m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other merchandise goods, down $87m (70%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $43m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was organic and inorganic chemicals, up $81m (27%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $8m (2%) to $426m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $65m (14%) to $385m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	Sep 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-7 290	-7 361	-7 264	-97	-1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-63	-90	-45	-45	-50
	Transport		-1 391	-1 384	-1 356	-28	-2
		Passenger(c)	-584	-586	-566	-20	-3
		Freight	-719	-709	-702	-7	-1
		Other(b)	-73	-73	-72	-1	-1
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-16	-16	-15	-1	-6
	Travel		-3 558	-3 583	-3 553	-30	-1
	Other services		-2 278	-2 304	-2 310	6	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 142	-4 169	-4 120	-49	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $13m to $7,324m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $97m (1%) to $7,264m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $45m (50%)
• travel, down $30m (1%)
• transport, down $28m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $49m (1%) to $4,120m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017	Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	6	1	-1	1	-4	10
	Unit value	-10	-10	-1	10	7	7
Fines
	Quantity	-	5	-9	2	7	1
	Unit value	-14	-14	-11	13	9	-2
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-63	176	4	-3	4	-
	Unit value	-1	10	-6	p-21	p-4	p4
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-32	68	7	-22	33	-17
	Unit value	6	-	-12	-9	p-3	-4
Thermal
	Quantity	-5	1	-	17	-15	4
	Unit value	-	3	-4	-1	4	p1
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-8	23	6	4	-1	-19
	Unit value	7	-3	5	-6	-1	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between August and September 2017 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $263m (18%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 7%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $294m (27%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 8%
• the Republic of Korea rose $16m (24%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 17%
• Japan fell $44m (19%), with quantities down 15% and unit values down 4%.

Iron ore fines, down $23m (1%), with quantities up 1% and unit values down 2%. Exports to the Republic of Korea fell $40m (15%), with quantities down 14% and unit values down 1%.

Hard coking coal, up $78m (4%), with unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• Netherlands rose $92m, with unit values up 8%
• Japan rose $51m (19%), with quantities up 21% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $62m (11%), with quantities down 20% and unit values up 11%.

Semi-soft coal, down $178m (20%), with quantities down 17% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• India fell $96m (45%), with quantities down 47% and unit values up 4%
• Japan fell $66m (23%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 6%.

Thermal coal, up $78m (5%), with quantities up 4% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea rose $120m (59%), with quantities up 45% and unit values up 9%
• Taiwan rose $77m (46%), with quantities up 38% and unit values up 6%
• Japan fell $66m (8%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $35m (13%), with quantities down 13%
• Thailand fell $26m (64%), with quantities down 67% and unit values up 9%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $471m (20%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 1%.