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2 Following the 1992 amendments to the Acts Interpretation Act to include the Indian Ocean Territories of Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands as part of geographic Australia, population estimates commencing from September quarter 1993 include estimates for these two territories. To reflect this change, another category of the state and territory level has been created, known as Other Territories. Other Territories include Jervis Bay Territory, previously included with the Australian Capital Territory, as well as Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, previously excluded from population estimates for Australia. Data for Other Territories, while not detailed separately, are included in Australia totals commencing from September quarter 1993.
4 The estimated resident population is an estimate of the Australian population obtained by adding to the estimated population at the beginning of each period the components of natural increase (on a usual residence basis) and net overseas migration. For the states and territories, account is also taken of estimated interstate movements involving a change of usual residence. Estimates of the resident population are based on census counts by place of usual residence, to which are added the estimated net census undercount and Australian residents estimated to have been temporarily overseas at the time of the census. Overseas visitors in Australia are excluded from this calculation.
5 After each census (at 30 June of the census year), estimates for the preceding intercensal period are revised by incorporating an additional adjustment (intercensal discrepancy) to ensure that the total intercensal increase agrees with the difference between the estimated resident populations at the two 30 June dates in the respective census years.
Natural increase: births and deaths
6 In this publication births and deaths data are presented by state and territory of usual residence. For preliminary estimates, births and deaths by quarter of registration are used as a proxy for quarter of occurrence. For revised estimates a factor has been applied to the number of occurrences to allow for those occurrences which are yet to be registered. For final estimates after 30 June 1991 year/quarter of occurrence data are used. The births and deaths data in the this publication are shown by year of occurrence for revised and final data and year/quarter of registration for preliminary data which may affect comparison within relevant tables.
Net overseas migration
7 Figures are based on net permanent and long-term overseas movements with state and territory not stated allocated pro rata. Short-term movements are excluded. The estimates from July 1976 to June 1997, inclusive and from July 2001 onwards include an adjustment for the net effect of category jumping. This adjustment is necessary because net permanent and long-term migration figures can be affected by changes in travel intentions from short-term to permanent/long-term or vice versa. For example, an Australian resident departing for a short-term visit overseas (stating that he/she intends to stay abroad for less than 12 months) in fact stays 12 or more months, thereby changing his/her travel category from short-term to long-term. Prior to December quarter 1989, adjustments for category jumping were only made to revised population estimates. From June 1990 these adjustments were also included in preliminary estimates. However, due to a change in passenger card and systems in July 1998 (see Explanatory Note 14) the estimation of category jumping from July 1997 to June 2001, inclusive was suspended and set to zero. For further details see Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods, in the Statistical Concepts Library and Demography Working Paper 2003/5, Net Overseas Migration: Adjusting for Actual Duration of Stay or Absence on this site.
Net interstate migration
8 Estimates of interstate migration since June 1986 have been derived from latest census data on interstate movement in the preceding one year and unidentified information on interstate changes of address advised to the Health Insurance Commission in the process of administering Medicare.
RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH
9 The average annual growth rate, r, is calculated as a percentage using the formula:
where Po is the population at the start of the period, Pn is the population at the end of the period and n is the length of the period between Pn and Po in years.
EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATES OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION
10 Estimates of the Indigenous population are experimental in that the standard approach to population estimation is not possible because satisfactory data on births, deaths and internal migration are not generally available. Furthermore, there is significant intercensal volatility in census counts of the Indigenous population, thus adding to the problem of estimating the true Indigenous population. This volatility can in part be attributed to changes in the propensity of persons to identify as being of Indigenous origin. As a result, a method based on the use of life tables is used to produce time series data. For further details see Experimental Estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population (cat. no. 3230.0).
EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTIONS OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION
11 Experimental estimates of the Indigenous population as at 30 June 1996 are used as the base population for projections of the Indigenous population to 30 June 2006. A low and a high projection series have been generated, and respectively imply a low and high overall growth rate of the Indigenous population. The low series uses a nil change in propensity to identify assumption based on the premise that the Indigenous population (as recorded in the 1996 census) will only change as a result of natural increase. The high series uses a change in propensity to identify assumption based on the increase in the Indigenous population observed between the 1991 and 1996 censuses which cannot be attributed to natural increase. For further details see Experimental Projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population (cat. no. 3231.0).
