3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2017 Quality Declaration 
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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY


ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE - YEAR ENDING 31 MARCH 2017


AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 March 2017 was 24,511,800 people. This is an increase of 389,100 people since 31 March 2016 and 126,100 people since 31 December 2016.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 March 2017 was 1.6%.

Graph Image for Annual population growth rate, Australia (a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Annual growth rate calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) All data to 30 June 2011 is final. Estimates for September 2011 to June 2016 have a status of preliminary rebased. Estimates thereafter are preliminary.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, March quarter 2017




COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population is comprised of: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths), net overseas migration (NOM) and intercensal difference. Intercensal difference has been calculated in the preliminary rebasing process.

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 March 2017 was higher from NOM (59.6%) than from natural increase (36.6%). The remainder is due to intercensal difference.

Graph Image for Components of annual population growth (a)(b), Australia

Footnote(s): (a) Annual components calculated at the end of each quarter. (b) For further information on each component of population change, see the Explanatory Notes.

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, March quarter 2017


Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2017 was 142,400 people, a decrease of 5.8%, or 8,800 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2016 (151,300 people).

Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 March 2017 (302,600 births) decreased by 6,300 births from the year ended 31 March 2016 (308,900 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 March 2017 (160,100 deaths) increased by 2,500 deaths from the year ended 31 March 2016 (157,600 deaths).


Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 March 2017, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 231,900 people. This was 26.9% (49,100 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 March 2016 (182,800 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 11.4% (55,100 people) between the years ended 31 March 2016 (485,100 people) and 31 March 2017 (540,300 people).

NOM departures increased by 2.0% (6,000 people) between the years ended 31 March 2016 (302,300 people) and 31 March 2017 (308,400 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the March quarter 2017 (86,600 people) was 36.0% (22,900 people) higher than the March quarter 2016 (63,700 people).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 31 March 2017 was as follows:
  • New South Wales 7,837,700;
  • Victoria 6,290,700;
  • Queensland 4,907,600;
  • South Australia 1,721,000;
  • Western Australia 2,576,000;
  • Tasmania 520,100;
  • Northern Territory 245,000; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 409,100.

Positive population growth occurred in all states and territories in the year ended 31 March 2017. Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.4%. The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.1%.


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration. Growth estimates prior to 30 September 2016 includes another component, intercensal difference, which has been calculated in the preliminary rebasing process. For more information on intercensal difference see Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2016 (cat. no. 3101.0) Feature article: Rebasing of Australia's Population Estimates using the 2016 Census.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 March 2017, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 March 2017, natural increase was the major contributor to population change in Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. NOM was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. A net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory.

Net interstate migration gains occurred in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. All other states and territories recorded net interstate migration losses.

Graph Image for Components of population change, States and territories

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2017




Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 31 March 2017 decreased in all states and territories.

The largest percentage decreases were recorded in New South Wales, decreasing by 4.2% (4,100 births) and the Australian Capital Territory, decreasing by 2.3% (100 births). These were followed by South Australia (1.9%), Victoria (1.8%), the Northern Territory (0.7%), Queensland (0.4%), Western Australia (0.3%) and Tasmania (0.1%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 March 2017 increased in all states and territories except the Northern Territory (down 6.2%) and New South Wales (down 0.7%).

The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 14.3% (300 deaths). This was followed by Western Australia (3.9%), Victoria (2.9%), Queensland (2.4%), Tasmania (1.7%) and South Australia (1.1%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see Explanatory Notes 10-11).


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 31 March 2017. Compared with the previous year, NOM increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 4.3%). The largest percentage increase in NOM was recorded in New South Wales at 29.7% (21,400 people). This was followed by Victoria which increased by 27.7% (18,100 people), Tasmania by 24.6% (300 people) and the Northern Territory which increased by 22.0% (by 200 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 31 March 2017 increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 2.1%) and the Northern Territory (down 0.9%). The largest percentage increase in NOM arrivals was recorded in Victoria at 15.7% (21,500 people). This was followed by New South Wales (up 15.2%), Tasmania (up 11.9%), Queensland (up 8.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 7.8%) and South Australia (up 4.0%). For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 31 March 2017 increased in Tasmania (up 7.0%), Victoria (up 4.8%), New South Wales (up 4.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 4.4%) and South Australia (up 3.0%). The largest percentage decrease was recorded in the Northern Territory at 3.8%. This was followed by Queensland (down 3.2%) and Western Australia (down 1.4%). For more information, see table 16.


Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 31 March 2017, Victoria, Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania recorded net interstate migration gains. Victoria continued a recent trend of having the highest net gain with 18,600 people, up from 14,500 people in the year ended 31 March 2016. This was followed by Queensland (15,700 people), the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania (both 700 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (13,900 people), Western Australia (11,800), South Australia (6,500 people) and the Northern Territory (3,500 people). For more information, see table 17.

Graph Image for Interstate migration, Arrivals, departures and net

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, March quarter 2017