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JUNE QTR KEY FIGURES
JUNE QTR KEY POINTS
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
POPULATION GROWTH RATES
Estimated resident population (ERP) data in this publication are based on the 2001 Census of Population and Housing (2001 census). Exceptions are tables 8 (excluding 2001 estimates), 17, 18 and 19 which are still based on the 1996 Census of Population and Housing (1996 census).
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
ERP DATA STATUS
At any point in time this publication contains final, revised and preliminary ERP data. The status of the ERP data included in this issue is as follows:-
DATA NOT YET AVAILABLE
Data not yet available in this issue are as follows:-
The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at June 2003 was 19,881,500 persons, an increase of 240,500 since June 2002 and 53,800 since March 2003. The national growth rate during the 12 months ended June 2003 was 1.2%, the same as the growth rate for the previous 12 months.
For the 12 months ended June 2003 Australia's population growth rate (1.2%) was the same as the world's population growth rate. When compared with selected countries it was the same as Hong Kong (1.2%), comparable with New Zealand (1.1%), higher than Japan and Germany (each 0.1%) and lower than Singapore (3.5%).
In figures provided by the US Bureau of the Census (International Data Base) for 227 countries, arranged from highest to lowest size, Australia's population ranked 52nd in the year 2003 and is projected to rank 65th in 2050.
POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK, Selected countries
Sources: ABS for Australian estimated and projected populations (Series B); US Bureau of the Census, International Data Base for selected countries and world estimated and projected populations and all rankings.
COMPONENTS OF AUSTRALIA'S POPULATION CHANGE
Natural increase is the number of births minus the number of deaths recorded in a period.
For the year ended June 2003 natural increase was 115,200 persons, a decrease of 2,000 persons (2%) on the number recorded in the year ended June 2002 (117,200). The number of births in the year ended June 2003 (248,000) increased by less than 1% when compared with the previous 12 months (247,400). The number of deaths increased by 2% over the same period from 130,300 in 2002 to 132,800 in 2003.
Net overseas migration
Overseas migration is made up of both people who are settling in Australia (or settling overseas) on a permanent basis as well as people who are temporarily in Australia (or overseas) for more than twelve months. It includes New Zealanders and others who do have permanent visas to migrate to Australia as well as people who are leaving Australia. Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is therefore not recommended for use as a direct measure of the Australian Government's migration and humanitarian programs (see http://www.immi.gov.au/statistics/).
From September quarter 2001 onwards, the ABS has implemented a new method of calculating NOM based on linking actual travel movements and measuring actual length of stay in, or absence from, Australia. As there needs to be an accumulation of twelve months data to ascertain actual travel movements for the purpose of establishing usual residence, the preliminary NOM for 2002-03 has been modelled based on the stated intentions on passenger cards using the actual outcomes from 2001-02. It is expected that this method will improve as more data become available and the modelling technique is refined.
To be counted as part of the Australian population, a person needs to be in Australia for twelve months or more (this has been applied as an unbroken period). Increasing mobility of some segments of the overseas visitor population and the application of the twelve month rule mean that some people can spend a considerable amount of time in Australia and still not be counted as part of the Australian population as they are never in Australia for more than twelve months at a time. For example, many overseas students studying in Australia who travel home each year for holidays, and temporary business visa holders who travel regularly into or out of Australia are in this category. Similarly, Australians living mainly overseas but who visit Australia on a regular basis may still be counted as part of the Australian population even though they live most of each year overseas. Whilst a continuous period of 12 months has been used in measuring NOM to date, the ABS proposes to investigate and consult on the implications of adopting alternative conceptual definitions.
The presentation of overseas migration statistics in this publication follows the established format used in previous releases. However, this is being reviewed for the forthcoming issues.
STATE/TERRITORY DISTRIBUTION OF NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION
The state/territory distribution of permanent migration or long-term visitors is determined based on information reported on arrival or departure from Australia.
Where a traveller stated an intention to stay less than twelve months but has stayed longer and not yet departed, the ABS has used information of actual state/territory of stay distribution from short-term visitors departing Australia who were in Australia between six and twelve months. Therefore, the state/territory distributions of NOM need to be treated with caution and are subject to revision. It is expected that these estimates will improve as investigations are undertaken over financial years as actual data on state/territory of stay becomes available for this segment of the overseas visitor population when they leave Australia.
More information on the new method of measuring NOM and the method for distributing NOM to states and territories can be found in the feature article: Overseas Migration: People Whose Intended Length of Stay is Different From Their Actual Length of Stay and in the Demography Working Paper 2003/5-Net Overseas Migration: Adjusting for Actual Duration of Stay or Absence on this web site.
Preliminary net overseas migration was 125,300 persons in the year ended June 2003, 14,700 higher than in the year ended June 2002 (110,600).
On a quarterly basis, preliminary net overseas migration in June quarter 2003 (22,100) exceeded June quarter 2002 (15,300) by 6,800 persons and was lower than March quarter 2002 (41,600) by 19,600 persons.
STATES AND TERRITORIES
The population of Australia's states and territories at June 2003 was as follows: New South Wales 6,686,600, Victoria 4,917,400, Queensland 3,796,800, South Australia 1,527,400, Western Australia 1,952,300, Tasmania 477,100, Northern Territory 198,400 and the Australian Capital Territory 322,900.
With the exception of the Northern Territory all states and the Australian Capital Territory recorded positive growth in the year ended June 2003. Queensland recorded the highest growth (2.3%) followed by Western Australia (1.4%), Victoria (1.2%), Tasmania (0.9%), New South Wales (0.8%), South Australia (0.6%) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.4%). The Northern Territory recorded a loss (-0.2%). The Northern Territory loss was mainly due to increased interstate migration losses (-3,400).
All states and the Northern Territory recorded positive growth in June quarter 2003. The highest gain was recorded by Queensland (0.6%) and the lowest by South Australia (0.1%). The Australian Capital Territory experienced little change.
In the year ended June 2003 Queensland and Tasmania recorded net interstate migration gains, Victoria recorded little change and the remaining states and territories recorded losses. Queensland had a gain of 39,200 persons while Tasmania gained 1,900 persons. New South Wales lost the highest number of persons (-31,800) followed by the Northern Territory (-3,400), Western Australia (-2,800), the Australian Capital Territory (-1,600) and South Australia (-1,500).
For June quarter 2003 only Queensland and Tasmania had positive growth. Victoria joined the remaining states and territories in recording losses in net interstate migration.
TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE, Summary(a)
(a) See Explanatory Notes for concepts used and the Glossary for definitions of terms used. Includes Other Territories from September 1993 - see paragraph 2 of the Explanatory Notes.
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