5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Jun 2010 
Quality Declaration
Quality Declaration ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/08/2010
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ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
In seasonally adjusted current price terms, the current account deficit fell $10,817m (66%) to $5,640m between the March quarter 2010 and June quarter 2010 where:
Goods and Services The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services at current prices was a surplus of $5,664m, a turnaround of $9,201m on the March quarter 2010 deficit. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $6,497m, a turnaround of $9,706m on the March quarter 2010 deficit where:
The net goods surplus resulted from an increase in goods credits (exports), up $12,868m (26%) exceeding an increase in goods debits (imports), up $2,750m (5%). Contributing to the increase in goods credits were:
Contributing to the increase in goods debits were:
In seasonally adjusted terms, the increase in the services deficit resulted from a decrease in services credits (exports), down $122m (1%) and an increase in services debits (imports), up $291m (2%). In seasonally adjusted volume terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $6,434m, a decrease of $1,260m (16%) on the March quarter 2010 deficit. The net deficit on goods decreased $1,597m (27%) to $4,344m. Goods credits rose $3,450m (7%) and goods debits rose $1,853m (3%). The net deficit on services increased $337m (19%) to $2,090m. Services credits fell $144m (1%) and services debits rose $193m (1%). The decrease of $1,260m in the deficit on goods and services in seasonally adjusted volume terms is expected to contribute 0.4 percentage points to growth in the June quarter 2010 volume measure of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the March quarter 2010. Goods Credits The trend estimate of goods credits at current prices rose $10,657m (22%) to $59,837m in the June quarter 2010. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods credits rose $12,868m (26%) to $61,621m. Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $379m (6%) to $6,797m, with volumes up 1% and prices up 5%. The increases were in:
Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $11,242m (29%) to $50,197m, with volumes up 8% and prices up 20%. The largest increases were in:
Net exports of goods under merchanting, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $36m (97%) to $73m, with volumes up 51% and prices up 32%. Exports of non-monetary gold, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $1,211m (36%) to $4,554m, with volumes up 21% and prices up 12%. Goods Debits The trend estimate of goods debits at current prices rose $1,095m (2%) to $53,289m in the June quarter 2010. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods debits rose $2,750m (5%) to $54,188m. Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $675m (4%) to $16,308m, with volumes up 4%. The largest increases were in:
Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $479m (4%) to $12,496m with volumes up 5% and prices down 1%. The largest increases were in:
Partly offsetting these increases was capital goods n.e.s., down $468m (25%), with volumes down 26% and prices up 2%. Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $640m (3%) to $23,016m with prices up 3%. The largest increases were in:
Partly offsetting these increases were:
Imports of non-monetary gold, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $956m (68%) to $2,368m with volumes up 52% and prices up 11%. Services The trend estimate of net services at current prices was a deficit of $884m, an increase of $362m (69%) on the revised March quarter 2010 deficit of $522m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net services recorded a deficit of $937m, an increase of $413m (79%) on the revised March quarter 2010 deficit of $524m. Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $122m (1%) to $13,022m with volumes down 1%. The largest decreases were in:
Partly offsetting these decreases was other services, up $36m (1%), with volumes up 1%. Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $291m (2%) to $13,959m, with volumes up 1% and prices up 1%. The only increase was in transport services, up $352m (10%), with volumes up 9% and prices up 1%. Freight transport increased $276m (13%). Partly offsetting the increase in transport services were:
In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, tourism related services credits fell $121m (1%) to $8,881m and tourism related services debits rose $52m (1%) to $7,328m. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR(footnote 1) In seasonally adjusted terms, the implicit price deflator (IPD) for total goods and services credits rose 14.2%. In original terms, it increased 14.3% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods and services credits rose 12.6%. In original terms, the IPD for goods credits rose 17.8% and the IPD for services credits rose 0.2%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the IPD for total goods and services debits rose 1.6%. In original terms, it increased 1.5% while the chain Laspeyres price index for goods and services debits rose 1.5%. In original terms, the IPD for goods debits rose 1.6% and the IPD for services debits rose 0.8%. Relationship to IPI and EPI In original terms, the implicit price deflator (IPD) for total goods credits rose 17.8% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods credits rose 16.1%. The export price index (EPI) rose 16.1% during the June quarter 2010. The difference between the EPI and IPD is driven by other mineral fuels and other non-rural goods. Differences in these two measures result from differences in pricing points, coverage and weights. In original terms, the implicit price deflator