6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Oct 2015 Quality Declaration
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/11/2015
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The trend unemployment rate has been at 6.1 per cent since March 2015.
Since October 2014, trend employment has increased by 260,500 persons, while the civilian population aged 15 years and over grew by 288,200 persons over the same period. This is reflected in an increase in the trend employment to population ratio over the year from 60.6 per cent to 61.1 per cent. The trend unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the year, decreasing from 6.2 per cent to 6.1 per cent.
The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2015 was 5.9 per cent (down 0.3 percentage points) and the labour force participation rate was 65.0 per cent (up 0.1 percentage points).
Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 58,600 persons in October 2015. Full-time employment increased by 40,000 persons to 8,171,600 while part-time employment increased by 18,600 to 3,666,600 persons in October 2015. The increase in total employment resulted from:
Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 19.1 million hours in October 2015 to 1,660.4 million hours.
The seasonally adjusted employment to population ratio increased 0.2 percentage points (in unrounded terms) to 61.2% in October 2015.
The largest absolute increase in seasonally adjusted employment was in Victoria (up 26,100 persons). This was a strong but not unprecedented movement, with 12 larger movements in absolute terms over the life of the series including the most recent in December 2014 (up 30,300 persons). In trend terms, employment in Victoria increased by 3,400 persons.
The largest increase in the seasonally adjusted participation rate was in Western Australia (up 0.9 percentage points, following a 0.7 percentage point decrease between August and September 2015). In trend terms, the increase was 0.1 percentage points, continuing a relatively steady increase in the participation rate in Western Australia from 68.6 per cent in May 2015 to 68.9 per cent in October 2015.
The largest decrease in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was in Victoria (down 0.7 percentage points, following a 0.2 percentage point increase between August and September 2015, based on unrounded estimates). The trend unemployment rate in Victoria remained at 6.0 per cent (in rounded terms).
Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories and the ABS recommends using trend estimates to analyse the underlying behaviour of the series.
Gross flows (Data Cube GM1) highlight the change in labour force status of individuals between last month and this month. Gross flows are derived from the matched part of the sample that is common between two consecutive months. After taking account of sample rotation and varying non-response each month, this is approximately 80% of the sample. However, the level and movement estimates produced from the gross flows will not necessarily represent 80% of the level and movement estimates in a given month from the whole sample. Despite this limitation, analysis of the gross flows data can provide an indication, in original terms, of underlying movements in the labour market.
In original terms between September and October 2015 the number of persons employed increased by 92,700 with gross flows showing a net increase of 48,600. The increase shown in the gross flows comprised:
In original terms between September and October 2015 the number of persons unemployed decreased by 38,200 with gross flows showing a net decrease of 35,400. The decrease shown in the gross flows comprised:
As the gross flows data are presented in original terms they are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted and trend data discussed elsewhere in the commentary.
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