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6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Jul 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/08/2004   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised. This revision is a combined result of the concurrent seasonal adjustment process and the application of surrogates of the Henderson average to the seasonally adjusted series (see paragraphs 18 to 24 of Explanatory Notes).


The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate. The revisions in the scenarios below are only due to the use of surrogates of the Henderson average, as the impact of revision of the seasonally adjusted estimates can not be estimated in advance.


(1) The August seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the July estimate by:

    • 0.27% for employment
    • 1.80% for the unemployment rate

(2) The August seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the July estimate by:
    • 0.27% for employment
    • 1.80% for the unemployment rate

The percentage changes of 0.27% and 1.80% were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively.


Employment

Graph: What if Employed Persons

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
Trend as published
(1) 9693.0 i.e. rises by 0.27%
(2) 9640.8 i.e. falls by 0.27%

2004
April
9,643.8
9,643.8
9,644.7
May
9,657.2
9,657.4
9,655.1
June
9,666.3
9,667.6
9,659.9
July
9,672.2
9,675.6
9,661.0


Unemployment Rate

Graph: What if Unemployment Rate

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
Trend as published
(1) 5.8 i.e. rises by 1.80%
(2) 5.6 i.e. falls by 1.80%

2004
April
5.6
5.6
5.6
May
5.6
5.6
5.6
June
5.6
5.6
5.6
July
5.6
5.6
5.6



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