for total goods debits rose 1.6% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports rose 1.7%. The import price index (IPI) rose 1.9% during the June quarter 2010. Terms of Trade Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade for net goods and services rose 12.5% to 120.8, with an increase of 14.2% in the IPD for goods and services credits and an increase of 1.6% in the IPD for goods and services debits. The trend estimate of the terms of trade for net goods and services increased 14.4% to 120.9. Primary Income The trend estimate of the net primary income deficit decreased $262m (2%) from $12,850m in the March quarter 2010 to $12,588m in the June quarter 2010. In seasonally adjusted terms the net primary income deficit decreased $1,112m (9%) from $13,021m in the March quarter 2010 to $11,909m in the June quarter 2010. Primary income credits increased $1,000m (11%) to $10,021m and primary income debits decreased $111m (1%) to $21,931m. The main contributors to the increase in primary income credits were:
The main contributors to the decrease in primary income debits were:
In original terms the primary income deficit decreased $886m (7%) to $11,699m in the June quarter 2010. Primary income credits increased $1,099m (12%) to $10,292m and primary income debits increased $213m (1%) to $21,991m. Secondary Income In seasonally adjusted terms, the net secondary income balance was a deficit of $227m, remaining steady from the March quarter 2010 deficit. Secondary income credits rose $16m (1%) and secondary income debits rose $17m (1%) in the June quarter 2010. CAPITAL ACCOUNT In original terms, the capital account deficit was $42m, up $5m (14%) on the March quarter 2010 deficit of $37m. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT The balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $4.3b, with a net inflow $0.9b of debt and a net inflow of $3.5b of equity. The financial account surplus decreased $11.8b from $16.1b in the March quarter 2010 to $4.3b in the June quarter 2010 in line with the decrease in the current account deficit, which fell $11.4b from $15.6b last quarter to $4.2b this quarter. Direct investment recorded a net outflow of $1.2b in the June quarter 2010, a turnaround of $7.9b from the net inflow of $6.7b in the March quarter 2010, where:
Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow $18.3b, a decrease of $2.1b on the net inflow of $20.5b in the March quarter 2010. This was driven by:
Portfolio liabilities debt securities inflow decreased $20.0b from $43.9b in the March quarter 2010 to $23.8b in the June quarter 2010. The main contributor was long-term debt securities of deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank. Financial derivatives recorded a net outflow of $5.3b, a turnaround of $13.5b from the net inflow of $8.2b in the March quarter 2010. Other investment recorded a net outflow of $7.2b, a decrease of $15.4b from the net outflow of $22.6b in the March quarter 2010. Reserve assets recorded a net outflow of $0.3b, a turnaround of $3.6b from the net inflow of $3.3b in the March quarter 2010. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT Australia's net international investment position at 30 June 2010 was a net foreign liability of $763.5b, up $4.2b (1%) on the 31 March 2010 position of $759.3b. The increase consisted of:
During the June quarter 2010 Australia's net foreign equity liabilities fell $10.0b (10%) to $91.6b. This decrease was due to:
During the June quarter 2010 Australia's net foreign debt liability increased $14.1b (2%) to $671.9b. This increase was due to:
FINANCIAL YEAR: 2009-2010 SITUATION CURRENT ACCOUNT In original terms, the balance on current account for 2009-10 was a deficit of $56.1b, a 38% increase on the deficit of $40.5b recorded for 2008-09. The balance on goods and services deficit was $6.0b, a turnaround of $11.9b on the surplus of $5.9b recorded in 2008-09. Goods credits decreased $30.1b (13%) and goods debits decreased $16.4b (7%). The 2009-10 services deficit of $1.4b was a decrease of $1.9b (57%) on the deficit of $3.3b in 2008-09. The 2009-10 net primary income deficit increased $3.8b (8%), with a decrease in primary income credits of $6.9b (16%) and a decrease in primary income debits of $3.1b (4%). The 2009-10 secondary income deficit decreased $0.08b (8%), with a decrease in secondary income credits of $0.3b (4%) and a decrease in secondary income debits of $0.4b (5%). FINANCIAL ACCOUNT The balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $56.7b, with a net outflow on equity of $9.0b and a net inflow on debt of $65.7b. This result was up $16.3b on the net inflow of $40.5b recorded for the previous year as a result of:
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION Australia's net international investment position as at 30 June 2010 was a net foreign liability of $763.5b. This was up $59.8b (8%) on the position a year earlier as a result of:
During 2009-10, Australia's net foreign equity liability increased to $91.6b, up $12.2b (15%) on the previous financial year, with price changes of $17.1b and exchange rate changes of $9.9b partially offset by net transactions of -$9.0b and other changes of -$5.9b. Australia's net foreign debt liability rose to $671.9b, up $47.6b (8%) on the previous financial year, with net transactions of $65.7b and other changes of $3.5b partially offset by price changes of -$13.5b and exchange rate changes of -$8.1b. At 30 June 2010, the ratio of Australia's net international investment position to GDP using the latest available GDP figure (for the year ended 31 March 2010 using current prices) was 60.2%. This compares with 56.0% one year ago and 49.1% one decade ago. 1 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. <back Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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