LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JUNE 2019
Australia's trend estimate of employment increased by 26,300 persons in June 2019, with:
§ the number of unemployed persons increasing by 4,700 persons;
§ the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.2%;
§ the underemployment rate remaining steady at 8.3%;
§ the underutilisation rate remaining steady at 13.5%;
§ the participation rate increasing by 0.1 pts to 66.0%; and
§ the employment to population ratio remaining steady at 62.5%.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by 328,700 persons (or 2.6%), which was above the average annual growth rate over the past 20 years of 2.0%. Over the same 12 month period the trend employment to population ratio, which is a measure of how employed the population (aged 15 years and over) is, increased by 0.5 percentage points (pts) to 62.5%.
Trend employment increased by 26,300 persons between May and June 2019. This represents an increase of 0.20%, which was higher than the monthly average growth rate over the past 20 years of 0.17%.
Underpinning these net changes in employment is extensive dynamic change, which occurs each month in the labour market. In recent months there has generally been considerably more than 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment. There is also further dynamic change in the hours that people work, which results in changes in the full-time and part-time composition of employment.
Trend full-time employment increased by 15,000 persons between May and June 2019, and part-time employment increased by 11,300 persons. Compared to a year ago, there are 248,900 more persons employed full-time and 79,900 more persons employed part-time. This compositional shift led to a decrease in the part-time share of employment over the past 12 months, from 31.7% to 31.5%.
The trend estimate of monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 0.6 million hours (0.0%) in June 2019 to 1,778.0 million hours. Monthly hours worked increased by 2.0% over the past year, which was below the increase in employed persons (2.6%). The average hours worked per employed person was 138.1 hours per month, or around 31.8 hours per week.
The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in June 2019. The number of unemployed persons increased by 4,700 to 701,700 persons. Over the past year, the trend unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 pts, with the number of unemployed decreasing by 11,600 persons.
The trend participation rate increased by 0.1 pts to 66.0% in June 2019, and was 0.4 pts higher than in June 2018. The female and male participation rates both increased in June 2019 by 0.1 pts to 60.9% and 71.2% respectively.
The labour force includes the total number of employed and unemployed persons. Over the past year, the labour force increased by 317,100 persons (2.4%). This was above the rate of increase for the total Civilian Population aged 15 years and over (357,900 persons, or 1.8%).
The trend participation rate for 15-64 year olds, which controls (in part) for the effects of an aging population remained steady at 78.4%. The gap between male and female participation rates in this age range is less than 10 pts at 83.2% and 73.7% respectively, continuing the long term convergence of male and female participation.
The trend participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) remained steady at 68.0%. The unemployment rate for this group increased by 0.1 pts to 12.0% in June 2019 and has increased by 0.5% since June last year.
The trend series smooths the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 500 persons in June 2019 to 12,871,700 persons. The underlying composition of the net change was an increase of 21,100 persons in full-time employment and a decrease of 20,600 persons in part-time employment. Since June 2018, full-time employment has increased by 246,500 persons, while part-time employment increased by 49,800 persons.
Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 0.1 million hours in June to 1,774.0 million hours.
The seasonally adjusted employment to population ratio decreased by 0.1 pts to 62.5% in June 2019, and increased by 0.4 pts from the same time last year.
GRAPH 1. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO, PERSONS, June 2009 to June 2019
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in June 2019. The participation rate remained steady at 66.0%.
STATE AND TERRITORY ESTIMATES
In June 2019, increases in trend employment were observed in all states and territories except the Northern Territory which recorded no movement. The largest increases were recorded in New South Wales (up 12,800 persons), Victoria (up 6,900 persons), Western Australia (up 5,000 persons) and Queensland (up 3,100 persons).
Over the past year, increases in employment were observed in all states and territories except Tasmania (down 2,900 persons) and the Northern Territory (down 9,100 persons). The largest increases were in New South Wales (up 139,100 persons), Victoria (up 119,700 persons) and Queensland (up 40,400 persons). The highest annual employment growth rates were in Victoria at 3.6%, followed by New South Wales at 3.5%, and the Australian Capital Territory at 1.9%.
Year-on-year growth in trend employment was above the 20 year average in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory.
The monthly trend unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts in Queensland and decreased by 0.1 pts in Western Australia. The monthly trend unemployment rate remained unchanged in all other states and territories.
The monthly trend participation rate increased by 0.3 pts in the Australian Capital Territory (70.4%), 0.2 pts in New South Wales (65.9%) and by 0.1 pts in Queensland (65.8%) and Western Australia (68.3%). The Northern Territory recorded the only decrease (down 0.4 pts to 71.0%) with all other states remaining steady.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest decreases in employment were recorded in New South Wales (down 17,400 persons), followed by Queensland (down 8,200 persons), South Australia (down 4,700 persons) and Victoria (down 4,100 persons). The only increase was in Western Australia (up 13,800 persons).
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in Tasmania (up 0.4 pts to 6.8%), Victoria (up 0.2 pts to 4.8%), Queensland (up 0.2 pts to 6.5%) and South Australia (up 0.2 to 5.9%). Western Australia (down 0.5 pts to 5.8%) recorded the only decrease in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate with New South Wales recording no change.
The largest increase in the seasonally adjusted participation rate was in Western Australia (up 0.3 pts to 68.5%). The seasonally adjusted participation rate decreased in New South Wales (down 0.3 pts to 65.9%), South Australia (down to 0.2 pts to 63.2%), Victoria (down 0.1 pts to 66.1%) and Queensland (down 0.1 pts to 65.7%).
Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the two territories.
TABLE 1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, STATES AND TERRITORIES
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated.
|New South Wales|
|Australian Capital Territory|
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