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RANGE OF POPULATION ESTIMATES TO BE COMPILED
The following section provides detailed plans for the range of population estimates to be compiled, the associated demographic product releases and their release dates.
Preliminary total population estimates by National, State and Territory
Preliminary rebased population estimates for 30 June 2011, and preliminary estimates for 31 December 2011 based on the 2011 Census will be released on 20 June 2012 in Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2011 (cat. no. 3101.0). This release is scheduled at this time so as to meet the requirements for the 31 December 2011 population estimates by state and territory under the Local Government (Financial Assistance) Act 1995.
Final total population estimates by National, State and Territory
Final estimates from September 2006 to June 2011 are proposed to be released in June 2013 in Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2012 (cat. no. 3101.0) including finalised components of population growth over the period. The age-sex breakdown will be released at the same time. Population estimates by age and sex are now released in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).
Sub-state total population estimates
With the move to the new Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) from June 2011 onwards, sub-state population estimates will be available on both ASGS and ASGC geographies for 30 June 2011. While standard output will be at the SA2 and Local Government Area (LGA) levels, SA1 level estimates (apportioned from SA2 level estimates) for 30 June 2011 will also be available on request for use to form population estimates for other geographic area aggregations.
TABLE 3. RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR SUB-STATE ERPs - TOTALS
(a) The geographical levels released under ASGS include: SA2, SA3, SA4, GCCSA, LGA and Remoteness Area
(b) The geographical levels released under ASGC include: SLA, LGA, SD, SSD, Statistical District and Remoteness Area
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australian population estimates
Experience has shown that additional analysis and quality assurance processes are required for the compilation of estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for sub-national geographies. Further, in the past, release of more than one set of population estimates for the same reference period has led to user confusion over which set of estimates to use for analysis and reporting. Following discussion with key stakeholders and data users, the ABS has decided not to release a preliminary set of 2011 Census-based estimates for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population and the non-Indigenous population. Accordingly, the first release will be a set of National population estimates in June 2013 to be supplemented by state and territory, remoteness areas and other geographic areas in August 2013. Despite the two stage release plans, the National totals will not change, to avoid confusion amongst stakeholders.
National level population estimates at 30 June 2011 will be published in Australian Demographic Statistics, September quarter 2012 (3101.0) - released in March 2013. Final estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for 30 June 2011 by state/territory, capital city/balance of state, remoteness area and other sub-state levels are proposed to be released in Population Estimates, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2011 (cat. no. 3238.0.55.001) - released in August 2013. Further, reverse survived estimates (footnote 1) (back to 30 June 2001) based on the 2011 Census and forward projections for various levels of geography, by age and sex will be released in Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2011-2026 (cat. no. 3238.0) in the first half of 2014.
Separate estimates of the Torres Strait Islander population will be available on request after the release of this publication.
The final population estimates for 30 June 2011 will form the population base (or denominator) for the compilation of life tables and life expectancy at birth estimates for the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Indicative plans are for these life tables and life expectancy estimates to be released by late 2013 in Life Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2010-2012 (cat. no. 3302.0.55.003) pending more detailed stakeholder and user consultation. A detailed communication plan for providing regular updates on release plans for ABS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander demographic statistics is currently being developed. It is expected that an outline of this communication and work plan will be available by late 2011 and will be distributed to key forums, stakeholders, data users and published as a separate ABS information paper.
Population estimates by country of birth
Population estimates by age and sex
The following population estimates are proposed to be compiled by age and sex based on the 2011 Census of Population and Housing and made available during 2012 and 2013. All population estimates will be available by age and sex on the ABS website.
TABLE 4. AVAILABILITY OF POPULATION ESTIMATES ON DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHIES, AND LEVEL OF AGE-SEX BREAKDOWN
(a) Top age aggregate and extent of age disaggregation for higher ages are subject to change depending on the quality of the age reporting for higher age groups in the 2011 Census results. The ABS will calculate single year of age estimates, however only estimates assessed as having acceptable quality will be published or available on request. For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, specific examination of the quality of single year of age estimates will be undertaken and if possible, single year of age estimates up to age 24 years may be published or available on request.
(b) The ABS is considering the range of recommendations arising from a 2011 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Demographic Statistics Stakeholder Consultation Review including the geographic disaggregation of population estimates. Further information on release plans is to be advised.
Note: the table above shows data published on the ABS website. More detailed data may be available on request.
1. Reverse survived estimates refers to use of data from censuses or life tables to estimate past populations (a variation of the life table survival ratio method). For further information please refer to Popoff, C, & Judson, D. H, (2004), Some methods of estimation for statistically underdeveloped areas, in J. Siegel & D. Swanson (eds.), The Methods and Materials of Demography (pp.603-641). London: Elsevier Academic Press, p.624.
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