3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 13/07/2004   
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KEY FIGURES

Apr 04
May 03
May
to May
to May
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
419.9
-0.3
. .
Seasonally adjusted
422.7
-0.1
. .
Original
341.3
. .
30.8
Short-term resident departures
Trend
352.9
0.5
. .
Seasonally adjusted
345.4
-5.0
. .
Original
356.2
. .
50.7

Graph – Visitor arrivals, short-term
Graph – Resident departures, short-term


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • Trend estimates in this issue take into account the impact of recent world events. See paragraphs 21 and 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
  • Short-term visitor arrivals to Australia continued to decline with the trend estimate for May 2004 (419,900 movements) representing a decrease of 0.3% compared with April 2004. This followed decreases of 0.6% for March and 0.4% for April 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures continued to increase with the trend estimate for May 2004 (352,900 movements) representing an increase of 0.5% compared with April 2004. This followed increases of 1.1% for March and 0.9% for April 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of short-term visitor arrivals for May 2004 (422,700 movements) decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous month and followed a revised increase of 0.6% for April 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures for May 2004 (345,400 movements) decreased by 5.0% compared with April 2004 and followed increases of 3.7% for March and 4.5% for April 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms there were 341,300 short-term visitor arrival movements to Australia during May 2004, an increase of 30.8% compared with May 2003 (260,900 movements).
  • There were 356,200 short-term resident departure movements, an increase of 50.7% compared with May 2003 (236,300 movements).
  • These large increases reflect the significant impact that world events had on short-term travel to and from Australia during the first half of 2003. The ABS encourages the use of the trend series for time series analysis.

NOTES

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for June 2004 will be available on this website on 15 July 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the home page and selecting Main Features (located under Statistical Products and Services) and then 34. Migration. Select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).


DATA NOTES

For data quality issues see the appendix of this publication.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and/or Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640 or c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.


MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals during May 2004 were 31% higher compared with May 2003. However, the original series is affected by calendar related and irregular effects. The trend series removes such effects to reveal the underlying long-term direction of the series. According to trend estimates, short-term visitor arrivals were 2% higher compared with May 2003, and 3% lower than when the series last peaked in November 2003 (432,100 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries, in original terms, for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with May 2003.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries – May 2004
May
May
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%
New Zealand
74.6
67.0
7.6
11.3
Japan
51.7
29.5
22.1
75.0
United States of America
29.8
28.3
1.5
5.1
United Kingdom
29.3
28.0
1.4
4.9
Singapore
19.5
13.7
5.7
41.7
China
16.2
3.1
13.1
423.2
Korea
16.1
10.7
5.5
51.4
Malaysia
14.8
10.0
4.8
48.5
Taiwan
9.1
2.3
6.8
301.1
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
7.5
6.0
1.5
24.2


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

According to trend estimates, short-term resident departures have recorded consecutive monthly growth rates since April 2003. However, estimates since January 2004 indicate that this growth rate is slowing. Currently, short-term resident departures are 24% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (285,400 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries, in original terms, for short-term resident departures during May 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with May 2003.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations – May 2004
May
May
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%
United Kingdom
43.3
33.4
9.9
29.6
New Zealand
43.2
38.7
4.5
11.6
United States of America
35.3
25.7
9.6
37.3
Indonesia
27.1
11.8
15.3
130.0
Fiji
12.9
10.0
2.9
29.2
China
12.9
1.6
11.2
680.9
Singapore
12.4
3.6
8.8
248.5
Thailand
12.3
6.9
5.4
77.9
Italy
10.8
8.0
2.8
35.1
Canada
9.6
7.5
2.1
28.6


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 9,690 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during May 2004, an increase of 21% compared with May 2003 (8,000 movements). Settlers born in both New Zealand and the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion (13%) of permanent arrivals for May 2004, followed by China (10%).

Statistics on OAD relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 4,650 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during May 2004, an increase of 17% compared with May 2003 (3,970 movements).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not consider whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section.

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Care should be taken when comparing estimates over time, particularly when using original estimates for time-series analysis. The original series is affected by such world events as the Bali bombing, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq, which resulted in fewer than usual visitor arrivals and resident departures during the first half of 2003. The ABS encourages the use of the trend series for time series analysis as it reveals the underlying behaviour of the series without the influence of such events. See paragraphs 21 and 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.