ESTIMATED RESIDENT HOUSEHOLDS
12 Estimates of households are based on the estimated resident population series, to which propensities to form households are applied. These propensities were estimated from the Census of Population and Housing, and updated using the monthly Labour Force Survey. A detailed description of the method used to produce household estimates is contained in Household Estimates 1986, 1991-94 (cat. no. 3229.0).
OVERSEAS ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES ESTIMATION METHOD
13 Overseas arrival and departure statistics are derived from a combination of full enumeration and sampling. All permanent movements and all movements with a duration of stay of one year or more are fully enumerated and processed. All movements with a duration of stay of less than one year are sampled. Statistics relating to these movements are therefore estimates which may differ from statistics which would have been obtained if details of all these movements had been processed.
14 From July 1998 the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA) is able to determine the actual length of stay for departing overseas visitors and arriving Australian residents which was previously collected from information on intended length of stay supplied on the arrival or departure card by the passenger. This new method has resulted in a change in data distribution with the number of passengers staying for one year exactly declining significantly.
15 Population projections presented in this publication are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of components of population change - births, deaths and migration - were to hold for the next 50-100 years.
16 The ERP at June 2002 is the base for the projections series. The three series published in this publication and their assumptions are as follows:
Series B - assumes that the TFR will fall to 1.6 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve each year, though at a declining rate, and will reach 84.2 years for males and 87.7 year for females in 2050-51, NOM of 100,000 per year from 2005-06 through to 2050-51, and medium flows of interstate migration.
Series C - assumes that the TFR will fall to 1.4 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve each year, though at a declining rate, and will reach 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females in 2050-51, NOM of 70,000 per year from 2005-06 through to 2050-51, and small flows of interstate migration.
For additional series and information (e.g. age, sex, states/territories and capital cities/balances of state) see Population Projections, Australia, 2002-2101 (cat. no. 3222.0).
17 In this publication population estimates and their components have sometimes been rounded to the nearest hundred. Neither rounded figures nor unrounded figures should be assumed to be accurate to the last digit shown.
18 Where figures have been rounded, discrepancies may occur between sums of component items and totals.
19 Other ABS products which may be of interest to users include:
Australian Demographic Trends, cat. no. 3102.0
Australian Historical Population Statistics, cat. no. 3105.0.65.001
Births, Australia, cat. no. 3301.0
Deaths, Australia, cat. no. 3302.0
Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods
Demography, cat. no. 3311.1 - 8 - state and territory specific publications
Estimated Resident Population by Country of Birth, Age and Sex, cat. no. 3221.0 - issued annually to 1994
Experimental Estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population, cat. no. 3230.0
Experimental Projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population, 1996 to 2006, cat. no. 3231.0
Household Estimates, Australia, cat. no. 3229.0
Interstate Arrivals and Departures - from September quarter 1986, Dataset.
Information Paper: Census of Population and Housing, Data Quality - Undercount, Australia, 2001, cat. no. 2940.0
Marriages and Divorces, Australia, cat. no. 3310.0 - includes data on the marital status of the estimated resident population of Australia
Migration, Australia, cat. no. 3412.0 - includes data on the country of birth of the estimated resident population of Australia
Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, cat. no. 3401.0 - issued monthly
Population by Age and Sex: Australian States and Territories, cat. no. 3201.0
Population Projections, Australia, cat. no. 3222.0
Underlying Cause of Death by Sex and Age at Death, state of Usual Residence and ICD10
20 As well as the statistics included in this and related publications, the ABS may have other relevant data available on request. Inquiries should be made to the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.
21 AusStats is a web based information service which provides ABS full standard product range online. It also includes companion data in multidimensional datasets in SuperTABLE format, and time series spreadsheets.
22 Current publications and other products released by the ABS are listed in the Catalogue of Publications and Products, Australia (cat. no. 1101.0). The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice (cat. no. 1105.0) which details products to be released in the week ahead.
23 Statistics of overseas arrivals and departures and related data are also published regularly by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (see that Department’s quarterly publication, Immigration Update) and by the Bureau of Tourism Research (on international travel and tourism).
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