6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Oct 2016 Quality Declaration
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/11/2016
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Over the past 12 months, trend employment increased by 108,100 (or 0.9 per cent), which is around half the size of the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (1.8 per cent). Over the same 12 month period the trend employment to population ratio, which is a measure of how employed the population over 15 years is, decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 60.9 per cent.
In monthly terms, the trend employment decrease of 1,000 persons between September and October 2016 represents a decline of 0.01 per cent, remaining below the monthly average growth rate over the past 20 years of 0.15 per cent. It is also the first decrease in trend employment since November 2013, and follows a period of sustained slowing of employment growth since May 2016.
Trend full-time employment decreased by 9,500 persons in October, continuing the decline seen throughout 2016. Full-time employment has fallen by 69,900 persons since December 2015. In comparison, part-time employment has increased by 132,700 persons over the same period, with its share of employment increasing from 31.1 per cent to 32.0 per cent.
Despite the declining trend employment, the trend estimate of monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 3.2 million hours in October 2016, to 1,668.0 million hours. This indicates that there have been compositional changes in hours of work over 2016.
The trend unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.6 per cent in October 2016. Over the past year, the unemployment rate has decreased by 0.4 percentage points, with unemployment decreasing by 44,800 persons. The quarterly underemployment rate will be available in the next issue, November 2016.
The trend participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 64.5 per cent. Over the past year, the labour force, which includes both employed and unemployed persons, increased by 63,200 persons. This was below the 292,700 increase in the total Civilian Population aged 15 years and over, with the participation rate decreasing 0.6 percentage points, down from 65.1 per cent.
The trend participation rate for 15-64 year olds, which controls (though not entirely) for the effects of an ageing population in the older age groups, also showed a decline of 0.1 percentage points, down to 76.7 per cent. It also similarly decreased over the year to October 2016, down 0.5 percentage points, from 77.2 per cent. Over the year, the 15-64 year old labour force increased by 56,200, while the Civilian Population increased by 173,500.
The trend series smooths the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 9,800 persons from September to October 2016. Full-time employment increased by 41,500 persons, while part-time employment decreased by 31,700 persons. These movements in part reflect offsetting movements to the larger compositional movements in September, and, when considered together, highlight the continuing pattern in the trend series. Since December 2015, seasonally adjusted full-time employment has decreased by 89,900 persons, while part-time employment has increased by 133,000 persons.
Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 14.3 million hours in October 2016, to 1,674.8 million hours.
The seasonally adjusted employment to population ratio remained steady at 60.8 per cent in October 2016.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady in October 2016 at 5.6 per cent, and the labour force participation rate was also unchanged at 64.4 per cent.
STATE AND TERRITORY ESTIMATES
The largest increase in trend employment in October 2016 was in Victoria (up 6,800 persons). The larger decreases were in Queensland (down 5,400), Western Australia (down 2,700 persons) and New South Wales (down 1,900).
In percentage terms, Victoria had the strongest growth (0.2 per cent). The decreases in employment in Queensland and Western Australia equate to around a 0.2 per cent decrease for both states.
The trend unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points in New South Wales, Queensland and Australian Capital Territory, while in Western Australia the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points.
The largest trend participation rate increases were in Victoria and the Northern Territory (up 0.1 percentage points). The largest decrease was in Queensland (0.3 percentage points), followed by New South Wales, Western Australia and Australian Capital Territory, which all decreased by 0.1 percentage points.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
In seasonally adjusted terms, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia had increases in employment in October 2016. The largest employment increase was in Victoria (up 20,500 persons). The largest decreases was in Queensland (down 16,900 persons).
There were decreases in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Queensland (down 0.4 percentage points), Tasmania (down 0.3 percentage points), South Australia (down 0.2 percentage points) and Victoria (down 0.1 percentage points). The unemployment rate increased in Western Australia (up 0.4 percentage points).
Seasonally adjusted participation rates increased in Western Australia (up 0.6 percentage points), Victoria (up 0.3 percentage points) and South Australia (up 0.1 percentage points). There were declines in Tasmania (down 1.0 percentage points), Queensland (down 0.8 percentage points) and New South Wales (down 0.2 percentage points).
Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the two territories.
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