3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2011 to 2036 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/03/2015   
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HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

The number of households in Australia is projected to increase from 8.4 million in 2011 to between 12.6 and 12.7 million in 2036 (Series III and Series I respectively). This is an increase of between 4.2 and 4.3 million households, or 49% to 51%. Over the same period, Australia's population is projected to increase by 45%, from 22.3 million people to 32.4 million people. The average household size in Australia was 2.6 people per household in 2011, and is projected to be between 2.5 and 2.6 people per household in 2036.


4.1 Projected number of households - Australia

Households
Series I
Series II
Series III
As at 30 June
'000
'000
'000

2011
8 420.0
8 420.0
8 420.0
2016
9 268.7
9 241.5
9 241.5
2021
10 144.3
10 100.5
10 085.4
2026
11 014.2
10 961.7
10 921.1
2031
11 878.9
11 828.2
11 753.0
2036
12 727.9
12 681.5
12 571.9


FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS

Family households are projected to have the largest increase over the projection period, remaining as the most common household type in Australia. The number of family households is projected to increase by between 2.7 and 2.8 million households, from 6.0 million in 2011 to between 8.7 and 8.8 million in 2031. Family households can contain more than one family. In 2011, 2.3% of all family households in Australia were multiple family households. Assuming this proportion remains constant between 2011 and 2036, the number of multiple family households would increase by between 65,800 and 68,300 households, from 144,200 in 2011 to between 210,000 (Series III) and 212,500 (Series I) households in 2036.

LONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS

Although family households show the greatest numeric increase, lone person households are projected to show the greatest percentage increase over the 25-year projection period. The number of lone person households is projected to increase by between 61% and 65% (1.3 million households), from 2.1 million households in 2011 to between 3.3 million and 3.4 million households in 2036. This increase primarily reflects changes in the age structure of the population and the fact that older women in particular are more inclined to be living alone than other people.

GROUP HOUSEHOLDS

The number of group households in Australia is projected to increase from 367,900 in 2011 to between 504,000 and 527,200 in 2036. This is an increase of between 136,100 and 159,200 households, or 37% to 43%, over the projection period. As a proportion, group households made up 4.4% of all households in Australia in 2011 and are projected to decrease to between 4.0% and 4.2% by 2036.

Graph Image for 4.2 Projected number of households - Australia


INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

The projected average annual growth rate in the number of households in Australia for the period 2011 to 2021 (1.8%) is higher than the projected rates for New Zealand (1.2%), England (1.0%), Scotland (0.7%) and Japan (0.2%). Average household size is projected to decline for all of the selected countries between 2011 and 2021, and Australia average household size is projected to remain the largest of these countries.

4.3 Projected growth, households, Selected countries

Average household size

Projected average annual growth rate, 2011-2021
2011
2021
Country
%
persons
persons

Australia(a)
1.84
2.60
2.57
England(b)
0.96
2.36
2.33
Scotland(c)
0.72
2.18
2.11
New Zealand(d)
1.24
2.60
2.50
Japan(e)
0.18
2.41
2.28

(a) 2011-based projections, Series II.
(b) 2011-based projections; Department for Communities and Local Government (United Kingdom).
(c) 2012-based projections (principal series); General Register Office for Scotland. Data refers to 2012 and 2022 rather than 2011 and 2021.
(d) 2006-based projections (series 5B - medium assumptions); Statistics New Zealand.
(e) 2010-based projections; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Japan).