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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2015 December 153 287 -0.2 153 287 -0.2 153 287 -0.2 2016 March 153 327 0.0 153 221 0.0 153 370 0.1 June 153 656 0.2 153 689 0.3 153 638 0.2 September 154 209 0.4 154 583 0.6 153 868 0.1

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2015 December 62 042 -2.1 62 042 -2.1 62 042 -2.1 2016 March 61 707 -0.5 61 453 -0.9 61 785 -0.4 June 62 467 1.2 62 547 1.8 62 432 1.0 September 63 906 2.3 64 588 3.3 62 992 0.9