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3219.0.55.001 - Information Paper: Population Estimates under Australia's New Statistical Geography, August 2011  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/08/2011  First Issue
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AVAILABILITY AND RELEASE OF SA2-BASED, LGA AND SLA-BASED ERP



Summary

SA2-Based Population Estimates

LGA Population Estimates

SLA-Based Population Estimates

Product Release Timetable


SUMMARY

All sub-state population estimates will continue to be prepared annually, as at 30 June each year.

Estimates will initially be prepared at the total population level (no age/sex breakdown) and will then be broken down into age and sex components. Under the ASGC, ERP by age and sex was prepared at the single year of age level, up to 84 years, then 85 and over. For ERP based on the ASGS, the ABS plans to compile estimates by single years of age up to 99 years and increase the upper age range to 100 years and over from 2011 onwards. The geographic level at which these estimates will be released, or made available, will be determined once the quality of these estimates has been assessed.

Through the five-yearly cycle of compiling population estimates, the estimates will have three different statuses: preliminary, revised and final. The policy of publishing data which are later subject to revision is a compromise between timely availability of estimates for users and the delays in availability of the components of population change. At all times in the publishing cycle, the best possible estimate is available.

The release of estimates under the ASGS will follow the current release schedule. Preliminary estimates are normally available nine months after the reference date, revised estimates twelve months later, and rebased and final estimates after the following Census.

For example, preliminary 30 June 2011 sub-state population estimates will be prepared and released on 30 March 2012. These estimates will be then be superseded with the rebased version, based on information from the 2011 Census. At this time, estimates from 2007 to 2010 will also be rebased, using information from the 2011 Census. Final rebased estimates will then be prepared the following year incorporating further refinements to components used to rebase population estimates.


SA2-BASED POPULATION ESTIMATES

The SA2 will be the base spatial unit used to prepare and disseminate sub-state population estimates from 2011 onwards. These estimates will aggregate directly to the larger Statistical Areas (SA3s, SA4s and GCCSAs).


Totals

Population estimates for SA2s, SA3s, SA4s and GCCSAs will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3218.0) on 31 July 2012. This will contain a ten year time series from 2001 to 2011. Estimates will be final for 2001 to 2006 and rebased for 2007 to 2011, based on information from the 2011 Census. All data will be released in Excel and SuperTable formats. Commentary in this product will focus on the SA2 level.

Final estimates for 2007 to 2011 will be released in August 2013, based on further refinements to components used to rebase population estimates. There will be no new product for this release. Instead, Excel and SuperTable datacubes containing the time series on the new geography will be added under the downloads tab in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3218.0).

Preliminary population estimates for SA2s and above at 30 June 2012 will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2011-12 (cat. no. 3218.0) in March 2013. A ten year time series back to 2002 will also be included.

From March 2013, the release cycle of estimates for SA2s and above will follow the same release schedule of SLAs in the past. That is, preliminary estimates will be released nine months after the reference date, revised estimates the following year, and rebased and final after the following Census.


Age/sex

Population estimates by age and sex for SA2s and above (based on information from the 2011 Census) will be released in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3235.0) on 31 August 2012. As with the totals, a ten year time series from 2001 to 2011 will also be included. Estimates for 2001 to 2006 will be final, and rebased for 2007 to 2011. Commentary in this product will also focus on the SA2 level.

Final SA2-based estimates for 2007 to 2011 by age and sex will be released in August 2013. Again, no new product will be prepared. SuperTable datacubes that contain the time series will be added to the downloads tab in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3235.0).

Preliminary age/sex population estimates as at 30 June 2012 will also be released in August 2013 in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2012 (cat. no. 3235.0). This will include a time series back to 2007.

Thereafter, the release cycle of age/sex SA2s and above will follow the same schedule as the age/sex SLA release schedule. That is, preliminary estimates will be released thirteen months after the reference date, revised estimates the following year, and rebased and final estimates after the following Census.

LGA POPULATION ESTIMATES

As LGA ERP is regarded as an important ABS output, it will continue to be prepared under the new geography. The boundaries on which these estimates will be prepared will be updated each year, in line with official gazetted boundaries. For example, 2012 LGA population estimates will be prepared on 2012 LGA boundaries, 2013 LGA population estimates will be prepared on 2013 LGA boundaries etc.


