3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/09/2004

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FEATURE ARTICLE - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates

KEY FIGURES


		Jun 04	Jul 03
	Jul	to Jul	to Jul
	04	04	04
		%	%
	'000	change	change
Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend	435.2	0.9	. .
Seasonally adjusted	440.9	1.9	. .
Original	472.0	. .	13.6

Short-term resident departures
Trend	362.0	0.8	. .
Seasonally adjusted	363.3	-0.1	. .
Original	379.5	. .	28.0

KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2004 (435,200 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with June 2004. This followed revised increases of 0.6% for May and 0.8% for June 2004.

Short-term resident departures continued the steady monthly increase in the series since April 2003. The trend estimate for July 2004 (362,000 movements) represents an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous month and followed increases of 1.0% for both May and June 2004.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of short-term visitor arrivals for July 2004 (440,900 movements) increased by 1.9% compared with June 2004. This followed revised increases of 0.5% for May and 1.4% for June 2004.

Short-term resident departures for July 2004 (363,300 movements) decreased by 0.1% compared with June 2004 and followed a decrease of 5.4% for May and an increase of 5.6% for June 2004.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms there were 472,000 short-term visitor arrival movements to Australia during July 2004, representing an increase of 13.6% compared with July 2003 (415,500 movements).

There were 379,500 short-term resident departures for July 2004, an increase of 28.0% compared with July 2003 (296,500 movements).

Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	RELEASE DATE

August 2004	14 October 2004
September 2004	15 November 2004
October 2004	13 December 2004
November 2004	14 January 2005
December 2004	16 February 2005
January 2005	15 March 2005

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for August 2004 will be available on the ABS web site on 16 September 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).

DATA NOTES

For data quality issues see the Appendix of this publication.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A feature article, Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates – Adding Value to the Analysis of Short-term Movements, has been included in this issue.

The Standard Errors section has been updated and presents sample standard errors for movements up to 5 million.

Passenger card samples during the period July 2001 to June 2004 were not completely random. As of this issue the passenger card processing system has returned to a fully random sample. See the paragraph on sampling method in the Appendix

FORTHCOMING CHANGES

As of the August 2004 issue of this publication (to be released 14 October 2004) the following changes will occur:

The presentation of information on countries will be based on the Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC). This will replace the currently used Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (ASCCSS). For more detailed information refer to the ABS publication Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC), 1998 (cat. no. 1269.0).

Four new tables will be included in this publication. These tables will present trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals by country of residence and short-term resident departures by country of destination. As a result of these additional tables, the current table numbers will change.

The lists of countries in tables 3, 5 and 8 will be revised to reflect current trends. Due to space considerations, there will be fewer countries printed in current tables 3 and 5 of this publication. Expanded lists of countries for these tables will be available electronically under Time Series Spreadsheets.

The key figures will be revised to include the year apart growth measure for trend estimates, and exclude the year apart growth measure for original estimates. The tables in the main features will also be revised to present data for trend estimates, rather than original estimates. For further information refer to the Feature article, Seasonally adjusted and Trend Estimates – Adding Value to the Analysis of Short-term Movements.

For more information about these forthcoming changes, contact Chrissy Beruldsen on (02) 6252 5640 or email c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.

ABBREVIATIONS

ABS	Australian Bureau of Statistics
ASCCSS	Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics
DIMIA	Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs
NZ	New Zealand
OAD	Overseas Arrivals and Departures Collection
SAR	Special Administrative Region
TRIPS	Travel and Immigration Processing System

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640 or email c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.

MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals have recorded steady monthly increases since April 2004. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3% (or 11,200 movements) higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004 (424,000 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries, in original terms, for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with July 2003.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries - July 2004

	July	July	Numeric	Percentage
	2004	2003	change	change

	'000	'000	'000	%

New Zealand	108.1	82.9	25.2	30.4
Japan	57.0	45.7	11.3	24.8
United Kingdom	45.3	45.0	0.3	0.7
United States of America	45.0	44.6	0.4	0.9
China	26.4	11.3	15.0	132.6
Korea	19.9	21.0	-1.1	-5.5
Singapore	16.9	18.9	-2.0	-10.5
Hong Kong (SAR of China)	14.4	13.3	1.1	8.0
Malaysia	13.1	14.4	-1.4	-9.5
Germany	11.6	12.8	-1.1	-8.8

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have recorded consecutive monthly increases since April 2003. Since January 2004, the average monthly growth rate has been around 1%. However, recent estimates indicate that this growth rate is slowing. Currently, short-term resident departures are 27% (or 76,700 movements) higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (285,300 movements).

The following table presents the top ten destinations, in original terms, for short-term resident departures during July 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with July 2003.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations - July 2004

	July	July	Numeric	Percentage
	2004	2003	change	change

	'000	'000	'000	%

New Zealand	69.5	50.5	19.0	37.7
United Kingdom	36.8	30.4	6.4	21.1
Indonesia	34.3	18.0	16.3	90.9
United States of America	27.9	25.4	2.5	9.8
Thailand	16.0	9.3	6.8	72.9
Fiji	15.5	15.4	0.1	0.4
Singapore	14.5	13.1	1.5	11.1
Malaysia	13.3	9.5	3.8	39.8
China	12.2	6.2	6.0	96.5
Hong Kong (SAR of China)	10.9	8.3	2.6	31.8

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,200 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during July 2004, an increase of 5% compared with July 2003 (9,750 movements). Settlers born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion (12%), followed by China and New Zealand (11%).

Statistics on OAD relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 4,940 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during July 2004, an increase of 6% compared with July 2003 (4,670 movements).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section.