Totals

Preliminary 2011 LGA estimates (based on 2011 LGA boundaries) will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2010-11 (cat. no. 3218.0) on 30 March 2012.

These estimates will be superseded with the rebased version, based on information from the 2011 Census. They will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3218.0) in late July 2012 and will contain the ten year time series based on 2011 LGA boundaries.

Final LGA estimates will be available around August 2013, based on further refinements to components used to rebase population estimates. They will be released in the same product as Excel spreadsheets and SuperTable datacubes.

From March 2013, the release cycle of estimates for LGAs will follow the same release schedule for LGA estimates in the past, at the same time as SA2-based estimates.


Age/sex

There will be no preliminary age/sex ERP for LGAs as at 30 June 2011.

LGA ERP by age and sex (based on 2011 LGA boundaries) will be released in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3235.0) in late August 2012. A ten year time series from 2001 to 2011 will also be included. Estimates for 2001 to 2006 will be final, and rebased for 2007 to 2011.

Final 2007 to 2011 LGA estimates will be available around August 2013. SuperTable datacubes that contain the time series of LGA ERPs will be added to the downloads tab in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3235.0).

Preliminary LGA age/sex population estimates as at 30 June 2012 will be released in August 2013 in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2012 (cat. no. 3235.0). This will include a time series back to 2007.

Thereafter, the release cycle of age/sex LGAs will follow the release schedule of SA2 age/sex estimates.

SLA-BASED POPULATION ESTIMATES

Totals

Preliminary SLA-based population estimates (based on 2011 ASGC boundaries) for 30 June 2011 will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2010-11 (cat. no. 3218.0) on 30 March 2012.

Rebased estimates for 2007 to 2011 will be released in Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3218.0) in late July 2012, which will also contain the ten year time series. Final estimates will be added to this product in August 2013. This will be the final release of SLA-based population estimates.

Estimates from 30 June 2012 will only be prepared based on the ASGS.


Age/sex

There will be no preliminary age/sex population estimates for SLAs (and other ASGC regions) as at 30 June 2011.

Age/sex SLA ERP will be released in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3235.0) in late August 2012. A ten year time series from 2001 to 2011 will also be included. Estimates for 2001 to 2006 will be final, and rebased for 2007 to 2011.

Final 2007 to 2011 ASGC-based estimates will be available around August 2013. SuperTable datacubes that contain the time series will be added to the downloads tab in Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011 (cat. no. 3235.0). As with totals, this will be the last time population estimates by age/sex will be prepared and released at the SLA level and above.

PRODUCT RELEASE TIMETABLE

The following table shows the timing of product releases over the next few years for total population estimates.


TABLE 3. RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR ERP, Total
Release dateReference year, version
ASGS(a)
ASGC(b)
Product (cat. no. 3218.0)

30 March 2012
  • 2011, preliminary
  • 2007-2010, revised
  • 2001-2006, final
O
P
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2010-11

31 July 2012
  • 2007-2011, rebased
  • 2001-2006, final
P
P
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011

March 2013
  • 2012, preliminary
  • 2007-2011, rebased
  • 2002-2006, final
P
O
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2011-12

August 2013
  • 2001-2011, final (Excel & SuperTable datacubes only)
P
P
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2001-2011

March 2014
  • 2013, preliminary
  • 2012, revised
  • 2003-2011, final
P
O
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2012-13

(a) The geographical levels released under ASGS include SA2, SA3, SA4, GCCSA, LGA and Remoteness Area.
(b) The geographical levels released under ASGC include SLA, LGA, SD, SSD, Statistical District and Remoteness Area.


Table 4 shows the timing of product releases over the next few years for age/sex population estimates.


TABLE 4. RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR ERP, Age/Sex
Release dateReference year, version
ASGS(a)
ASGC(b)
Product (cat. no. 3235.0)

31 August 2012
  • 2007-2011, rebased
  • 2001-2006, final
P
P
Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011

August 2013
  • 2012, preliminary
  • 2007-2011, final
P
O
Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2012

August 2013
  • 2001-2011, final (Excel & SuperTable datacubes only)
P
P
Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2001-2011

August 2014
  • 2013, preliminary
  • 2012, revised
  • 2008-2011, final
P
O
Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2013

(a) The geographical levels released under ASGS include SA2, SA3, SA4, GCCSA and LGA.
(b) The geographical levels released under ASGC include SLA, LGA, SD and SSD.



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